JoeyFlex5
Hall of Famer
We’re just tired of seeing day 3 prospects who never even play
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Signings, Cuts, Trades
- Thread starter RavensMania
- Start date
Our last few years within that range have been a bit uninspiring. Though we've had some good contributors over the last few years. Isiah Likely, Charlie Kolar, Jordan Stout, and (to a more uneven degree) Daniel Faalele have found contributions from the 2022 class. Tavius Robinson has been looking like a solid rotation piece lately from last year. Andrew Vorhees struggled, but he could likely rebound with time given the injury he's coming off of. There's definitely disappointment in the ones that outright don't make the final roster. And the jury is largely still out on the ones from this year, so it's a bit of a fresh found. That said, the prospects are out there. I'd like to believe that we eventually choose more wisely in that range.
A great player is a great player, but a draft pick could be anything, it could even be a great player! You know how much the team loves those.
That Family Guy paraphrase is sort of how I feel about picks. They are a useful tool for team building but if you can get a great player for them you pull the trigger. Roquan Smith is far more valuable on average than a 2nd.
To use another example making the rounds, Micah Parsons is far more valuable than 2 1s but yet the morning shows keep saying they should trade him for 2 1s.
Basically the goal of a draft is a great class is 1 core player, 2 starters, and 1-2 depth pieces over the next 4 years. If I told you for a 2nd you can lock up a core guy for that time then it’s great value.
allblackraven
Hall of Famer
The truth is - draft picks aren't worth as much as they used to be. College product is becoming mediocre after the first day and a half.
JoeyFlex5
Hall of Famer
I just base it on the trends that we as a team have put out there, we completely whiff on a lot of day 3 picks, there’s exceptions but the most we ever get is a rotational guy, and it’s starters that we lack. Let go of a few for a starter here and there is all I’m saying.
One of the shows best early season jokes! The Smith trade is an achievable example, but it does represent a bit of a high point. Inconsistent performances and sometimes outright poor play lowered his price tag to a reasonable range. That said, given that he flashed All-Pro talent in his best ones, the upside was palpable, so projecting an uptick in a better unit wasn't difficult. And he was only 25, which cleared two of the biggest determining factors. He would require a market-resetting contract, but we could live with it given the age and future upside to perform an upper-tier level.
A player in a similar situation was Jamal Adams. Traded at 25, during Adams first few seasons with the Jets, he genuinely looked like a future Hall of Famer. In contrast to Smith, he had immediately lived up to his billing, which is why we understandably kicked the tires on sending multiple 1sts, among other assets, to New York. Seattle pulled the trigger instead. The Jets used the 1st and 3rd they received to move up for Alijah Vera-Tucker, who's currently playing like one of the best RGs in football, and the other to select Garret Wilson. That return is also high point example. There's no guarantee that the Seahawks would've come close to that haul in terms of draft picks. That said, the whiff on Adams impacted their cap space for the next several years. Who they got in 2020 was a shell of what we saw the year prior, and with contract given, the team is essentially forced to put out a disappointing product on the field.
That's where the idea of getting a great player isn't always as simple. It's still a roll of the dice. And generally speaking, it's uncommon for the available players to be both young and have flashed upside to produce at an award-winning level. When they are available, they are likely being moved just before receiving top-flight contract, most often from the receiving party. So the misses are monumentally harder to immediately move on from than rookie contracts. And the amount of times these acquisitions can be accomplished without derailing the future cap is difficult. to be fair, it's a strategy we have seen work in its best instances. But you could end up either being the Rams, or being the Dolphins.
Most of what we've seen, even the players that are likely to play well for the next year or two, have been aging vets with sizable contracts. Parsons, if available, I see being a Khalil Mack to the Raiders level of an acquisition, so I'd be entirely behind a team making the move. I'm entirely for the idea of moving picks for potential pillars, Smith included. With respect to the draft classes, I feel having an arbitrary idea of what to get limits the expectations of what's available in the later rounds, which I think is currently one of the biggest flaws in scouting.
Now that's a fair point. Looking at the Raiders a few years ago, it didn't matter how many 1st round picks they had. They weren't turning them into results, so being self-reflective enough to know what the team is best at and conversely what it's not, I totally get your sentiment.
JoeyFlex5
Hall of Famer
Self criticism is a virtue
I can't agree. If we go back a few years to 2022, with their feet now under them, there were prospects members here recognized as notable future contributors or potential starters. In its third day, at CB alone, the list included: DaRon Bland, Riq Woolen, Zyon McCollum, Jack Jones, Ja'Quan McMillian, Quentin Lake and Samuel Womack. I don't know if anyone was high on Christian Benford or Ja'Sir Taylor, I personally didn't watch them. It's an impressive group.
Elsewhere, at RB, myself or others touted Kyren Williams, Tyler Allgeier, Jaylen Warren and Isiah Pacheco. Zach Tom and Braxton Jones on the OL. Cade Otton and Jake Ferguson at TE. Damone Clark and Markquese Bell at LB. And that's with others in lesser roles omitted. These were then-prospects that some of our most involved scouts here recognized well before the draft. That's not at all to imply that everyone's had a perfect track record. Just that these ones above weren't fluky pleasant surprises. We've all had our stinkers. But these players outline underestimations by either the media, the teams or both. I do think there are down years in both depth and top end talent. But I also haven't seen a year yet where it's been a barren wasteland. I think some years, it just takes a lot more sifting than most have time to do.
Adams never looked like an hof to me.. maybe out of college but once he got in the nfl, he couldnt do nothing but blitz
Then we can talk about average returns very easily. There are two easy ways to do this. One we can look at where that pick is expected to be and check the quality of players you can get there. For example if you were to use pick 31 Oweh is the best pick at that slot in the past 10 years and I would not trade 2 of him for a top 3 defensive player who has been top 3 in the NFL in DOPY all 3 years and basically transformed that defense from the worst in the NFL to one of the best (and now that he is out for a couple games they look like one of the worst again).
We could also look at the players who the Cowboys would pick, should they make that trade, to try and see what their expected returns would be. The past 3 years they have gone 12-5 so they had late first round picks and in the past 3 years have drafted 24, 26, and 29 respectively, which is about where you would expect a team that is trading for a premiere pass rusher to land (especially considering teams like the Bills were ones being floated). The three players they drafted are: Mazi Smith, Tyler Smith, and Tyler Guyton. I would not trade any 2 of those for Micah Parsons. I would not trade all 3 of those for Micah Parsons.
I think overall we have this trend of looking around and seeing the best possible value that the mystery box can be instead of just looking at what it is expected to be and asking "is the expected value worth it here" because very often it is not. I would say though, especially in the case of Seattle, that if you are not a team about to compete in the next year or two then the young players have value because the established player is not going to be around when it is time, whereas even if the young players are worse they will be there when it is time. They made a similar mistake to what the Saints made in not recognizing that their window is over and its time to do a rebuild. If you recognize it early it can be a short rebuild. Tampa even made the playoffs last year in what was effectively their rebuild year.
SepticeyePoe
Hall of Famer
Grim
Ravens Ring of Honor
I wonder if this means Ojabo somehow plays
Sandtown
MVP
It's a interesting move to though. I dont know if I would have cut him but maybe the team thinks Ojabo and others can be better
Definitely seems like they think Ojabo and/or Isaac can be just as effective at this point. Looked like you had caught lightning in a bottle with Ngakoue his first 2 games, but the last 3 have been largely forgettable. Might as well move to the young guys at this stage.
I actually like eddie a lil bit. He has been in position to make plays.. its just hard for me to believe that both him and marcus the problem.. i mean eddie could be but idk
Sandtown
MVP
That's understandable.Time move so fast I thought he only played in two games lol. I didn't know it was 5 but it make sense to give the younger guys a try. Hope Yannick makes the practice squad
That shows how forgettable it's been lol. Think if he could do anything other than rush the passer, he'd remain. But the fact that that's all he really does and that hasn't been great... might as well give other guys a shot. If he comes back to the PS, great. If he doesn't, no big loss. He's not the only problem but he's been a big part of the non-existent rush over the last few weeks and he was the most expendable.