I realise that prevailing opinion suggests you would review draft classes 3 years later but I thought it would be interesting to analyse recent drafts to see if there's anything instructive for future drafts... or whether we can gather anything by looking at the last drafts (and rookie classes) as a whole and who's still on the team or what we gained from them - probably will start with 2015 because that's the last year still on rookie deals (excluding CJ from 2014) but ill throw in 2014 because its easy
2014: CJ Mosley, Brent Urban, James Hurst, Zach Orr (retired), Timmy Jernigan (traded for equivalent value of 3rd round pick)
2018: Hayden Hurst, Lamar Jackson, Orlando Brown Jr, Mark Andrews, Anthony Averett, Kenny Young, Jaleel Scott, Jordan Lasley, Deshon Elliott, Greg Senat, Bradley Bozeman, Zach Sieler, Gus Edwards, Chris Board
I don't know about you guys but I've noticed something - I'd say fairly unambiguously that 2016 and 2018 are the 2 best drafts from the last 5 and they have something in common with each other - LOTS OF PICKS - in both drafts Ozzie manoeuvred around the draft board to get extra selections - get the guy he wanted in Lamar but also trade down and around to get value picks in deep classes and allow talented players to fall to the Ravens.
That old adage about the draft being a lottery and therefore the more tickets you have the better your odds does kind of bare out. You'd like to think that your odds of hitting on higher picks are better and to an extent that is the case but our 2nd round picks (and even 3rd round picks) have been suspect since... a long time. It looks like Andrews and Brown Jr have beaten that curse of 3rd rounders and so has Chris Wormley (and hopefully if Tim Williams can stay on the field he can kick on like I thought he would this year). It's a meme but maybe we really don't need 2nd round picks, especially given the value of allowing the draft to come to us and recouping value through extra picks.
I think a crucial addendum to this though is that you'll notice that we don't seem to play around in the 1st round to get our guy for the most part and I think that's probably critical to our success and helps us amass playmakers. (And while I disagree with the Hurst vs Derwin James argument straight up I think you can compare the strategy of this year vs previous years and see a difference). Ronnie Stanley we stood pat at 6, Marlon Humphrey we stood pat at 16, CJ Mosley we stood pat at 17 and we took the playmakers that fell to us and got instant contributions. Breshad Perriman looked like a reach for need in a class that was always going to be short on playmakers and draftable players and was one of those cases when the Ravens probably should have manoeuvred for value. You can criticise the pick but it was a case of not getting fancy with playmakers in round 1.
Which brings us to 2018's 2 first rounders and a distinct change in strategy (perhaps because it's partly Eric DeCosta's class as much as Ozzie's or maybe it's just purely the circumstances). Sitting at 16 the Ravens did not stand pat and take the playmaker that fell to them, in stead leveraging value and trading down... twice and picking a player who's very much a need and was likely one of 2 or 3 targets the whole time. And through injury or not, Hurst's contributions have been disappointing - not disappointing enough to compare to Perriman but disappointing enough to consider the value of those extra picks vs Derwin James at 16 (who went 1 pick later to the Chargers). Part of that trade down value though is the capital to move back into the first to pick up Lamar Jackson at 32. Where the process of getting Hurst was seemingly about taking value and letting a select group of players fall to your lap at a spot you're comfortable with, Lamar is a case of making sure you go up and get your guy. Those strategies differ wildly from each other but they also collectively differ from previous years.
They almost seem to be a hybrid of what worked in 2016 i.e. being proactive in amassing picks and allowing players to fall to you but also something new that the Ravens haven't done for a while which is take a risk and going and spending capital on a playmaker... going up and getting YOUR guy.
There are always reports after every draft about who the Ravens were inevitably trying to see if they could go up and get but ultimately the value was too much. Not trading up with Dallas to go and get Jalen Ramsey for a 3rd round pick despite that pick turning into Bronson Kaufusi who didn't even make it to his 3rd year, not trading up in 2017 to go and get Haason Reddick (which turned out fortuitously) but also it's likely a response to those times when teams have outmanoeuvred the Ravens to go up and get that guy who the Ravens hoped would fall into their laps who then didn't.
2018 felt like a response to all the things the Ravens have learned over the last few years. Extra volume, targeting playmakers, but also not being afraid to go up and get your guy. But if you're not in love with the guys who are there at your spot, you go down and get extra value and let someone fall to you.
It's that classic case of letting the draft come to you and balancing out all those ideas about good drafting - need vs talent, extra chances vs playmakers. 2018 seems like a happy medium between all those ideas.
TL;DR: I realise that's a lot of text and a lot of it is what I've got out of this exercise and it's hard to summarise so I won't. Ideally what I'd like to get out of this thread is what you all think about the way our draft strategies have changed since 2014, whether there are common themes that are instructive or suggest certain outcomes. I didn't talk about it above but I'd be interested in what your opinions are on the subject of double dipping at positions - see EDGE in 2017, TE in both 2015 and 2018 etc.
Basically what trends do you notice with regards to the success or failure of ravens drafts. And it could be stuff as simple as "well the whole draft class for the entire NFL sucked that year e.g. 2015".
Thanks for reading
2014: CJ Mosley, Brent Urban, James Hurst, Zach Orr (retired), Timmy Jernigan (traded for equivalent value of 3rd round pick)
- An initially good looking rookie class that ultimately fizzled out for various reasons like injuries, retirements (urschel and orr) and underperforming players - that said Mosley, Urban and even Hurst have all been great pickups for this team but you'd hope for more than 2 draft picks to stick to the team for 5 seasons
- For a year much maligned, only 2 players from this ravens draft class aren't still in the NFL - 1 is Tray Walker (RIP) and the other is Robert Myers... Now that is in no way a defence of this class which was pretty poor (albeit looking around the NFL this was a pretty abysmal draft year overall) and was the year that nearly ended the ravens udfa roster streak but Terrance Magee made it work on a week 1 technicality - Easton became an interior starter with 1 good year so far in Minnesota but that's not who he was when he left Baltimore or San Francisco
- The development of Boyle and ZDS are the redeeming elements of this class - much maligned in and of themselves they are both key parts on either side of the ball on this year's team - Boyle has been a critical cog in our offensive reinvention with his play in the running game and ZDS is our sack leader
- Similarly to the 2013 class this is one that is redeemed by some of the less flashy picks when top picks have failed to make an impact (and seemingly a strength of Ozzie through his whole time with the team is that he has consistently at least 1 or 2 players in every draft to contribute - no complete dead rubbers)
- Ironically the Browns have a larger number of our top picks from this class on their team than we do - both Perriman and Davis are active Browns and only Maxx is still a Raven (and is not a lock to be active on gamedays)
- An objectively insane draft class in review below:
- A franchise Left Tackle in Ronnie Stanley
- An all-pro level defensive tackle in Michael Pierce (who has been unbelievable this year - for anyone in doubt watch the video @Edgar did on his youtube channel
- A streaky but at times dominant edge rusher who can also drop into coverage in Matt Judon
- A good slot corner and his above replacement level backup in Tavon Young and Maurice Canady
- A starting WLB who when met with competition vs draft picks has raised his game repeatedly in Patrick "Peanut" Onwuasor
- An (until recently) seemingly serviceable starting LG in Alex Lewis who is at least a high level backup at guard but maybe serviceable at tackle as well in
- A starting (albeit begrudgingly from a fan point of view) centre in Matt Skura
- A punish running back with decent receiving skills in Kenneth Dixon who would probably have been the starter if not for unfortunate injuries and a couple of suspensions
- A starting DL and probably the best interior rusher on the roster in Willie Henry
- A special teams ninja and ok 4th receiver (probably his ceiling) in Chris Moore
- That's 11 players still on our team but we also got a 6th rounder out of Correa (which is disappointing but not nothing)
- N.B. in case you wanted another reason to admire this class - Will Lutz the 2nd leading points scorer in the NFL this year got his start from our kicking tree
- It's kind of amazing that we completely missed on the 2nd and 3rd round picks but ultimately still had a class that has yielded 10 players with starts (and not just on technicalities)
- This is an historic draft and is the backbone of the 2018 Ravens team and these guys all still have at least a year left on their rookie deals (except for Pierce and Skura who are RFAs)
- An class that looked initially like it was going to instantly pay off has disappointed for various reasons in some cases and it's important to remember that this is only year 2
- Marlon Humphrey has been an all-pro level corner as a sophomore
- Chris Wormley has been part of the 4 DL rotation that has given opposing offences fits and has started at times (although in that 4 DL rotation getting the start doesn't mean a whole lot) throughout 2018 and will likely be the reason why the Ravens will be comfortable allowing Brent Urban to leave (if they do)
- Tyus Bowser and Timmy Williams as edge rushers have disappointed - Tyus doesn't look like a great fit but is an exciting athlete and Timmy Williams has struggled to get on the field despite showing great promise when on the field
- Eluemunor has started and played snaps in emergencies but has shown nothing to indicate he deserves time outside of those emergencies and has done nothing to indicate the ravens shouldn't attempt to replace him
- Chuck Clark seemingly out of nowhere and overdrafted has steadily become a contributor - the Big Nickel and 3rd safety on this number 1 defence - he adds speed and good special teams play to this defence and is following the pathway trodden by Anthony Levine 5 years before him from special teams to defensive impact albeit Clark is already getting time at nickel and safety as well as the occasional dime snap
- Bradley and Hill's injuries have kept them from making an impact and you have to think that with the emergence of Kenny Young and Peanut's improvement that Bradley is going to struggle to ever fully make it onto the 53 (especially with the special teams play of a 2018 rookie)
- Project Pat's impact on offence is basically null since Lamar took over the start but is seemingly the 5th DL ahead of Sieler - he's earned his chance at that role via his two-way play but has developed his craft and taken that spot but is probably as far as he can go because of Brandon Williams and Michael Pierce ahead of him - some questionable statements emerging from his past probably have him on the roster bubble going into next year depending on how Henry returns from injury, whether Urban returns as a free agent and whether Sieler continues to develop because his ability to play full back is unlikely to factor moving forwards
2018: Hayden Hurst, Lamar Jackson, Orlando Brown Jr, Mark Andrews, Anthony Averett, Kenny Young, Jaleel Scott, Jordan Lasley, Deshon Elliott, Greg Senat, Bradley Bozeman, Zach Sieler, Gus Edwards, Chris Board
- Difficult to make grand sweeping statements on this class yet but early returns are pretty good
- Franchise QB in Lamar Jackson
- Playmaking TE in Mark Andrews
- Starting RT in Orlando Brown Jr
- Potential playmaking TE in Hayden Hurst
- Starting RB in Gus Edwards
- Promising young LB who's been part of the rotation at WLB and who pushed for starter snaps and got them in CJ Mosley's absence early in the year in Kenny Young
- Depth value cornerback in Anthony Averett who's played well in limited snaps
- Backup IOL who's pushing Hurst and Lewis for starting snaps at LG in Bradley Bozeman
- Special teams tackler in Chris Board
- That's 9 rookie contributors and pretty large contributors too
- Some interesting players who haven't contributed also: Deshon Elliott who looked rangier and faster than he did in college before getting injured and looked nailed on for a spot on the 53 and will have a chance to compete for snaps next year, Jordan Lasley who has promise but has been a healthy scratch all year (the ravens like him enough to keep him on the 53), likewise Sieler who's been very rarely activated but like Lasley the Ravens like enough to basically redshirt, Senat who looked like he might be able to develop into a swing tackle and has the traits, Jaleel Scott is only on this list because he's still technically a raven - he looked like he was overdrafted and showed basically nothing in his opportunities - he's likely only still a raven because he's on i/r
I don't know about you guys but I've noticed something - I'd say fairly unambiguously that 2016 and 2018 are the 2 best drafts from the last 5 and they have something in common with each other - LOTS OF PICKS - in both drafts Ozzie manoeuvred around the draft board to get extra selections - get the guy he wanted in Lamar but also trade down and around to get value picks in deep classes and allow talented players to fall to the Ravens.
That old adage about the draft being a lottery and therefore the more tickets you have the better your odds does kind of bare out. You'd like to think that your odds of hitting on higher picks are better and to an extent that is the case but our 2nd round picks (and even 3rd round picks) have been suspect since... a long time. It looks like Andrews and Brown Jr have beaten that curse of 3rd rounders and so has Chris Wormley (and hopefully if Tim Williams can stay on the field he can kick on like I thought he would this year). It's a meme but maybe we really don't need 2nd round picks, especially given the value of allowing the draft to come to us and recouping value through extra picks.
I think a crucial addendum to this though is that you'll notice that we don't seem to play around in the 1st round to get our guy for the most part and I think that's probably critical to our success and helps us amass playmakers. (And while I disagree with the Hurst vs Derwin James argument straight up I think you can compare the strategy of this year vs previous years and see a difference). Ronnie Stanley we stood pat at 6, Marlon Humphrey we stood pat at 16, CJ Mosley we stood pat at 17 and we took the playmakers that fell to us and got instant contributions. Breshad Perriman looked like a reach for need in a class that was always going to be short on playmakers and draftable players and was one of those cases when the Ravens probably should have manoeuvred for value. You can criticise the pick but it was a case of not getting fancy with playmakers in round 1.
Which brings us to 2018's 2 first rounders and a distinct change in strategy (perhaps because it's partly Eric DeCosta's class as much as Ozzie's or maybe it's just purely the circumstances). Sitting at 16 the Ravens did not stand pat and take the playmaker that fell to them, in stead leveraging value and trading down... twice and picking a player who's very much a need and was likely one of 2 or 3 targets the whole time. And through injury or not, Hurst's contributions have been disappointing - not disappointing enough to compare to Perriman but disappointing enough to consider the value of those extra picks vs Derwin James at 16 (who went 1 pick later to the Chargers). Part of that trade down value though is the capital to move back into the first to pick up Lamar Jackson at 32. Where the process of getting Hurst was seemingly about taking value and letting a select group of players fall to your lap at a spot you're comfortable with, Lamar is a case of making sure you go up and get your guy. Those strategies differ wildly from each other but they also collectively differ from previous years.
They almost seem to be a hybrid of what worked in 2016 i.e. being proactive in amassing picks and allowing players to fall to you but also something new that the Ravens haven't done for a while which is take a risk and going and spending capital on a playmaker... going up and getting YOUR guy.
There are always reports after every draft about who the Ravens were inevitably trying to see if they could go up and get but ultimately the value was too much. Not trading up with Dallas to go and get Jalen Ramsey for a 3rd round pick despite that pick turning into Bronson Kaufusi who didn't even make it to his 3rd year, not trading up in 2017 to go and get Haason Reddick (which turned out fortuitously) but also it's likely a response to those times when teams have outmanoeuvred the Ravens to go up and get that guy who the Ravens hoped would fall into their laps who then didn't.
2018 felt like a response to all the things the Ravens have learned over the last few years. Extra volume, targeting playmakers, but also not being afraid to go up and get your guy. But if you're not in love with the guys who are there at your spot, you go down and get extra value and let someone fall to you.
It's that classic case of letting the draft come to you and balancing out all those ideas about good drafting - need vs talent, extra chances vs playmakers. 2018 seems like a happy medium between all those ideas.
TL;DR: I realise that's a lot of text and a lot of it is what I've got out of this exercise and it's hard to summarise so I won't. Ideally what I'd like to get out of this thread is what you all think about the way our draft strategies have changed since 2014, whether there are common themes that are instructive or suggest certain outcomes. I didn't talk about it above but I'd be interested in what your opinions are on the subject of double dipping at positions - see EDGE in 2017, TE in both 2015 and 2018 etc.
Basically what trends do you notice with regards to the success or failure of ravens drafts. And it could be stuff as simple as "well the whole draft class for the entire NFL sucked that year e.g. 2015".
Thanks for reading
