Ludy51
Hall of Famer
4th and 9, 4th and 12, 3rd and 18.
Time and time again it seems that the Ravens defense just can’t get a stop where it counts. No matter the down or distance when the game’s on the line you can count on this unit to crumble. This has been the narrative for several years now, whether under Dean Pees or Don Martindale the same mistakes seem to happen repeatedly. “Why is the Ravens defense so unclutch?” many fans have been asking themselves. However, in my discussions with other fans I noticed something interesting. Every single person I talked to thought that their team’s defense was the biggest chokers come clutch time. So it prompted me to look a little deeper. How does the ravens 3rd and 4th down defense stack up to a defense like, say, the Bears? And what I found was extremely interesting.
(Source for stats: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/chi/2018_opp_splits.htm#all_down_distance_splits
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/rav/2018_opp_splits.htm)
Let’s take a look first at 3rd and short situations, commonly seen as 1-4 yards away.
Ravens
35 Attempts, 1.83 Average Yards to Gain, 3.31 Average Yards Gained
Bears
52 Attempts, 1.69 Average Yards to Gain, 3.27 Average Yards Gained
So what does this mean? Well The Bears have forced more 3rd and shorts than the Ravens where the needed yardage is less and they allow basically the same amount of yards. The rules make it hard to stop any Offense with this down and distance so this isn’t really all that meaningful.
But what happens when we move the sticks back a bit? Who does better when the distance is 4-6 yards?
Ravens
46 Attempts, 5.04 Average Yards To Gain, 2.50 Average Yards Gained
Bears
44 Attempts, 5.00 Average Yards To Gain, 7.48 Average Yards Gained
Now this is a bit more interesting. Almost the same attempts, for the same distance and a MASSIVE gainage difference. Basically 5 yards, and this is where defenses have a much better chance of making a stop. Let’s see it broken down by a Pass/Run ratio.
Ravens
Rushing: 4 Attempts, 3 Yards, 0.8 Y/A, 0 First Downs
Passing: 21/35, 112 Yards, 3.2 Y/A, 15 First Downs
Bears
Rushing: 2 Attempts, 3 Yards, 1.5 Y/A, 0 First Downs
Passing: 25/42, 326 Yards, 7.8 Y/A, 18 First Downs
So we now know that it’s passing, not running that converts in these situations on both D’s. But the Bears have almost triple the amount of allowed yardage on only 7 more pass attempts! Not a great sign for the Bears but an interesting point for the Ravens 3rd and Medium defense.
Now we get to the big one. 3rd and 7-9 is the Ravens supposed “Choke Zone” But do the numbers match up with perception? Let’s see.
Ravens
39 Attempts, 7.87 Average Yards To Gain, 5.92 Average Yards Gained
Bears
36 Attempts, 8.08 Average Yards To Gain, 1.83 Average Yards Gained
Wow. Before we touch that 1.83 number for the Bears, let’s see how the results look on average for the Ravens
16 Conversions allowed, 39 attempted
100/39=2.56
2.56X16=40.96%
So the Ravens allow a 3rd and 7-9 conversion 41% of the time, that’s tied with Dallas for 26th in the league. Their overall 3rd down %? 34.5%. So if you’re looking to convert a 3rd down you’d best look to get in that range, because it’s by far their lowest.
Let’s check that same rate for the Bears.
8 Conversions Allowed, 36 attempted
100/36=2.78%
2.78X8=22.24%
Much stronger for the Bears
But taking a step back, how in the world are the Bears allowing only 1.83 yards on 3rd and 7-9!?!? That’s a crazy number. The closest I could find after was the Bills and they still allowed 2.81 on those plays!
But anyway, back to the point of the article. Now we move to the crazy distance 3rd and 10+.
Ravens
59 Attempts, 12.69 (nice) Average Yards To Gain, 4.58 Average Yards Gained
Bears
49 Attempts, 14.08 Average Yards To Gain, 5.29 Average Yards Gained
So the Ravens force more 3rd and 10+’s and allow fewer yards when they come up. But what’s the conversion rate?
11 conversions allowed 59 attempted
100/59=1.69%
1.69X11=18.59%
That’s more like it. Ande the Bears?
10 Conversions Allowed, 49 Attempted
100/49=2.04%
2.04X10=20.4%
A bit worse, but still within expected ranges.
But enough about 3rd down, the true measure of a defense is how they stand when possession of the football is on the line. 4th down and 1-4, the ultimate Man Vs Man challenge. WHat are the numbers?
Ravens
11 Attempts, 1.45 Average Yards To Gain, 4.82 Average Yards Gained
Bears
12 attempts, 1.33 Average Yards To Gain, 5.50 Average Yards Gained
Yikes. Well apparently the answer is... Not well. Similar attempts, similar yards and both aren’t making many stops.
But again, those short yardage situations aren’t exactly favorable to the defense. How about we look at a fairer scenario. 4th and 4-6.
Ravens
2 Attempts, 5.50 Average Yards To Gain, 0 Average Yards Gained
Bears
3 Attempts, 5.00 Average Yards To Gain, -1.00 Average Yards Gained
That’s more like it! Defenses standing tall when asked. Neither Defense allowing positive yards on average when given a better chance. Funnily enough, the Bears have actually allowed a first down on a 4th and 6. It was a 9 yard completion by the Lions. But the sample size is so small the averages get screwed up because of a 12 yard sack against the Rams.
But here’s the real issue for the team in question. 4th and 7-9. This is what has killed the Ravens year-in and year-out. How do the numbers look this year?
Ravens
4 Attempts, 8.00 Average Yards To Gain, 14 Average Yards gained
Abysmal. The only word to describe those numbers. Just terrible. And the split isn’t any better
Rushing: 1 Attempt, 0 Yards
Passing: 2/3, 56 Yards, 28 Y/A, 2 First Downs
So even without the Mahomes to Hill pass from last week they still allowed a conversion on the other pass on 4th-and-7-9 this season! Ugh, and the Bears?
Bears
2 Attempts, 8.00 Average Yards To Gain, 3.50 Average Yards Gained
That’s what it SHOULD look like. And the Bears have allowed a conversion on a pass this year, the fake punt by the Rams, But that has the excuse of surprise at the very least.
But what about the extreme distances? 4th and 10+ should never be converted against any defense. How has it looked this year?
Ravens
1 Attempt, 10 Average Yards To Gain, 0 Average Yards Gained
Bears
5 Attempts, 12.80 Average Yards To Gain, 3.20 Average Yards Gained
I was more surprised to learn that the Bears had forced FIVE 4th and 10 attempts this year, and have actually allowed one to convert! But otherwise it’s exactly what you’d expect.
So what does this show? Well it seems like on key 3rd and 4th downs neither team is any more clutch or indeed un-clutch than the other. Outside of a handful of plays on both sides it seems all of the fans were correct. Every team is full of chokers! Also the Ravens and Bears are both really good defenses.
TL;DR: Ravens don’t choke any more or less than other teams in the league, outside of extreme “Game on the line” scenarios.
Time and time again it seems that the Ravens defense just can’t get a stop where it counts. No matter the down or distance when the game’s on the line you can count on this unit to crumble. This has been the narrative for several years now, whether under Dean Pees or Don Martindale the same mistakes seem to happen repeatedly. “Why is the Ravens defense so unclutch?” many fans have been asking themselves. However, in my discussions with other fans I noticed something interesting. Every single person I talked to thought that their team’s defense was the biggest chokers come clutch time. So it prompted me to look a little deeper. How does the ravens 3rd and 4th down defense stack up to a defense like, say, the Bears? And what I found was extremely interesting.
(Source for stats: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/chi/2018_opp_splits.htm#all_down_distance_splits
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/rav/2018_opp_splits.htm)
Let’s take a look first at 3rd and short situations, commonly seen as 1-4 yards away.
Ravens
35 Attempts, 1.83 Average Yards to Gain, 3.31 Average Yards Gained
Bears
52 Attempts, 1.69 Average Yards to Gain, 3.27 Average Yards Gained
So what does this mean? Well The Bears have forced more 3rd and shorts than the Ravens where the needed yardage is less and they allow basically the same amount of yards. The rules make it hard to stop any Offense with this down and distance so this isn’t really all that meaningful.
But what happens when we move the sticks back a bit? Who does better when the distance is 4-6 yards?
Ravens
46 Attempts, 5.04 Average Yards To Gain, 2.50 Average Yards Gained
Bears
44 Attempts, 5.00 Average Yards To Gain, 7.48 Average Yards Gained
Now this is a bit more interesting. Almost the same attempts, for the same distance and a MASSIVE gainage difference. Basically 5 yards, and this is where defenses have a much better chance of making a stop. Let’s see it broken down by a Pass/Run ratio.
Ravens
Rushing: 4 Attempts, 3 Yards, 0.8 Y/A, 0 First Downs
Passing: 21/35, 112 Yards, 3.2 Y/A, 15 First Downs
Bears
Rushing: 2 Attempts, 3 Yards, 1.5 Y/A, 0 First Downs
Passing: 25/42, 326 Yards, 7.8 Y/A, 18 First Downs
So we now know that it’s passing, not running that converts in these situations on both D’s. But the Bears have almost triple the amount of allowed yardage on only 7 more pass attempts! Not a great sign for the Bears but an interesting point for the Ravens 3rd and Medium defense.
Now we get to the big one. 3rd and 7-9 is the Ravens supposed “Choke Zone” But do the numbers match up with perception? Let’s see.
Ravens
39 Attempts, 7.87 Average Yards To Gain, 5.92 Average Yards Gained
Bears
36 Attempts, 8.08 Average Yards To Gain, 1.83 Average Yards Gained
Wow. Before we touch that 1.83 number for the Bears, let’s see how the results look on average for the Ravens
16 Conversions allowed, 39 attempted
100/39=2.56
2.56X16=40.96%
So the Ravens allow a 3rd and 7-9 conversion 41% of the time, that’s tied with Dallas for 26th in the league. Their overall 3rd down %? 34.5%. So if you’re looking to convert a 3rd down you’d best look to get in that range, because it’s by far their lowest.
Let’s check that same rate for the Bears.
8 Conversions Allowed, 36 attempted
100/36=2.78%
2.78X8=22.24%
Much stronger for the Bears
But taking a step back, how in the world are the Bears allowing only 1.83 yards on 3rd and 7-9!?!? That’s a crazy number. The closest I could find after was the Bills and they still allowed 2.81 on those plays!
But anyway, back to the point of the article. Now we move to the crazy distance 3rd and 10+.
Ravens
59 Attempts, 12.69 (nice) Average Yards To Gain, 4.58 Average Yards Gained
Bears
49 Attempts, 14.08 Average Yards To Gain, 5.29 Average Yards Gained
So the Ravens force more 3rd and 10+’s and allow fewer yards when they come up. But what’s the conversion rate?
11 conversions allowed 59 attempted
100/59=1.69%
1.69X11=18.59%
That’s more like it. Ande the Bears?
10 Conversions Allowed, 49 Attempted
100/49=2.04%
2.04X10=20.4%
A bit worse, but still within expected ranges.
But enough about 3rd down, the true measure of a defense is how they stand when possession of the football is on the line. 4th down and 1-4, the ultimate Man Vs Man challenge. WHat are the numbers?
Ravens
11 Attempts, 1.45 Average Yards To Gain, 4.82 Average Yards Gained
Bears
12 attempts, 1.33 Average Yards To Gain, 5.50 Average Yards Gained
Yikes. Well apparently the answer is... Not well. Similar attempts, similar yards and both aren’t making many stops.
But again, those short yardage situations aren’t exactly favorable to the defense. How about we look at a fairer scenario. 4th and 4-6.
Ravens
2 Attempts, 5.50 Average Yards To Gain, 0 Average Yards Gained
Bears
3 Attempts, 5.00 Average Yards To Gain, -1.00 Average Yards Gained
That’s more like it! Defenses standing tall when asked. Neither Defense allowing positive yards on average when given a better chance. Funnily enough, the Bears have actually allowed a first down on a 4th and 6. It was a 9 yard completion by the Lions. But the sample size is so small the averages get screwed up because of a 12 yard sack against the Rams.
But here’s the real issue for the team in question. 4th and 7-9. This is what has killed the Ravens year-in and year-out. How do the numbers look this year?
Ravens
4 Attempts, 8.00 Average Yards To Gain, 14 Average Yards gained
Abysmal. The only word to describe those numbers. Just terrible. And the split isn’t any better
Rushing: 1 Attempt, 0 Yards
Passing: 2/3, 56 Yards, 28 Y/A, 2 First Downs
So even without the Mahomes to Hill pass from last week they still allowed a conversion on the other pass on 4th-and-7-9 this season! Ugh, and the Bears?
Bears
2 Attempts, 8.00 Average Yards To Gain, 3.50 Average Yards Gained
That’s what it SHOULD look like. And the Bears have allowed a conversion on a pass this year, the fake punt by the Rams, But that has the excuse of surprise at the very least.
But what about the extreme distances? 4th and 10+ should never be converted against any defense. How has it looked this year?
Ravens
1 Attempt, 10 Average Yards To Gain, 0 Average Yards Gained
Bears
5 Attempts, 12.80 Average Yards To Gain, 3.20 Average Yards Gained
I was more surprised to learn that the Bears had forced FIVE 4th and 10 attempts this year, and have actually allowed one to convert! But otherwise it’s exactly what you’d expect.
So what does this show? Well it seems like on key 3rd and 4th downs neither team is any more clutch or indeed un-clutch than the other. Outside of a handful of plays on both sides it seems all of the fans were correct. Every team is full of chokers! Also the Ravens and Bears are both really good defenses.
TL;DR: Ravens don’t choke any more or less than other teams in the league, outside of extreme “Game on the line” scenarios.
