The 2023 Offseason Thread

[rmcjacket23]

You think so ? I read Evans provides minimal cap relief. I do agree a restructure is likely, they can free up nearly 20 million in cap space by prorating to bonus for them both. If I’m the Bucs, I wouldn’t do that , they need to balance the scales and embrace a tough rebuild year.

Well, between the two, Evans would save about $2.3M if he's cut before June 1, and Godwin basically can't be cut before June 1, because he's got a fully gtd $20M salary and dead cap that is $11.2M more than his current cap number. Godwin is also signed through 2024, while Evans is on the final year of his deal in 2023.

So with Evans, you pretty much either have to extend him or I guess trade him. While I think he may be the most underrated and consistent receiver in the league, he'll be 30 this year, and I'm not sure it makes sense to extend him if you're in cap hell and you may be looking at a rebuild or rookie QB anyway.

I'm not going to do a deep dive into the Bucs cap situation, because I'm not sure I care enough to do it. On the surface, there's not a lot of "cuts" they can make for underproducing players to save a lot of space. They definitely went "all in" cap-wise for a Lombardi, it worked, and now they're stuck with the consequences. They do have a bunch of guys with large base salaries that can get restructured, and some guys with 1-2 years left on deals that could get extended. Donovan Smith, Carlton Davis, to name a few.

By the way... good exercise for those advocating for the "void year" phenomenon. It "worked" for the Bucs in that they got their SB ring, but Brady isn't playing for them this year and he'll cost them $35.1M in dead money. That's over 15% of their cap. That's what "void years" looks like.

 

[rmcjacket23]

That's a good question, because I have no idea. They left their QB without either of those for 2 years during which they failed to sign him, despite all the big talking. Now they seem to be eager to find a quality on coaching side and are promising the WR room overhaul but we still have no fucking idea who our QB really is.

I'm sick of all of it.

Sounds like the franchise tag is the perfect plan then. Get the new OC that Lamar allegedly gets say in picking, and get new receivers to throw to, which I was told by everybody, can't possibly be any worse than last year.

I really hope it doesn't play out this way, but I already started popping my popcorn for the summer, where Lamar gets tagged at $40-45M or whatever it is, every dumbass on the planet says he should hold out and not report until he gets an extension, no extension comes, and Lamar pulls up right around training camp and decides to start integrating himself in a new system with new players. Then struggles early in the year, and somehow, it'll be "the FO fault".

I'm getting a woody just thinking about how much I'm going to eviscerate people for those laughably bad "takes".

I'd prefer it not go that way, but I like to see the positives in every scenario...

 

[drjohnnyfever]

What's the point of being aggressive in FA though if you don't have a QB? I'd be surprised if they're overly concerned about big names in FA at this point, regardless of the decision. I highly doubt they're going to rush this thing so they can participate in the annual overpayers banquet.

You would do your best to sure up the weaknesses of the team and try to get younger where you have Houston, Campbell, and Peters, for example. I'm not advocating going out and getting the highest priced WR, but we could certainly spend some money we don't have if we resign Lamar to get better at CB on the DL... One of the positions they'd be looking at is QB, of course. Who knows who might be available.

I just have a hard time believing that the Ravens are going to suddenly pull a Browns and throw money at Lamar just to have him. I think more likely they are prudent and instead of trying to move all kinds of limited money around and ask for restructures, that they'll wash their hands of the whole situation, take picks as the capital they are, and essentially get rid of two headaches, Lamar's contract and the resultant necessary manipulation of money to make the cap work, with one bold move - saying goodbye.

I mean, I've read everything everyone has said here and it seems pretty obvious that it can work financially if we tag him, but the limits that puts on our ability to do anything to really help him related to more weapons is severely limited and it also impacts our ability to retain or find replacements for, specifically, the DEF. So to me that means it's Lamar on the franchise tag with the same personnel or less talented players (re. lower priced) for the most part rounding out the team. And that just doesn't seem like Ravens MO to me. Historically, I mean. Right player, right price.

 

[drjohnnyfever]

Agree. Though if you're trading Lamar for a heap of picks, I assume that would involve using one or multiple of those picks to draft a rookie QB to be your new franchise guy.

And so then you would pretty much invest tons in FA if you could. Also I would think some of the $ would be used to extend your own players, which we typically do more of that than spending lots in FA anyway.

Exactly, you do with Bateman and others what you were unable to do with Lamar, you lock them in, you draft well (hopefully), and you fill out the roster with some quality FA's.

 

[Simba]

You would do your best to sure up the weaknesses of the team and try to get younger where you have Houston, Campbell, and Peters, for example. I'm not advocating going out and getting the highest priced WR, but we could certainly spend some money we don't have if we resign Lamar to get better at CB on the DL... One of the positions they'd be looking at is QB, of course. Who knows who might be available.

I just have a hard time believing that the Ravens are going to suddenly pull a Browns and throw money at Lamar just to have him. I think more likely they are prudent and instead of trying to move all kinds of limited money around and ask for restructures, that they'll wash their hands of the whole situation, take picks as the capital they are, and essentially get rid of two headaches, Lamar's contract and the resultant necessary manipulation of money to make the cap work, with one bold move - saying goodbye.

I mean, I've read everything everyone has said here and it seems pretty obvious that it can work financially if we tag him, but the limits that puts on our ability to do anything to really help him related to more weapons is severely limited and it also impacts our ability to retain or find replacements for, specifically, the DEF. So to me that means it's Lamar on the franchise tag with the same personnel or less talented players (re. lower priced) for the most part rounding out the team. And that just doesn't seem like Ravens MO to me. Historically, I mean. Right player, right price.

That may be the ultimate path but I'm hard pressed to believe anything like that is happening before the league year opens in early March. That's the position you're missing here. Takes another team agreeing to a contract with him to facilitate a trade. That's a lot of shit that needs to happen in a little over a month. We've been trying to lock him up for 2 years now.

 

[Simba]

I might be in the minority, but I also think the prospect of Lamar playing on the tag is basically untenable at this point. Not because of the money, but because of the distraction. I'm not convinced either side wants to go through another year like 2022. It's reached it's breaking point to me, and a decision needs to be made one way or another.

 

[Michael M.]

You would do your best to sure up the weaknesses of the team and try to get younger where you have Houston, Campbell, and Peters, for example. I'm not advocating going out and getting the highest priced WR, but we could certainly spend some money we don't have if we resign Lamar to get better at CB on the DL... One of the positions they'd be looking at is QB, of course. Who knows who might be available.

I just have a hard time believing that the Ravens are going to suddenly pull a Browns and throw money at Lamar just to have him. I think more likely they are prudent and instead of trying to move all kinds of limited money around and ask for restructures, that they'll wash their hands of the whole situation, take picks as the capital they are, and essentially get rid of two headaches, Lamar's contract and the resultant necessary manipulation of money to make the cap work, with one bold move - saying goodbye.

I mean, I've read everything everyone has said here and it seems pretty obvious that it can work financially if we tag him, but the limits that puts on our ability to do anything to really help him related to more weapons is severely limited and it also impacts our ability to retain or find replacements for, specifically, the DEF. So to me that means it's Lamar on the franchise tag with the same personnel or less talented players (re. lower priced) for the most part rounding out the team. And that just doesn't seem like Ravens MO to me. Historically, I mean. Right player, right price.

I agree. I don't know how KC manages their money or contracts but they're worth emulating. Sorry but I think Mahomes is better than Lamar and they found a way to lock him in long term and he happily plays in the SB more often than not. In the meantime they surround him with multiple quality weapons, even post Hill. They pick up these guys like Toney and Smith-Schuster without missing a beat, decisions the Ravens seem to agonize over. Oh and they also found a way to pay Chris Jones.

 

[rmcjacket23]

I might be in the minority, but I also think the prospect of Lamar playing on the tag is basically untenable at this point. Not because of the money, but because of the distraction. I'm not convinced either side wants to go through another year like 2022. It's reached it's breaking point to me, and a decision needs to be made one way or another.

Well, for sure, Ravens don't want him to play on the tag. They'd like resolution quickly.

I just don't know with Lamar. If I'm him, $40-45M on a one year deal don't sound that bad to me. Especially if he wants more time to gauge what the roster/coaching staff will look like, and wants to see what the next 12 months brings in terms of market for QBs.

I'm certainly in the minority, but I think Lamar's desire for a long term deal is a lot lower than people think it is.

 

[drjohnnyfever]

That may be the ultimate path but I'm hard pressed to believe anything like that is happening before the league year opens in early March. That's the position you're missing here. Takes another team agreeing to a contract with him to facilitate a trade. That's a lot of shit that needs to happen in a little over a month. We've been trying to lock him up for 2 years now.

I might be in the minority, but I also think the prospect of Lamar playing on the tag is basically untenable at this point. Not because of the money, but because of the distraction. I'm not convinced either side wants to go through another year like 2022. It's reached it's breaking point to me, and a decision needs to be made one way or another.

Excellent points. I think you've hit the nail on the head. The negatives are many in the Franchise Tag scenarios. Does he agree to play as a franchised player? Is $45Mil enough to get him on the field for a year? I don't think so. He gets injured again his ability to get a top guaranteed money deal is gone. Are we ready to suddenly just pay him Watson money? I don't see it.

But where I see it different than you is what other teams are thinking. There are probably at least 5 teams that would back up the Brinks truck for Lamar right now and are likely getting packages together to get their hands on him. I believe that strongly. The Colts. Jim Irsay is crazy. And there are others like the dopey Browns owner that would throw caution to the wind and just get him to get him. Houston, Carolina, Raiders, Bucs, Dolphins, Jets, Rams, Minnesota. I think 3/4 of the league would consider it.

 

[Simba]

Well, for sure, Ravens don't want him to play on the tag. They'd like resolution quickly.

I just don't know with Lamar. If I'm him, $40-45M on a one year deal don't sound that bad to me. Especially if he wants more time to gauge what the roster/coaching staff will look like, and wants to see what the next 12 months brings in terms of market for QBs.

I'm certainly in the minority, but I think Lamar's desire for a long term deal is a lot lower than people think it is.

I'll preface that this all pure speculation...

But I don't think Lamar can go on another 1 year deal either. First off, he's very guarded and generally stays out of the media despite his superstardom. Now, I don't think that means he's just accepting any old deal, but I do think he's probably at the breaking point internally as well, because the media attention is starting to tarnish the brand he's been trying to build. Second, I'm not sure he can go another season getting injured and missing the end of the year. I'm typically not one to rag on that aspect, but when you're talking potentially $200+ million, you gotta do what you gotta do.

I think before this year, the tag seemed great. After this year, his team is hopefully pushing him in the correct direction...

 

[rmcjacket23]

I agree. I don't know how KC manages their money or contracts but they're worth emulating. Sorry but I think Mahomes is better than Lamar and they found a way to lock him in long term and he happily plays in the SB more often than not. In the meantime they surround him with multiple quality weapons, even post Hill. They pick up these guys like Toney and Smith-Schuster without missing a beat, decisions the Ravens seem to agonize over. Oh and they also found a way to pay Chris Jones.

Well couple things on this:
1. Mahomes hasn't been overly expensive last several years. This years cap hit was $35.8M, but he had been under $10M in 2020 and 2021. So not hard to see why they could pay people.
2. They did let a lot of people go last year. Tyreek Hill, Mathieu, etc.
3. Chiefs success in the last 12 months has mostly come from the draft. They've done well. Got Creed Humphrey, Trent McDuffie, Karlaftis, and some other draft picks from prior years that really stepped up. They even get production from guys like Pacheco and McKinnon who are dirt cheap.

I'll say this... in my opinion, they have a well below average WR room. Like they don't have terrible players, but none of them are world beaters. Juju is as middling a WR as it gets in this league, Toney wasn't there long and was injured when he was, and they basically just have guys like Hardman and MVS who are nobodies with average QBs and look serviceable, at best, with great one's.
And like the funny thing is that they have one of the best TEs ever, but because the NFL hasn't caught up to TE values, he costs half of what a WR with his production would cost.

Current Chiefs are good because Mahomes is an all-time great QB, they have maybe the best offensive play caller in the history of the sport, they built a solid Oline, and they've drafted well the last few years. Its not because they're spending wildly in FA or paying tons of $ to tons of people

 

[Simba]

Excellent points. I think you've hit the nail on the head. The negatives are many in the Franchise Tag scenarios. Does he agree to play as a franchised player? Is $45Mil enough to get him on the field for a year? I don't think so. He gets injured again his ability to get a top guaranteed money deal is gone. Are we ready to suddenly just pay him Watson money? I don't see it.

But where I see it different than you is what other teams are thinking. There are probably at least 5 teams that would back up the Brinks truck for Lamar right now and are likely getting packages together to get their hands on him. I believe that strongly. The Colts. Jim Irsay is crazy. And there are others like the dopey Browns owner that would throw caution to the wind and just get him to get him. Houston, Carolina, Raiders, Bucs, Dolphins, Jets, Rams, Minnesota. I think 3/4 of the league would consider it.

And that's where we differ. Teams are absolutely going to want to pay him, and they'll probably want to pay him more than the Ravens are offering in the current state at least. However, I don't think what the Ravens have reportedly offered is an insult or anything. It's reasonable. And that's also not to say Lamar is dumb to not accept - he's well within his right to push for what he wants and I support that side as well.

I guess I just struggle with the idea that some team out there is just going to give him exactly what he wants on a contract and it's all hunky dory and done just like that. The reported gap between what Lamar supposedly wants and what offers the Ravens (and likely other teams as well if it gets to that point) are presenting is pretty significant. A team coming in and giving Lamar what he's assumed to want reshapes the league entirely. I guess I just don't agree that this is an easy contract from any team's perspective. Teams have given out dumb, big contracts before but the assumption with Lamar just seems far too grandiose for me because this is significantly more money.

Maybe I'm wrong. I hope I'm not.

 

[drjohnnyfever]

Well, for sure, Ravens don't want him to play on the tag. They'd like resolution quickly.

I just don't know with Lamar. If I'm him, $40-45M on a one year deal don't sound that bad to me. Especially if he wants more time to gauge what the roster/coaching staff will look like, and wants to see what the next 12 months brings in terms of market for QBs.

I'm certainly in the minority, but I think Lamar's desire for a long term deal is a lot lower than people think it is.

...but if there was any truth to his not coming back sooner out of fear for worsening an injury, why would he be ok to play a year with no commitment? He wants a big guarantee. Period. I'd be shocked if he didn't arrive right at training camp if he's tagged or hold out.

 

[rmcjacket23]

I'll preface that this all pure speculation...

But I don't think Lamar can go on another 1 year deal either. First off, he's very guarded and generally stays out of the media despite his superstardom. Now, I don't think that means he's just accepting any old deal, but I do think he's probably at the breaking point internally as well, because the media attention is starting to tarnish the brand he's been trying to build. Second, I'm not sure he can go another season getting injured and missing the end of the year. I'm typically not one to rag on that aspect, but when you're talking potentially $200+ million, you gotta do what you gotta do.

I think before this year, the tag seemed great. After this year, his team is hopefully pushing him in the correct direction...

I'm not sure the injury thing concerns him that much, because his injuries have largely been short term one's. Its not like he's tearing an ACL every year and missing 12 games.

If he's concerned about injuries tarnishing him, he's at least a year or two late to the "get me an extension game".

I think if he has another season precisely like last years, it'll just make it that much easier for the Ravens to decide he ain't "it" and trade him next year. And whether that's good or bad for Lamar's value will largely be on him at that point.

 

[rmcjacket23]

And that's where we differ. Teams are absolutely going to want to pay him, and they'll probably want to pay him more than the Ravens are offering in the current state at least. However, I don't think what the Ravens have reportedly offered is an insult or anything. It's reasonable. And that's also not to say Lamar is dumb to not accept - he's well within his right to push for what he wants and I support that side as well.

I guess I just struggle with the idea that some team out there is just going to give him exactly what he wants on a contract and it's all hunky dory and done just like that. The reported gap between what Lamar supposedly wants and what offers the Ravens (and likely other teams as well if it gets to that point) are presenting is pretty significant. A team coming in and giving Lamar what he's assumed to want reshapes the league entirely. I guess I just don't agree that this is an easy contract from any team's perspective. Teams have given out dumb, big contracts before but the assumption with Lamar just seems far too grandiose for me because this is significantly more money.

Maybe I'm wrong. I hope I'm not.

So again, if he has a season in 2023 exactly like 2022, I think there's several teams (like the Jets who come to mind) that would gladly give up many draft picks and lots of $ for him. I don't think it would be a fully gtd deal, but I'd bet they'd be willing to make him the highest paid player in the NFL.

 

[Simba]

I'm not sure the injury thing concerns him that much, because his injuries have largely been short term one's. Its not like he's tearing an ACL every year and missing 12 games.

If he's concerned about injuries tarnishing him, he's at least a year or two late to the "get me an extension game".

I think if he has another season precisely like last years, it'll just make it that much easier for the Ravens to decide he ain't "it" and trade him next year. And whether that's good or bad for Lamar's value will largely be on him at that point.

I think it's a secondary concern as far as the injuries, but I also firmly believe there's a number that gets it done where he doesn't have to worry about that security anymore. Going to take both sides to make some concessions of course, and it will reset the market to an extent, but not to the 'reshape the league' level.

 

[Simba]

So again, if he has a season in 2023 exactly like 2022, I think there's several teams (like the Jets who come to mind) that would gladly give up many draft picks and lots of $ for him. I don't think it would be a fully gtd deal, but I'd bet they'd be willing to make him the highest paid player in the NFL.

And I think that's a fair assumption. I just don't know that any team out there is willing to offer significantly more than the Ravens like so many assume. I think there will be teams that offer more, but I also don't think there's a team out there that is backing up the truck and getting Lamar done lickety split in a trade scenario.

 

[rmcjacket23]

I think it's a secondary concern as far as the injuries, but I also firmly believe there's a number that gets it done where he doesn't have to worry about that security anymore. Going to take both sides to make some concessions of course, and it will reset the market to an extent, but not to the 'reshape the league' level.

Agreed. The "concessions on both sides" aspect is what I've been shaping for. I don't think either side planting their stake in the ground and saying "take it or leave it" is going to result in any outcome either side wants.

 

[Simba]

I think a lot of people also overestimate how dumb teams are as well, personally. A significant number of the owners were pissed at the Browns for Watson and I don't think they're going to go down that road.

Again, could be wrong, but just doesn't seem realistic all things considered.

 

[Michael M.]

Well couple things on this:
1. Mahomes hasn't been overly expensive last several years. This years cap hit was $35.8M, but he had been under $10M in 2020 and 2021. So not hard to see why they could pay people.
2. They did let a lot of people go last year. Tyreek Hill, Mathieu, etc.
3. Chiefs success in the last 12 months has mostly come from the draft. They've done well. Got Creed Humphrey, Trent McDuffie, Karlaftis, and some other draft picks from prior years that really stepped up. They even get production from guys like Pacheco and McKinnon who are dirt cheap.

I'll say this... in my opinion, they have a well below average WR room. Like they don't have terrible players, but none of them are world beaters. Juju is as middling a WR as it gets in this league, Toney wasn't there long and was injured when he was, and they basically just have guys like Hardman and MVS who are nobodies with average QBs and look serviceable, at best, with great one's.
And like the funny thing is that they have one of the best TEs ever, but because the NFL hasn't caught up to TE values, he costs half of what a WR with his production would cost.

Current Chiefs are good because Mahomes is an all-time great QB, they have maybe the best offensive play caller in the history of the sport, they built a solid Oline, and they've drafted well the last few years. Its not because they're spending wildly in FA or paying tons of $ to tons of people

Also seems like the Reid/Mahomes combo are becoming the next Belichik/Brady. I don't sense that with Harbaugh and Lamar...But another team who has found their duo are the Jags. Pederson/Lawrence have a bright future