HELP: 2020 Baltimore Ravens Preview

[Professor-MJ]

Hello Ravens fans!

We are all very hopeful that the 2020 season will take place despite the pandemic.

I spent TONS of hours writing team previews for each of the league's 32 squads.

I follow the NFL very closely, but I don't pretend to be a Ravens expert as much as you guys are.

Would some of you agree to read Baltimore's 2020 outlook and let me know of potential modifications/suggestions or perhaps facts that might be flat out wrong?

I may not respond to every commenter, but please know that I am very appreciative of everybody's help!

Indeed, the final version will acknowledge the contribution of those who helped improve the preview.

A big THANK YOU!

1. Introduction

The Ravens finished as the top team in the NFL with a 14-2 record. However, the season ended on a sour note as they lost 28-to-12 at home against the Titans in the divisional round.

Baltimore finished 1st in points scored and 3rd in points allowed. It doesn’t get any better than this!

Their running game was historically great! They racked up 206 rushing yards per game on average, while the second-best in the NFL was San Francisco at “just” 144…

Can they replicate last year’s success?

2. Regular Season Wins

According to sportsbooks, the Baltimore Ravens are expected to win 11.5 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”?

Here is the methodology I used in order to answer this vital question:
• Use BetOnline.ag’s point spreads on all 256 regular season games.
• Convert those point spreads into win probabilities.
• Simulate each of the 256 games, according to those win probabilities, via the R statistical software.
• Repeat the previous step one million times (you get 1M simulated seasons).
• Count the proportion of seasons where the Ravens won more or less than 11.5 games.

Here are the results:
SEE ATTACHED FILE BELOW!
• Tip: Bet OVER 11.5 wins
• Return On Investment (ROI): +7.2%
• Rank: 27th-highest ROI out of 32 teams
• Minimum odds required to bet (i.e. ROI = 0%): -110

Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020.

3. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

QUARTERBACKS (QB)

Lamar Jackson was nothing short of spectacular. He was a lot of fun to watch. He was only the second unanimous MVP winner ever.

He ran for 1,206 yards, but he surprised many with his arm. He threw 36 TD passes versus just 6 picks.

While those numbers are jaw-dropping, I find it hard to believe he can be as good in 2020. Maybe teams will figure him out better and find ways to contain him. You cannot ask Baltimore’s quarterback position to do better in 2020 than they did in 2019.

Note that Robert Griffin III remains the Ravens’ backup QB this year.

RUNNING BACKS (RB)

Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards were a very good one-two punch (on top of having Lamar Jackson running like crazy). They will be 30 and 25 years old, respectively, so there shouldn’t be too much of a dropoff.

At first, it was believed that Justice Hill might push Gus Edwards for the number two role in 2020. The fourth-round pick out of Oklahoma State had a good rookie season.

However, Baltimore’s backfield is pretty stacked with the addition of rookie J.K. Dobbins. He is very likely to pass Edwards and Hill on the depth chart. It won’t be easy to unseat Ingram, though.

Dobbins rushed for over 2,000 yards last year, while also punching the ball in the end zone 21 times! He can also catch the ball well out of the backfield. He has the tools to become a three-down back in the NFL.

WIDE RECEIVERS (WR)

Not much change at this position either, except for the loss of Seth Roberts who caught 21 passes for 271 yards and 2 TDs. Not a big deal.

The top two targets will be back in 2020: Marquise Brown and Willie Snead.

Brown’ rookie season was a success as he caught 46 passes for 584 yards. He finished third among rookies with 7 receiving TDs. However, his college career ended with a foot injury and he says he hampered him at times during the 2019 season. He faded down the stretch, despite nice numbers in the lone playoff game. Indeed, he scored just one touchdown over the last six meetings.

Snead wasn’t particularly good. He ranked 101st out of 122 wide receivers by PFF. During the regular season, he cleared 50 receiving yards just two times. He caught 4 passes in one game, and hauled in 3 passes or less in the remaining 15 matchups.

Overall, this is a bit of a shaky group. Given his history, Marquise Brown is a likely candidate for injuries and if that happens, they will be in trouble at the wideout position. As mentioned above, Snead isn’t very strong. Seth Roberts is gone. And Miles Boykin isn’t scaring anyone either. Depth was clearly an issue here.

Most observers believed the Ravens would address the position in the draft. However, Baltimore waited until late in the 3rd round to pick a WR: Devin Duvernay out of Texas. He’s a slot weapon who caught 106 passes for 1,386 yards and 9 TDs last year. Obviously, the 106 receptions are impressive, but keep in mind that he benefited from 42 screen plays going his way.

TIGHT ENDS (TE)

The team was loaded at this position with Mark Andrews, Nick Boyle and Hayden Hurst. These guys finished 2nd, 12th, and 14th out of 66 tight ends! Having three of the top 14 TEs in the league within the same team is unbelievable!

Unfortunately, Hurst left for Atlanta. As good as he was, it won’t be a huge blow to the Ravens considering the depth they had.

OFFENSIVE LINE (OL)

All guys on the offensive line finished above-average according to PFF. Unreal!

The bad news is Marshal Yanda announced his retirement, which leaves a glaring hole at right guard. Yanda played 88% of the offensive snaps and finished as the 4th-best guard in the league (out of 81 guys). His replacement will have big shoes to fill.

One of the main candidates to replace him is free agent D.J. Fluker, who is coming over from Seattle. The 29-year-old’s play has fairly dipped over the past three seasons after four promising years with the Chargers. Fluker graded out as the number 48 guard out of 81 players in 2019.

Still, this is a very strong group, but expect a dropoff compared to last year.

2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE

How can you not expect this unit to decrease its production? They were unbelievably effective last year. They are probably going to regress towards the mean.

They didn’t add any key players on offense (except maybe rookie J.K. Dobbins?), while losing Hayden Hurst, Marshal Yanda and Seth Roberts. Teams have had several months to find ways to slow down Lamar Jackson and company. It’s highly unlikely that his numbers improve over the 2019 campaign.

Also notice how the Ravens’ offense didn’t suffer any big injury all season long to key players. It may not be the case once again in 2020. Injuries occur on a regular basis in the NFL.

Final call (2020 vs 2019):
Big downgrade-Moderate downgrade-Small downgrade-Stable-Small upgrade-Moderate upgrade-Big upgrade

4. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

DEFENSIVE LINEMEN (DL)

The Ravens had three guys on the interior of the defensive line: Brandon Williams, Michael Pierce and Chris Wormley. Each of them received “ok” ratings from PFF, as they finished 67th, 45th and 63rd respectively (out of 114 inside defenders).

Pierce and Wormley are gone. However, the team acquired Derek Wolfe from the Broncos. He recorded 7 sacks in 12 games last year and he ranked as the 46th-best inside defender.

Justin Madubuike was taken early in the 3rd round of this year’s draft. He seems like a boom-or-bust player. He’s athletic, but he is a bit short and light. He’s more likely to become a backup in the NFL.

DEFENSIVE ENDS (DE) / EDGE (ED)

Matthew Judon led the way with 9.5 sacks and Tyus Bowser got a career-high 5 sacks in 2019. Both are above-average rushers.

As for Jaylon Ferguson and Jihad Ward, they received fairly bad marks from PFF.

The Ravens made a big splash by acquiring Calais Campbell from the Jaguars. The 33-year old may slow down in 2020, but his numbers have been impressive. He has averaged 8 sacks per season over an 11-year period!

He’s also been extremely durable; he has not missed a game since 2014. As a matter of fact, he’s played at least 13 games in each of his 12 years in the NFL! He finished the 2019 season as the #2 edge defender according to PFF (only behind T.J. Watt from the Steelers).

LINEBACKERS (LB)

Patrick Onwuasor and Josh Bynes received a good share of playing time. However, both are gone. Onwuasor was the #73 linebacker while Bynes got a surprisingly high 6th spot out of 89 linebackers.
The only inside LB left with playing experience is L.J. Fort. He’s a 30-year old veteran who has played for five teams. He doesn’t look to be the long-term answer.

The good news is the Ravens selected Patrick Queen from LSU with the 28th overall pick last April. The main knock on him is clearly is lack of experience since he’s was a one-year starter in college.

However, his game film is impressive. He is very fast and he diagnoses plays quickly. He may be the only NFL-caliber linebacker the team has on their roster. It’s not as bad as it looks since Baltimore often plays with six DBs and one LB. Malik Harrison, who was picked late in the third round out of Ohio State, might get some limited playing time.

CORNERBACKS (CB)

The Ravens have a strong group here, even though Brandon Carr was let go.

The team still has Marlon Humphrey (37th-best CB), Marcus Peters (4th-best CB) and Jimmy Smith (42nd-best CB). Baltimore has a lot of ammunition and don’t need to worry about this position.

SAFETIES (S)

Earl Thomas is a safe value. He’s been consistently good throughout his career and at 31 years old he still has a few good years left.

Chuck Clark just signed a three-year contract and he deserved it. He really flourished in 2019 and finished 36th out of 87 safeties according to PFF. He is the main reason the team let Tony Jefferson go.

2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE

Baltimore’s defense allowed the third fewest points in the league in 2019. They are still going to be difficult to score against.

Calais Campbell was a great free agent acquisition. To a lesser degree, Derek Wolfe too.

However, losing Michael Pierce, Chris Wormley, Patrick Onwuasor, Josh Bynes, Brandon Carr and Tony Jefferson will hurt. Most of these guys played about 50% of the snaps and will need to be replaced.

The team has little to no depth at linebacker. Patrick Queen has a lot of pressure on his shoulders to step in and perform right away in his rookie season.

Overall, I believe the Ravens defense will see a slight decrease in its effectiveness to stop opposing offenses.

Final call (2020 vs 2019):
Big downgrade-Moderate downgrade-Small downgrade-Stable-Small upgrade-Moderate upgrade-Big upgrade

 

[rossihunter2]

it's an adequate review - it's missing quite a lot of nuance but for anyone who doesnt specifically follow the ravens it will probably do i suppose

some notes you might be interested in:

1) Teams had an entire offseason last year as well as the entire season to adjust to what lamar jackson and this offence was doing schematically so its hard to believe anyone might figure them out if they havent already... it also completely ignores the fact that the offence will evolve also

2) you're right about the WRs - but I would expect that Devin Duvernay has a decent sized role in the offence - he's a raw route runner but negating him because he caught lots of screens ignores the fact that he's great after the catch - he'll be used early in his career on quick throws that get the ball in his hands in space (but this is a minor quibble)

all in all i think its fair to suggest that the ravens offence will regress slightly given it was operating at historic levels of efficiency last year and lost a HOF calibre OL

the loss of Seth Roberts is vastly overblown in your review though

I have far more quibbles about the defensive review:

1) Calais Campbell likely plays all across the DL not just at EDGE here (it's a flexible scheme that moves front 7 and DBs all over the field to create aggressive matchup disadvantages)

2) Tavon Young is the starting slot corner and you haven't mentioned him in your piece at all (he was injured in 2019) - the Ravens have 4 starting CBs

3) Patrick Onwuasor lost his playing time by week 5 when Josh Bynes and LJ Fort joined the team and became the 2 starting linebackers - LJ Fort was retained and Bynes went to Cincinnati this offseason

This defence is demonstrably better at every single level than last year - to suggest it will regress because of the losses of a NT, a backup DL, a journeyman LB, a starting safety (but who's replacement post-injury out-played him and earned a 3 year extension) and a 36-37 yr old CB/S who was only playing in dime packages (he was listed as the starter so that he could maintain his iron-man starting streak)

not one of those players is really a major loss - Michael Pierce is probably the only one of those players we'd ever have wanted to keep but we have a probowl NT still on the team in Brandon Williams who gets to play NT again (having played 3t for a couple of years) now that Pierce is gone

i think your offensive evaluation is probably fair (if not what we're expecting here on this site) but the defensive evaluation reads as uninformed:

The DL is better
The EDGE is the same
The LBs are far better
The CBs are probably better (depends on how good Tavon is when he returns to the lineup post-injury and depends on how much better you really think this unit can get - 2 all-pros, a good slot and 9 year starting outside CB)
The Ss are the same

not one unit has got worse than when the season ended

 

[airconteka]

When it comes to offence, I think our passing game will improve and our run game will regress. Caused by an improvement in Lamar, a small leap from Boykin and a good rookie season by Duvernay as well as the defensive schemes of our opponents.

Defense as Rossi says is way off, DL is a big improvement, losing Pierce is a disappointment however Williams will improve moving back to his natural position.

Edge hasn't improved in personnel however their lives got alot easier with some decent push up the middle.

ILBs are heavily dependent on two rookies and a journeyman so thats the biggest question.

Our secondary improves with the return of Tavon and Elliot, the only concern is that whilst they are better players they are definitely not as reliable from a health perspective.

I'd be pissed if our D doesnt improve.

 

[rossihunter2]

ILBs are heavily dependent on two rookies and a journeyman so thats the biggest question.

the thing about this though is that even with it being 2 rookies and a journeyman it's still better than what we had last year which was 2 non-spectacular journeymen

interesting that bynes graded out as 6th best ILB in the league last year - surprising but shows you how just understanding the defence and doing your job in this scheme as the Mike will take you far - add in some athleticism from Queen and Harrison and if their brains are switched on it's exciting to think about

 

[airconteka]

the thing about this though is that even with it being 2 rookies and a journeyman it's still better than what we had last year which was 2 non-spectacular journeymen

interesting that bynes graded out as 6th best ILB in the league last year - surprising but shows you how just understanding the defence and doing your job in this scheme as the Mike will take you far - add in some athleticism from Queen and Harrison and if their brains are switched on it's exciting to think about

I expect the unit to improve, even so its still the biggest question mark for me.

 

[rmcjacket23]

it's an adequate review - it's missing quite a lot of nuance but for anyone who doesnt specifically follow the ravens it will probably do i suppose

some notes you might be interested in:

1) Teams had an entire offseason last year as well as the entire season to adjust to what lamar jackson and this offence was doing schematically so its hard to believe anyone might figure them out if they havent already... it also completely ignores the fact that the offence will evolve also

2) you're right about the WRs - but I would expect that Devin Duvernay has a decent sized role in the offence - he's a raw route runner but negating him because he caught lots of screens ignores the fact that he's great after the catch - he'll be used early in his career on quick throws that get the ball in his hands in space (but this is a minor quibble)

all in all i think its fair to suggest that the ravens offence will regress slightly given it was operating at historic levels of efficiency last year and lost a HOF calibre OL

the loss of Seth Roberts is vastly overblown in your review though

I have far more quibbles about the defensive review:

1) Calais Campbell likely plays all across the DL not just at EDGE here (it's a flexible scheme that moves front 7 and DBs all over the field to create aggressive matchup disadvantages)

2) Tavon Young is the starting slot corner and you haven't mentioned him in your piece at all (he was injured in 2019) - the Ravens have 4 starting CBs

3) Patrick Onwuasor lost his playing time by week 5 when Josh Bynes and LJ Fort joined the team and became the 2 starting linebackers - LJ Fort was retained and Bynes went to Cincinnati this offseason

This defence is demonstrably better at every single level than last year - to suggest it will regress because of the losses of a NT, a backup DL, a journeyman LB, a starting safety (but who's replacement post-injury out-played him and earned a 3 year extension) and a 36-37 yr old CB/S who was only playing in dime packages (he was listed as the starter so that he could maintain his iron-man starting streak)

not one of those players is really a major loss - Michael Pierce is probably the only one of those players we'd ever have wanted to keep but we have a probowl NT still on the team in Brandon Williams who gets to play NT again (having played 3t for a couple of years) now that Pierce is gone

i think your offensive evaluation is probably fair (if not what we're expecting here on this site) but the defensive evaluation reads as uninformed:

The DL is better
The EDGE is the same
The LBs are far better
The CBs are probably better (depends on how good Tavon is when he returns to the lineup post-injury and depends on how much better you really think this unit can get - 2 all-pros, a good slot and 9 year starting outside CB)
The Ss are the same

not one unit has got worse than when the season ended

Generally agree with this. The offensive evaluation I think is perfectly fine.

On defense, I think its sort of "questionable" about whether we're better or not. I think the DLine is better, and the secondary likely remains about the same. We can go back and forth about what Tavon brings to the table, but the reality is that we don't know how healthy he will be, how effective he will be, or even what kind of playing time he will get. So I'm not really upgrading the secondary much, if at all, based on just his return. Could be significant, or it could be meaningless.

That leaves with me the linebacking core (inside and outside). Its just a giant question mark for me. Sure, we added two inside linebackers early in the draft, and hopefully, that makes us better. But I can't stand here and say Queen is an upgrade over Bynes or Onwuasor, when I haven't seen Queen play a single snap of Pro Football.

If I were taking an overall snap shot of the defense, I'd say its flat to a slight upgrade perhaps. While I think our Dline is better, I'm also hedging my expectations that guys like Campbell and Wolfe are really going to be difference makers. 5 years ago I would have agreed, but the drop off for aging veterans like this can be pretty steep sometimes, and its hard to know when it happens until it does.

For me, it comes down to one thing... health. The 2019 Ravens were about as healthy of an NFL team as you'll see in a season. When losing Tavon Young in the offseason is your biggest injury of the season, you had a great year from a health standpoint.

Injuries aren't predictable obviously, but some regression to the mean should be expected. Maybe last year was more of positive regression, after some of the disaster injury seasons we had a few years before that, but we can't expect this level of health every year. There's places on the team where we can afford injuries, and there's places where we can't. We can withstand an injury or two at RB and maybe like Corner. If Matt Judon tears an ACL, we're dead in the water from a pass rush standpoint. If Mark Andrews gets a significant injury, our entire passing game becomes one dimensional in my eyes.

If I were writing an article previewing the 2020 Ravens, health (though unpredictable) is likely to determine how good or average this team will be. That may be true of a lot of teams also, but I think its critical for this one.

 

[RavensMania]

Generally agree with this. The offensive evaluation I think is perfectly fine.

On defense, I think its sort of "questionable" about whether we're better or not. I think the DLine is better, and the secondary likely remains about the same. We can go back and forth about what Tavon brings to the table, but the reality is that we don't know how healthy he will be, how effective he will be, or even what kind of playing time he will get. So I'm not really upgrading the secondary much, if at all, based on just his return. Could be significant, or it could be meaningless.

That leaves with me the linebacking core (inside and outside). Its just a giant question mark for me. Sure, we added two inside linebackers early in the draft, and hopefully, that makes us better. But I can't stand here and say Queen is an upgrade over Bynes or Onwuasor, when I haven't seen Queen play a single snap of Pro Football.

If I were taking an overall snap shot of the defense, I'd say its flat to a slight upgrade perhaps. While I think our Dline is better, I'm also hedging my expectations that guys like Campbell and Wolfe are really going to be difference makers. 5 years ago I would have agreed, but the drop off for aging veterans like this can be pretty steep sometimes, and its hard to know when it happens until it does.

For me, it comes down to one thing... health. The 2019 Ravens were about as healthy of an NFL team as you'll see in a season. When losing Tavon Young in the offseason is your biggest injury of the season, you had a great year from a health standpoint.

Injuries aren't predictable obviously, but some regression to the mean should be expected. Maybe last year was more of positive regression, after some of the disaster injury seasons we had a few years before that, but we can't expect this level of health every year. There's places on the team where we can afford injuries, and there's places where we can't. We can withstand an injury or two at RB and maybe like Corner. If Matt Judon tears an ACL, we're dead in the water from a pass rush standpoint. If Mark Andrews gets a significant injury, our entire passing game becomes one dimensional in my eyes.

If I were writing an article previewing the 2020 Ravens, health (though unpredictable) is likely to determine how good or average this team will be. That may be true of a lot of teams also, but I think its critical for this one.

technically we lost Jefferson for most of the season as well, but that was an improvement. We also lost Elliott for the majority of the season also and add in Jimmy for half the season. Our defense was healthier than in past seasons, but nowhere near as healthy as the O.