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General Draft Thoughts

Grim

Grim

Ravens Ring of Honor
rossihunter2 said:
I found this from Matt Miller interesting:

The 2020 quarterback class feels like one in which the order is mostly set—Burrow, Tua, Love/Herbert, Jacob Eason from Washington and then Jake Fromm of Georgia. There's a good chance we see all six drafted in the top 50 selections.

In talking to scouts this week, there is a strong feeling that demand will drive up the value of the supply. Take Fromm, for example. There are scouts who believe the Georgia quarterback's football IQ and experience will impress teams enough that they'll overlook a largely average career statistically at Georgia.

You could poke holes in every quarterback prospect in this class—Burrow's inexperience, Tua's injuries, decision-making from Herbert, Love and Eason—but the simple fact that so many teams need a 2020 starter or quarterback of the future is likely to drive value up.


When asked for a prediction, one personnel executive said five quarterbacks will be drafted in the top 15 picks.



8. The bad news about potentially six quarterbacks being drafted in the top 50 picks is that there isn't much depth after that. Oklahoma's Jalen Hurts struggled all week and was seen as maybe the next-best option at quarterback.


On my current big board, there are six quarterbacks in the top 60, but after that, the next quarterback is Hurts at No. 130 overall and then Cole McDonald from Hawaii at No. 185. This lack of quarterback depth in the middle rounds is why we could see aggressive moves from teams to come up the board to take a passer.

This isn't a year to hold off until Round 2 or 3 to get a quarterback you can develop. There's no Dak Prescott or Russell Wilson waiting in this class. If you need a quarterback, you'll be drafting one early.

Could be good news for us if the QB values get inflated because of the scarcity down the board - kind of the opposite of the receivers who might see some of the non-top 3 drifting down the board a little further because of the extreme talent at every level on the board
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tl;dr: this is probably accurate despite recent hype that there will be a run on QB but it rarely coming to fruition.
Don’t you feel like you’ve heard this narrative a lot though? I feel like we hear this every year and I can’t recall how often it is validated. Let’s examine the 12 teams who may be looking for a new or future QB to groom:
#1 CIN: yes
#2 WAS: maybe but unlikely due to 2019 pick
#3 DET: maybe but unlikely; Matt Stafford
#5, #18, #26 MIA: yes; 3 1st round picks too
#6 LAC: yes, very likely
#7 CAR: possible; may need to trade up
#9 & #20 JAX: maybe but unlikely; Mineshew & Foles. Have 2 1st round picks though so possible
#13 IND: possible; may need to trade up
#14 TB: maybe but more unlikely
#23 NE: very possible; may even trade up
#29 TEN: possible; will likely need to trade up
PIT: backup QB depth highly concerning and Ben questionable with injuries and retirement.

We have an unprecedented FA QB class too with the following top 6 FA QB:
Brees, Brady, Bridgewater, Rivers, Tannehill, Prescott. Brees & Prescott are very likely to stay in NO & DAL so I’m removing them & I also think Tannehill gets the tag while they re-sign Henry to a long term deal. I’ve heard Rivers could be going to TB so that means NO, DAL, & TB have no need of QB while TEN may need one but will likely risk it to probably improve their defense. That leaves FA QB as Brady, & Bridgewater without current projections. NE will try to keep Brady but whether they do or don’t I expect them & whoever signs Tom to have a backup plan drafted high. That means I’m guessing Bridgewater is the top FA QB with a lot of hungry mouths to feed. I guess it is possible we could see a big run for those QB based on this analysis.
 
rossihunter2

rossihunter2

Staff Member
Moderator
Grim said:
tl;dr: this is probably accurate despite recent hype that there will be a run on QB but it rarely coming to fruition.
Don’t you feel like you’ve heard this narrative a lot though? I feel like we hear this every year and I can’t recall how often it is validated. Let’s examine the 12 teams who may be looking for a new or future QB to groom:
#1 CIN: yes
#2 WAS: maybe but unlikely due to 2019 pick
#3 DET: maybe but unlikely; Matt Stafford
#5, #18, #26 MIA: yes; 3 1st round picks too
#6 LAC: yes, very likely
#7 CAR: possible; may need to trade up
#9 & #20 JAX: maybe but unlikely; Mineshew & Foles. Have 2 1st round picks though so possible
#13 IND: possible; may need to trade up
#14 TB: maybe but more unlikely
#23 NE: very possible; may even trade up
#29 TEN: possible; will likely need to trade up
PIT: backup QB depth highly concerning and Ben questionable with injuries and retirement.

We have an unprecedented FA QB class too with the following top 6 FA QB:
Brees, Brady, Bridgewater, Rivers, Tannehill, Prescott. Brees & Prescott are very likely to stay in NO & DAL so I’m removing them & I also think Tannehill gets the tag while they re-sign Henry to a long term deal. I’ve heard Rivers could be going to TB so that means NO, DAL, & TB have no need of QB while TEN may need one but will likely risk it to probably improve their defense. That leaves FA QB as Brady, & Bridgewater without current projections. NE will try to keep Brady but whether they do or don’t I expect them & whoever signs Tom to have a backup plan drafted high. That means I’m guessing Bridgewater is the top FA QB with a lot of hungry mouths to feed. I guess it is possible we could see a big run for those QB based on this analysis.
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you're 100% right that we hear something similar every year but its also true that every year qbs go higher than we expect because it only takes 1 team to fall in love with a particular prospect to make that pick happen

and the specific point about this class i found interesting was the fact that there's zero depth outside of the top 6 qbs in the class - normally there's a steady progression of guys in the class no matter what the top end talent looks like but outside of that consensus top 6 (7 if you include the wildcard of jalen hurts) there's basically no depth in this class - you might be looking at 100 picks between the 6th and 8th qb taken which would naturally inflate the value of those first 6 guys because teams know they need to go up and make sure they get their guy because they cant wait

for example the cowboys didnt initially target prescott but the guy they wanted got picked ahead of them (i think it was connor cook) but they didnt move up because there was depth and they liked prescott too later so they waited like 30 picks and took prescott - but that's not a thing that can happen in this draft because those guys dont exist in the 2020 class - that's why i kind of buy into this idea that maybe that many qbs get reached on early (and maybe 4 in the top 15 although that seems pretty far-fetched to me) and i dont think free agency necessarily cancels out teams from drafting qbs this year - a lot of the free agent qbs are guys at the very end of their careers where its definitely in the teams' interest to find their qb of the future - for those that feel like they can wait they may want to wait until 2021 because of the upper eschelon talent in that qb class but if there's someone they like a la the chiefs with patrick mahomes then they'll go and get them

e.g. sounds like the chargers are really interested in jordan love right now even if they do get a vet or stick with tyrod they'll want to bring someone in

the colts need to do something or they'll just tread water until 2021 when the next generational qb falls into their lap like peyton manning and andrew luck except their roster isnt bad enough to sink them to the number 1 pick and the team that gets that pick (and number 2 for that matter) are likely going to be qb needy and not moving out of that spot in that draft

i think you can nail on the patriots taking a qb in the first 2 rounds somewhere unless BB and Mcdaniels are sold on jarrett stidham
 
Grim

Grim

Ravens Ring of Honor
rossihunter2 said:
you're 100% right that we hear something similar every year but its also true that every year qbs go higher than we expect because it only takes 1 team to fall in love with a particular prospect to make that pick happen

and the specific point about this class i found interesting was the fact that there's zero depth outside of the top 6 qbs in the class - normally there's a steady progression of guys in the class no matter what the top end talent looks like but outside of that consensus top 6 (7 if you include the wildcard of jalen hurts) there's basically no depth in this class - you might be looking at 100 picks between the 6th and 8th qb taken which would naturally inflate the value of those first 6 guys because teams know they need to go up and make sure they get their guy because they cant wait

for example the cowboys didnt initially target prescott but the guy they wanted got picked ahead of them (i think it was connor cook) but they didnt move up because there was depth and they liked prescott too later so they waited like 30 picks and took prescott - but that's not a thing that can happen in this draft because those guys dont exist in the 2020 class - that's why i kind of buy into this idea that maybe that many qbs get reached on early (and maybe 4 in the top 15 although that seems pretty far-fetched to me) and i dont think free agency necessarily cancels out teams from drafting qbs this year - a lot of the free agent qbs are guys at the very end of their careers where its definitely in the teams' interest to find their qb of the future - for those that feel like they can wait they may want to wait until 2021 because of the upper eschelon talent in that qb class but if there's someone they like a la the chiefs with patrick mahomes then they'll go and get them

e.g. sounds like the chargers are really interested in jordan love right now even if they do get a vet or stick with tyrod they'll want to bring someone in

the colts need to do something or they'll just tread water until 2021 when the next generational qb falls into their lap like peyton manning and andrew luck except their roster isnt bad enough to sink them to the number 1 pick and the team that gets that pick (and number 2 for that matter) are likely going to be qb needy and not moving out of that spot in that draft

i think you can nail on the patriots taking a qb in the first 2 rounds somewhere unless BB and Mcdaniels are sold on jarrett stidham
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Yeah everything you said I agree with here. I’m just saying we hear the narrative because that was my initial thought; however, after analyzing it when the data I provided above, I realized it could come to fruition. I also agree the notion of a run on QB in the first seems far fetched but it could happen. I think there’s a stronger likelihood of 3 QB going top-15 and then maybe 2 QB going in the first overall with someone trading up for another QB at the backend of the first for the fifth year option. With MIA, CIN, LAC, IND, NE, & TEN as having glaring needs at the position and needing. I expect MIA & CIN to get their top 2 guys early, removing them from play. That leaves 3 other guys potentially, and I could see LAC wait to take their guy and trade up from their early 2nd to get him. I think possibly 2 of IND, NE, & possibly CAR could trade up to take their QB. I suspect TEN goes defense and tags Tannehill in hopes of drafting a QB with their second round pick. So I would think we’ll see 3 QB go in the top-15 and a 4th in the top 32 to get that fifth year option. Then you’ll probably see the other team get their guy in the 2nd.
 
RavensMania

RavensMania

Staff Member
Administrator
There's always legit talent in the 3rd and 4th and even 5th rounds. They're my favorite rounds in the draft, because you can pluck a bunch of starters out of those rounds. Hell, just look at the Ravens mid round picks since 2015. Zeus Jr, Andrews, Young, Boyle, ZDS, Judon. Hell we even drafted Bozeman, Clark and Elliott in the 6th round.

For my money, I'd consider trading out of the first round and acquiring another 2nd and 3rd round pick.. There's Sooo much value there and you can get some really really good players. Loading up on 2/3/4 round picks are where we can get a bunch of underrated guys who get you to the super bowls, plus they perform for a few years waaaay above their paygrade.
 
rossihunter2

rossihunter2

Staff Member
Moderator
RavensMania said:
There's always legit talent in the 3rd and 4th and even 5th rounds. They're my favorite rounds in the draft, because you can pluck a bunch of starters out of those rounds. Hell, just look at the Ravens mid round picks since 2015. Zeus Jr, Andrews, Young, Boyle, ZDS, Judon. Hell we even drafted Bozeman, Clark and Elliott in the 6th round.

For my money, I'd consider trading out of the first round and acquiring another 2nd and 3rd round pick.. There's Sooo much value there and you can get some really really good players. Loading up on 2/3/4 round picks are where we can get a bunch of underrated guys who get you to the super bowls, plus they perform for a few years waaaay above their paygrade.
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I would say that’s an especially good move this year given so far I’d say the difference in talent between the 20th player and 40th on my board isn’t that big - so unless we’re looking to nail a particular position (like edge), trading back may be the best move unless a premier talent falls to us
 
JoeyFlex5

JoeyFlex5

Hall of Famer
RavensMania said:
There's always legit talent in the 3rd and 4th and even 5th rounds. They're my favorite rounds in the draft, because you can pluck a bunch of starters out of those rounds. Hell, just look at the Ravens mid round picks since 2015. Zeus Jr, Andrews, Young, Boyle, ZDS, Judon. Hell we even drafted Bozeman, Clark and Elliott in the 6th round.

For my money, I'd consider trading out of the first round and acquiring another 2nd and 3rd round pick.. There's Sooo much value there and you can get some really really good players. Loading up on 2/3/4 round picks are where we can get a bunch of underrated guys who get you to the super bowls, plus they perform for a few years waaaay above their paygrade.
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I’m liking trade back too. The only way I’d be ok trading up would be for chaisson, there won’t be another potential player I’d want that would need a trade up. At 28 there’s plenty of guys I’d want, but I don’t know if any of them wouldn’t be available 10-12 spots later.
 
Grim

Grim

Ravens Ring of Honor
JoeyFlex5 said:
I’m liking trade back too. The only way I’d be ok trading up would be for chaisson, there won’t be another potential player I’d want that would need a trade up. At 28 there’s plenty of guys I’d want, but I don’t know if any of them wouldn’t be available 10-12 spots later.
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Gross-Matos is a guy I could see us trading up to get because of how good he is in run defense. He should make an immediate impact here
 
Charm City

Charm City

Pro Bowler
upload_2020-2-2_8-45-37.png


I have no clue what the simulator was smoking, but it must have been high quality
 
Charm City

Charm City

Pro Bowler
Willbacker said:
Oh my goodness could you imagine if that was our draft!!!!! Is this done with other people drafting for their teams? Or just a simulator?
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I set the fanspeak simulator to the Miller draft board (most updated one) and difficult difficulty. The autodraft is normally pretty spot on. idk what happened lol
 
Edgar

Edgar

Ravens Ring of Honor
I can't see us going into the draft without signing an ILB in FA. maybe Schobert, maybe someone no one is mentioning but we won't go into the draft having to absolutely positively take one . Especially not this draft class.
 
Charm City

Charm City

Pro Bowler
Edgar said:
I can't see us going into the draft without signing an ILB in FA. maybe Schobert, maybe someone no one is mentioning but we won't go into the draft having to absolutely positively take one . Especially not this draft class.
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The ILB free agent class, assuming it stays as is, looks pretty top-heavy. With that being said, I'd be happy with any of Cory Littleton, Joe Schobert, Nick Kwiatkowski, Blake Martinez, or David Mayo before the draft.
 
RaineV1

RaineV1

Ravens Ring of Honor
One LB we definitely should take a look at is Akeem Davis-Gaither. He flies under the radar due to not having the best length and coming from a weaker conference. However, his instincts seem off the chart, he's a great read and react guys in coverage, and he has really good athleticism. Plus, he really knows how to tackle. He doesn't head hunt or put everything into going for the ball letting the carrier easily juke or spin move move him. He properly breaksdown and wraps people up. In fact he's a tackling machine. Though the real highlight is his physicality and passion. He's a sparkplug for a defense, really igniting them and firing them up.

 
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