I do see where he coming from when i think about it. Its maybe hard to hit on an all pro qb but not one that can simply win you games…. but then again its less qbs to choose from than any other position so qbs may actually be harder
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Signings, Cuts, Trades
- Thread starter RavensMania
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My benchmark was an average QB, who would make 40m per year, compared to finding a 20m talent at other positions. The reason for this metric is you have to find not one but 2 20m+ players in order to justify paying 1 QB and you have to do it with less picks. If that is the case then I have managed to have a better team AND I have an extra 1st from only having to pick one player AND I have extra firsts from trading my QB so basically I am far ahead in terms of roster strength. We have already seen that rookie deal QBs (and Tom Brady) are the cheat code to making it to and winning the Super Bowl. My argument is merely that it might be worth just trying to keep that cheat code going.
As for Tua 3 good games with a loaded roster that is carrying him does not make him good. If that were the case you would have put Baker Mayfield as a hit because he had 11 good games with a roster that carried him thus bumping up your QB hit number further.
Finally, in what universe, using your own metrics, do you round 37 down to 30?
if you think Jones is a passable QB and you can win with him, the the conversation ended right there.
rmcjacket23
Ravens Ring of Honor
OK, but your last sentence is the point. You're comparing a group of players at one position and artificially limiting the scope of where they can be drafted, and then doing so at the other positions, thinking they're apples to apples. But, of course, they're not.
You don't need the first round "hit or miss" rate to be substantially equal between a Guard and a QB. You can find high level Guard play in other rounds, as many teams do. Frankly, that's extrapolated to basically any position that isn't QB.
Also, I've done Graduate-level Statistics courses. Nothing you're doing here would be acceptable in those environments. You could put together a model that would make numbers come out, but no person that studies Statistics or teaches them would advise you to draw literally any conclusions from it. Which, by the way, is kind of the point of Statistics.
rmcjacket23
Ravens Ring of Honor
1. Average QBs don't make $40M a year. If that's your benchmark, your benchmark sucks. You need to drop that amount down by at least $5-10M.
2. You haven't managed to have a better team until those players produce. Paying them lots of money doesn't mean they will. It may mean you're just giving out bigger contracts to players who aren't very good, because you have more money to spend (i.e. going all the way back to the point where cap space and draft picks doesn't correlate to guaranteed success, obviously).
You also can't presume to have a better team based on the fact that you have 1-2 additional high paid players. You don't know what the team that acquired your player has done, i.e. maybe they've drafted better than you, in which case they have the better team (and the better QB).
In order to remain confident in that, you'd need to a thorough assessment of FA spending and production, and then do another arbitrary "ranking" of hits or misses in FA. In reality, most of the highly paid players are going to be re-signed by their own team, so you won't have an opportunity to add them to yours anyway. In FA, the majority of the time, its just paying market value $ to players who aren't necessarily producing at those values, but because of limited supply for options, get market-value prices.
3. You can't assume you can trade the franchise QB because, again, if your model works, everybody mimics it, and then nobody pays top tier money to franchise QBs.
JoeyFlex5
Hall of Famer
It’s fucking hysterical how we’ve actually seen this shit play out and fail horribly yet people still clamor for it as if picking a qb in the draft automatically grants you a franchise qb
The conversation ended for me when he said he didn't know what to think of Fields.
Fields is atrocious right now and the Bears flat out do not trust him to throw.
JoeyFlex5
Hall of Famer
Wait who said anything about average QBs?
The NFL at any given time WILL NOT have 32 franchise worthy quarterbacks. That number drops even further when you evaluate whether or not you can conceivably win a Super Bowl with that player.
Dom McRaven
Hall of Famer
*looking at you, Bucky Brooks*
JoeyFlex5
Hall of Famer
Franchise qbs in the league right now are Lamar, allen, mahomes, Herbert, Rodgers, Brady, stafford, dak, russ, 3 of those guys could retire any year, one is far past his prime, that leaves 5 out of 9 current franchise qbs that are homegrown long term answers. the other qbs who are starting, the guys Adreme would call average, are not franchise qbs, a few of them may turn out to be, the vast majority won’t. And that’s where the problem lies, we were talking about trading an elite franchise qb for picks, and somewhere in the middle of the discussion he quietly lowers the bar to Daniel fucking jones and tua because then his argument can survive a few more posts if he can keep up the mental gymnastics.
Like I’ll talk and all but charts and statistics are definitely not a thing I’m good at nor am I gonna spend my time formulating an argument based on the metrics and standards this dude just pulled out of his ass
JoeyFlex5
Hall of Famer
We should’ve graduated
Dom McRaven
Hall of Famer
I was talking with my dad who's a Niners fan about the Lamar contract situation. He's still a hesitant on the Ravens giving him a fully gtd contract. We were also discussing this very topic of how difficult it is to find a franchise QB as 49ers (@JAAM , I'm sure you can attest to this), Colts, Jets, and Commanders fans can relate.
Basically, I told him that I rather pay him that guaranteed contract, inevitably lose some players we can't pay, and draft their replacements rather than lose my franchise QB for a king's ransom of picks that may or may not pan out. He's slowly leaning towards my side.
Basically, I told him that I rather pay him that guaranteed contract, inevitably lose some players we can't pay, and draft their replacements rather than lose my franchise QB for a king's ransom of picks that may or may not pan out. He's slowly leaning towards my side.
someone should tweet him the clip of him saying that. What a joke.
throw in the fact we could fire our coach and hire the next Sean McVay. Easy as pie.... Lets do it.
wasn't a huge fan of Fields coming out. I just didn't see anything special from Fields. I'm not sure what it is as @rossihunter2 had him as the best QB in the class. I've been rooting for him because I'd like to see that Ohio State QB jinx buried, because they have never had a good QB come out of that school, unless you think Art Schlichter was a good QB.
Willbacker
Ravens Ring of Honor
Yep. After reading the last 2 pages my brain has been crispy fried.
You put Lamar on that team and you are thinking he is a good but not great QB who cannot get it done. How I know that is I saw them put Brady on that team and he looked done then the next year he looks elite again. That team is a mess. They have no offensive coaching, no weapons to speak of, and an average at best offensive line. I thought he looked better last year, where he actually had a decent year, but having a defensive coordinator calling plays will cause that because their plays make no sense.
When a team gives you nothing it is hard for me to have an opinion on if you are something. Lawrence last year looked AWFUL, like if he did not have all the hype and you did not know he was the number 1 pick you would think he was a bust and the worst QB in the league. This year he looks great. A big part of that is they put pieces around him. Who is the Bears best offensive weapon? I do not think Fields is good but I do not want to say that when you surround a player with scrubs.
Mac Jones is ok. I thought he was the most pro ready from last years QB class with a lower ceiling than Lance, but he will never be a franchise QB and the chances of winning with him aren't good either.
I thought you were talking about Daniel Jones.