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The Random Thought Thread

drjohnnyfever

Pro Bowler
1. The deadline for opt outs has since passed, so barring the league opening that up again (which they won't) or a marquee player literally forfeiting tens of millions of dollars (and losing a year of contract status) to sit out, there's not going to be any more opt outs of note.
2. I don't really think they're that much much susceptible to virus spread than, say, basketball. Maybe a little bit, but if you're testing before games, does it really matter? Its not like they're not going to test the heck out of these guys.
They're more susceptible to outbreaks because they won't be in a bubble. As it stands now, these guys are going to travel, be in their own homes multiple times a week, and just have general freedom to live their lives. They're not going to be quarantined at a resort.
That's what amplifies the risk.
3. I don't think the NFL cares one little bit about what other leagues are doing. They'll point to the amateurism of college football as a reason for their possible postponement (which certainly plays a role), and they'll point to the many differences with other sports as to why the NFL can't and shouldn't operate like they did.

In the truly macro sense, there's only really two things these leagues are actually worried about:
1. Players dying
2. Basically what college football is concerned with, which is long term effects and possible future lawsuits. Its Concussions 2.0. If players get COVID while participating in the season, recover, and all of the sudden need a lung transplant 20 years from now due to complications, they'll fire up the class action suits against the leagues, and go for big payouts.

Everything else, I would bet, is tolerable to the league. COVID outbreaks in week 6 that require the season to be shut down are fine. Why? That's 5 weeks of revenue they wouldn't have gotten if they postponed before the season started.

Deaths from family members of players is probably "OK". Why? Because you can't just blame it on the players. Contact tracing largely doesn't exist in this Country, so they'll never be able to prove where the source of the virus spread came from.

Well, respectfully, this is a fans perspective and I'm with you to a degree... The League definitely cares what's happening in other sports! There's a reason they came out and said they were playing when they did. Press!!! The optics then was, "This is not bad and why aren't these rich guys getting it together and playing?!" The luxury the NFL had was that their season was months out! It was the popular response when it was made.

Re the deadline passing... There's no real deadline to opt out in reality. These guys and the league are into "optics," both with themselves and politically. If they want to opt out they will whenever they feel like it and will let everyone know why; and if challenged, why they are right and the other Aholes questioning them are Aholes.

And if you don't think the NFL is worried about the long term and "20 years down the road Class Action law suits..." Dude------ seriously. The NFL is College on steroids about worry. They already have the whole brain injury thing that will remain unresolved for decades.

The excuses to cancel are there. Whether the NFL takes one remains to be seen. I wouldn't blame them if they changed course.
 

rmcjacket23

Ravens Ring of Honor
Just to touch on the bolded, I think this is one of the biggest risks. Yeah they're testing like crazy but the testing isn't foolproof which MLB has shown. In baseball, we've already had numerous instances of guys playing after testing negative, and then the next test shows they're positive. That's gotta be the biggest fear for football right now - a guy has a false negative, plays on Sunday, and then tests again and it's found that he's positive. Test the rest of the team and the opposing team and that could be the recipe for disaster.

With that being said, I'd hope the NFL has much better protocols in place than MLB because MLB has shit the bed.
Well, respectfully, this is a fans perspective and I'm with you to a degree... The League definitely cares what's happening in other sports! There's a reason they came out and said they were playing when they did. Press!!! The optics then was, "This is not bad and why aren't these rich guys getting it together and playing?!" The luxury the NFL had was that their season was months out! It was the popular response when it was made.

Re the deadline passing... There's no real deadline to opt out in reality. These guys and the league are into "optics," both with themselves and politically. If they want to opt out they will whenever they feel like it and will let everyone know why; and if challenged, why they are right and the other Aholes questioning them are Aholes.

And if you don't think the NFL is worried about the long term and "20 years down the road Class Action law suits..." Dude------ seriously. The NFL is College on steroids about worry. They already have the whole brain injury thing that will remain unresolved for decades.

The excuses to cancel are there. Whether the NFL takes one remains to be seen. I wouldn't blame them if they changed course.
1. They came out and said that they were playing when they did because they had time on their side, and because they haven't found a good reason not to play yet. Its not about optics. Its about money. The NFL doesn't care about optics. If it didn't, it would never let a person convicted or even accused of domestic violence ever sit foot on a team again.
Its about money.
2. In terms of the "opt outs", see item #1. Its all down to the money. There's a reason why practically nobody of significant note opted out. Because cash is king. And anybody that opts out now can do as much talking as they want to and say whatever they want. But they won't be receiving the millions of dollars they're owed to them this season, and they won't get their contracts tolled to have a shot to earn it back next year. Its basically just a team taking a pencil and erasing part of their contract.
3. I have no doubt the NFL is worried about decades later. The difference between them and, say, the NCAA, is amateurism vs professionalism. The latter already has all the information it needed to determine, at an individual level, whether they should play or not, AND, they're being compensated for that already.
The reason concussions are unresolved (though they pretty much are at this point) is because of the evidence that the NFL knew about the risks, and covered them up and hid them from the players.
We have none of that here. The NFL doesn't have any more or less info on COVID than the general public does, which is to say it knows actually very little about it.

Optics are a mirage. Cash is king. The NFL is moving forward because they want Cash. Its way the NBA moved forward. Its why MLB moved forward. And its partially why some of the larger conferences in NCAA aren't. Its not because there's no money in it. They just have others to answer to. The NCAA is only as powerful as the Presidents of the Universities allow it to be. If a President of a school, who in a lot of cases doesn't really care much about athletics, doesn't want its kids to play, they don't play.

Its an entirely different model.

The excuses to cancel are the exact same today as they were 4 months ago. Nothing has changed. Basically every Pro Sport has moved forward. I wouldn't expect anything that's happened so far to make them think they can't start.
 

drjohnnyfever

Pro Bowler
I expect them to play. I also wouldn't be surprised if things change at some point. And change could mean "optics" too. The NFL most certainly does care about optics... specifically bad views. MLB was on the brink of shutting down. If something similar happens in camp or otherwise, there is going to be gnashing of teeth whether they should proceed or shouldn't based on the degree of the problem. And the players will have their say on social media too... which will contribute to how fans see things - positive or negative. We'll see. As I said, I expect them to follow thru on playing, not exclusively because they said they WOULD, but because that's a big part of it and they would appear foolish to fans at this point if they were to change course without anything to substantiate it. So barring an outbreak, the season begins as planned.
 
1. They came out and said that they were playing when they did because they had time on their side, and because they haven't found a good reason not to play yet. Its not about optics. Its about money. The NFL doesn't care about optics. If it didn't, it would never let a person convicted or even accused of domestic violence ever sit foot on a team again.
Its about money.
2. In terms of the "opt outs", see item #1. Its all down to the money. There's a reason why practically nobody of significant note opted out. Because cash is king. And anybody that opts out now can do as much talking as they want to and say whatever they want. But they won't be receiving the millions of dollars they're owed to them this season, and they won't get their contracts tolled to have a shot to earn it back next year. Its basically just a team taking a pencil and erasing part of their contract.
3. I have no doubt the NFL is worried about decades later. The difference between them and, say, the NCAA, is amateurism vs professionalism. The latter already has all the information it needed to determine, at an individual level, whether they should play or not, AND, they're being compensated for that already.
The reason concussions are unresolved (though they pretty much are at this point) is because of the evidence that the NFL knew about the risks, and covered them up and hid them from the players.
We have none of that here. The NFL doesn't have any more or less info on COVID than the general public does, which is to say it knows actually very little about it.

Optics are a mirage. Cash is king. The NFL is moving forward because they want Cash. Its way the NBA moved forward. Its why MLB moved forward. And its partially why some of the larger conferences in NCAA aren't. Its not because there's no money in it. They just have others to answer to. The NCAA is only as powerful as the Presidents of the Universities allow it to be. If a President of a school, who in a lot of cases doesn't really care much about athletics, doesn't want its kids to play, they don't play.

Its an entirely different model.

The excuses to cancel are the exact same today as they were 4 months ago. Nothing has changed. Basically every Pro Sport has moved forward. I wouldn't expect anything that's happened so far to make them think they can't start.

They care about optics, because it affects revenue.
 

rmcjacket23

Ravens Ring of Honor
They care about optics, because it affects revenue.
Maybe. There's plenty of optics that don't impact revenue at all.

Take concussions for example. It had almost no impact on revenue. All it impacted was costs going out the door for litigation.

Some would argue that the NFL's response to concussions, which was more player safety in exchange for more penalties, fines, etc. was what actually cost the league revenue, because it turned off fans. ESPN had the "Jacked Up" segment, which was one of its highly rated and most watched segments of any production they did on a weekly basis. It was, quite simply, a concussion montage. Fans literally couldn't get enough of it.

And now its gone, because the NFL doesn't want to promote it. Those weren't optics that were driven by fans. Those were hard costs to the bottom line for concussion settlements.

Anybody think domestic violence really impacted the NFL's revenue? If so, where are you seeing that in terms of revenue $, because nobody else is seeing it. That's purely optics. That's just internet trolls talking a big game online, and a bunch of liberal media members pushing their own agendas on a public platform. It did nothing to hurt the league's bottom line.

That's what optics is. Its fans talking the talking, but rarely ever walking the walk. Player kneeling a few years ago was supposed to be the end of the NFL as we know it. Tens of millions of people were supposedly going to quit watching because of the outrage. Then revenues increased... every single year.

It's just blah blah blah blah blah...
 

rmcjacket23

Ravens Ring of Honor
I expect them to play. I also wouldn't be surprised if things change at some point. And change could mean "optics" too. The NFL most certainly does care about optics... specifically bad views. MLB was on the brink of shutting down. If something similar happens in camp or otherwise, there is going to be gnashing of teeth whether they should proceed or shouldn't based on the degree of the problem. And the players will have their say on social media too... which will contribute to how fans see things - positive or negative. We'll see. As I said, I expect them to follow thru on playing, not exclusively because they said they WOULD, but because that's a big part of it and they would appear foolish to fans at this point if they were to change course without anything to substantiate it. So barring an outbreak, the season begins as planned.
1. MLB was never close to shutting down. That was purely media speculation. You never heard any discussions about it from anybody in the MLB office. They knew clubhouse outbreaks were going to happen. It was inevitable.
2. The players can have all the say they want... then they'll pad up and hit the field. That's what they do. Every time the CBA comes up for renewal, they all take to social media or the public to tell everybody how they're getting screwed and how they're willing to hold out and blah blah blah. A month later, they sign a new deal that looks a lot similar to the old one. Its just talk.
3. Fans see things one way... they want football. If its on, they'll watch it. If fans are so unhappy about player safety, then it seems hypocritical for those same fans to tune in on Sunday when the games are on. But they will. Player safety being questionable, and it will be all year long, this will be the highest rated NFL viewership season in history. And it won't be close.
So yeah, fans will care about player safety and morality all the way up to the point where they toss it to the side and support the league on Sunday.

No matter how you slice it, every single road leads back to money. The owners want. The players want it. And the only way they both can get it is to suit up and play.

97.5% of all rostered NFL players chose to make more money and play than to take less money and stay home. Its not rocket science folks. And keep in mind... a lot of those players won't even be on the final roster and may not get paid anything. They just want a SHOT at making a team, and they're willing to assume the risks to do it.
 
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Maybe. There's plenty of optics that don't impact revenue at all.

Take concussions for example. It had almost no impact on revenue. All it impacted was costs going out the door for litigation.

Some would argue that the NFL's response to concussions, which was more player safety in exchange for more penalties, fines, etc. was what actually cost the league revenue, because it turned off fans. ESPN had the "Jacked Up" segment, which was one of its highly rated and most watched segments of any production they did on a weekly basis. It was, quite simply, a concussion montage. Fans literally couldn't get enough of it.

And now its gone, because the NFL doesn't want to promote it. Those weren't optics that were driven by fans. Those were hard costs to the bottom line for concussion settlements.

Anybody think domestic violence really impacted the NFL's revenue? If so, where are you seeing that in terms of revenue $, because nobody else is seeing it. That's purely optics. That's just internet trolls talking a big game online, and a bunch of liberal media members pushing their own agendas on a public platform. It did nothing to hurt the league's bottom line.

That's what optics is. Its fans talking the talking, but rarely ever walking the walk. Player kneeling a few years ago was supposed to be the end of the NFL as we know it. Tens of millions of people were supposedly going to quit watching because of the outrage. Then revenues increased... every single year.

It's just blah blah blah blah blah...

I should have said profit. Anyway the optics refer to how the NFL looks in response to issues you raise, their responses are driven by the profit motive.
 

rmcjacket23

Ravens Ring of Honor
I should have said profit. Anyway the optics refer to how the NFL looks in response to issues you raise, their responses are driven by the profit motive.
That's correct. And the NFL is much smarter than the general public in terms of figuring out what actually matters (i.e. things that will actually impact the bottom line) and what doesn't matter, like domestic violence, anthem protesting, etc., which are generally just fads that fans get outraged about for like a month or two then move on with their lives and get back to doing precisely what they were doing before, which is supporting the NFL.

A COVID outbreak on the Ravens isn't going to make Ravens fans want to turn the TV off. A league wide outbreak won't either. The only thing that will turn the TV off is if the NFL literally can't field teams, or has something disastrous happen, like a death, that will cause significant financial burdens.
 

Adreme

Ravens Ring of Honor
That's correct. And the NFL is much smarter than the general public in terms of figuring out what actually matters (i.e. things that will actually impact the bottom line) and what doesn't matter, like domestic violence, anthem protesting, etc., which are generally just fads that fans get outraged about for like a month or two then move on with their lives and get back to doing precisely what they were doing before, which is supporting the NFL.

A COVID outbreak on the Ravens isn't going to make Ravens fans want to turn the TV off. A league wide outbreak won't either. The only thing that will turn the TV off is if the NFL literally can't field teams, or has something disastrous happen, like a death, that will cause significant financial burdens.

I would say the same logic could be applied to colleges who also know their own source of income. However, for them it is different than the NFL, in terms of making money from sports and overall, and they have a different method of getting players. While college sports no doubt make these universities mountains of money, the earth shattering amounts of money they make comes from their donations which could dry up in a hurry if they play it wrong and the big money donors feel like their school is prioritizing sports over public health.

Not to mention how college sports make money is different than the NFL. In the NFL they have the salary cap so any team will field a real NFL team and with revenue sharing all the teams make some money. In college you need to be competitive and to be competitive you need to recruit talent and good luck getting the talent to want to come to your school when Mom and Dad can ask "so you want us to trust you with our kid, when we just saw last year you were willing to risk their lives to play?". If I were a parent schools that did that would be a non starter for me.
 

rmcjacket23

Ravens Ring of Honor
I would say the same logic could be applied to colleges who also know their own source of income. However, for them it is different than the NFL, in terms of making money from sports and overall, and they have a different method of getting players. While college sports no doubt make these universities mountains of money, the earth shattering amounts of money they make comes from their donations which could dry up in a hurry if they play it wrong and the big money donors feel like their school is prioritizing sports over public health.

Not to mention how college sports make money is different than the NFL. In the NFL they have the salary cap so any team will field a real NFL team and with revenue sharing all the teams make some money. In college you need to be competitive and to be competitive you need to recruit talent and good luck getting the talent to want to come to your school when Mom and Dad can ask "so you want us to trust you with our kid, when we just saw last year you were willing to risk their lives to play?". If I were a parent schools that did that would be a non starter for me.
Yeah I mean there's a couple different things in play:
1. I think far more college kids would opt not to play. It just doesn't get the publicity that the NFL does. There were already a couple of projected 2021 first round picks who said they wouldn't be suiting up this year, games or no games.
2. When everybody thinks college football, we talk mostly the Power 5 or the largest schools like Notre Dame. But there's literally hundreds or even thousands of schools that fall under the NCAA's umbrella that don't have nearly the revenue models that elite D-1 football does.
3. The biggest challenge I think schools have is the diversity of sports. I think they've realized there's no way they can allow Football to play, but then cancel other Fall Sports. Its an all or nothing approach. And pretty much every other sport, with the exception of maybe Mens Basketball, operates at a loss. So now you're sending unpaid (at least directly) athletes out there for Fall Sports, with significant risks, in a sport that may be better off being cancelled all together than to operate at a loss.

And that's before we go down the path of the idea that a University itself's primary goal is education of students, as opposed to being a profitable football program. Most colleges/Universities in this country have athletic programs that make little or no money. Its essentially a glorified benefit to entice students to come to the school.
 

JoeyFlex5

Hall of Famer
And signed on with Barstool this morning. Deion with no filter? Whew.
LETS GOOOO

Who are the others we wanna see on barstool? Bart Scott has been one of the better analysts out there, he would be a dream fit, Rex Ryan would be another. They just so happen to be former ravens but that’s just a coincidence, they would be awesome with barstool.
 

rossihunter2

Staff Member
Moderator
A tight end 75 million? Got dam

its hard to argue he's not as valuable to the 49ers as most WRs would be to their prospective teams

Gronk's mega-deal really set the TE market back because of those injuries that made Gronk accept considerably less - the TE market hasnt had the through the roof deals that other positions have had at the top
 

Deebo813

Hall of Famer
its hard to argue he's not as valuable to the 49ers as most WRs would be to their prospective teams

Gronk's mega-deal really set the TE market back because of those injuries that made Gronk accept considerably less - the TE market hasnt had the through the roof deals that other positions have had at the top
Oh yea he def deserves it. Him and juice are really big pieces in that offense
 
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cdp

Ravens Ring of Honor
its hard to argue he's not as valuable to the 49ers as most WRs would be to their prospective teams

Gronk's mega-deal really set the TE market back because of those injuries that made Gronk accept considerably less - the TE market hasnt had the through the roof deals that other positions have had at the top
and now Kelce. The Chiefs are now paying Kelce, Hill, Jones and Mahomes. I wonder what their roster is going to look like. Looks very top heavy kinda similar what the Rams did.
 
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