A New NFL Trend by the Baltimore Ravens ?

[GG.exe]

Wave of the future. Teams are aligning their super bowl windows around rookie quarterback contracts.....

Adam Schefter ✔ @AdamSchefter

There are six starting QBs in 2018 Playoffs who are 25 or younger: Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, Mitchell Trubisky, Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. That’s the most QBs 25 or younger in a single postseason in NFL history, per @EliasSports.

Cousins getting $30m, Case Keenum, even backups like Mike Glennon. Derek Carr prohibiting the Raiders from re-signing Mack. Etc. There are many examples of NFL clubs forced into shelling out big money for average QBs and suffering on the defensive side of the roster.

As long as they're handing it out, then a QB should put his hand out. But I think that well could be drying up in the near future. All those QBs will be pushed out to the XFL, AAFL, FFL, as more and more teams go the rookie QB way.....and....there'll be some kind of new QB salary scale imo to combat the rising prohibitive costs of QBs especially.

Not sure if the Seahawks started that economic trend, they could've. But the methodology of a top D + run game + capable game-managing QB as a formula to win the Lombardi has been around for as long as the Super Bowl has been around.

Someone like Aaron Rodgers is one of the biggest me-first players in the league. He needs a whole OL upgrade, and some key defensive players, but good luck getting him to renegotiate. Carr already showed he doesn't care either not helping to get Mack re-signed.

Every end of season now, I see tweets and discussions where teams are up against the cap due to prohibitive QB cost, and having to finagle cap space, make players renegotiate contracts, otherwise be forced to let go their better players --- on defense!

I reckon there could be a renaissance in salary pay scales. Tho the cap keeps rising, teams are struggling to field good teams with non-rookie QBs, and the standard of NFL games will suffer, which isn't good for the NFL product either.

They've tipped the scale so far that teams figured out they could get away with shit QB's and build up their defenses with the extra money. I guess it's the natural reaction to making the game so easy for the offense. Waiting for the truly innovative coach and player that turns a RB that throws the ball 10+ times a game as the main player of the offense??

That team already exists.....Baltimore Ravens and Lamar Jackson.

What the Ravens are doing is also bringing back old formations and ideas. Double Wing, Wishbone type stuff. Where there's a lot of motions and pulls, misdirection, as well as zero splits in the OL (no 1 yard gap between the OL) because from the back-end, the D's perspective, it's next to impossible to see who has the ball and what is really happening.

You can pull up some Double Wing youtube videos and see how it works.

If we win the Super Bowl this season, I can see it as a watershed moment yet again, where what's old is new again. Teams looking at loading up the RB depth chart, have about 4 or 5 guys there on the cheap who can tap in and tap out as they tire, also with different running styles (power backs and scat backs), as well as potentially have like a four or five deep QB depth chart, cheap but skilled ball-runners, rotate them in and out as well. Invest top money into the defensive side of the roster, and utilize the old three yards and a cloud of dust approach to winning.

 

[DeVito52]

Alright you can wake up from your dream now lol

 

[DeVito52]

But for real, unless we go on an insane run and win 3 super bowls in a row, the league isn’t going to conform to our style of play.

Even if they did, Lamar Jackson type players don’t grow on trees.

I see where you’re going with the whole “save money by playing with a rookie contract QB” but I can hit you back with “just draft well”... That’s how the Seahawks were dominant for a

We aren’t playing great because we have a rookie QB. We are still paying for a QB. We are playing great because our defense is loaded with playmakers on rookie contracts. As long as you draft well, you don’t need to worry about not paying a QB.

 

[GG.exe]

Our defense is strong because we're able to afford them, not let them go, too. If you keep hacking away at your defensive roster so you can afford that $25m a year QB, which are rare to come by, then your D will suffer. Seems easier to invest on multiple defensive players and get by on offense with some creativity. The prevailing thought has been to find that great QB and pair him with a great HC for 10+ years, build around them, adding pieces here and there, letting them go when they get too cost prohibitive, as long as you keep that $25m QB. But that Belichick-Brady dynamic is rare also in terms of how Bill is also the GM in a club with a very simplistic old-style front office....only the owner and the HC/GM who answers to him. Most clubs these days have ten million moving parts in the front office, people doing all different things and answerable to different people, it creates a lot of dysfunction and power struggles. There arent going to be tons of Belichick's around. So a HC+QB duo isn't going to happen a lot.

Again, seems like the old more simpler styles of things could be back in vogue. Simpler front offices....simpler defensive schemes utilizing your players strengths and not complicating things that makes it hard for the younger players to just get out there and do their thing....simpler play calls away from the old WCO terminologies, etc etc.

Our D has a lot of talent on it, but we blitz a damn lot and disguise it well with that "Double A" approach, where everyone loads the box, shows blitz, and good luck figuring out who is coming and who is dropping back. There are DCs out there who over-complicate things and they don't get the most out of their players. We're fortunate that we have very smart coaches and front office people.

 

[Jacquouille]

If we win the SB in the next five years I highly doubt the NFL will talk more about the defense than Lamar Jackson. It would take a 2015 Broncos' case for that to happen.

 

[GG.exe]

There are 32 starting QBs at any time. Only about 12 of them can be considered having a passing grade. So there are about 20 QBs who are average to below-average. That’s a brutal curve. That reality or grading scale of QBs is wildly disproportionate, especially when they are all getting financially rewarded for failure. There is no merit to this system. You just need to be better than the bottom half and you are set for life. If teams keep setting up bad quarterbacks and justifying it only because “there’s not much else out there” then they are just setting themselves up for failure, their own lost jobs. Something has to give one way or the other. I'm guessing it'll be a renaissance of offensive thinking in lieu of further dwindling QB college stocks and rising prohibitive costs of even average QBs.

MLB is figuring it out with starting pitchers, realizing they're overpaying for guys who go 5 innings. They're paying relievers instead and a lot cheaper.

 

[GG.exe]

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/...backs-salary-cap-kirk-cousins-patrick-mahomes

Rising league revenues have pushed the salary cap from $123 million in 2013 to $177 million this season, giving teams more freedom. “There’s just a lot more flexibility,” Chiefs general manager Brett Veach told me. This era of salary growth came after changes to the value of rookie contracts. In 2010, no. 1 overall draft pick Sam Bradford received about $50 million guaranteed. A year later, after the new collective bargaining agreement, no. 1 pick Cam Newton signed for $22 million guaranteed. These changes have created unprecedented bargains. Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes II, this season’s presumptive MVP, is earning $3.7 million this year, making him the 400th-highest-paid player in the league. He gets about $800,000 less than Falcons backup Matt Schaub and is under contract until 2021.

A consequence of these salary fluctuations is that NFL teams dump all but the top veterans once their rookie contracts are up. (This has had the added effect of lowering the average age of NFL players.) Just as there are more bargains to be found in the draft, there is also more money to spend, and a salary floor that requires teams to spend it. A lot of this money has gone to quarterbacks, and not always to good ones, which has created a disjointed, stunningly bad market for the position. Washington star cornerback Josh Norman told me this year that quarterback pay should be capped because not enough money goes to defensive players. (The real answer is for owners to pay every NFL player more money, but that’s a different issue.)

It’s easier than ever to play the position in the NFL, and innovative offenses are getting better at maximizing the value of young quarterbacks. Teams like the Rams, Bears, and Chiefs are in enviable situations with young quarterbacks who are under contract for multiple years. Making the wrong decision about paying a quarterback can have disastrous consequences. “Teams act out of fear with quarterbacks,” Zack Moore, a salary cap expert and author of Caponomics: Building Super Bowl Champions, told me. “Once you decide a guy can’t win a Super Bowl, you should figure out how to get off that path with him. You cannot pay a middling starter like an elite guy.”

 

[Adreme]

When you draft a 1st round QB the success rate is still about 50-50. Now the root of the problem is the rookie wage scale for QBs is disproportionate to the veteran QB in such a massive way that it causes problems.

However if you just go with a new rookie every 4 years attempting to trade said rookie for picks, your team is going to be screwed 50% of the time when you pick wrong for years.

 

[Willbacker]

The problem with all this talk and saying we can now "afford" this defense is the fact that we're still paying a QB top money. Even the Seahawks who we're comparing this too are now paying their QB. Sure you can try just getting by with a QB that's on a rookie contract but then if you dump a franchize QB its no sure thing you can duplicate the successes even with a high paid D. First of all defenses can figger out new offenses (remember the 1st wave of rpo QBs). It was a one year success. Defenses will adjust to Jackson and Jackson is gonna have to adjust as is our gamecalling. Right now we just riding a high tide that is working. Besides that there are players on D that are getting QB contracts now ie Kalil Mack.

Personally @DeVito52 hit it squarely on the head.

 

[cdp]

Wave of the future. Teams are aligning their super bowl windows around rookie quarterback contracts.....



Cousins getting $30m, Case Keenum, even backups like Mike Glennon. Derek Carr prohibiting the Raiders from re-signing Mack. Etc. There are many examples of NFL clubs forced into shelling out big money for average QBs and suffering on the defensive side of the roster.

......

Interesting thoughts. 1st: Davis is just a bad businessman, the city and the coliseum are sueing Davis because he still hasn't paid back old debt. Now he's forced to leaveoakland and the coliseum early so he doesn't have to pay the whole amount and they wouldn't have been able to move to Vegas without any external financial help.
I went through some end of regular season pressers and many Gm's and HC's mentioned they want to run the ball more. For example the Lions GM said this explcitly, even though Stafford is one of the best passers in the league. The analytics have shown that passing is far more effective than running. But controlling the clock is also important as long as you have and control the ball your opponent can't score. I agree some QB's are overpaid, but this happens with every other position too, however most teams seem to forget if your qb hasn't been able to lead your team to the playoffs during his rookie contract, it's more likely than not he won't able to do so later.

 

[RavensMania]

Alright you can wake up from your dream now lol

Yeah exactly. With the new CBA coming 2021 and new television rights, the salary cap with go up tremendously.
Hell, the union is trying to get rid of the rookie salary cap, thus having a Sam Bradford 50m contract as a rookie effect.

 

[redrum52]

I said this a while back. Teams might start saying fuck paying a qb unless they're very special and just start cycling guys when the contract expires. Focus on building the team and say a guy does become available, you pay plug and play. But even if you do that, you still have a team that can support his play... Unless they're Kirk bum ass Cousins.

 

[Tank]

Yeah, no this ain’t happening. Teams are having to sign average guys to huge, short term contracts because they haven’t drafted one worth keeping. The formula will always be find THE guy, give him tools to work with, suck it up and pay him when the time comes. The key is being able to continually draft good, young players to balance things. The Ravens have been able to do well at this with defensive players. Offense? Hit or miss, and down right sucky with WRs.

Of course there will always be a short term outlier but platooning young QBs every 3 or 4 years will hardly become a trend. And it’s never changed, you still have to be able to run the ball at least adequately in order to be successful to and through the tournament. No offense is sustainable long term without some sort of balance.

 

[JO_75]

Wave of the future. Teams are aligning their super bowl windows around rookie quarterback contracts.....

Not sure if the Seahawks started that economic trend, they could've. But the methodology of a top D + run game + capable game-managing QB as a formula to win the Lombardi has been around for as long as the Super Bowl has been around.

Someone like Aaron Rodgers is one of the biggest me-first players in the league. He needs a whole OL upgrade, and some key defensive players, but good luck getting him to renegotiate. Carr already showed he doesn't care either not helping to get Mack re-signed.

Every end of season now, I see tweets and discussions where teams are up against the cap due to prohibitive QB cost, and having to finagle cap space, make players renegotiate contracts, otherwise be forced to let go their better players --- on defense!

Yeah Seattle started it, as they scouted well enough to find gems that were on rookie contracts who turned into star players like Richard Sherman was a 4th round pick. Wilson was a third round pick, and they took advantage of those guys being on rookie contracts and we saw what happened when they tried to pay everyone. It bit them and essentially they are back to what worked for them before, fielding talented players on rookie contracts to help them compete now before they get paid. Teams realized what they did and essentially this is why you see the Rams loading up to win now before paying Goff, the Bears went out and got Mack before they have to pay Trubisky, etc.

Yeah exactly. With the new CBA coming 2021 and new television rights, the salary cap with go up tremendously.
Hell, the union is trying to get rid of the rookie salary cap, thus having a Sam Bradford 50m contract as a rookie effect.

Demaurice Smith is still leading the NFLPA right? Yeah no chance the players get anything back with him running it still, the NFLPA got run over by the Owners in the last CBA because of him. No way the owners would go for the rookie scale being gone with the positives of a QB on a rookie contract. Sure the owners may budge and increase the cost of the contracts to pay rookies better but we won't ever see a $50M rookie contract. If anything, the NFLPA should fight to get the rookie contracts expanded into the second round or the first half of the second round.

I do see the NFL trying to do something that would help with the enormous cap issue that plagues them with the big QB contracts. Maybe something like guaranteed money with a lower cap hit for the first three years(think Kirk Cousins contract) or something like that to please the NFLPA.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

It will be a decade plus before a QB comes out that can allow a nfl team to do what we’re doing.

Kyler Murray if we was 6’2” and up would be that guy, but he may be legitimately too small.

It’s the driver of this offense and that kind of player is just rare.

 

[redrum52]

Yeah, no this ain’t happening. Teams are having to sign average guys to huge, short term contracts because they haven’t drafted one worth keeping. The formula will always be find THE guy, give him tools to work with, suck it up and pay him when the time comes. The key is being able to continually draft good, young players to balance things. The Ravens have been able to do well at this with defensive players. Offense? Hit or miss, and down right sucky with WRs.

Of course there will always be a short term outlier but platooning young QBs every 3 or 4 years will hardly become a trend. And it’s never changed, you still have to be able to run the ball at least adequately in order to be successful to and through the tournament. No offense is sustainable long term without some sort of balance.

With the CBA structure and not being forced to pay qbs, there's no reason to say it can't happen. Things will change and teams will get tired of overpaying mediocre to bad qbs for the sake of continuity. Recently, just look at teams Brock, Tannehill and Bortles. Teams aren't going to keep doing this. I could see teams taking the approach of taking multiple qbs to develop one in the scheme while the other plays. Thing their FO is a joke, but not paying Kirk was one of the brightest things the Skins did. They did get lucky in the situation to be able to trade from a guy, but there will almost always be a FA stopgap.

I'm not going to reread thru this cause I'll be honest. I'm a little hungover, but I hope you get my drift. TLR there's no reason to pay qbs who are below average to average just for "stability." If you have a structured team, roll the dice in FA or thru the draft.

 

[RavensMania]

Yeah Seattle started it, as they scouted well enough to find gems that were on rookie contracts who turned into star players like Richard Sherman was a 4th round pick. Wilson was a third round pick, and they took advantage of those guys being on rookie contracts and we saw what happened when they tried to pay everyone. It bit them and essentially they are back to what worked for them before, fielding talented players on rookie contracts to help them compete now before they get paid. Teams realized what they did and essentially this is why you see the Rams loading up to win now before paying Goff, the Bears went out and got Mack before they have to pay Trubisky, etc.



Demaurice Smith is still leading the NFLPA right? Yeah no chance the players get anything back with him running it still, the NFLPA got run over by the Owners in the last CBA because of him. No way the owners would go for the rookie scale being gone with the positives of a QB on a rookie contract. Sure the owners may budge and increase the cost of the contracts to pay rookies better but we won't ever see a $50M rookie contract. If anything, the NFLPA should fight to get the rookie contracts expanded into the second round or the first half of the second round.

I do see the NFL trying to do something that would help with the enormous cap issue that plagues them with the big QB contracts. Maybe something like guaranteed money with a lower cap hit for the first three years(think Kirk Cousins contract) or something like that to please the NFLPA.

I didn’t say they would be able to remove the rookie cap. I also agree that more guaranteed money in contracts with a lower cap hit may help the cause. Will be interesting to see in a couple yrs.

 

[Tank]

With the CBA structure and not being forced to pay qbs, there's no reason to say it can't happen. Things will change and teams will get tired of overpaying mediocre to bad qbs for the sake of continuity. Recently, just look at teams Brock, Tannehill and Bortles. Teams aren't going to keep doing this. I could see teams taking the approach of taking multiple qbs to develop one in the scheme while the other plays. Thing their FO is a joke, but not paying Kirk was one of the brightest things the Skins did. They did get lucky in the situation to be able to trade from a guy, but there will almost always be a FA stopgap.

I'm not going to reread thru this cause I'll be honest. I'm a little hungover, but I hope you get my drift. TLR there's no reason to pay qbs who are below average to average just for "stability." If you have a structured team, roll the dice in FA or thru the draft.

Lol......Pedialyte and pasta are your friends.

Kinda sorta, but the idea is to draft the right player who can be your guy, not Bortles.

 

[rossihunter2]

There are 32 starting QBs at any time. Only about 12 of them can be considered having a passing grade. So there are about 20 QBs who are average to below-average. That’s a brutal curve. That reality or grading scale of QBs is wildly disproportionate, especially when they are all getting financially rewarded for failure. There is no merit to this system. You just need to be better than the bottom half and you are set for life. If teams keep setting up bad quarterbacks and justifying it only because “there’s not much else out there” then they are just setting themselves up for failure, their own lost jobs. Something has to give one way or the other. I'm guessing it'll be a renaissance of offensive thinking in lieu of further dwindling QB college stocks and rising prohibitive costs of even average QBs.

MLB is figuring it out with starting pitchers, realizing they're overpaying for guys who go 5 innings. They're paying relievers instead and a lot cheaper.

I disagree with that sentiment entirely
The level of qb play around the league has never been better or deeper than this - there’s easily 20 qbs who are good enough to win a Super Bowl with

And the other big problem with recycling through rookie qbs is that there have to be enough high quality starters coming through - 2018’s qb class is basically unprecedented in terms of quality and depth of quality - you’ve got 5 rookie starters who started on merit

The 2019 class looks awful and may not bare a franchise starter at all...

Assuming every team in the league adopted this strategy you’d also end up with teams getting incredible value out of non rookie QBs because of the lower demand

And maybe more important than any of that is the new CBA in a couple of years that may completely change the salary cap and affect playing contracts all around the league

 

[GG.exe]

Rivers, Brees, Brady, and Luck, vs 4 teams on rookie QB contracts. Might be an interesting barometer of things to come...