The Random Thought Thread

[rossihunter2]

I honestly don't know, and it'll be subjective. I would think one every 2-3 years would be realistic. Regardless of how you view the hierarchy of rounds, you're going to draft like 15-20 players during that period. I don't think expecting one or maybe even two during that period is unrealistic.

And I'm not talking like HOFers necessarily either. I don't expect us to land Ray Lewis or Ed Reed every 2-3 years. But guys that are like universally top like 3-5 players at their positions I think is reasonable.

And I'm also OK with it being in batches. Like 2018 you landed 2-3 complete studs. A top 5-10 QB by every metric, a top 2-3 TE and a top 2-3 RT (now a high-end, soon to be highest paid LT). That was in one draft. Some years you'll have none, some years you'll have multiple.

i think when you average it out over time then 1 every 2-3 is probably fair - but i think that only works over the long-term and not many GMs make it to the long-term... only 12 current GMs have been in their post longer than 4 seasons (5 drafts at this point although none of the 2022 drafted players have played yet obviously)

 

[rmcjacket23]

Thinking of all of the big contracts in the past that were signed, then the player out with injuries. Using that metric Oz would have been a flop. lol

You sure about that? You can't think of any draft picks, free agent signings, trades, or SB rings that Ozzie has where he was the GM that might make people think differently?

Ozzie can screw up some drafts and botch some signings because he hit homeruns on so many others. Eric hasn't been here long enough to have those homeruns be credited just to him. He was here as PART of those achievements, but he wasn't the man in charge of them that other people will notice.

I mean, to this point, Eric has handed out basically four very large contracts to this point... Marlon, Stanley, Earl Thomas, and Marcus Williams. ET was a disaster, Stanley's looks terrible two years in, and Marcus Williams hasn't played a snap yet. His fault, not his fault, doesn't matter to the public. GM's and Coaches don't get graded on "I tried". "I tried" + not winning enough = "I got fired".
Now in Eric's defense, he's won enough, and he has enough credibility in the FO that his job isn't in jeopardy (obviously). Doesn't mean the rest of the league is just going to give him a token "you're great" award because his predecessor was and he learned from him. He's gotta forge his own path and his own legacy.

 

[rmcjacket23]

i think when you average it out over time then 1 every 2-3 is probably fair - but i think that only works over the long-term and not many GMs make it to the long-term... only 12 current GMs have been in their post longer than 4 seasons (5 drafts at this point although none of the 2022 drafted players have played yet obviously)

Precisely my point. If DeCosta didn't have the in-house credibility and long tenure he has with this franchise, and he performed exactly as he's performed in the last 3+ years as a standalone GM of another team, he's probably a year or two away from being firmly on the hot seat in terms of "do I keep my job". And that's with a guy who's actually won quite a lot.

Most NFL teams and Owners don't give GM's the luxury of waiting 4-5 drafts in before they identify some stars. When those GM's hand out large contracts to players that other GM's drafted, and those players don't work out, they get buried for it. When those GMs sign FAs to contracts that end up blowing up in their face (like ET), those GMs get buried for it.

Just watch what happens in New York with Joe Douglas. About as highly a respected scout, personnel man in the business. Every team wanted him. His entire tenure in NY will live or die with Zach Wilson. Zach Wilson fails, Joe Douglas fails, and he won't be the GM there anymore. Zach Wilson succeeds, and he'll be able to keep that job for a decade or more. Good drafts, good signings, bad drafts, bad signings.

 

[RavensMania]

I'm not so sure it does in some cases though. If there's one thing we should have learned, especially in recent drafts, its that picking like top 5 or 10 doesn't guarantee you anything.

I know we can draft one of the best TEs in the league in the third round, because we did it recently. I know we can draft one of the top tackles in all of football in the third round, because we did it recently. I know we can get a very high end QB in the late first round, because we did it recently.

And we're not the only team that does that either. I set the bar a bit higher for a high first round pick, but I don't give teams a pass necessarily for not being able to draft and develop stars just because of draft position.

oh I agree, picking in the top 5 to 10 doesn't guarantee you anything, but for some positions getting a top 3 player tends to come from the top 10. Now is that all the time, of course not, but your chances do increase.

Top TEs typically don't come from the first round, but top QBs typically did. Yes we did it, but it doesn't happen that often.

Now are you saying Lamar Jackson is top 3 to 5. I'm asking your opinion, because this is subjective. Most of the time, elite QBs don't last to the end of the first round and you no it.

Anyway, some positions are easier to hit on without having a top pick in the first round.

 

[rmcjacket23]

oh I agree, picking in the top 5 to 10 doesn't guarantee you anything, but for some positions getting a top 3 player tends to come from the top 10. Now is that all the time, of course not, but your chances do increase.

Top TEs typically don't come from the first round, but top QBs typically did. Yes we did it, but it doesn't happen that often.

Now are you saying Lamar Jackson is top 3 to 5. I'm asking your opinion, because this is subjective. Most of the time, elite QBs don't last to the end of the first round and you no it.

Anyway, some positions are easier to hit on without having a top pick in the first round.

I have Lamar as a top 8-10 QB. Could be as high as 6-7, depending on how you view things and how you rate certain aspects. But that's sort of irrelevant to me also.

I think most positions aren't particularly hard to "hit" on from a star perspective outside the top 10-15 or even outside the first round.
I'd say QBs are difficult to find without a high pick
I'd say high-end LTs are difficult to find without a high pick
And for me, that's kind of about it. You could maybe make a mild case for Corner and WR, but I think there's plenty of high end players at those positions that weren't high picks.

Literally every other position I think you can find stars with later picks. RB, TE, Interior Oline, Safety, Linebacker, Dline, and Pass Rushers. I think there's plenty of very good one's that weren't high picks, and its not unreasonable to think any GM in the league should find some on occasion.

 

[Tank]

You sure about that? You can't think of any draft picks, free agent signings, trades, or SB rings that Ozzie has where he was the GM that might make people think differently?

Ozzie can screw up some drafts and botch some signings because he hit homeruns on so many others. Eric hasn't been here long enough to have those homeruns be credited just to him. He was here as PART of those achievements, but he wasn't the man in charge of them that other people will notice.

I mean, to this point, Eric has handed out basically four very large contracts to this point... Marlon, Stanley, Earl Thomas, and Marcus Williams. ET was a disaster, Stanley's looks terrible two years in, and Marcus Williams hasn't played a snap yet. His fault, not his fault, doesn't matter to the public. GM's and Coaches don't get graded on "I tried". "I tried" + not winning enough = "I got fired".
Now in Eric's defense, he's won enough, and he has enough credibility in the FO that his job isn't in jeopardy (obviously). Doesn't mean the rest of the league is just going to give him a token "you're great" award because his predecessor was and he learned from him. He's gotta forge his own path and his own legacy.

I think you’ve made my intended point here and in other posts. There’s not enough history with Eric to judge his true effectiveness regardless of unfortunate contracts.

 

[Deebo813]

Tbh all media gotta do is put a narrative out there that “ so and so GM in the best in nfl” and everyone will run with lol.. i havent seen the list but las snead should hands down be #1 and veach should be #2…

 

[redrum52]

First pre season game is against the Titans... This should be interesting.

 

[Adreme]

i think when you average it out over time then 1 every 2-3 is probably fair - but i think that only works over the long-term and not many GMs make it to the long-term... only 12 current GMs have been in their post longer than 4 seasons (5 drafts at this point although none of the 2022 drafted players have played yet obviously)

I mean the thing is in that case people would be looking at your first class and 2019 was an awful draft. Your best pick from that draft still turned out to be a bad read both in hindsight and foresight. I remember on here people were debating about whether they would go for Deebo or DK and AJ Brown and even by most talking heads, which you better be better at your job than them, they were considered the top WR prospects in the class and the Ravens zigged and it turned out zagging was better and they ended up with the 5th or 6th best player at his position in the draft as the first at his position off the board. Combine that with the rest of the whiffs and that is the kind of draft that can set a franchise back (and I would argue has held them back).

If a GM is to make it to the long term he cannot have a draft like that. Fortunately the Ravens were already loaded so they stayed in contention despite basically having a nonexistent 2019 class.

 

[Deebo813]

I mean the thing is in that case people would be looking at your first class and 2019 was an awful draft. Your best pick from that draft still turned out to be a bad read both in hindsight and foresight. I remember on here people were debating about whether they would go for Deebo or DK and AJ Brown and even by most talking heads, which you better be better at your job than them, they were considered the top WR prospects in the class and the Ravens zigged and it turned out zagging was better and they ended up with the 5th or 6th best player at his position in the draft as the first at his position off the board. Combine that with the rest of the whiffs and that is the kind of draft that can set a franchise back (and I would argue has held them back).

If a GM is to make it to the long term he cannot have a draft like that. Fortunately the Ravens were already loaded so they stayed in contention despite basically having a nonexistent 2019 class.

Hollywood wasnt a bad pick at all.. dk would not be dk with us.. we 100% wouldnt have used samuel the way shannhon uses him..im sure both samuel and dk wouldve requested a trade just like hollywood did.. i think aj brown would be a monster with us tbh..

All hollywood has to do is get 1200-1300 yards with cards, which is possible and people gonna start ranking him differently

 

[RavensMania]

Hollywood wasnt a bad pick at all.. dk would not be dk with us.. we 100% wouldnt have used samuel the way shannhon uses him..im sure both samuel and dk wouldve requested a trade just like hollywood did.. i think aj brown would be a monster with us tbh..

All hollywood has to do is get 1200-1300 yards with cards, which is possible and people gonna start ranking him differently

exactly. Just because a player is great on one team doesn't mean he is going to be near that player on another team.

 

[rmcjacket23]

I think you’ve made my intended point here and in other posts. There’s not enough history with Eric to judge his true effectiveness regardless of unfortunate contracts.

I don't disagree. Though it also doesn't matter, because it's in the context of people arbitrarily ranking GM's. A list that excludes GM's based on "I don't have enough info to know if they're good or not" would include at least half the GMs in the league, if not more.

If you're suggesting you just don't do the lists then, I would agree with that.

 

[Ellicottraven]

Hollywood wasnt a bad pick at all.. dk would not be dk with us.. we 100% wouldnt have used samuel the way shannhon uses him..im sure both samuel and dk wouldve requested a trade just like hollywood did.. i think aj brown would be a monster with us tbh..

All hollywood has to do is get 1200-1300 yards with cards, which is possible and people gonna start ranking him differently

He's going to get more than that with the Cards offense. They've too many weapons.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Hollywood wasnt a bad pick at all.. dk would not be dk with us.. we 100% wouldnt have used samuel the way shannhon uses him..im sure both samuel and dk wouldve requested a trade just like hollywood did.. i think aj brown would be a monster with us tbh..

All hollywood has to do is get 1200-1300 yards with cards, which is possible and people gonna start ranking him differently

I mean I wouldn't rank him differently. 1,200-1,300 yards on the Cardinals, as the teams defacto #1 WR for half a season, would basically be the floor for me. They throw the ball a ton out there, so I would expect his stats to only increase. Also part of the reason he wanted to go there is because they throw it so much.

If you told me he'd get 1,200-1,300 yards on the Patriots, then yes, I'd be impressed.

 

[rmcjacket23]

exactly. Just because a player is great on one team doesn't mean he is going to be near that player on another team.

And that's fine. But in the context of a GM evaluation... why would Eric get credit for a player he drafted doing better on another team than this one? How does that make him, or the organization, look good?

And no, Hollywood wasn't a bad pick.

 

[Adreme]

Hollywood wasnt a bad pick at all.. dk would not be dk with us.. we 100% wouldnt have used samuel the way shannhon uses him..im sure both samuel and dk wouldve requested a trade just like hollywood did.. i think aj brown would be a monster with us tbh..

All hollywood has to do is get 1200-1300 yards with cards, which is possible and people gonna start ranking him differently

Even if he plays well with the Cards, you still definitely had the worst of that group (can’t blame him for not getting the other 2-3 who were also better in their circumstances).

DK though would have been great here for all the reasons Hollywood was okay. The skill set would work great with Lamar.

That brings us back to the problem that your best pick was the worst of the top tier and the other picks were very forgettable. 2020 needs those players to take a step forward because otherwise that draft will also not look great (I think they will but in the NFL you are what you are until shown otherwise).

The end argument being that outside of being a trade master, I don’t disagree with how EDC has been viewed thus far because there is nothing to counter that narrative.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Even if he plays well with the Cards, you still definitely had the worst of that group (can’t blame him for not getting the other 2-3 who were also better in their circumstances).

DK though would have been great here for all the reasons Hollywood was okay. The skill set would work great with Lamar.

That brings us back to the problem that your best pick was the worst of the top tier and the other picks were very forgettable. 2020 needs those players to take a step forward because otherwise that draft will also not look great (I think they will but in the NFL you are what you are until shown otherwise).

The end argument being that outside of being a trade master, I don’t disagree with how EDC has been viewed thus far because there is nothing to counter that narrative.

Agree. The narrative on Hollywood changes if you sign him to an extension and he plays like he did last year for another 5-6 years.
But in reality, you drafted a receiver in the first round, he played three seasons, had one thousand yard season, and then was traded away. If the player you get in that trade doesn't work out, it's not exactly a ringing endorsement.
And, as I said, to this point, he's easily the best player Eric has drafted with NFL film on them. Still an early sample size, but nobody from the 2019 or 2020 drafts look anywhere close to his level at this point.

 

[Tank]

I don't disagree. Though it also doesn't matter, because it's in the context of people arbitrarily ranking GM's. A list that excludes GM's based on "I don't have enough info to know if they're good or not" would include at least half the GMs in the league, if not more.

If you're suggesting you just don't do the lists then, I would agree with that.

I'm suggesting that if there's not enough info you don't pay attention to the lists or get upset that your guy is ranked lower than you think he should be.

 

[Deebo813]

I mean I wouldn't rank him differently. 1,200-1,300 yards on the Cardinals, as the teams defacto #1 WR for half a season, would basically be the floor for me. They throw the ball a ton out there, so I would expect his stats to only increase. Also part of the reason he wanted to go there is because they throw it so much.

If you told me he'd get 1,200-1,300 yards on the Patriots, then yes, I'd be impressed.

Gotta be impressed no matter the team or system cause thats not easy to come across.He dam near had 1200 with us. Most players dnt and will never get that. Shit leaving our team and your stats likely to increase no matter what team you go to lol.

 

[rmcjacket23]

I'm suggesting that if there's not enough info you don't pay attention to the lists or get upset that your guy is ranked lower than you think he should be.

And I agree with that. Though there's also no objective measurement for "there's enough info", so you could make that case of like 10 years if you really wanted to.
Plus the reality is that, in whatever arbitrary list somebody comes up with, if we were discounting or ignoring GMs who don't have a big enough sample size, that doesn't mean your guy would move up the list either. It just means that you'd only be able to evaluate less than half of the GMs in the league in some cases.