Signings, Cuts, Trades

[rmcjacket23]

I mean logically if Stafford plays 5 games the Rams are still 75% to make the playoffs because the rest of the roster is so overwhelming. That bet needs to pay out at +800 for it to even be a bet worth considering so at +350 it is terrible odds. To say the Rams are 90% to make the playoffs is being generous to the 10%. They need not only a QB injury but to be one of the 1-2 teams a year that has their entire roster get injured. Unfortunately those teams are usually cycling between 49ers, Ravens, and Chargers, with the occasional wild card thrown in.

lol what math did you use to come up with a 75% probability or a +800 to miss the playoffs, which would be one of the biggest props in NFL history. There's legit super teams with exponentially better rosters than there's who weren't priced that high.

 

[Adreme]

lol what math did you use to come up with a 75% probability or a +800 to miss the playoffs, which would be one of the biggest props in NFL history. There's legit super teams with exponentially better rosters than there's who weren't priced that high.

They are a super team. I would stack their roster against every super team in the salary cap era. +350 means you think they are about a 20-25% chance to miss the playoffs in order for that bet to be even odds.

Last year there were 2 teams in the NFC that were clearly the top 2 in the Rams and Seahawks and the Seahawks are a little worse and the Rams are a lot better. So lets back up and review. The Rams conservatively are: top 5 OLine, top 5 weapons, top 2 QB. The Rams weakness was secondary, specifically they were 1 corner short of an elite defense, and they want and added an all pro CB to plug that hole. Then they added the best pass rusher in football to a team that finished 8th in sacks last year.

Basically if you gave me a choice for one of two bets (these have about the same odds): Rams miss playoffs or Garrett breaks his sack record I am taking the latter every time because Garrett is finally in a position where he will be on a team that is ahead more often so he can get more pass rush snaps.