The Random Thought Thread

[rossihunter2]

Man it really seems like the Ravens want to squeeze every bit they can get out of him. Obviously that's great, I just hope they aren't too reliant on him.

now that he's not playing any DL at all he looks like he's trimmed down slightly and it makes sense that we would want to increase his role in the passing attack and with the ball in his hands - if he's on the field a lot, why not make him a legitimate option

 

[UPennChem]

now that he's not playing any DL at all he looks like he's trimmed down slightly and it makes sense that we would want to increase his role in the passing attack and with the ball in his hands - if he's on the field a lot, why not make him a legitimate option

Agreed!

 

[rossihunter2]

material steps towards change leveraging their platform as nfl players
really cool - pretty sure these sorts of actual steps are pretty much unprecedented in terms of pro sports (at least in america)

 

[JoeyFlex5]

I feel like Eric decosta had to have just been shocked as all hell when the ravens were on the clock for almost every day 2 pick. Like Holy shit dobbins this late? Madubuike this late? Harrison this late? I was VERY big on Malik Harrison, I wouldn’t be surprised if he turned out the better LB from this ravens class, and when I see his camp looks, hear the reports, and go back and watch again, I can’t believe he was available when he was, he’s a top half of round 2 prospect at worst, if Seattle took Malik Harrison instead of jordyn Brooks I would’ve been like damn that’s really not a bad pick. Like I can’t fathom how the nfl let this guy fall so far that we took him on day 2, but not before taking dobbins madubuike and duvernay. Eric had to have been twitching at the thought of not taking Harrison for the first 2 picks in round 3.

 

[rmcjacket23]

I feel like Eric decosta had to have just been shocked as all hell when the ravens were on the clock for almost every day 2 pick. Like Holy shit dobbins this late? Madubuike this late? Harrison this late? I was VERY big on Malik Harrison, I wouldn’t be surprised if he turned out the better LB from this ravens class, and when I see his camp looks, hear the reports, and go back and watch again, I can’t believe he was available when he was, he’s a top half of round 2 prospect at worst, if Seattle took Malik Harrison instead of jordyn Brooks I would’ve been like damn that’s really not a bad pick. Like I can’t fathom how the nfl let this guy fall so far that we took him on day 2, but not before taking dobbins madubuike and duvernay. Eric had to have been twitching at the thought of not taking Harrison for the first 2 picks in round 3.

To be fair... I'm pretty sure every single year the Ravens talk about how much "value" they get at pretty much every spot they draft. They seemingly always say "yeah we got this guy in the 3rd and we had a 2nd round grade on him". And that's great and all, but like every other NFL team, we still hit like less than 50% on draft picks. Which means some of these guys that we think we "stole" in the draft won't amount to much.

Or, put it another way... 32 out of 32 NFL teams, every single year since the beginning of the draft, think they did great on draft day. All of them. You've never once heard somebody say "yeah we reached for everybody, didn't get anybody we liked, etc.".

The whole thing is just one big crap shoot. People mocked me in the past for telling them that quantity of draft picks was arguably more important than quality (i.e. position in the draft), and I still think that's true. They did a study like 5 years ago that evaluated like a 10 year sample of drafts, and the teams that had the most Pro Bowl players taken in the draft correlated highly with the teams who simply had the most (quantity) of draft picks. It had nothing to do with where you picked in the draft.

In a game of darts, where nobody is that good at it, the best chance you have of winning is to have the most darts to throw.

 

[Simba]

Not that I haven't noticed all offseason, but this video really shows that Ricard has noticeably slimmed down.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

To be fair... I'm pretty sure every single year the Ravens talk about how much "value" they get at pretty much every spot they draft. They seemingly always say "yeah we got this guy in the 3rd and we had a 2nd round grade on him". And that's great and all, but like every other NFL team, we still hit like less than 50% on draft picks. Which means some of these guys that we think we "stole" in the draft won't amount to much.

Or, put it another way... 32 out of 32 NFL teams, every single year since the beginning of the draft, think they did great on draft day. All of them. You've never once heard somebody say "yeah we reached for everybody, didn't get anybody we liked, etc.".

The whole thing is just one big crap shoot. People mocked me in the past for telling them that quantity of draft picks was arguably more important than quality (i.e. position in the draft), and I still think that's true. They did a study like 5 years ago that evaluated like a 10 year sample of drafts, and the teams that had the most Pro Bowl players taken in the draft correlated highly with the teams who simply had the most (quantity) of draft picks. It had nothing to do with where you picked in the draft.

In a game of darts, where nobody is that good at it, the best chance you have of winning is to have the most darts to throw.

thats great and all but im not going off of what the ravens say, im going off of what i thought of these players prior to the draft, and we had a hell of a lot of darts to throw on day 2 and it feels like we nailed all of them, which is rarely the case. the ravens can hype their guys all they want but i had madubuike and harrison in my top 40, not that my board matters, but when i see where we got these guys im kind of shocked, and then getting a guy like dobbins who could genuinely be one of the faces of the position leaguewide for the next however many years also on day 2, it really is insane value, no matter how mathematical you wanna make it.

 

[rossihunter2]

I feel like Eric decosta had to have just been shocked as all hell when the ravens were on the clock for almost every day 2 pick. Like Holy shit dobbins this late? Madubuike this late? Harrison this late? I was VERY big on Malik Harrison, I wouldn’t be surprised if he turned out the better LB from this ravens class, and when I see his camp looks, hear the reports, and go back and watch again, I can’t believe he was available when he was, he’s a top half of round 2 prospect at worst, if Seattle took Malik Harrison instead of jordyn Brooks I would’ve been like damn that’s really not a bad pick. Like I can’t fathom how the nfl let this guy fall so far that we took him on day 2, but not before taking dobbins madubuike and duvernay. Eric had to have been twitching at the thought of not taking Harrison for the first 2 picks in round 3.

you can tell these guys were high on our board because they all came at positions where we didn't have a need apart from Queen who was probably also BPA anyway

but Dobbins was brought in when we were already pretty stacked at RB
Madubuike was brought in even though we just added 2 veteran starters at DL
Harrison was brought in even though we had picked Queen in round 1
Duvernay was probably taken at a fair spot but Harbs was pumped that we got him with all that track speed
Tyre Phillips was a taken at a fair spot but he was a guy that Harbs was a fan of

but you're right those first 3 picks on day 2 were clearly BPA picks by quite some distance just looking at the positions they play

Dobbins they had a 1st round grade on
Madubuike I had a 1st round grade on
Harrison I had as a top 70 player and top 5 ILB (top 3 if you take away Simmons and Zach Baun)

 

[JoeyFlex5]

you can tell these guys were high on our board because they all came at positions where we didn't have a need apart from Queen who was probably also BPA anyway

but Dobbins was brought in when we were already pretty stacked at RB
Madubuike was brought in even though we just added 2 veteran starters at DL
Harrison was brought in even though we had picked Queen in round 1
Duvernay was probably taken at a fair spot but Harbs was pumped that we got him with all that track speed
Tyre Phillips was a taken at a fair spot but he was a guy that Harbs was a fan of

but you're right those first 3 picks on day 2 were clearly BPA picks by quite some distance just looking at the positions they play

Dobbins they had a 1st round grade on
Madubuike I had a 1st round grade on
Harrison I had as a top 70 player and top 5 ILB (top 3 if you take away Simmons and Zach Baun)

I actually wasn’t that high on duvernay, I’m cool with where we got him because his potential is through the roof due to speed and hands and just powerful play, but I saw a lot of stiffness from him that I didn’t like. Him and Phillips felt like lesser values compared to those others because those guys all could’ve went in round 1 and I wouldn’t bat an eye.

 

[rossihunter2]

To be fair... I'm pretty sure every single year the Ravens talk about how much "value" they get at pretty much every spot they draft. They seemingly always say "yeah we got this guy in the 3rd and we had a 2nd round grade on him". And that's great and all, but like every other NFL team, we still hit like less than 50% on draft picks. Which means some of these guys that we think we "stole" in the draft won't amount to much.

Or, put it another way... 32 out of 32 NFL teams, every single year since the beginning of the draft, think they did great on draft day. All of them. You've never once heard somebody say "yeah we reached for everybody, didn't get anybody we liked, etc.".

The whole thing is just one big crap shoot. People mocked me in the past for telling them that quantity of draft picks was arguably more important than quality (i.e. position in the draft), and I still think that's true. They did a study like 5 years ago that evaluated like a 10 year sample of drafts, and the teams that had the most Pro Bowl players taken in the draft correlated highly with the teams who simply had the most (quantity) of draft picks. It had nothing to do with where you picked in the draft.

In a game of darts, where nobody is that good at it, the best chance you have of winning is to have the most darts to throw.

i feel like EDC has been far more honest about those sorts of things

they felt like they had to get a WR when they got Duvernay and he was the last one left on their board at the position with a day 2 grade so they made sure they picked him there

Phillips, Hortiz suggested might have been taken slightly earlier than he would have but Harbs loved him and with how well the rest of the draft had gone EDC felt like he could give Harbs that pick at the very end of round 3

and in terms of hitting on picks - that's partly why the ravens mostly dont worry about positions when they draft because they'd rather take the guy they think has a better chance of being a success than the guy who might fill a need at a position

but i agree with you (and so does EDC) that so much of the being good in the draft is maximising your picks and working out where the statistical best value is draft-wise (i think studies indicated that the 2nd round is the sweet spot of talent vs not expending high value picks) and EDC really doesn't like trading up and wants to maximise picks albeit if there's a guy they really like they'll go and get him like with Boykin

but what EDC said a lot this offseason is that trading up in the 1st round is fraught with risk and rarely worth it unless there's a slam-dunk type player falling

and look at the fact we've made 30 picks in the last 3 drafts - the 2018 class had 12 picks - 3 of whom are already pro bowlers and 2 more are starters...

 

[rossihunter2]

thats great and all but im not going off of what the ravens say, im going off of what i thought of these players prior to the draft, and we had a hell of a lot of darts to throw on day 2 and it feels like we nailed all of them, which is rarely the case. the ravens can hype their guys all they want but i had madubuike and harrison in my top 40, not that my board matters, but when i see where we got these guys im kind of shocked, and then getting a guy like dobbins who could genuinely be one of the faces of the position leaguewide for the next however many years also on day 2, it really is insane value, no matter how mathematical you wanna make it.

100% agree on those first 4 picks - i think duvernay and phillips may well have been slight reaches but they look like they might be paying off anyway (hard to say yet)

 

[rossihunter2]

I actually wasn’t that high on duvernay, I’m cool with where we got him because his potential is through the roof due to speed and hands and just powerful play, but I saw a lot of stiffness from him that I didn’t like. Him and Phillips felt like lesser values compared to those others because those guys all could’ve went in round 1 and I wouldn’t bat an eye.

harrison in round 1 feels far-fetched to me lol but your point is well made anyway

I had duvernay in the top 100 which would make him a late 3rd rounder and Phillips in the top 120 which would make him a 4th rounder on my board

so getting one in the 3rd round (towards the end) and the other at the end of the round isnt ridiculously a reach but there would definitely have been better value based off my board

but the ravens were quite frank talking about duvernay being the last remaining WR on their board with a day 2 grade which i fully get - he's got blazing speed and can be a zone buster and a threat with the ball in his hands but he's not a naunced route-runner against man and there's almost no tape of him against press which is why he projects early in his career best as a slot/gadget offensive weapon type player who we scheme touches for which is fine by me

and phillips is similarly physically impressive with tons of traits to work with but not a slam-dunk

 

[BloodRaven]

I was lukewarn on Malik Harrison before the draft, I loved the contact but he looked lost in zone and man coverage.. but those are among Queens strengths and makes them a perfect compliment for one another.

If we were talking Harrison without Queen then I would still be lukewarm, that said his processing did improve over time so he should ascend.

 

[BloodRaven]

Also I was pretty happy to hear about Philips asserting himself this early into his career, he was the pick I was most concerned about but seems to be improving quickly which is what we need from our young oline.

 

[cdp]

i feel like EDC has been far more honest about those sorts of things

they felt like they had to get a WR when they got Duvernay and he was the last one left on their board at the position with a day 2 grade so they made sure they picked him there

Phillips, Hortiz suggested might have been taken slightly earlier than he would have but Harbs loved him and with how well the rest of the draft had gone EDC felt like he could give Harbs that pick at the very end of round 3

and in terms of hitting on picks - that's partly why the ravens mostly dont worry about positions when they draft because they'd rather take the guy they think has a better chance of being a success than the guy who might fill a need at a position

but i agree with you (and so does EDC) that so much of the being good in the draft is maximising your picks and working out where the statistical best value is draft-wise (i think studies indicated that the 2nd round is the sweet spot of talent vs not expending high value picks) and EDC really doesn't like trading up and wants to maximise picks albeit if there's a guy they really like they'll go and get him like with Boykin

but what EDC said a lot this offseason is that trading up in the 1st round is fraught with risk and rarely worth it unless there's a slam-dunk type player falling

and look at the fact we've made 30 picks in the last 3 drafts - the 2018 class had 12 picks - 3 of whom are already pro bowlers and 2 more are starters...

Thats true you get the most value in the 2nd round.
I can see why Harrison fell. I spent almost all of time on linebackers and this year's draft showed once again that teams value coverage ability (unless your GM is Schneider) because it's a good indicator whether your skills translate to the NFL. Harrison wasn't asked to do much coverage wise and he didn't have the combine numbers to wow scouts.

 

[rossihunter2]

Thats true you get the most value in the 2nd round.
I can see why Harrison fell. I spent almost all of time on linebackers and this year's draft showed once again that teams value coverage ability (unless your GM is Schneider) because it's a good indicator whether your skills translate to the NFL. Harrison wasn't asked to do much coverage wise and he didn't have the combine numbers to wow scouts.

you dont get drafted in the 1st round at LB anymore unless you're fast and bursty - there were only 4 guys like that - Murray, Queen and Brooks and that's why all 3 of them got taken in the 1st round and the other was Willie Gay who had myriad off the field stuff but despite all that still got taken in the 2nd round

 

[JoeyFlex5]

harrison in round 1 feels far-fetched to me lol but your point is well made anyway

I had duvernay in the top 100 which would make him a late 3rd rounder and Phillips in the top 120 which would make him a 4th rounder on my board

so getting one in the 3rd round (towards the end) and the other at the end of the round isnt ridiculously a reach but there would definitely have been better value based off my board

but the ravens were quite frank talking about duvernay being the last remaining WR on their board with a day 2 grade which i fully get - he's got blazing speed and can be a zone buster and a threat with the ball in his hands but he's not a naunced route-runner against man and there's almost no tape of him against press which is why he projects early in his career best as a slot/gadget offensive weapon type player who we scheme touches for which is fine by me

and phillips is similarly physically impressive with tons of traits to work with but not a slam-dunk

i wouldnt have taken harrison in 1, but if he went in 1 i wouldnt have a problem, i admit i was probably higher on harrison than most, because he was a real deal thumper type but i could see how underrated his movement was, he had the reputation of being a downhill type but i saw a much more fluid and athletic LB than he ever seemed to get credit for.

none of the reports about him coming out of camp are the least bit surprising to me. and with harrison its not just reports either, were seeing A LOT of "plays" being made by him in these montage videos. i cant remember a single play by queen showing up in these videos, for reference.

the one thing i was ever concerned about with harrison was how he flows when the play was behind him, he doesnt seem to pick up the keys from the qb the same way a patrick queen did, but when the play was in front of him he reads keys and executes accordingly as well as anyone in the class did. im looking forward to see how he progresses in the NFL with blitzing and man covering TEs, i think hes got the ability to do fairly well there even though those werent huge aspects of his college game.

 

[rossihunter2]

i wouldnt have taken harrison in 1, but if he went in 1 i wouldnt have a problem, i admit i was probably higher on harrison than most, because he was a real deal thumper type but i could see how underrated his movement was, he had the reputation of being a downhill type but i saw a much more fluid and athletic LB than he ever seemed to get credit for.

none of the reports about him coming out of camp are the least bit surprising to me. and with harrison its not just reports either, were seeing A LOT of "plays" being made by him in these montage videos. i cant remember a single play by queen showing up in these videos, for reference.

the one thing i was ever concerned about with harrison was how he flows when the play was behind him, he doesnt seem to pick up the keys from the qb the same way a patrick queen did, but when the play was in front of him he reads keys and executes accordingly as well as anyone in the class did. im looking forward to see how he progresses in the NFL with blitzing and man covering TEs, i think hes got the ability to do fairly well there even though those werent huge aspects of his college game.

he also has nice length which means in those zones he can make up for any lack of speed with that extra length - helped him snag an INT in senior bowl practices

been an underrated mover - but he's probably never going to be a great man-covering LB but he could be really useful in a zone

 

[Simba]

he also has nice length which means in those zones he can make up for any lack of speed with that extra length - helped him snag an INT in senior bowl practices

been an underrated mover - but he's probably never going to be a great man-covering LB but he could be really useful in a zone

Wouldn't be completely shocked if Harrison finds himself playing as an OLB on occasion. Obviously not as a full time player, but I'd think we could utilize his skills out there at times as well. Kind of like an Albert McClellan in a way but hopefully a lot better.

 

[Deebo813]

Thats true you get the most value in the 2nd round.
I can see why Harrison fell. I spent almost all of time on linebackers and this year's draft showed once again that teams value coverage ability (unless your GM is Schneider) because it's a good indicator whether your skills translate to the NFL. Harrison wasn't asked to do much coverage wise and he didn't have the combine numbers to wow scouts.

How you like that guy bengals drafted? I started following him closer to draft. Thought he would be a decent 5th rnd pick for us