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The Forty, the Fumble, and the Fucking Déjà Vu

Simba said:
I feel like I've gotten pretty good at evaluating ST units, so here are my thoughts on game 1...


High quality:
Hummel, Kane, Wallace, Buchanan (already)

Showing signs:
Higgins, Martin, Walker, Ali

Lack discipline and patience:
Simpson, Tampa

Probably shouldn't take a ST snap again:
Green

Other quality guys that will seemingly take reps but they'll be limited based on role:
Kolar, Robinson


So we're not far from a good unit, but we need guys at the lower rungs to graduate to the one above them fast for the whole thing to come together. That's why I see them prioritizing a guy like JT Gray sooner rather than later.
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this is why JAD feels like a miss - he was a really solid gunner who could also play other roles in your coverage teams
 
Florida Raven Fan said:
The problem is we're doing it in the most important games. We got bounced by these guy's in the playoffs and it seems like we didn't learn anything. Yes, it comes down to player execution, eliminating mistakes, etc.. but I just can't stand how Harbaugh rarely ever holds himself accountable. He does allude to the play-calling in this statement but you'd think they would of learned this by now. We get a lead and instead of adding to the lead they play to protect the lead and not lose. Total mentality change when we have a lead. I kept saying it was too close for comfort a 15 pt lead with that much time left and they let off the gas like always. One thing I admired from Belichick was that even with a big lead they would not let down and just kept scoring.
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Exactly, my biggest pain point is that after 2019 we lost to Tennessee we lose to them in 2020 as the better team (yes playoffs avenged - but we let them beat us at home 2x in a row as the far better team)

Last year we do it to the chiefs
This year to buffalo

+ any time we play in pittsburgh

You just know when the team will fail to show up and it's against anyone who choked to- we choke again. And we're always on the other side of some miracle. I believe we were up 11 on the titans in 2020 regular season. @ Pitt games have been a coin flip we lost every time and we call it unlucky. We are always on the other side of the"luck" to the point it clearly isn't luck
 
rmcjacket23 said:
OK, and? He doesn't give a fuck about the media or what the fans think. Why would ya'll think he does?
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Do you realize that im not saying he cares? You said fans, and im just letting you know its not only fans that its media too. I dnt think ive ever blamed anything on harbaugh before..
 
Saw Jeff tweet that Harbaugh said he questioned if Hamilton graduated from Notre Dame with how foolish the lateral was.

Harbaugh is a bitch and he's feeling the pressure of being under the gun. You say, I get where he was coming from, they were coming back and he new there was an opportunity to have the defense out up 2 critical points. With that being said, given the nature of that exact play, we wouldn't coach that. We talked about it and it was a really valuable piece of film for the whole team.

Instead out of everyone he could pick on and pass the blame, he chooses Hamilton. Smh
 
UPennChem said:
Saw Jeff tweet that Harbaugh said he questioned if Hamilton graduated from Notre Dame with how foolish the lateral was.

Harbaugh is a bitch and he's feeling the pressure of being under the gun. You say, I get where he was coming from, they were coming back and he new there was an opportunity to have the defense out up 2 critical points. With that being said, given the nature of that exact play, we wouldn't coach that. We talked about it and it was a really valuable piece of film for the whole team.

Instead out of everyone he could pick on and pass the blame, he chooses Hamilton. Smh
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I think harbaugh was just joking. Its pretty clear that hamilton is pretty intelligent so im assuming harbaugh is just being funny. Hamilton probably saw something too though, it looked like jaire had open field on that other side. If the guy he pitched it to wouldve pitched it to jaire, jaire maybe couldve got those two points from what i seen
 
We’re all centric to our narratives but I’ve had a few ppl text me saying the Bills got really lucky with the tipped pass.

If we get to 4-1 this won’t matter sort of
 
rossihunter2 said:
we win big games in primetime
but not close big games

Let me check:

Close/Crazy games:

2025 Wk 1 @ Bills - Lost
2024 Divisional Round @ Bills - Lost
2024 Wk 11 @ Steelers - Lost
2024 Wk 10 vs Bengals - Won
2024 Wk 5 @ Bengals - Won
2024 Wk 3 @ Cowboys - Won (idk if this one fits the criteria, was nearly an embarrassing loss but wasn't really a close game, just a crazy ending)
2024 Wk 2 vs Raiders - Lost
2024 Wk 1 @ Chiefs - Lost
2023 Championship Round vs Chiefs - Lost
2023 Wk 14 vs Rams - Won
2023 Wk 10 vs Browns - Lost
2023 Wk 5 @ Steelers - Lost
2023 Wk 3 vs Colts - Lost
2023 Wk 2 vs Bengals - Won (i think this one counts but not completely sure)
(not going to include non-Lamar games in 2022 or 2021)
2022 Wk 12 @ Jags - Lost
2022 Wk 7 vs Browns - Won
2022 Wk 6 @ Giants - Lost
2022 Wk 5 vs Bengals - Won
2022 Wk 4 vs Bills - Lost
2022 Wk 2 vs Dolphins - Lost
2021 Wk 13 @ Steelers - Lost
2021 Wk 12 vs Browns - Won
2021 Wk 9 vs Vikings - Won
2021 Wk 5 vs Colts - Won
2021 Wk 3 @ Lions - Won
2021 Wk 2 vs Chiefs - Won
2021 Wk 1 @ Raiders - Lost

all this is reminding me how ridiculous the 2021 season was lol so many comebacks and crazy games

42% win rate over this whole period, 44% if we include the Cowboys game
If we exclude the crazy 2021 year though, the win rates drop to 32% and 35% respectively

that's abysmal for a team that you'd expect to be favourites in most of these games - you should expect generally this to average out a lot closer to 50% at worst, and actually you'd expect a good team like the ravens to be winning more of these games than they lose

obviously this doesn't show the full picture, the part that's missing is that there are a lot of wins missing because they were never close at all which is good, the problem is that when it gets close (either because it was always close or because a comeback's on) the ravens seem to shrink
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Lamar was carrying some awful talent in 2021-2022, the Jags game he had a great bomb to Jackson lmao. It’s still obnoxious to see Bills fans say Derrick Henry is the MVP as if Lamar didn’t win 2 without him.

Not sure how but Bills fans may have temporarily surpassed Cheifs and Bengals fans right now. I like @Carptom1 and we let him down week 1
 
Deebo813 said:
I think harbaugh was just joking. Its pretty clear that hamilton is pretty intelligent so im assuming harbaugh is just being funny. Hamilton probably saw something too though, it looked like jaire had open field on that other side. If the guy he pitched it to wouldve pitched it to jaire, jaire maybe couldve got those two points from what i seen
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I haven’t seen the Harbaugh clip but that 100% has to be a friendly jab
 
OURavensFan said:
We’re all centric to our narratives but I’ve had a few ppl text me saying the Bills got really lucky with the tipped pass.

If we get to 4-1 this won’t matter sort of
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if we get to 4-1 we'll have beaten the lions, chiefs, texans and rams so yeah... that's absolutely a good place to be in
 
Deebo813 said:
Do you realize that im not saying he cares? You said fans, and im just letting you know its not only fans that its media too. I dnt think ive ever blamed anything on harbaugh before..
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Media = fans. The difference is one gets paid to know very little, and the other doesn't.

The point is that public pressure doesn't mean anything until the public acts on it. People have the balls to bitch about whatever they want. What they don't have the balls to do is turn off the TV. That's why public backlash doesn't mean anything.
 
So, here's some food for thought.

The Ravens blitzed about 26% of the passing snaps in the fourth quarter (highest of any quarter against the Bills) and rushed over 50% of the offensive snaps, according to PFF.

Generally speaking, fans of teams bemoan defenses getting conservative and offenses not burning the clock (this is something that I loathed from the Falcons in their Super Bowl against the Patriots. I thought if they had simply run the ball, burned the clock, and kicked the field goal, they'd have won the Super Bowl.) The Ravens actually got more aggressive than they had been and tried to milk the clock offensively.

If the Ravens had actually blitzed less and relied on four man rushes and played more aggressively offensively, failing to complete passes, would we bemoan that, too? Or would we have been okay with the loss because they tried something different?
 
Fun fact:

With the Bears loss last night, they bumped themselves up to eight losses since 2020 when winning by 7+ in the fourth. That puts them ahead of Tennessee who has six. However, that only puts the Bears in second place.

The first place team? The Ravens... with 11.

Also fun fact: the Ravens have lost now eight games since 2020 when their win probability was 80%+. That's the most in the NFL.

Also fun fact: John Harbaugh was the second lowest win% all time among current coaches when he has an 80%+ chance win probability, only behind Andy Reid. If you isolated that to just Reid's KC tenure, I'm very willing to bet Harbaugh is undisputed number 1.

His win percentage in these situations is 80.3%, which is below average when you consider the range is 80.0%-99.9%. We'd expect, on average, that the number is closer to 90% of games won. That means the Ravens are probably going to lose a game or two every single year they they really should have won.
 
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