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The Random Thought Thread

Willbacker

Ravens Ring of Honor
I have never suggested (intentionally) that analytics takes away autonomy of the coach. In fact I’m arguing that it damn sure should not. Some have implied that he makes or should make all his decisions based on the numbers. I disagree with notion. I agree with you about everything else. I just think he made the wrong decision in that particular situation, regardless of what the numbers told him to do. On the second try I have agreed with going for that one.

That is my opinion and it’s not going to change. Lol

I think its gotten to the point whereas its being said it was a good decision when in reality it wasn't. Conventional wisdom has always been to punt on your own side of the field especially in the 1st qtr.

Now just throwing analytics aside Harbs has always been aggressive which drives me bat shit crazy sometimes. For this year it mighta been better if we failed a couple times in the reg season but just saying I'm not sure if analytics made Harbs go for it on that first try.
 
I think its gotten to the point whereas its being said it was a good decision when in reality it wasn't. Conventional wisdom has always been to punt on your own side of the field especially in the 1st qtr.

Now just throwing analytics aside Harbs has always been aggressive which drives me bat shit crazy sometimes. For this year it mighta been better if we failed a couple times in the reg season but just saying I'm not sure if analytics made Harbs go for it on that first try.

Yeah as a fan we have no way of knowing how analytics effects his decision making. We can’t see the numbers. We have to assume or trust that they are in his favor, or whether he even uses them all of the time. As I have said many time here statistics are always based on things that happened a week ago, a month ago, yesterday, never on the next play. And eventually they will fail you, as they did in this game. And to your point I think Harbs might have become to comfortable with the positive outcomes during the regular season. Maybe a little extra swagger. Lol
 

rossihunter2

Staff Member
Moderator
I think its gotten to the point whereas its being said it was a good decision when in reality it wasn't. Conventional wisdom has always been to punt on your own side of the field especially in the 1st qtr.

Now just throwing analytics aside Harbs has always been aggressive which drives me bat shit crazy sometimes. For this year it mighta been better if we failed a couple times in the reg season but just saying I'm not sure if analytics made Harbs go for it on that first try.

conventional wisdom is wrong and has been wrong for a long time - that's why analytics are literally making teams better... the eagles started that revolution and won a superbowl by implementing analytics into their play strategy with regards to 4th downs... the 2 number 1 seeds this year are both teams that go for it on 4th downs a lot because the analytics support that idea

being aggressive wins you football games - being conservative often stops you from winning football games - the plays went wrong in 1 game - doesnt make it a bad decision

so yes... it was a good decision even in hindsight, even knowing we didnt get it
 
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Tank

Hall of Famer
conventional wisdom is wrong and has been wrong for a long time - that's why analytics are literally making teams better... the eagles started that revolution and won a superbowl by implementing analytics into their play strategy with regards to 4th downs... the 2 number 1 seeds this year are both teams that go for it on 4th downs a lot because the analytics support that idea

being aggressive wins you football games - being conservative often stops you from winning football games - the plays went wrong in 1 game - doesnt make it a bad decision

so yes... it was a good decision even in hindsight, even knowing we didnt get it
Using data to help make decisions is no question the right thing to do. It would be dumb to not use every tool at your disposal. But you can't compare the validity, the right/wrong of being aggressive/conservative from one game/game situation to the next. It doesn't work like that. Just like being aggressive can win games there's no doubt that in the wrong situation it can lose games as well.
 

allblackraven

Hall of Famer
Using data to help make decisions is no question the right thing to do. It would be dumb to not use every tool at your disposal. But you can't compare the validity, the right/wrong of being aggressive/conservative from one game/game situation to the next. It doesn't work like that. Just like being aggressive can win games there's no doubt that in the wrong situation it can lose games as well.
When it helps me to 14-2 regular season with 70% success rate and I'm desperate to turn the tide in a playoff game, I am calling it 100%. of the time.
 
When it helps me to 14-2 regular season with 70% success rate and I'm desperate to turn the tide in a playoff game, I am calling it 100%. of the time.

Actually the ravens were 8 for 8 on 4th and 1 during the regular season. 100% success rate. The irony is that the success rate in the playoffs was 0%. Do you think maybe Tenn. knew what was coming? I think maybe their analytics outperformed our analytics. Lol.
 

allblackraven

Hall of Famer
Actually the ravens were 8 for 8 on 4th and 1 during the regular season. 100% success rate. The irony is that the success rate in the playoffs was 0%. Do you think maybe Tenn. knew what was coming? I think maybe their analytics outperformed our analytics. Lol.
No, I think we were outcoached on those plays. If we wanted to run inside, Bus should have had the ball.
 

Dom McRaven

Hall of Famer
Yeah I had no issues with going for it especially since it's a playoff game. I hated the playcalling and execution. I mean, TEN did their damnest to ensure that the QB wouldn't work and it paid off for them. We should've used some sort of trickery to counter that. Would've changed the complexion of the game.
 
No, I think we were outcoached on those plays. If we wanted to run inside, Bus should have had the ball.

But we were very successful with Lamar running on 4th down during the regular season, no? Tenn. sold out on the sneak/dive, both times actually. They knew what our tendencies were, and we didn’t disappoint them.

Yeah we could have ran better plays but I’m sure the analytics indicated that the plays we ran should have been successful.
 

JoeyFlex5

Hall of Famer
If we wanted to be risky and ballsy on 4th down in the playoffs, we should’ve not done exactly what any of the titans analytics would’ve said we would do, the way they played those snaps we could’ve dropped dimes and gotten well into the redzone with a fairly easy play.

honestly Lamar can probably take one step to force everyone up and someone will slip open, Hayden hurst was absolute money slipping out late on those fake sneaks yet it was only used I believe once on a crucial conversion down all year, would’ve been a perfect call, downblock in then slip up the seam, he would’ve been wide open.

the biggest problem was predictability. However I’ll maintain that I think taking points and making them drive the whole field would’ve put a level of pressure on a young and confident team that may have buckled them. Being behind wasn’t our problem, being well behind and giving them more chances to widen the gap was our problem, we gave them all the confidence in the world, applying the least bit of pressure and letting them know they would have to score to win, could’ve fucked their mental up. We just played into their hands, that first 4th down I felt at the time should’ve been a fg and I feel even stronger now that it should’ve been, but they definitely shouldn’t have been so predictable and should’ve given Lamar options because he’s been deadly on reads all year
 

Tank

Hall of Famer
If we wanted to be risky and ballsy on 4th down in the playoffs, we should’ve not done exactly what any of the titans analytics would’ve said we would do, the way they played those snaps we could’ve dropped dimes and gotten well into the redzone with a fairly easy play.

honestly Lamar can probably take one step to force everyone up and someone will slip open, Hayden hurst was absolute money slipping out late on those fake sneaks yet it was only used I believe once on a crucial conversion down all year, would’ve been a perfect call, downblock in then slip up the seam, he would’ve been wide open.

the biggest problem was predictability. However I’ll maintain that I think taking points and making them drive the whole field would’ve put a level of pressure on a young and confident team that may have buckled them. Being behind wasn’t our problem, being well behind and giving them more chances to widen the gap was our problem, we gave them all the confidence in the world, applying the least bit of pressure and letting them know they would have to score to win, could’ve fucked their mental up. We just played into their hands, that first 4th down I felt at the time should’ve been a fg and I feel even stronger now that it should’ve been, but they definitely shouldn’t have been so predictable and should’ve given Lamar options because he’s been deadly on reads all year

Predictable.

We went 14 - 2 not because of being aggressive, or solely because of the use of advanced data. We were successful because we played good defense and had an offense that was totally unpredictable, a formidable run game led by the game’s most exciting player that opened up things and allowed for easy completions. Unpredictability and deception that masked some inadequacies along the O line and at WR. The minute we became predictable it was the beginning of the end.
 

JoeyFlex5

Hall of Famer
Predictable.

We went 14 - 2 not because of being aggressive, or solely because of the use of advanced data. We were successful because we played good defense and had an offense that was totally unpredictable, a formidable run game led by the game’s most exciting player that opened up things and allowed for easy completions. Unpredictability and deception that masked some inadequacies along the O line and at WR. The minute we became predictable it was the beginning of the end.
I think that if you key in on the offense, what our dominance boiled down to, was giving Lamar options, and him finding and executing the right option to deadly efficiency.

I said all year that I think the empty set was overrated, statistically Lamar dominated out of the empty, but it takes away crucial aspects that made our offense harder to stop. You can have an RPO from empty, but there’s no real play fake, there’s no read that you can victimize because you don’t want your qb running up the gut constantly if the edge keeps contain, you are leaning on Lamar to beat 9 defenders by himself if you go max block empty backfield, there’s nothing he can do, line up the same but give the man his options, those options are what made us deadly, it wasn’t simply Lamar’s legs, it wasn’t our blocking scheme, it wasn’t the passing or scrambling, it was the READS, give Lamar minimum 3 options on every single play, with the first 2 options being keep or handoff, Lamar is so good at making the right read that this one thing is the most unstoppable part of the offense. There is NO read other than find a gap in a 9 man front when you go empty set with 10 blockers.
 
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rossihunter2

Staff Member
Moderator
I think that if you key in on the offense, what our dominance boiled down to, was giving Lamar options, and him finding and executing the right option to deadly efficiency.

I said all year that I think the empty set was overrated, statistically Lamar dominated out of the empty, but it takes away crucial aspects that made our offense harder to stop. You can have an RPO from empty, but there’s no real play fake, there’s no read that you can victimize because you don’t want your qb running up the gut constantly if the edge keeps contain, you are leaning on Lamar to beat 9 defenders by himself if you go max block empty backfield, there’s nothing he can do, line up the same but give the man his options, those options are what made us deadly, it wasn’t simply Lamar’s legs, it wasn’t our blocking scheme, it wasn’t the passing or scrambling, it was the READS, give Lamar minimum 3 options on every single play, with the first 2 options being keep or handoff, Lamar is so good at making the right read that this one thing is the most unstoppable part of the offense. There is NO read other than find a gap in a 9 man front when you go empty set with 10 blockers.

I mean I complete disagree with you about empty - I love the way Lamar operates in empty he’s so efficient when we can spread teams out and let him read and pick apart the defence and it pulls defenders out of the box which means there’s space
 

allblackraven

Hall of Famer
I mean I complete disagree with you about empty - I love the way Lamar operates in empty he’s so efficient when we can spread teams out and let him read and pick apart the defence and it pulls defenders out of the box which means there’s space
I still maintain opinion I formed during the game - our downfall was Ingram's injury combined with the fact that Roman didn't want to trust Edwards. It turned into Lamar being our only runner, relieving Titans defense of having to guess anything.
 

RavensFan419

Pro Bowler
Bruh are y’all really still arguing about whether or not we should’ve gone for it... this ain’t a winnable argument had we got it my guess is the game is a little different and no one would be saying anything ... had we kicked a field goal and Tuck misses people would be complaining that we had went for it all year who cares we lost no matter what YOU ARE DAMNED IF IT DOESNT WORK NO MATTER WHAT WE DID
 
I still maintain opinion I formed during the game - our downfall was Ingram's injury combined with the fact that Roman didn't want to trust Edwards. It turned into Lamar being our only runner, relieving Titans defense of having to guess anything.


Gus who put 130 yards against the Steelers D that didnt have to worry about Lamar. For me its the Andrews tipped int, he catches that and we win the game
 

allblackraven

Hall of Famer
Gus who put 130 yards against the Steelers D that didnt have to worry about Lamar. For me its the Andrews tipped int, he catches that and we win the game
Yeah, it was a tipped pass, heaps of drops, lousy O line play but it was also Edwards who is 240lbs of hard running that could have helped tiring some of that Titans defense and get us more time with the ball.
 
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