i dunno - i was looking at it and was fairly certain the seahawks at least would strongly be in play for williams and the bengals probably too - but the chargers could also do with tackle help
and i was trying to use a slightly new trade chart model - you're right the value missing is still a 4th but in the 1st round every trade has inflation on it in some sense i guess was my justification - and its not like the trade offer was completely out of form - the saints gave up a 3 and a future 3 to go up to 19 in this scenario (and tbh they probably would have paid more IRL given that it was for a qb)
but yeah i guess my rationale was the browns had the ammo and i figured they wouldnt want to miss out on one of the top 2 tackles when they dont need to so i guess they'd be fairly desperate to draft in that spot - probably in the back of my mind was the fact that maybe the browns might consider the ravens also might take a tackle (even if it isnt mcglinchey)
I think trade value is inflated when early in the 1st and when QB is in play. This year, I think teams will actually have to take less value to move down because so many teams want to do it. The Ravens do. The Seahawks do. The Cowboys in this situation. I just don't see why, in this scenario, the Browns would be giving extra value to move up for a guy that in all honesty, probably isn't worth pick 16 anyways (but that's just my opinion). The way I look at it is to reverse the situation. If the Ravens wanted to move up 6 spots in the mid 1st, would you be okay with giving up a 2nd? I would be fuming, no matter how many picks we have.