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Playoff Picture

It's a very good thing the Patriots are going to be scratching for that bye or to hold on to the home field in week 16. Motivation is everything this time of year.

The Ravens have multiple paths to make it in, but they have 4 huge stumbling blocks (and a couple of smaller ones).

1) They can't end up tied with KC at 9-7 unless KC loses to Miami
2) They can't end up tied with both Jax and Buffalo at 10-6 is Jax's only win is against SF
3) If they end up tied with Buffalo for the last spot, they need 2 of 4 common opponent games to go their way, which can only be a problem at 9-7, not 10-6
4) Any tiebreaker involving SoV will mean they are out, so they can't have multi-way ties where ties are not resolved by 1 of the first 3 TBs

I worked through the scenarios here, but I'll be the first to admit the chance is pretty damn good I messed something up, because it's complicated. I'd appreciate it if some of the folks here would review and let me know what I missed.
https://russellstreetreport.com/2017/12/12/filmstudy/afc-wild-card-picture-ravens-bills-chiefs/

In your article you have Jacksonville at 8-5 and Tennessee at 9-4. The Jaguars are winning the division.

Right. Records are flipped.
 
It's a very good thing the Patriots are going to be scratching for that bye or to hold on to the home field in week 16. Motivation is everything this time of year.

The Ravens have multiple paths to make it in, but they have 4 huge stumbling blocks (and a couple of smaller ones).

1) They can't end up tied with KC at 9-7 unless KC loses to Miami
2) They can't end up tied with both Jax and Buffalo at 10-6 is Jax's only win is against SF
3) If they end up tied with Buffalo for the last spot, they need 2 of 4 common opponent games to go their way, which can only be a problem at 9-7, not 10-6
4) Any tiebreaker involving SoV will mean they are out, so they can't have multi-way ties where ties are not resolved by 1 of the first 3 TBs

I worked through the scenarios here, but I'll be the first to admit the chance is pretty damn good I messed something up, because it's complicated. I'd appreciate it if some of the folks here would review and let me know what I missed.
https://russellstreetreport.com/2017/12/12/filmstudy/afc-wild-card-picture-ravens-bills-chiefs/

That sounds right although I wasn’t aware the chiefs would own the 2-way tiebreaker over us... what’s the nature of that tie breaker?
 
Given LAC has such a bad conference record, we're definitely rooting for KC this weekend. KC poses more issues in tiebreakers

At this point, we would prefer for JAX to run away with the division and have Titans tank

Buffalo is the biggest problem. I knew I wanted Indy to beat them last week (which they did ... until the refs took the win away) .... but I didn't realize just how much our chances would have improved had Buffalo dropped that game.
Although I think the Chargers beat KC this weekend, I want KC to win due. It provides better access for us to get to the wild card if we finish 9-7. The advantage is the game is in Kansas City and that’s a tough place to play.
No doubt ... Given LAC has such a bad conference record, we're definitely rooting for KC this weekend. KC poses more issues in tiebreakers. LAC has virtually no chance of getting in via WC. They have to win the division.
 
As for the AFC South ... I'm not really focused on JAX ... At this point, I think they run away with the division. Hoping that the Titans tank.

Who knows ... SF is suddently playing decent football and have a home game this week vs Titans. If they could pull an upset - Titans finish with Rams and JAX. If they drop those (which isn't hard to imagine) the Titans will be out of the picture.
 
Serious question who are you rooting for in the Pats-Steelers game? I know we are all hoping for a black hole to swallow the teams, but I don’t think that is realistic.
 
Buffalo is the biggest problem. I knew I wanted Indy to beat them last week (which they did ... until the refs took the win away) .... but I didn't realize just how much our chances would have improved had Buffalo dropped that game.

Many seem to be taking solace in the fact that they seem guaranteed to lose in Foxboro, since NE has a lot to play for. But that doesn't help us if we go 9-7 and our loss is to either Indy or Bengals.

The reason is, the Bills played, and beat, Indy and Bengals. If we beat them, we win on common games. If we lose either, we go to the next tie break and lose based on strength of victory.

Based on this - and other scenarios - losing to the Browns will be far less damaging than losing either of those final 2. Not that I'm viewing this game as expendable (since we DO still seem to control our own destiny, despite some of the comments I've seen). Those last 2 games will likely be must wins to make it.
 
Serious question who are you rooting for in the Pats-Steelers game? I know we are all hoping for a black hole to swallow the teams, but I don’t think that is realistic.
I don't think the outcome is critical to our playoff chances ... We need NE to be heavily motivated when they play Buffalo, but they will be no matter what happens. They'll either be playing to maintain the #1 seed (if they win) or fighting to get a bye week (if they lose).

I suppose if you are eager to see us face NE in the opening round (which many seem to be), then root for NE to lose and for JAX to win out. But again, bottom line this game has virtually nothing to do with our chances of getting in.
 
Serious question who are you rooting for in the Pats-Steelers game? I know we are all hoping for a black hole to swallow the teams, but I don’t think that is realistic.
Choking saying this but go squealers. I could never root for the cheatriots to win anything.
 
Serious question who are you rooting for in the Pats-Steelers game? I know we are all hoping for a black hole to swallow the teams, but I don’t think that is realistic.

Unless I am mistaken, if the Pats lose to pitts-burgh that could potentially set it up for us to play the Pats in the wild card game. I believe we can beat the Pats.
 
Unless I am mistaken, if the Pats lose to pitts-burgh that could potentially set it up for us to play the Pats in the wild card game. I believe we can beat the Pats.

What makes you think that?
 
Nah.. The Patriots...

Harbaugh's injury powers are only rivaled by those evil cheating powers of Darth Hoodie.

Of all the playoff potential teams the 3 worst match ups for me are Jags, Steelers and Chargers/Chiefs. Patriots don't worry me that much. Personnel wise, we can double Gronk and man up Cooks. Get them in the 3rd and long, and Brady won't make plays like Ben. Injuries have taken their toll on that wr corps. Titans don't worry me either. Would love to see the Patriots having to deal with playing a full set up playoff games without a bye and home field.
 
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