No problem bud. Merry Christmas.
-
Welcome to PurpleFlock! Be sure to sign up here so that you can chat with your fellow Ravens fans.
Playoff Picture
- Thread starter purplepittabread88
- Start date
Merry Christmas to you too
NaturalBornHitters
Veteran
Bills and Titans both lost, just gotta win next week
Tank
Hall of Famer
Right. Win and we are the 5th seed. We can lose and if either Bills or Titans lose we are in as 6th seed. If all 3 lose we are the 5th seed.
Just win baby!
http://www.espn.com/blog/baltimore-...e-ways-ravens-can-reach-postseason-in-week-17
Inqui
Pro Bowler
I've been going over the tiebreaks with the 8-7 teams (Titans, Bills and Chargers).
If we beat the Bengals:
We're in at the #5 seed. Easy.
If we lose and the Titans win, and the Chargers and Bills lose (us and the Titans at 9-7, Bills and Chargers at 8-8):
The Titans hold the tiebreak over us (head-to-head), so they'd take the #5 seed and we'd move to #6.
If we lose and the Chargers win, and the Titans and Bills lose (us and the Chargers are 9-7, Titans and Bills at 8-8):
We'd hold the tiebreak due to conference record so we'd take the #5 seed and they'd take #6. (We'd have a 7-5 conference record vs their 6-6)
If we lose and the Bills win, and the Chargers and Titans lose (us and the Bills at 9-7, Titans and Chargers at 8-8):
We'd be tied on conference record (both 7-5) and common opponents (4-1), but the Bills have us beat on strength of victory. The Bills take the #5 seed and we take #6.
If we lose and the Titans and Chargers win, and Bills lose (us and the Titans and Chargers at 9-7, Bills at 8-8):
The Titans take the #5 seed with a better conference record (8-4), and the two-way tie kicks in with the Chargers, so we'd take #6.
If we lose and the Titans and Bills win, and Chargers lose (we're at 9-7 with the Titans and Bills, Chargers at 8-8):
The Titans take the #5 seed with a better conference record, and the Bills take #6 over us.
If we lose and the Chargers and Bills win, and Titans lose (we're at 9-7 with the Chargers and Bills, Titans at 8-8):
This is where things start to look a little grim. Conference record wouldn't apply and there haven't been enough common opponents, so it goes to strength of victory (the combined record of every team you've beaten). I've run the numbers, and the Bills are at 0.38 and the Chargers are at 0.32, while having played the Browns twice bites us in the ass with our 0.29. Bills take the #5 seed and we go to the two-way tie with the Chargers, which we win to take #6.
(As a note on the strength of victory, obviously teams have played 15 games to date so that's subject to change next week. I've assumed the Browns and Giants lose next week and the Texans lose tomorrow, but stuff like the Packers and Bucs are all balls in the air that I can't be bothered running every combination for, so the SoVs are based on some opponents having played 15 games and some are based on 16. That could change things but I don't think it'll change much and really our best hope is that the Bills and Chargers tie their SoV and probably strength of schedule too because that hasn't been much to write home about for us either)
If we lose to the Bengals and the Titans, Chargers and Bills all win (all sides on 9-7):
There'd be a four-way tie and the Titans would take #5 due to their conference record (being the best out of all four), so the process starts again with the three-way tie for the #6 seed. In which case the Bills sneak in over us due to their higher SoV.
Almost as clear as the catch rule.
If we beat the Bengals:
We're in at the #5 seed. Easy.
If we lose and the Titans win, and the Chargers and Bills lose (us and the Titans at 9-7, Bills and Chargers at 8-8):
The Titans hold the tiebreak over us (head-to-head), so they'd take the #5 seed and we'd move to #6.
If we lose and the Chargers win, and the Titans and Bills lose (us and the Chargers are 9-7, Titans and Bills at 8-8):
We'd hold the tiebreak due to conference record so we'd take the #5 seed and they'd take #6. (We'd have a 7-5 conference record vs their 6-6)
If we lose and the Bills win, and the Chargers and Titans lose (us and the Bills at 9-7, Titans and Chargers at 8-8):
We'd be tied on conference record (both 7-5) and common opponents (4-1), but the Bills have us beat on strength of victory. The Bills take the #5 seed and we take #6.
If we lose and the Titans and Chargers win, and Bills lose (us and the Titans and Chargers at 9-7, Bills at 8-8):
The Titans take the #5 seed with a better conference record (8-4), and the two-way tie kicks in with the Chargers, so we'd take #6.
If we lose and the Titans and Bills win, and Chargers lose (we're at 9-7 with the Titans and Bills, Chargers at 8-8):
The Titans take the #5 seed with a better conference record, and the Bills take #6 over us.
If we lose and the Chargers and Bills win, and Titans lose (we're at 9-7 with the Chargers and Bills, Titans at 8-8):
This is where things start to look a little grim. Conference record wouldn't apply and there haven't been enough common opponents, so it goes to strength of victory (the combined record of every team you've beaten). I've run the numbers, and the Bills are at 0.38 and the Chargers are at 0.32, while having played the Browns twice bites us in the ass with our 0.29. Bills take the #5 seed and we go to the two-way tie with the Chargers, which we win to take #6.
(As a note on the strength of victory, obviously teams have played 15 games to date so that's subject to change next week. I've assumed the Browns and Giants lose next week and the Texans lose tomorrow, but stuff like the Packers and Bucs are all balls in the air that I can't be bothered running every combination for, so the SoVs are based on some opponents having played 15 games and some are based on 16. That could change things but I don't think it'll change much and really our best hope is that the Bills and Chargers tie their SoV and probably strength of schedule too because that hasn't been much to write home about for us either)
If we lose to the Bengals and the Titans, Chargers and Bills all win (all sides on 9-7):
There'd be a four-way tie and the Titans would take #5 due to their conference record (being the best out of all four), so the process starts again with the three-way tie for the #6 seed. In which case the Bills sneak in over us due to their higher SoV.
Almost as clear as the catch rule.
Last edited:
Willbacker
Ravens Ring of Honor
I've been going over the tiebreaks with the 8-7 teams (Titans, Bills and Chargers).
If we beat the Bengals:
We're in at the #5 seed. Easy.
If we lose to the Bengals and the Titans win and the Chargers lose and Bills lose:
The Titans hold the tiebreak over us (head-to-head), so they'd take the #5 seed and we'd move to #6.
If we lose to the Bengals and the Chargers win and the Titans lose and Bills lose:
We'd hold the tiebreak due to conference record so we'd take the #5 seed and they'd take #6. (We'd have a 7-5 conference record vs their 6-6)
If we lose to the Bengals and the Bills win and the Chargers lose and Titans lose:
We'd be tied on conference record (both 7-5) but we'd take the #5 seed and they'd get #6 due to a better record against teams in common. They'd have swept the Dolphins and beaten the Colts but lost to the Bengals and Raiders, while we'd have beaten the Raiders, Colts and Dolphins and split with the Bengals.
If we lose to the Bengals and the Titans and Chargers win and Bills lose:
The Titans take the #5 seed with a better conference record (8-4), and the two-way tie kicks in with the Chargers, so we'd take #6.
If we lose to the Bengals and the Titans and Bills win and Chargers lose:
The Titans take the #5 seed with a better conference record, and we'd take #6 over the Bills.
If we lose to the Bengals and the Chargers and Bills win and Titans lose:
This is where things start to look a little grim. Conference record wouldn't apply and there haven't been enough common opponents, so it goes to strength of victory (the combined record of every team you've beaten). I've run the numbers, and the Bills are at 0.38 and the Chargers are at 0.32, while having played the Browns twice bites us in the ass with our 0.29. Bills take the #5 seed and we go to the two-way tie with the Chargers, which we win to take #6.
(As a note on the strength of victory, obviously teams have played 15 games to date so that's subject to change next week. I've assumed the Browns and Giants lose next week and the Texans lose tomorrow, but stuff like the Packers and Bucs are all balls in the air that I can't be bothered running every combination for, so the SoVs are based on some opponents having played 15 games and some are based on 16. That could change things but I don't think it'll change much and really our best hope is that the Bills and Chargers tie their SoV and probably strength of schedule too because that hasn't been much to write home about for us either)
If we lose to the Bengals and the Titans, Chargers and Bills all win:
There'd be a four-way tie and the Titans would take #5 due to their conference record (being the best out of all four), so the process starts again with the three-way tie for the #6 seed. In which case the Bills sneak in over us due to their higher SoV.
Almost as clear as the catch rule.
No catch rule is easy. You either catch it or you don't.
Nice breakdown tho. Its looking good for us.
Ellicottraven
Ravens Ring of Honor
Thanks man! You saved a lot of research for me because I wasn't sure of all the implications quite yet.I've been going over the tiebreaks with the 8-7 teams (Titans, Bills and Chargers).
If we beat the Bengals:
We're in at the #5 seed. Easy.
If we lose to the Bengals and the Titans win and the Chargers lose and Bills lose:
The Titans hold the tiebreak over us (head-to-head), so they'd take the #5 seed and we'd move to #6.
If we lose to the Bengals and the Chargers win and the Titans lose and Bills lose:
We'd hold the tiebreak due to conference record so we'd take the #5 seed and they'd take #6. (We'd have a 7-5 conference record vs their 6-6)
If we lose to the Bengals and the Bills win and the Chargers lose and Titans lose:
We'd be tied on conference record (both 7-5) but we'd take the #5 seed and they'd get #6 due to a better record against teams in common. They'd have swept the Dolphins and beaten the Colts but lost to the Bengals and Raiders, while we'd have beaten the Raiders, Colts and Dolphins and split with the Bengals.
If we lose to the Bengals and the Titans and Chargers win and Bills lose:
The Titans take the #5 seed with a better conference record (8-4), and the two-way tie kicks in with the Chargers, so we'd take #6.
If we lose to the Bengals and the Titans and Bills win and Chargers lose:
The Titans take the #5 seed with a better conference record, and we'd take #6 over the Bills.
If we lose to the Bengals and the Chargers and Bills win and Titans lose:
This is where things start to look a little grim. Conference record wouldn't apply and there haven't been enough common opponents, so it goes to strength of victory (the combined record of every team you've beaten). I've run the numbers, and the Bills are at 0.38 and the Chargers are at 0.32, while having played the Browns twice bites us in the ass with our 0.29. Bills take the #5 seed and we go to the two-way tie with the Chargers, which we win to take #6.
(As a note on the strength of victory, obviously teams have played 15 games to date so that's subject to change next week. I've assumed the Browns and Giants lose next week and the Texans lose tomorrow, but stuff like the Packers and Bucs are all balls in the air that I can't be bothered running every combination for, so the SoVs are based on some opponents having played 15 games and some are based on 16. That could change things but I don't think it'll change much and really our best hope is that the Bills and Chargers tie their SoV and probably strength of schedule too because that hasn't been much to write home about for us either)
If we lose to the Bengals and the Titans, Chargers and Bills all win:
There'd be a four-way tie and the Titans would take #5 due to their conference record (being the best out of all four), so the process starts again with the three-way tie for the #6 seed. In which case the Bills sneak in over us due to their higher SoV.
Almost as clear as the catch rule.
K-Dog
MVP
If Buffalo just makes it in a lot of fans will be extatic.
RavensFan419
Pro Bowler
So from what I’m picking up if the bills lose we are in no matter what teams win or lose which is nice but the dolphins don’t really put hope into me lol
Yep if bills lose we beat them via common games no matter what we do - chargers I think we beat in conference record so I’m not worried about the chargers - so yeah if we lose and the bills also fall I think the worst outcome is the 6th seed but I’m not 100%
Pats
Veteran
They have the biggest drought in playoff appearances of any nfl team atm im pretty sure. I hope to see them get a crack at jacksonville. Also regarding the chargers, fuck you spanos.
balfan23
MVP
I will admit - I'm not calculating the crazy tiebreakers ... once you get past conference games and then common games ... shit like strength of victory will require more effort than I'm willing to give. So - I'm simply going off of the ESPN playoff machine, which calculates that stuff for you.
Inqui said: "If we lose to the Bengals and the Titans and Bills win and Chargers lose: The Titans take the #5 seed with a better conference record, and we'd take #6 over the Bills."
"If we lose to the Bengals and the Chargers and Bills win and Titans lose: This is where things start to look a little grim... "
In the 1st scenario, the part about the Titans taking #5 is correct, but we end up tied with the Bills on conference record and common games. According to to the machine, we will lose to the Bills on strength of victory.
In the 2nd scenario, the Chargers are screwed because of their conference record ... As in the above, Bills beat us on strength of victory, then we get the #6 over LAC based on conference record.
So ... (Like Tank said earlier ...) it is relatively simple. We're in if:
1) we win (or tie), 2) Bills lose (or tie) OR 3) Titans lose (or tie). If those two teams win and we lose, no other combination of anything will make a difference. ... we'll be out From what I can see, Chargers game mean nothing to us.
Inqui said: "If we lose to the Bengals and the Titans and Bills win and Chargers lose: The Titans take the #5 seed with a better conference record, and we'd take #6 over the Bills."
"If we lose to the Bengals and the Chargers and Bills win and Titans lose: This is where things start to look a little grim... "
In the 1st scenario, the part about the Titans taking #5 is correct, but we end up tied with the Bills on conference record and common games. According to to the machine, we will lose to the Bills on strength of victory.
In the 2nd scenario, the Chargers are screwed because of their conference record ... As in the above, Bills beat us on strength of victory, then we get the #6 over LAC based on conference record.
So ... (Like Tank said earlier ...) it is relatively simple. We're in if:
1) we win (or tie), 2) Bills lose (or tie) OR 3) Titans lose (or tie). If those two teams win and we lose, no other combination of anything will make a difference. ... we'll be out From what I can see, Chargers game mean nothing to us.
Last edited:
balfan23
MVP
That's correct ... same goes with the Titans ... if they lose were in no matter what else happens. That's why it will be unfortunate if the Jags rest players next week. There is no way for the Jags to alter their seed. Normally, teams in that position take week 17 as a bye week for many of their starters. Our only hope is that they want to erase the bad taste in their mouth from the SF loss or want to deep six their division rival, but the concern over getting key players hurt in a meaningless game may trump all else.
If the Steelers lose to the Texans today, the Jags still have hope at landing the 2 seed.
balfan23
MVP
Ah - true. I can't imagine why I was writing off the bye week for the Jags, with the Steelers only needing to beat either the Texans or the Browns LOL.
But still - you're right. If they Steelers were to lose today, the league would have to flex the Steelers Browns game to 4 PM and Jags will have to honor (the extremely slim) possibility that they are playing for a 2 seed.
Go Texans!
I also (hopeful) thought the Bengals were only a half game behind the Steelers at this point. Unfortunately I was wrong.
Not so sure the Jags are going to laying down for the titans next week. Here’s the scenario.
If the Titans win next week and we also win, the Titans are the 6 seed (assuming Steelers win one of two remaining games).
If the Titans are the 6 seed they will play the Jags again in week two, knowing the Titans have played them well.
If the Titans win next week and we also win, the Titans are the 6 seed (assuming Steelers win one of two remaining games).
If the Titans are the 6 seed they will play the Jags again in week two, knowing the Titans have played them well.