The 1st half, The Refs and The Collapse

[Charm City]

At this rate I would be suprised if the team either doesn't select an ILB in the first two rounds or persue one in FA. Queen was having a solid season before last game but a every down ILB(Though hard to find) would do so much for this defense and those would require an early investment or us breaking the bank.

Early investment or not we need to prioritize ILBs who can actually cover and have experience lining up a defense at the college level.

 

[drjohnnyfever]

I mean... if you're literally making long term decisions based on a one game sample size of literally anything, then you deserve to be fired for incompetence.

Again, I didn't like the call, but I think its pretty telling that not a single fan I've seen has the balls or the confidence to stand up and say "yes, I think our defense was going to stop Buffalo from getting a FG or a TD on that last drive". Literally not heard a single person say that.

I think if anybody objectively "ranked" the likelihood of outcomes that occur after kicking a FG to take a 23-20 lead, I'd say they'd be ranked in this order:
a) we go to OT
b) we lose 27-23
c) we win in regulation

...well, I've been saying it. I realize I am but a naive fan, but the unit on the field that deserved a chance at closing it out was the DEF. And given that the success rate with goal to go is 48% with the OFF we had on Sunday, as coach, I would have been prudent rather than aggressive there. I give the DEF the way they were playing - which wasn't fabulous, a better than 48% chance of getting us at least to OT. You play for additional chances, at times. But they would have had the lead assuming Tucker didn't fail.

 

[Charm City]

I feel like 5th year option is not going to be picked up on him.

OTC has his 5th-year option at 11mil. Right now Queen isn't even worth 4 mil.

 

[rmcjacket23]

...well, I've been saying it. I realize I am but a naive fan, but the unit on the field that deserved a chance at closing it out was the DEF. And given that the success rate with goal to go is 48% with the OFF we had on Sunday, as coach, I would have been prudent rather than aggressive there. I give the DEF the way they were playing - which wasn't fabulous, a better than 48% chance of getting us at least to OT. You play for additional chances, at times. But they would have had the lead assuming Tucker didn't fail.

I don't think the defense had a better than 48% chance of winning the game. Getting to OT doesn't really interest me either. Like we can talk about the offenses success/failure on 4th and short, but I'd like to know what the defenses success/failure is in, say, the last 3-4 years, in closing out games with a defensive stop with the lead. I bet its not high, or maybe non-existent.

 

[Simba]

I feel like 5th year option is not going to be picked up on him.

I don't even think it's a debate unless he develops some consistency through the end of this year. You 100% decline it if you had to make a decision today, which challenges Queen to step up if he wants a contract.

 

[rossihunter2]

methinks that people are overreacting to the 2 or 3 plays they remember on sunday - queen dropping the pick, oweh not getting the 2nd or 3rd sack on allen...

 

[Simba]

methinks that people are overreacting to the 2 or 3 plays they remember on sunday - queen dropping the pick, oweh not getting the 2nd or 3rd sack on allen...

I don't think Queen is dreadful by any means... he's just so frustrating. So many plays that he could make that he just misses because of the mental. It's quite clear the physical is there but that's not going to matter if can't consistently take better angles and shoot the right gaps.

 

[rossihunter2]

I don't think Queen is dreadful by any means... he's just so frustrating. So many plays that he could make that he just misses because of the mental. It's quite clear the physical is there but that's not going to matter if can't consistently take better angles and shoot the right gaps.

if he caught the 2 picks that fell into his lap the last 2 weeks - no one would be complaining about him at all - in fact people would be hyped up

 

[Simba]

if he caught the 2 picks that fell into his lap the last 2 weeks - no one would be complaining about him at all - in fact people would be hyped up

Definitely been a solidish player this year and doesn’t deserve the amount of shit he gets, but also feel like hopes are waning of him becoming a true impact starter

 

[JoeyFlex5]

methinks that people are overreacting to the 2 or 3 plays they remember on sunday - queen dropping the pick, oweh not getting the 2nd or 3rd sack on allen...

The failed contains, missed tackles, and dropped picks 2 weeks straight to me are inexcusable.

Doesn’t mean they both didn’t otherwise play good games, but those plays are considered heavily and for good reason. Now yeah 90% seem to think they’re officially busts and that’s just ridiculous, but those plays can’t be minimized, they were bad.

 

[JAAM]

Just to make everyone upset again:

 

[drjohnnyfever]

I don't think the defense had a better than 48% chance of winning the game. Getting to OT doesn't really interest me either. Like we can talk about the offenses success/failure on 4th and short, but I'd like to know what the defenses success/failure is in, say, the last 3-4 years, in closing out games with a defensive stop with the lead. I bet its not high, or maybe non-existent.

Note that I am just "Devil's Advocating" here... The better of the two - admittedly bad units - on the field was the DEF. Not by much, but the OFF hadn't done anything in 2.5 quarters. An RB came up lame and the OFF was struggling. I just don't get the idea of taking a 50-50 in that moment when they have not looked good in that area this year. Just saying. Not expecting a response, just saying that if Harbs is going to go to the analytics card, it's not a strong card.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Note that I am just "Devil's Advocating" here... The better of the two - admittedly bad units - on the field was the DEF. Not by much, but the OFF hadn't done anything in 2.5 quarters. An RB came up lame and the OFF was struggling. I just don't get the idea of taking a 50-50 in that moment when they have not looked good in that area this year. Just saying. Not expecting a response, just saying that if Harbs is going to go to the analytics card, it's not a strong card.

Right, but the offense did get us down the field in a position for either a FG or a TD, so there's that.

Plus, if the offense hasn't done anything, why are we kicking a FG then? We all pretty much acknowledged that a best case scenario there is either a trip to OT (in which case now its pretty much entirely on the offense to win the game) or we lose by 4.

There's not a lot of good options overall here, but the faction of people who are in the "we should kick it" club, are basically putting all of their eggs in the defense basket. I'd say John's long term analytics approach is a better card than playing that card at this point in time.

 

[Deebo813]

if he caught the 2 picks that fell into his lap the last 2 weeks - no one would be complaining about him at all - in fact people would be hyped up

Id def be complaining about him lol.. gonna need 10 games straight of consistency for me to even think he an avg lb. When good players drop picks, thats totally fine… when an already bad player drops an int, its not a good look.

Devin white is super hyped up but i promise you he isnt that much better than queen lol. In fact, if he didnt have big vea, david and barret occupying everything, he likely be on par with queen. He is a better tackler but he also whiffs on a lot of them.

 

[RL52TheGreatest]

Right, but the offense did get us down the field in a position for either a FG or a TD, so there's that.

Plus, if the offense hasn't done anything, why are we kicking a FG then? We all pretty much acknowledged that a best case scenario there is either a trip to OT (in which case now its pretty much entirely on the offense to win the game) or we lose by 4.

There's not a lot of good options overall here, but the faction of people who are in the "we should kick it" club, are basically putting all of their eggs in the defense basket. I'd say John's long term analytics approach is a better card than playing that card at this point in time.

I don't think too many people would be complaining about the decision to go for it if the worst possible scenario didn't play out: turning the ball over in the endzone and giving the Bills possession with good field position. Lamar needed to put that in a spot where only Duvernay could possibly get it, or not, but he made a terrible throw.

 

[rmcjacket23]

I don't think too many people would be complaining about the decision to go for it if the worst possible scenario didn't play out: turning the ball over in the endzone and giving the Bills possession with good field position. Lamar needed to put that in a spot where only Duvernay could possibly get it, or not, but he made a terrible throw.

I don't think most people thought that far enough ahead. Most people are either "kick it" or "go for it", and really haven't considered many other view points on either side.

I'll admit my first reaction was to be pissed, because I thought we should have kicked. And if I were the HC, I'd today probably still have kicked. But the decision to go for it makes plenty of sense, both analytically and within the flow game and expectation of outcomes.

 

[drjohnnyfever]

I don't think most people thought that far enough ahead. Most people are either "kick it" or "go for it", and really haven't considered many other view points on either side.

I'll admit my first reaction was to be pissed, because I thought we should have kicked. And if I were the HC, I'd today probably still have kicked. But the decision to go for it makes plenty of sense, both analytically and within the flow game and expectation of outcomes.

...the thinking ahead was taking the points and going ahead, in a game based on points, to put it in the hands of the marginally better unit that day. I also think the challenge on ball placement taking a TO from us was a move that wound up hurting us. Also, if one of those scrambling plays by Allen had gone for a loss and the defender had wrapped him up, this discussion would be much different, because it could have gone to OT with a tie game. In that situation, the 3 points looms even larger. So there are people considering the actions after decisions the coaching makes.

Yet I agree that this is one of those "unwinnable" arguments, I disagree with some who are saying simply that by questioning taking points, etc. or why coaches do things that some don't understand "modern" football. That's ludicrous. And I hasten to say that football is still largely football. It's still a game based on points. Not how they are scored or prevented, but the fact that the points WERE scored or prevented.

 

[rmcjacket23]

...the thinking ahead was taking the points and going ahead, in a game based on points, to put it in the hands of the marginally better unit that day. I also think the challenge on ball placement taking a TO from us was a move that wound up hurting us. Also, if one of those scrambling plays by Allen had gone for a loss and the defender had wrapped him up, this discussion would be much different, because it could have gone to OT with a tie game. In that situation, the 3 points looms even larger. So there are people considering the actions after decisions the coaching makes.

Yet I agree that this is one of those "unwinnable" arguments, I disagree with some who are saying simply that by questioning taking points, etc. or why coaches do things that some don't understand "modern" football. That's ludicrous. And I hasten to say that football is still largely football. It's still a game based on points. Not how they are scored or prevented, but the fact that the points WERE scored or prevented.

1. Nobody is making decisions based off of "previous plays going differently". If we hadn't scored 6 points in 3 quarters, all of this discussion is moot. But we didn't, and so now it is relevant.
2. I think its debatable whether the defense was marginally better that day. Basically the same time the offense was struggling is the same time the defense was struggling, which is reflective of the fact that 4/5 previous drives were very long drives for points by Buffalo.

The majority of people who take the points want to do so because a) they want to be able to blame the defense for collapsing and losing 27-23, instead of blaming the offense for doing very little for 3 quarters and b) it's basically become racist or taboo to criticize Lamar for literally anything.

The outrage over going for it and failing is also supreme leverage for the "John sucks" crowd, despite the fact that if you ask them how they thought we were going to win that game, you usually get a lot of crickets.

We can talk about the failures of the offense in short-yardage, goal line situations, of which there are now many. But there are equally (if not more) failures on the defense in literally not closing games on end-of-game drives with the lead or in tied games. Going back a few years, that's been a MAJOR problem also.