Every offseason comes with its own tally of wins and losses. It sweeps in like a typhoon after each confetti shower, and while the additions often make the waves and headlines, the upside of a team’s next campaign can just as quickly whisk out of the door behind the footsteps of its most significant departure. The strength of the foundation determines whether the structure holds or whether the front office is left sifting through the rubble and picking up the pieces. Few teams are immune from the process, and in the Ravens’ case, there is arguably no bigger name than Zachary Orr. In one of the league’s unlikeliest turn of events from this past year, Orr found his way into a starting role after successfully mounting an uphill battle against the expectations of his UDFA label. At 24, he led the team in total tackles and solo tackles by a wide margin, one of the highest in the NFL in both categories, and was voted 2nd Team All-Pro in 15 starts. Scheduled for a serious pay raise from the only team he’s ever known, his sudden then-retirement instantly sent the team searching for other options. Although his current status remains in limbo given his need for medical clearance, it appears the plan has been unaltered since we’ve begun life without Orr. In every such scenario, to measure the loss, we must quantify it. To do that, the key questions to ask are two-fold: How big is the loss, and can it be overcome?
The answer to the first question is likely the most surprising. That is because while Orr racked up top-tier caliber numbers, the tape itself often didn’t correlate with the stat-line production, especially when it came to the running game. Take the Pittsburgh game in Week 16. It featured strength vs. strength, with one of the league’s best running backs facing off against one of the best run defenses. Statistically speaking, it was a rock solid game, with 8 total tackles while playing 85% of the snaps. Even using PFF’s raw data, he finished with the 3rd highest run stop percentage among all LBs that week with 3 stops, and the 9th most tackles in the running game with 5. Both of those are impressive on paper, on 16 snaps nonetheless. But becoming acquainted with each snap quickly sours the perception. Here are all of his plays in order:
Q1, 12:29.....Q1, 8:03.....Q1, 5:50
Q2, 14:05.....Q2, 13:30.....Q2, 12:47.....Q2, 7:04.....Q2, 5:47.....Q2, 4:27
Q3, 12:53.....Q3, 12:16.....Q3, 1:28
Q4, 14:18.....Q4, 11:48.....Q4, 10:05.....Q4, 9:26
I’d offer an in-depth breakdown, but it may not be necessary considering that the struggles are fairly evident. Apart from a couple of plays, he was routinely hampered due to either wasted footwork, over-pursuing and failing to redirect, or being unable to stack and shed blockers. It's somewhat unsurprising in retrospect that we allowed a higher YPC with Orr on the field in that contest. Is this his best game of the season? Certainly not. It’s fair to mention that C.J. Mosley didn’t have his best performance either. And it doesn’t mean that Orr was an outright liability in every contest as a run defender. Unfortunately, however, the issues in that department were not a rarity. For example, in the New England game, of his 23 snaps against the run, he again finished with the 9th most tackles in the league among all LBs. But on tape, I counted over a dozen plays wherein he was successfully washed out of the lane by a single blocker. He was also subsequently subbed out for Albert McClellan on all of the following 3rd/4th & 1 plays after guessing the wrong gap on the opponents’ first 3rd and 1. That’s where we run into an issue of reality vs. perception. For anyone watching the games live, it’s entirely plausible to notice the positive plays made by Orr, couple them with the stat sheet validation, and feel confident in Orr as a difference maker, even an elite run defender, which all of us would hope for every Raven to be. That being said, when focusing on the individual play throughout the entirety of each review, it often felt that Orr’s performance left quite a bit to be desired, especially given the gaudy numbers. The plays between the numbers can often tell a completely different story, and this notion was on full display when evaluating Orr’s 2016 campaign. Even the plays where he was statistically involved weren't exempt from uncertainty of the actual individual impact on the play.
Truth be told, I’m uncertain if there was a single issue that I found to be significantly more problematic than others, but if I was forced to make a choice, I’d likely harp on his approach of taking on blockers. There are applicable several plays in the shots above that are arguably direct antitheses of how a linebacker is meant to engage their blocker. The one at 9:26 is a proper example of such. Despite having roughly four yards of room to accelerate after planting the back leg, Orr abandons any semblance of gained-momentum by freezing dead in his tracks in front of an advancing RG, David DeCastro, a full yard before contact. Both of Orr’s feet are parallel and ahead of his chest, meaning that his pad level is innately high and his lower body is wholly unanchored, and his arms are already extended to brace for impact (Link). Add in the fact that you’re basically predetermined to lose the battle in listed weight at 225 lbs, and from the standpoint of probability-of-success, it can very well be akin to attempting to push back an oncoming train from standstill. It essentially negates any advantages had in mobility and willfully allows the battle to be fought against the blocker's biggest strengths. In the games I’ve seen, Orr had a penchant for frequently slowing down before bracing for contact as a means of absorbing the blow. Here’s one of the better examples from the New England game (Link). A similar issue was also evident against ball-carriers as he would square up and breakdown well in advance, allowing wiggle room for cutbacks. It was more evident in coverage, where he allowed the 2nd most YAC among his position group, but it wasn’t exclusive to that facet given that he was credited with the 4th missed tackles against the run at 10. The latter number isn’t a perfect indicator given that blowing up the correct gap, missing the tackle but stunting the movement of the runner enough to allow other defenders to swarm can be a positive; however, given Orr’s struggles in shedding blockers, the misses likely came in one-on-one looks against ball-carriers.
All-in-all, while the loss of Orr appears to be an enormous one on the surface, i.e. losing the likes of Kelechi Osemele, the tape suggests that the hole left by his departure isn’t nearly as deep as it seems. In my eyes, it's one that we can definitely overcome. It helps that we have arguably one of the best young ILBs in the league in Mosley, who often barreled into lead blockers to create openings for his teammates to take undisrupted and unabated angles to the ball. The clean ups can for sure be valuable. But in the words of the ancient Tibetan philosopher Bartholomew Edward Scott, "Anybody can get [expletive] tackles. Making a tackle 5-10 yards down the field, that’s [expletive]." I don’t expect Orr's to be filled by a single defender given the pieces within the front seven, but of the ones with either significant or significantly expanded roles, the two major contributors to monitor are likely Tyus Bowser and Kamalei Correa. I mention Bowser, ironically our new No.54, despite him playing on the edge against Washington because of his plus ability in dropping back in space. Orr was among the Top 12 in the league in cover snaps per game among LBs, and I would expect most of the redistribution to be handed down to Bowser and Correa. I admittedly wasn’t overly high on the latter prior to the draft, having more of a 3rd-4th round grade on Correa as a prospect; but he dabbled at ILB in college more often than some realize, so the versatility was evident. Conversely, it’s also partly why I wouldn’t expect to see him occupy every lost coverage snap on his own, which is why having another versatile defender in Bowser is such a benefit. The overall defensive performance against Washington came with a collective sigh of relief. The unit has had a fair amount of turnover, with questions about the front seven after losing several starters from the year before. And I personally wish Zachary Orr all the best, with hopes that he resurfaces on another team and finds success in his career. That being said, if our level of effectiveness against an underrated offensive line is any indication, then perhaps the loss of Orr could already be behind us. In either case, I'm looking forward to seeing who steps up in his absence.
The answer to the first question is likely the most surprising. That is because while Orr racked up top-tier caliber numbers, the tape itself often didn’t correlate with the stat-line production, especially when it came to the running game. Take the Pittsburgh game in Week 16. It featured strength vs. strength, with one of the league’s best running backs facing off against one of the best run defenses. Statistically speaking, it was a rock solid game, with 8 total tackles while playing 85% of the snaps. Even using PFF’s raw data, he finished with the 3rd highest run stop percentage among all LBs that week with 3 stops, and the 9th most tackles in the running game with 5. Both of those are impressive on paper, on 16 snaps nonetheless. But becoming acquainted with each snap quickly sours the perception. Here are all of his plays in order:
Q1, 12:29.....Q1, 8:03.....Q1, 5:50
Q2, 14:05.....Q2, 13:30.....Q2, 12:47.....Q2, 7:04.....Q2, 5:47.....Q2, 4:27
Q3, 12:53.....Q3, 12:16.....Q3, 1:28
Q4, 14:18.....Q4, 11:48.....Q4, 10:05.....Q4, 9:26
I’d offer an in-depth breakdown, but it may not be necessary considering that the struggles are fairly evident. Apart from a couple of plays, he was routinely hampered due to either wasted footwork, over-pursuing and failing to redirect, or being unable to stack and shed blockers. It's somewhat unsurprising in retrospect that we allowed a higher YPC with Orr on the field in that contest. Is this his best game of the season? Certainly not. It’s fair to mention that C.J. Mosley didn’t have his best performance either. And it doesn’t mean that Orr was an outright liability in every contest as a run defender. Unfortunately, however, the issues in that department were not a rarity. For example, in the New England game, of his 23 snaps against the run, he again finished with the 9th most tackles in the league among all LBs. But on tape, I counted over a dozen plays wherein he was successfully washed out of the lane by a single blocker. He was also subsequently subbed out for Albert McClellan on all of the following 3rd/4th & 1 plays after guessing the wrong gap on the opponents’ first 3rd and 1. That’s where we run into an issue of reality vs. perception. For anyone watching the games live, it’s entirely plausible to notice the positive plays made by Orr, couple them with the stat sheet validation, and feel confident in Orr as a difference maker, even an elite run defender, which all of us would hope for every Raven to be. That being said, when focusing on the individual play throughout the entirety of each review, it often felt that Orr’s performance left quite a bit to be desired, especially given the gaudy numbers. The plays between the numbers can often tell a completely different story, and this notion was on full display when evaluating Orr’s 2016 campaign. Even the plays where he was statistically involved weren't exempt from uncertainty of the actual individual impact on the play.
Truth be told, I’m uncertain if there was a single issue that I found to be significantly more problematic than others, but if I was forced to make a choice, I’d likely harp on his approach of taking on blockers. There are applicable several plays in the shots above that are arguably direct antitheses of how a linebacker is meant to engage their blocker. The one at 9:26 is a proper example of such. Despite having roughly four yards of room to accelerate after planting the back leg, Orr abandons any semblance of gained-momentum by freezing dead in his tracks in front of an advancing RG, David DeCastro, a full yard before contact. Both of Orr’s feet are parallel and ahead of his chest, meaning that his pad level is innately high and his lower body is wholly unanchored, and his arms are already extended to brace for impact (Link). Add in the fact that you’re basically predetermined to lose the battle in listed weight at 225 lbs, and from the standpoint of probability-of-success, it can very well be akin to attempting to push back an oncoming train from standstill. It essentially negates any advantages had in mobility and willfully allows the battle to be fought against the blocker's biggest strengths. In the games I’ve seen, Orr had a penchant for frequently slowing down before bracing for contact as a means of absorbing the blow. Here’s one of the better examples from the New England game (Link). A similar issue was also evident against ball-carriers as he would square up and breakdown well in advance, allowing wiggle room for cutbacks. It was more evident in coverage, where he allowed the 2nd most YAC among his position group, but it wasn’t exclusive to that facet given that he was credited with the 4th missed tackles against the run at 10. The latter number isn’t a perfect indicator given that blowing up the correct gap, missing the tackle but stunting the movement of the runner enough to allow other defenders to swarm can be a positive; however, given Orr’s struggles in shedding blockers, the misses likely came in one-on-one looks against ball-carriers.
All-in-all, while the loss of Orr appears to be an enormous one on the surface, i.e. losing the likes of Kelechi Osemele, the tape suggests that the hole left by his departure isn’t nearly as deep as it seems. In my eyes, it's one that we can definitely overcome. It helps that we have arguably one of the best young ILBs in the league in Mosley, who often barreled into lead blockers to create openings for his teammates to take undisrupted and unabated angles to the ball. The clean ups can for sure be valuable. But in the words of the ancient Tibetan philosopher Bartholomew Edward Scott, "Anybody can get [expletive] tackles. Making a tackle 5-10 yards down the field, that’s [expletive]." I don’t expect Orr's to be filled by a single defender given the pieces within the front seven, but of the ones with either significant or significantly expanded roles, the two major contributors to monitor are likely Tyus Bowser and Kamalei Correa. I mention Bowser, ironically our new No.54, despite him playing on the edge against Washington because of his plus ability in dropping back in space. Orr was among the Top 12 in the league in cover snaps per game among LBs, and I would expect most of the redistribution to be handed down to Bowser and Correa. I admittedly wasn’t overly high on the latter prior to the draft, having more of a 3rd-4th round grade on Correa as a prospect; but he dabbled at ILB in college more often than some realize, so the versatility was evident. Conversely, it’s also partly why I wouldn’t expect to see him occupy every lost coverage snap on his own, which is why having another versatile defender in Bowser is such a benefit. The overall defensive performance against Washington came with a collective sigh of relief. The unit has had a fair amount of turnover, with questions about the front seven after losing several starters from the year before. And I personally wish Zachary Orr all the best, with hopes that he resurfaces on another team and finds success in his career. That being said, if our level of effectiveness against an underrated offensive line is any indication, then perhaps the loss of Orr could already be behind us. In either case, I'm looking forward to seeing who steps up in his absence.
