The 2023 Offseason Thread

[rmcjacket23]

I don't think Lamar is going to sign a Mahomes/Allen style super long term contract, so the risks of that type of attrition/decline are reduced.

Fully guaranteed or not, most QB contracts have more guarantees that get triggered with every year they stay on the roster, so the risk of being worse off than any other team without a fully guaranteed QB reduces with every year that passes.

Even if Lamar lost his speed as a runner, I believe his ability to make people miss in the pocket and in space as a scrambler is mostly in his head, rather than his legs, so a Cam style decline isn't that likely. A Lamar who lost his designed run ability would still have a Mahomes-like ability to buy time and pick up scramble yards - if not the same passing ability.

I just don't think the football case against giving Lamar a fully guaranteed deal is that strong.

I agree with the second paragraph, but that's only because the presumption is he'll be good, healthy, etc. for at least a substantial portion of the early contract. The Owner doesn't want to be the guy that finds out that Deshaun Watson, in fact, has regressed badly, and is replacement level, in year 2-3 of a 5 year fully gtd extension.

Lamar ain't signing the 10 year that Mahomes did. Very few ever do that. But a 5-6 year contract is very much in play. At least 4 years is pretty much the norm. Most do 5.

 

[RavensMania]

More money than Watson got in terms of what?

Total more money than Watson? Sure, he should get more. Wilson, Murray, Allen and Mahomes have more total $ on their deal than Watson.

AAV? Sure, I guess. Watson's AAV is $46M. Kyler and Wilson got more. Like I'm fine with it, except then it just goes back to the hypocrisy of the argument, because more than Watson also means he deserves more AAV than Mahomes, Allen, and possibly even Rodgers. What's the argument that he should get a higher AAV than those guys?

Guaranteed $? If he's asking for more than Watson, then he's probably a fool. Watson's guaranteed $ at signing is like double the next closest QB, and his practical guarantees are like $40M more than the next closest QB.

To make it simpler... if Lamar wants more than $230M guaranteed, over a 5 year deal, he's not getting it from the Ravens, and I don't think he'll get it from any other team in the league either.
He can get that much, but it won't be for that time period. 6,7,8 years, sure.

yes, I'm talking more money, not more guarantees.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Kirk's contract is 1 year, $35 mil. fully guaranteed. Again, how is that relevant?

Nobody is going to structure a contract like Watson's. Again, it would be dumber than dumb. lol

YEAR		AGE	BASE SALARY	SIGNING	CAP HIT	DEAD CAP	YEARLY CASH
2022		27	$402,500	$8,993,000	$9,395,500	$229,367,500	$45,367,500($45,367,500)
2023		28	$46,000,000	$8,993,000	$54,993,000	$219,972,000	$46,000,000($91,367,500)
2024		29	$46,000,000	$8,993,000	$54,993,000	$164,979,000	$46,000,000($137,367,500)
2025		30	$46,000,000	$8,993,000	$54,993,000	$109,986,000	$46,000,000($183,367,500)
2026		31	$46,000,000	$8,993,000	$54,993,000	$54,993,000	$46,000,000($229,367,

Well two things on this:
1. Cousins did two fully gtd extensions before that. He did 3/84 in 2018, fully gtd, and he did 2/66, fully gtd, in 2020. Via three different contracts, Cousins has gotten 5 years, $155M, fully gtd from the Vikings, and is getting another $30M, fully gtd (minimum) in 2023.
2. Watson's structure is actually pretty brilliant. The flat base salaries every year make it extremely easy to restructure every year. He's not playing 2023 under a $55M cap hit. They'll take his salary, convert large chunk to bonus, and prorate.
And assuming he plays well, once he gets to like 2025, and his cap hit is like $70M, they'll just do another extension and spread it longer.

The downside, as we're discussing, is if he doesn't play better, and you want to dump him after this deal is done, its 100% dead money with no cap savings at the end.

 

[Simba]

Kirk's contract is 1 year, $35 mil. fully guaranteed. Again, how is that relevant?

Nobody is going to structure a contract like Watson's. Again, it would be dumber than dumb. lol

YEAR		AGE	BASE SALARY	SIGNING	CAP HIT	DEAD CAP	YEARLY CASH
2022		27	$402,500	$8,993,000	$9,395,500	$229,367,500	$45,367,500($45,367,500)
2023		28	$46,000,000	$8,993,000	$54,993,000	$219,972,000	$46,000,000($91,367,500)
2024		29	$46,000,000	$8,993,000	$54,993,000	$164,979,000	$46,000,000($137,367,500)
2025		30	$46,000,000	$8,993,000	$54,993,000	$109,986,000	$46,000,000($183,367,500)
2026		31	$46,000,000	$8,993,000	$54,993,000	$54,993,000	$46,000,000($229,367,

Even furthermore on the Watson thing, that contract already looks like a disaster based on his on-field play. I'd expect he'll probably be better next year after the long layoff, but it still looks like something they'd probably want to get out of sooner than 2027 as of now. Don't think teams are going to be lining up to do the same thing.

 

[gtalk12]

You say the expectation is that good qbs play well till their 35. Most of them actually do, but with the new generation of "mobile" QBs, no more. I really want Lamar back, but i would say that I only want him for like 4 more years. If he's still playing well then, maybe give him a 2yr deal. I'm extremely wary of signing Lamar for longer than that.

I think with all the data we have on mobile QBs over the last 10 years that we can kind of see a pattern. Part of the problem with mobile Qbs seems to be both the QB and the teams reliance on said QBs legs.

To me, it does not make sense to build an offense around your Qbs legs. I would argue that you build the offense around their arm and let them create when it's time with their legs ala Russell Wilson. You have Marshawn back there, no reason to run your QB if you don't have to.

Cam Newton use to run through defenders. The team banked off of him too much doing that in my opinion and though he was still athletic towards the end of his tenure you could tell he was not the same.

Protect mobile Qbs like you would pocket statues. The best way to me is going to be with a running game that does not rely on the QB all the time.

 

[rmcjacket23]

yes, I'm talking more money, not more guarantees.

And that's fine. I'm guessing allblackraven isn't, though. I'm guessing when he's talking more $, he means more gtd $.

The total money honestly means nothing to me. They can sign him for 20 years at $1 billion for all I care. If its only like 15-20% gtd, the rest is just fluff.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Even furthermore on the Watson thing, that contract already looks like a disaster based on his on-field play. I'd expect he'll probably be better next year after the long layoff, but it still looks like something they'd probably want to get out of sooner than 2027 as of now. Don't think teams are going to be lining up to do the same thing.

Its the biggest wildcard and unknown for me. Like I said, if he's not at least a high-end QB in the next year or two, and the Browns aren't winning, every Owner in the league is going to take notice and use it against every player that asks for it the next time their contract comes up.

Would be disaster for the NFLPA to finally get a player get a 5 year, fully gtd deal, and then totally shits the bed on the field with it.

 

[Simba]

Its the biggest wildcard and unknown for me. Like I said, if he's not at least a high-end QB in the next year or two, and the Browns aren't winning, every Owner in the league is going to take notice and use it against every player that asks for it the next time their contract comes up.

Would be disaster for the NFLPA to finally get a player get a 5 year, fully gtd deal, and then totally shits the bed on the field with it.

Yeah like, the Browns completely fucked themselves if he doesn't improve over what he showed last season. Either they roll with the deal as is and eat the cost, or they continue extending him and furthering the pain. It's a lose-lose for a team with the shitty on-field product.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Even furthermore on the Watson thing, that contract already looks like a disaster based on his on-field play. I'd expect he'll probably be better next year after the long layoff, but it still looks like something they'd probably want to get out of sooner than 2027 as of now. Don't think teams are going to be lining up to do the same thing.

And in addition, I'm probably the lone wolf on this, but if I'm Lamar, there's two things I absolutely don't want to see happen in the next 12 months...
1. I don't want to see other QBs sign deals that aren't fully gtd or are in-line with contracts like Wilson/Murray. Guys like Burrow and Herbert will sign for more in terms of AAV than those guys, but what % is gtd and what it looks like will be critical for Lamar.
2. I don't want Watson to play shitty.

If both of those things happen, Lamar loses a ton of leverage both with the Ravens and with the league itself.

 

[QtR Nevermore]

Kirk's contract is 1 year, $35 mil. fully guaranteed. Again, how is that relevant?

Good QBs get fully guaranteed deals when there's a bidding war. Cousins and Watson did. Lamar definitely would. I wasn't talking about Kirk's current deal.

 

[BoredMarine13]

Any new qb we get will likely be a bum.. derek carr is in fact trash and thats likely the best qb we could possibly get… then theres arod……

I only want to focus on drafting rookie with any picks acquired from the trade. I got confidence inEDC to find him and John to coach him up

 

[gtalk12]

Yeah like, the Browns completely fucked themselves if he doesn't improve over what he showed last season. Either they roll with the deal as is and eat the cost, or they continue extending him and furthering the pain. It's a lose-lose for a team with the shitty on-field product.

I don't think anybody was expecting Watson to look good this year

 

[Tank]

Well two things on this:
1. Cousins did two fully gtd extensions before that. He did 3/84 in 2018, fully gtd, and he did 2/66, fully gtd, in 2020. Via three different contracts, Cousins has gotten 5 years, $155M, fully gtd from the Vikings, and is getting another $30M, fully gtd (minimum) in 2023.
2. Watson's structure is actually pretty brilliant. The flat base salaries every year make it extremely easy to restructure every year. He's not playing 2023 under a $55M cap hit. They'll take his salary, convert large chunk to bonus, and prorate.
And assuming he plays well, once he gets to like 2025, and his cap hit is like $70M, they'll just do another extension and spread it longer.

The downside, as we're discussing, is if he doesn't play better, and you want to dump him after this deal is done, its 100% dead money with no cap savings at the end.

1. Fully guaranteed, one or 2 years at time, mitigates the risk. 5 or 6 not so much.

2. You and I have much different definition of brilliant. lol

 

[Thezone27]

I think with all the data we have on mobile QBs over the last 10 years that we can kind of see a pattern. Part of the problem with mobile Qbs seems to be both the QB and the teams reliance on said QBs legs.

To me, it does not make sense to build an offense around your Qbs legs. I would argue that you build the offense around their arm and let them create when it's time with their legs ala Russell Wilson. You have Marshawn back there, no reason to run your QB if you don't have to.

Cam Newton use to run through defenders. The team banked off of him too much doing that in my opinion and though he was still athletic towards the end of his tenure you could tell he was not the same.

Protect mobile Qbs like you would pocket statues. The best way to me is going to be with a running game that does not rely on the QB all the time.

And we have JK

 

[Thezone27]

I don't think anybody was expecting Watson to look good this year

I was sure hoping he wouldn't

 

[gtalk12]

We would have to know what Lamar wants in order to really get this discussion going.

 

[gtalk12]

And we have JK

I want an OC that isn't going to rely on Lamar Jackson running. That should be his secret weapon and a well he decides to tap into. Last year Lamar started off hot throwing the ball but due to all those injuries and lack of run game he had to also take the ground game over the top.

That's alot imo. You have a QB that is tapping into 1k rush territory year in and year out barring injury.

 

[rossihunter2]

Kirk's contract is 1 year, $35 mil. fully guaranteed. Again, how is that relevant?

Nobody is going to structure a contract like Watson's. Again, it would be dumber than dumb. lol

YEAR		AGE	BASE SALARY	SIGNING	CAP HIT	DEAD CAP	YEARLY CASH
2022		27	$402,500	$8,993,000	$9,395,500	$229,367,500	$45,367,500($45,367,500)
2023		28	$46,000,000	$8,993,000	$54,993,000	$219,972,000	$46,000,000($91,367,500)
2024		29	$46,000,000	$8,993,000	$54,993,000	$164,979,000	$46,000,000($137,367,500)
2025		30	$46,000,000	$8,993,000	$54,993,000	$109,986,000	$46,000,000($183,367,500)
2026		31	$46,000,000	$8,993,000	$54,993,000	$54,993,000	$46,000,000($229,367,

because when kirk cousins signed his first deal with the vikings he was the highest paid QB in the league and it was a fully guaranteed deal
that's why it's relevant - the last 2 "franchise" QBs to hit the "open" market have both got fully guaranteed contracts from other teams...

 

[rossihunter2]

I agree with the second paragraph, but that's only because the presumption is he'll be good, healthy, etc. for at least a substantial portion of the early contract. The Owner doesn't want to be the guy that finds out that Deshaun Watson, in fact, has regressed badly, and is replacement level, in year 2-3 of a 5 year fully gtd extension.

Lamar ain't signing the 10 year that Mahomes did. Very few ever do that. But a 5-6 year contract is very much in play. At least 4 years is pretty much the norm. Most do 5.

some reports suggested that one of the ravens later deals to lamar before the close of the negotiating window before the season was a 6 year deal

 

[rossihunter2]

Yeah like, the Browns completely fucked themselves if he doesn't improve over what he showed last season. Either they roll with the deal as is and eat the cost, or they continue extending him and furthering the pain. It's a lose-lose for a team with the shitty on-field product.

and completely self-inflicted...
they gave all that money to a QB who hadnt played football for a year and then was suspended for nearly a season

lots of players dont come back the same when they voluntarily skip out on seasons