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The Random Thought Thread

I feel like I’m reading in most of the game analysis is that one of our challenges is the Browns D. From what I can find they are the #24 rushing D and #29 total (yards) and #20 in scoring. They are #2 in takeaways so there is that.

Seems like as long as we hold onto the ball we should be ok. As far as the Browns D being formidable ... what am I missing?
 
balfan23 said:
I feel like I’m reading in most of the game analysis is that one of our challenges is the Browns D. From what I can find they are the #24 rushing D and #29 total (yards) and #20 in scoring. They are #2 in takeaways so there is that.

Seems like as long as we hold onto the ball we should be ok. As far as the Browns D being formidable ... what am I missing?
Click to expand...

They are number 2 in takeaways and this offense has been shooting itself in the foot a lot lately. That could be as bad combination.
 
Follow up numbers that split the Ravens Flacco games and Lamar games with regards to 3rd down offence - this is really interesting...

H23lMsz.png


Interestingly the Lamar offence is way more likely to convert on both 3rd and short AND 3rd and long than the Flacco offence...

in fact if we adjusted the numbers for Lamar's offence and replaced those values in the league charts the results are kinda crazy...

the Ravens already have the best conversion rate on 3rd and short but in Lamar's offence there's a 6.5% gap between the Ravens and the 2nd placed Giants - that's an unbelievable difference - almost 9 out of 10 times the Ravens convert 3rd and short

3rd and medium, interestingly our numbers are marginally worse with Lamar than with Joe and that takes us out of the top 10 (Joe's offence would rank 7th in the NFL in 3rd and medium in stead of the 10th rank combined conversion rate and the outside the top 10 ranking of the Lamar offence in this category)

3rd and long gets a little crazy... because despite Joe's big arm his offence ranked only just outside the bottom 5 conversion rates in the NFL (despite the anecdotal impression that the Ravens were better at 3rd and long with Flacco than in previous years) - but the combined conversion rate over 16 games still has the Ravens in the top 10 - which is why it's a bit crazy...

Lamar's offence in 3rd and long would be the tied 3rd best conversion rate offence in the NFL equal with the Bucs and only behind the Falcons and Colts...

that's insane

in terms of the dataset it's smaller than the rest of the NFL for Lamar mostly but his offence has now amassed 40% of the total Ravens 3rd downs and has 60% of the flacco offence 3rd down snap count so it's not insignificant at this point

obviously every positive play (and negative play) has a much larger impact on Lamar's stats and there's a higher variance and error vs the rest of the NFL but again it's only just under half a regular season's dataset

EDIT: i italicised the important bits in case anyone cba to read the sample size stuff
 
balfan23 said:
I feel like I’m reading in most of the game analysis is that one of our challenges is the Browns D. From what I can find they are the #24 rushing D and #29 total (yards) and #20 in scoring. They are #2 in takeaways so there is that.

Seems like as long as we hold onto the ball we should be ok. As far as the Browns D being formidable ... what am I missing?
Click to expand...

it's more that they've got a high variance in play level because of their aggressive coach and they have some serious playmakers on that side of the ball...

they were admittedly much better earlier in the season and they may be missing denzel ward too
 
rossihunter2 said:
Follow up numbers that split the Ravens Flacco games and Lamar games with regards to 3rd down offence - this is really interesting...

H23lMsz.png


Interestingly the Lamar offence is way more likely to convert on both 3rd and short AND 3rd and long than the Flacco offence...

in fact if we adjusted the numbers for Lamar's offence and replaced those values in the league charts the results are kinda crazy...

the Ravens already have the best conversion rate on 3rd and short but in Lamar's offence there's a 6.5% gap between the Ravens and the 2nd placed Giants - that's an unbelievable difference - almost 9 out of 10 times the Ravens convert 3rd and short

3rd and medium, interestingly our numbers are marginally worse with Lamar than with Joe and that takes us out of the top 10 (Joe's offence would rank 7th in the NFL in 3rd and medium in stead of the 10th rank combined conversion rate and the outside the top 10 ranking of the Lamar offence in this category)

3rd and long gets a little crazy... because despite Joe's big arm his offence ranked only just outside the bottom 5 conversion rates in the NFL (despite the anecdotal impression that the Ravens were better at 3rd and long with Flacco than in previous years) - but the combined conversion rate over 16 games still has the Ravens in the top 10 - which is why it's a bit crazy...

Lamar's offence in 3rd and long would be the tied 3rd best conversion rate offence in the NFL equal with the Bucs and only behind the Falcons and Colts...

that's insane

in terms of the dataset it's smaller than the rest of the NFL for Lamar mostly but his offence has now amassed 40% of the total Ravens 3rd downs and has 60% of the flacco offence 3rd down snap count so it's not insignificant at this point

obviously every positive play (and negative play) has a much larger impact on Lamar's stats and there's a higher variance and error vs the rest of the NFL but again it's only just under half a regular season's dataset

EDIT: i italicised the important bits in case anyone cba to read the sample size stuff
Click to expand...
I would add that this is also a comparison of the Collins/Allen and Edwards/Dixon RB tandems.
 
Tank said:
I would add that this is also a comparison of the Collins/Allen and Edwards/Dixon RB tandems.
Click to expand...
No question that is part of it, but Lamar is playing a big role in the success of Edwards and Dixon, not to take anything away from them.
 
Tank said:
I would add that this is also a comparison of the Collins/Allen and Edwards/Dixon RB tandems.
Click to expand...

the big takeaway for me was more about the difference in effectiveness on 3rd and long - our offence with flacco (and collins and buck) would also be 2nd in the league on 3rd and short still...
 
RavensMania said:
No question that is part of it, but Lamar is playing a big role in the success of Edwards and Dixon, not to take anything away from them.
Click to expand...
And Edwards and Dixon are playing a big role in the success of Lamar, not to take away anything from Lamar.
 
Tank said:
And Edwards and Dixon are playing a big role in the success of Lamar, not to take away anything from Lamar.
Click to expand...
In my opinion, they're playing well BECAUSE of Lamar. No way they'd have this kind of success with Flacco.
 
Tank said:
So why didn’t they just stay with Collins and Allen?
Click to expand...
Collins had fumbling issues and Allen was one dimensional. I wouldn’t doubt if Dixon is in the doghouse after that fumble in LA as well. I really think Gus is a product of Lamar regardless of how much I like the kid. Look how underwhelming his college stats were.
 
Tank said:
So why didn’t they just stay with Collins and Allen?
Click to expand...

One thing to mention here is that our O line loves the run game. They are a bunch of smash mouth road graders. Not the best in pass blocking. But to your point Edwards and Dixon have been killing it.
 
SaltyDog said:
One thing to mention here is that our O line loves the run game. They are a bunch of smash mouth road graders. Not the best in pass blocking. But to your point Edwards and Dixon have been killing it.
Click to expand...
Yeah, it was a rhetorical question, obviously Gus and Kenny are a huge upgrade.
 
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