At the beginning of the NFL season, before a single snap was played by any team, there were three games that I had picked out as must see TV. The first was the Pittsburgh Steelers game at Heinz Field on Sunday Night Football. This Sunday, in Baltimore, the Ravens will be taking on the New Orleans Saints in the second of such games.
This game, without a doubt, will be not only one of the top games of the week for the NFL, but possibly one of the most important games of the Ravens season. As the schedule stands now, there are few teams remaining on the schedule that present the same level of threat to the Ravens as the Saints. In many ways, this might be the benchmark game for the Ravens that shows they are contenders or shows that their weaknesses and points to holes that must be patched to close out the season for a post season run.
However, rather than simply talk about the impact of this game, let us take a look at the story lines that will dictate this game.
How Many Milestones Will Drew Brees Pass on Sunday?
You may have heard this before, but this Drew Brees guy is a pretty good quarterback, even if Saints fans will tell you he is heavily disrespected and heavily underrated (he is not). Brees is so good, in fact, that he is staring down the chance to break two milestones this Sunday, and two really big ones at that.
The first milestone Drew Brees can pass is that he can pass for 500 career passing touchdowns, only the fourth ever player to do so in a career. The Saints generously pulled Brees from the game in a blowout of the Washington Redskins, graciously allowing Saints fans only one excitement that day, Brees passing Peyton Manning on the all-time passing yards list. Instead of the NOLA signal caller setting the passing yards record for a career AND breaking 500 passing touchdowns for his career in the city that Brees brought so much hope to after Hurricane Katrina, he will have the chance to do it in Baltimore. Seems…. fitting? Maybe? Not really, but NFL teams work in mysterious ways, so I will only question the Saints decision to pull Brees one touchdown short of 500 in NOLA a lot. Adding to the confusion, the Ravens are the NFL’s stingiest defense and have the best passing defense in the NFL. The Ravens lead the NFL in passer rating allowed, plays of 40+ yards allowed, sacks, first downs by passing, first in completion percentage allowed, tied for first in passing yards allowed, and come in second in touchdowns allowed. So, again, tell me why the Saints did not just allow Brees to pass for his 500th passing touchdown in front of the home crowd in a game where it was nearly guaranteed?
The second milestone is that Drew Brees can become only the third ever quarterback (Brett Favre and Peyton Manning being the other two) in NFL history to beat all 32 teams. This is a rarity in the NFL because not only does a quarterback have to beat all other NFL teams, while only getting a shot to play some of those teams maybe three times in his career, but that quarterback has to also transfer to a new team. Fortunately for Brees, he had beaten the Saints as a member of the San Diego Chargers and beaten the Chargers as a member of the Saints. That leaves only one team on Brees’ list: the Baltimore Ravens. This, however, will not be an easy win for the Saints leader. Brees owns an all-time record of 0-4 against the Ravens and has struggled to the tune of 9 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. However, in the last two meetings between Brees and the Ravens, Brees has thrown six touchdowns to two interceptions, including a 420 yard, three touchdown, one interception (for a pick-six) performance against the Ravens in the NOLA. This game will not be an easy fought game as Brees looks for perhaps his last ever chance to beat the Ravens.
Can Joe Flacco Out-Duel Drew Brees?
Drew Brees currently sits at 11 touchdowns to zero interceptions with just over 1600 passing yards. If you were to look at the stats and compare to other quarterbacks, in total, those numbers would put Brees in the middle of the pack and easily outside the top 10. Except, those numbers come from just five games. Had Brees played in week six and had a normal week, he would easily be in the top 5 of all major passing categories, potentially even the top three.
Make no mistake, though. Drew Brees stats are not overly inflated due to an All-Pro cast of wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs. Brees does have Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, two absolute studs, but past those two, who else are the Saints putting out there that scares teams? Tre’Quan Smith? Former Raven Benjamin Watson? Please. Brees is an absolutely monstrous quarterback, despite his diminutive size, and cannot be taken lightly.
With all of that in mind, it probably sounds asinine to even suggest that Joe Flacco could come even remotely close to having a better game than Brees, but it is totally possible. Remember: the quarterbacks are never on the field at the same time until the end of the game when the teams shake hands. These two quarterbacks will instead be facing the opposing defense. Above, we talked about just how stout the Ravens defense is and the struggle that Brees will have to move the ball against the Ravens defense. On the flip side, the task should not be THAT tough for Flacco.
The Saints certainly have great young players in Marshon Lattimore and Marcus Williams, but the overall depth of the Saints secondary and the ability to generate pressure consistently has not fully been there. This has led to quarterbacks like Ryan Fitzmagic, er Fitzpatrick, and Matt Ryan having monstrous days against the Saints defense. With how Flacco has played this year when he is “on,” there is no reason to believe that Flacco cannot play up to the level of those two.
Sporting the thirtieth ranked pass defense, the highest first down percentage yielded to passing plays, and one of the worst passer ratings allowed in the NFL, this Saints defense will likely have a very long day against a Ravens team that finally has a bevy of weapons to attack the field with.
Can the Ravens Pass Rush Continue the Hunt?
The Ravens pass rush currently ranks first in the NFL with 26 sacks. Additionally, the Ravens are coming off an 11 sack performance against the Tennessee Titans. Yes, you read that right- 11 sacks. If that were all the Ravens had on the season, it would still rank ahead of seven other NFL teams.
On the flip side of the field, the Ravens face one of the hardest teams to actually sack. The Saints have allowed only eight sacks on the season. From left to right, the Saints feature an absolute fortress of an offensive line. However, it is also the ability of Brees to quickly work through his progressions and quickly get the ball out of his hands that helps to prevent sacks. When the line and Brees are working in tandem, Brees is nearly impossible to bring down.
This has the feeling of what happens when an immovable object meets an unstoppable force? Sunday just might give us the answer to the lifelong physics paradox.
Bonus Story Line to Watch: How Does Willie Snead IV Do Against His Former Team?
Willie Snead was one of Drew Brees’ most reliable targets in 2016, but due to a suspension and the rise of Michael Thomas, Snead was quickly cast off in 2017. Fast forward to 2018 and the Ravens are the winners of “one man’s trash.”
Snead has been a consistent force for the Ravens on third down, catching almost any pass thrown within his catch radius. With 30 catches for just over 300 yards and a touchdown, the Ravens are certainly feeling good about their investment, and might feel even better Sunday.
Since the injury to Patrick Robinson, the Saints defense has been noticeably worse against slot receivers. This might be the perfect revenge game for Snead, much like Steve Smith Sr’s revenge tour against the Panthers in 2014.
Final Score Prediction
This game will likely be one of the hardest games to actually predict this season. On paper, the Ravens feel like they have an advantage because the Ravens defense can match the Saints offense, but the Saints defense cannot match the Ravens offense. However, fresh off a bye week, the Saints may have worked out kinks or added new wrinkles. This game has all the makings of a fun game that is not for the faint of heart.
Final Score: New Orleans Saints: 27, Baltimore Ravens: 23
This game, without a doubt, will be not only one of the top games of the week for the NFL, but possibly one of the most important games of the Ravens season. As the schedule stands now, there are few teams remaining on the schedule that present the same level of threat to the Ravens as the Saints. In many ways, this might be the benchmark game for the Ravens that shows they are contenders or shows that their weaknesses and points to holes that must be patched to close out the season for a post season run.
However, rather than simply talk about the impact of this game, let us take a look at the story lines that will dictate this game.
How Many Milestones Will Drew Brees Pass on Sunday?
You may have heard this before, but this Drew Brees guy is a pretty good quarterback, even if Saints fans will tell you he is heavily disrespected and heavily underrated (he is not). Brees is so good, in fact, that he is staring down the chance to break two milestones this Sunday, and two really big ones at that.
The first milestone Drew Brees can pass is that he can pass for 500 career passing touchdowns, only the fourth ever player to do so in a career. The Saints generously pulled Brees from the game in a blowout of the Washington Redskins, graciously allowing Saints fans only one excitement that day, Brees passing Peyton Manning on the all-time passing yards list. Instead of the NOLA signal caller setting the passing yards record for a career AND breaking 500 passing touchdowns for his career in the city that Brees brought so much hope to after Hurricane Katrina, he will have the chance to do it in Baltimore. Seems…. fitting? Maybe? Not really, but NFL teams work in mysterious ways, so I will only question the Saints decision to pull Brees one touchdown short of 500 in NOLA a lot. Adding to the confusion, the Ravens are the NFL’s stingiest defense and have the best passing defense in the NFL. The Ravens lead the NFL in passer rating allowed, plays of 40+ yards allowed, sacks, first downs by passing, first in completion percentage allowed, tied for first in passing yards allowed, and come in second in touchdowns allowed. So, again, tell me why the Saints did not just allow Brees to pass for his 500th passing touchdown in front of the home crowd in a game where it was nearly guaranteed?
The second milestone is that Drew Brees can become only the third ever quarterback (Brett Favre and Peyton Manning being the other two) in NFL history to beat all 32 teams. This is a rarity in the NFL because not only does a quarterback have to beat all other NFL teams, while only getting a shot to play some of those teams maybe three times in his career, but that quarterback has to also transfer to a new team. Fortunately for Brees, he had beaten the Saints as a member of the San Diego Chargers and beaten the Chargers as a member of the Saints. That leaves only one team on Brees’ list: the Baltimore Ravens. This, however, will not be an easy win for the Saints leader. Brees owns an all-time record of 0-4 against the Ravens and has struggled to the tune of 9 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. However, in the last two meetings between Brees and the Ravens, Brees has thrown six touchdowns to two interceptions, including a 420 yard, three touchdown, one interception (for a pick-six) performance against the Ravens in the NOLA. This game will not be an easy fought game as Brees looks for perhaps his last ever chance to beat the Ravens.
Can Joe Flacco Out-Duel Drew Brees?
Drew Brees currently sits at 11 touchdowns to zero interceptions with just over 1600 passing yards. If you were to look at the stats and compare to other quarterbacks, in total, those numbers would put Brees in the middle of the pack and easily outside the top 10. Except, those numbers come from just five games. Had Brees played in week six and had a normal week, he would easily be in the top 5 of all major passing categories, potentially even the top three.
Make no mistake, though. Drew Brees stats are not overly inflated due to an All-Pro cast of wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs. Brees does have Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, two absolute studs, but past those two, who else are the Saints putting out there that scares teams? Tre’Quan Smith? Former Raven Benjamin Watson? Please. Brees is an absolutely monstrous quarterback, despite his diminutive size, and cannot be taken lightly.
With all of that in mind, it probably sounds asinine to even suggest that Joe Flacco could come even remotely close to having a better game than Brees, but it is totally possible. Remember: the quarterbacks are never on the field at the same time until the end of the game when the teams shake hands. These two quarterbacks will instead be facing the opposing defense. Above, we talked about just how stout the Ravens defense is and the struggle that Brees will have to move the ball against the Ravens defense. On the flip side, the task should not be THAT tough for Flacco.
The Saints certainly have great young players in Marshon Lattimore and Marcus Williams, but the overall depth of the Saints secondary and the ability to generate pressure consistently has not fully been there. This has led to quarterbacks like Ryan Fitzmagic, er Fitzpatrick, and Matt Ryan having monstrous days against the Saints defense. With how Flacco has played this year when he is “on,” there is no reason to believe that Flacco cannot play up to the level of those two.
Sporting the thirtieth ranked pass defense, the highest first down percentage yielded to passing plays, and one of the worst passer ratings allowed in the NFL, this Saints defense will likely have a very long day against a Ravens team that finally has a bevy of weapons to attack the field with.
Can the Ravens Pass Rush Continue the Hunt?
The Ravens pass rush currently ranks first in the NFL with 26 sacks. Additionally, the Ravens are coming off an 11 sack performance against the Tennessee Titans. Yes, you read that right- 11 sacks. If that were all the Ravens had on the season, it would still rank ahead of seven other NFL teams.
On the flip side of the field, the Ravens face one of the hardest teams to actually sack. The Saints have allowed only eight sacks on the season. From left to right, the Saints feature an absolute fortress of an offensive line. However, it is also the ability of Brees to quickly work through his progressions and quickly get the ball out of his hands that helps to prevent sacks. When the line and Brees are working in tandem, Brees is nearly impossible to bring down.
This has the feeling of what happens when an immovable object meets an unstoppable force? Sunday just might give us the answer to the lifelong physics paradox.
Bonus Story Line to Watch: How Does Willie Snead IV Do Against His Former Team?
Willie Snead was one of Drew Brees’ most reliable targets in 2016, but due to a suspension and the rise of Michael Thomas, Snead was quickly cast off in 2017. Fast forward to 2018 and the Ravens are the winners of “one man’s trash.”
Snead has been a consistent force for the Ravens on third down, catching almost any pass thrown within his catch radius. With 30 catches for just over 300 yards and a touchdown, the Ravens are certainly feeling good about their investment, and might feel even better Sunday.
Since the injury to Patrick Robinson, the Saints defense has been noticeably worse against slot receivers. This might be the perfect revenge game for Snead, much like Steve Smith Sr’s revenge tour against the Panthers in 2014.
Final Score Prediction
This game will likely be one of the hardest games to actually predict this season. On paper, the Ravens feel like they have an advantage because the Ravens defense can match the Saints offense, but the Saints defense cannot match the Ravens offense. However, fresh off a bye week, the Saints may have worked out kinks or added new wrinkles. This game has all the makings of a fun game that is not for the faint of heart.
Final Score: New Orleans Saints: 27, Baltimore Ravens: 23