I suppose this is the MVP discussion thread?
The MVP discourse is so annoying to me.
Every single fan base (yes, even Ravens fans) like to pretend that it's a narrative driven award and Lamar only won because the Ravens led the NFL in wins. They like to act like Josh Allen was snubbed with his superior stats.
Several things here.
1. Allen finished FIFTH in voting. The record difference isn't the reason he was FIFTH. There's more at play there, like perhaps 22 turnovers? Should Jameis Winston been considered in his 30/30 season? He had 5000 yards and over 30 touchdowns, after all.
2. The Ravens won 13 games, but the Lions, 49ers, and Cowboys won 12 games. The Lions didn't have a legitimate candidate, but the Cowboys had one and the 49ers had two. One win was NOT the difference between Lamar having 49 first place votes and those three getting a combined ZERO.
3. I never heard this idea of a narrative defining the award until Lamar last year. Previously, the most contentious MVP we had was Brady vs Rodgers and, honestly, that was a good debate in efficiency vs volume. Turns out, the efficiency was the preferred metric to go off of. However, generally, the MVP award is pretty accepted. We've definitely had some talked about races (Mahomes v Hurts, Ryan v Brady), but most people generally agree with the outcome. The "narrative and wins" argument was only invented because people felt that Lamar wasn't deserving, even if 49 voters disagreed.
Why is that relevant to this year? Well, simply put, Lamar is the best quarterback in the NFL and it isn't that close.
Last year, the narrative by fans was that Lamar was given the award by default because he beat Purdy on Christmas and there wasn't anyone else to give the award to. And that brings up two issues.
1. Lamar and the Ravens beat the breaks off of the Bills and Josh Allen. Even if Allen wasn't super saiyan, Allen was really mediocre and subpar.
2. The issue of "no outstanding candidate" isn't the case this year. Lamar is an outstanding candidate this year. There isn't a lack of a quality candidate.
But let's dive into what makes Lamar a great MVP candidate.
1. Josh Allen leads the NFL in EPA/play, but Lamar leads the NFL in passing EPA/play. What exactly does this tell us? That Josh Allen's EPA is heavily propped up by the tush push TDs he has (six on the season; 10 of Allen's non-passing touchdowns have been from the 8 or closer.) We can debate the value of the one yard tush push TDs, but if you don't weight those heavily, then it's fair to not value Josh's EPA as highly as Lamar's passing EPA.
2. Diving further into the passing EPA/play, the Ravens have a higher EPA/play with Henry off the field than with Henry on the field. That shouldn't be too surprising given the above since Henry is often not on the field for passing downs, but it is worth noting because Henry is often used as a reason Lamar can't win MVP. I don't want to suggest that the Ravens are better without Lamar, but I do want to suggest that Henry isn't the reason Lamar is having the season he is.
3. Lamar currently leads the NFL in QBR, passer rating, Y/A, AY/A, NY/A, ANY/A (and all related + variants, too), TD%, and is second in INT%. That's a lot of acronyms, but the skinny of it is that Lamar is having, bar none, the most efficient passing season in the NFL this season. Additionally, Lamar is fifth in passing yardage, second in total yardage, and second in touchdowns. The person leading in total touchdowns and yardage, Joe Burrow, is doing so on over 150 more passing attempts than Lamar. So, not only is Lamar efficient, but he's also outputting sheer volume.
But, Lamar isn't just having an efficiency season.
Currently, Lamar is having a historic season. If Lamar gets just 45 passing yards, one touchdown passing, and no interceptions, then Lamar will finish with the fewest interceptions ever for a player with 40+ passing touchdowns. I can’t remember the exact cut offs (they're very doable), but Lamar has the chance to finish with the highest single season passer rating ever. With just under 200 total yards, Lamar will finish with 5000 yards and over 40 total touchdowns. There's an outside chance Lamar has a 4000/900/40+ season.
Lamar isn't just a good candidate- he's the right one. Lamar being snubbed of MVP this year wouldn't be anything remotely near Purdy or Dak being "snubbed" last year- it'd be the biggest snub in NFL history.
I don't disagree that Allen is having a great season because he is, but it's unfortunate he's coming up against this season from Lamar because Lamar isn't just having a great season; he's having a historic one.
The MVP discourse is so annoying to me.
Every single fan base (yes, even Ravens fans) like to pretend that it's a narrative driven award and Lamar only won because the Ravens led the NFL in wins. They like to act like Josh Allen was snubbed with his superior stats.
Several things here.
1. Allen finished FIFTH in voting. The record difference isn't the reason he was FIFTH. There's more at play there, like perhaps 22 turnovers? Should Jameis Winston been considered in his 30/30 season? He had 5000 yards and over 30 touchdowns, after all.
2. The Ravens won 13 games, but the Lions, 49ers, and Cowboys won 12 games. The Lions didn't have a legitimate candidate, but the Cowboys had one and the 49ers had two. One win was NOT the difference between Lamar having 49 first place votes and those three getting a combined ZERO.
3. I never heard this idea of a narrative defining the award until Lamar last year. Previously, the most contentious MVP we had was Brady vs Rodgers and, honestly, that was a good debate in efficiency vs volume. Turns out, the efficiency was the preferred metric to go off of. However, generally, the MVP award is pretty accepted. We've definitely had some talked about races (Mahomes v Hurts, Ryan v Brady), but most people generally agree with the outcome. The "narrative and wins" argument was only invented because people felt that Lamar wasn't deserving, even if 49 voters disagreed.
Why is that relevant to this year? Well, simply put, Lamar is the best quarterback in the NFL and it isn't that close.
Last year, the narrative by fans was that Lamar was given the award by default because he beat Purdy on Christmas and there wasn't anyone else to give the award to. And that brings up two issues.
1. Lamar and the Ravens beat the breaks off of the Bills and Josh Allen. Even if Allen wasn't super saiyan, Allen was really mediocre and subpar.
2. The issue of "no outstanding candidate" isn't the case this year. Lamar is an outstanding candidate this year. There isn't a lack of a quality candidate.
But let's dive into what makes Lamar a great MVP candidate.
1. Josh Allen leads the NFL in EPA/play, but Lamar leads the NFL in passing EPA/play. What exactly does this tell us? That Josh Allen's EPA is heavily propped up by the tush push TDs he has (six on the season; 10 of Allen's non-passing touchdowns have been from the 8 or closer.) We can debate the value of the one yard tush push TDs, but if you don't weight those heavily, then it's fair to not value Josh's EPA as highly as Lamar's passing EPA.
2. Diving further into the passing EPA/play, the Ravens have a higher EPA/play with Henry off the field than with Henry on the field. That shouldn't be too surprising given the above since Henry is often not on the field for passing downs, but it is worth noting because Henry is often used as a reason Lamar can't win MVP. I don't want to suggest that the Ravens are better without Lamar, but I do want to suggest that Henry isn't the reason Lamar is having the season he is.
3. Lamar currently leads the NFL in QBR, passer rating, Y/A, AY/A, NY/A, ANY/A (and all related + variants, too), TD%, and is second in INT%. That's a lot of acronyms, but the skinny of it is that Lamar is having, bar none, the most efficient passing season in the NFL this season. Additionally, Lamar is fifth in passing yardage, second in total yardage, and second in touchdowns. The person leading in total touchdowns and yardage, Joe Burrow, is doing so on over 150 more passing attempts than Lamar. So, not only is Lamar efficient, but he's also outputting sheer volume.
But, Lamar isn't just having an efficiency season.
Currently, Lamar is having a historic season. If Lamar gets just 45 passing yards, one touchdown passing, and no interceptions, then Lamar will finish with the fewest interceptions ever for a player with 40+ passing touchdowns. I can’t remember the exact cut offs (they're very doable), but Lamar has the chance to finish with the highest single season passer rating ever. With just under 200 total yards, Lamar will finish with 5000 yards and over 40 total touchdowns. There's an outside chance Lamar has a 4000/900/40+ season.
Lamar isn't just a good candidate- he's the right one. Lamar being snubbed of MVP this year wouldn't be anything remotely near Purdy or Dak being "snubbed" last year- it'd be the biggest snub in NFL history.
I don't disagree that Allen is having a great season because he is, but it's unfortunate he's coming up against this season from Lamar because Lamar isn't just having a great season; he's having a historic one.
