Lamar Jackson

[rossihunter2]

I gotta be honest... I really hope Lamar isn't that stupid.

IF the injury guarantee kicks in when 2024 league year starts, then he's a total fool for not considering that.

So lets say Lamar breaks his leg in 2023 and never plays again. In that scenario, he still gets $133M over three years.

If he doesn't sign the deal, and still breaks his leg in 2023 and never plays again, how much does he get in 2024 and 2025? Not a fucking thing.

Wake up.

it is a little silly because if he breaks his leg or has something crazy happen, he's gonna try to rehab it and that's going to have him on the roster in 2024 when the injury guarantees happen... so even if that's the last he plays - he's still likely going to have to the injury guarantees come into play

 

[rossihunter2]

Isnt that what dude said on here that he heard from EDCs nephew?

nah he said 51m/yr 3 years fully guaranteed
bigger than this one...

but i guess maybe schefter's behind on the details lol... (maybe this was the next offer that's not public yet idk haha)

 

[rossihunter2]

So what's his problem? 3 years is not enough? That AAV is not enough?

Like would he sign a 3 year 150M guaranteed?

im guessing it's the aav on that basis - if it's 133m fully guaranteed and that's it then all that does is guarantee he'll be underpaid for 3 years

but idk if it's only 3 years he's talking about - but he's talking about 3 years because that's when almost all the fully guaranteed money in most contracts is and therefore the number that most players will care about

based on what little we know of the negotiations - if this deal and the schefter deal are the same deal... it does seem like lamar's not actually looking for 5 years fully guaranteed - just a bigger fully guaranteed number than 133

if this was a different new deal then im guessing it's aav that would be a problem...

 

[Simba]

Not going to pretend I know exactly how negotiations are going, but it's wild that we're seemingly stuck on this $133M number - regardless of that being the full value or just the fully guaranteed portion. Just a weird number that I'm starting to hate.

 

[ravenslord]

Obviously you think that. I don't know that this is evidence of bad blood exactly, more that Lamar randomly gets upset at people talking about him online.

I have to admit I don't like this tweet though. Everything seemed to lining up for Lamar to re-sign in Baltimore, with only the Colts lingering as an ominous threat. I still think that's a strong possibility but I'm a bit less confident with Lamar sending out irritable tweets. It doesn't seem like he's too happy with the way things are going.

I’m not the only one when you hear reports about the negotiations being “incredibly messy” , etc . Don’t be surprised if Lamar eventually demands a trade.

 

[rossihunter2]

Not going to pretend I know exactly how negotiations are going, but it's wild that we're seemingly stuck on this $133M number - regardless of that being the full value or just the fully guaranteed portion. Just a weird number that I'm starting to hate.

i dont understand what's so special about 133...
and it seems to have been the same number for over 6 months now too which is so bizarre

 

[QtR Nevermore]

Lamar seems to be looking for a simple fully guaranteed amount as his bottom line. Maybe $200 M? Or $231M?

If the Ravens are willing to go to $200M in easily obtainable guarantees, is it just a point of principle that prevents them guaranteeing the same amount? Would it really be such a bad idea for the Ravens to take advantage of the simplicity of his demand, make $200M fully guaranteed and then secretly 'win' the negotiations by getting what they want in the rest of the contract language, in the name of compromise. (Maybe he ability to add years? Or trade him? Whatever.)

$40 M or even $46 M isn't going to look at all expensive for a good QB in a couple of years anyway, especially if many other aspects of the contract are in the team's favor.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Ok can you explain the 175 and 200 numbers from Scheffters tweet? Doesn't the presence of those number imply more years after 3?

So the $175M piece I read meant that if Lamar is on the roster as of the 3rd league day of 2024, he gets $42M in injury guarantees for year 4. Meaning he'll get that $ gtd if he's injured.

 

[rossihunter2]

So the $175M piece I read meant that if Lamar is on the roster as of the 3rd league day of 2024, he gets $42M in injury guarantees for year 4. Meaning he'll get that $ gtd if he's injured.

the 200 includes i think a roster bonus for later in the contract - think it's something like a hypothetical 2026 roster bonus that would guarantee in 2025

 

[Simba]

i dont understand what's so special about 133...
and it seems to have been the same number for over 6 months now too which is so bizarre

To be clear here, just going off the "info" we have...

But it seems concerning if that number hasn't moved at all. I feel like that number is the ultimate hold up if all of this is true.

 

[Deebo813]

I mean can you blame the FO though he hasn't finished 2 yrs in a row and still offered him a fair deal. No matter what he gets 133m and jumps up to 175m in 2024 for injury . His ass is being unreasonable not the FO.

Def cant blame them..

 

[rmcjacket23]

Lamar seems to be looking for a simple fully guaranteed amount as his bottom line. Maybe $200 M? Or $231M?

If the Ravens are willing to go to $200M in easily obtainable guarantees, is it just a point of principle that prevents them guaranteeing the same amount? Would it really be such a bad idea for the Ravens to take advantage of the simplicity of his demand, make $200M fully guaranteed and then secretly 'win' the negotiations by getting what they want in the rest of the contract language, in the name of compromise. (Maybe he ability to add years? Or trade him? Whatever.)

$40 M or even $46 M isn't going to look at all expensive for a good QB in a couple of years anyway, especially if many other aspects of the contract are in the team's favor.

I'll preface this by saying that, if I'm the Ravens, I'm not doing jack shit right now but waiting for Lamar to bring me an offer sheet. Because I don't think any offer sheet he gets is going to come close to meeting what he wants right now. But anyway...

"Easily obtainable guarantees", for Lamar, isn't a thing. It's guaranteed at signing, and then fluff. That's what I'm taking away from these discussions. You and I may view these guarantees as extremely likely to be achieved, but I think he doesn't.

So then the question becomes... would the Ravens give him $200M gtd at signing on a deal? And I'd guess the answer is no UNLESS somebody else does and shows that's at least some semblance of what a market looks like.

At this point there's really no reason for the Ravens to go to that level. The gap between Watson and Wilson in terms of gtd $ at signing is like $100M. I don't think the Ravens need to come up $70M for that. If we start talking $150-160M gtd at signing, then I'll be the guy that definitively says "Lamar, you're a moron for not taking this deal". It's significantly higher than anybody else not named Watson.

 

[BoredMarine13]

dont understand why 133m seems to be the ravens redline in terms of fully guaranteed money when in reality they're offering basically 175m fully guaranteed (only way he doesnt get that extra 42m is if he retires before 2024 as far as im aware)

there has to be some cap implications for gtd signing vs injury.

 

[rossihunter2]

To be clear here, just going off the "info" we have...

But it seems concerning if that number hasn't moved at all. I feel like that number is the ultimate hold up if all of this is true.

if it is, just seems like such a bizarre hill to die on

 

[rossihunter2]

there has to be some cap implications for gtd signing vs injury.

some cap flexibility maybe depending on how you structure it

think it may be more about money in escrow if i had to guess

 

[BoredMarine13]

some cap flexibility maybe depending on how you structure it

think it may be more about money in escrow if i had to guess

Ahhh that does makes sense with escrow. I was trying to figure out why they wouldn’t just offer 175 at signing

 

[rmcjacket23]

there has to be some cap implications for gtd signing vs injury.

I don't think it has cap implications until it becomes "guaranteed". So if he got injured, and they tried to cut him, the dead money goes up. If he's not injured, the dead money stays the same.

 

[BoredMarine13]

I don't think it has cap implications until it becomes "guaranteed". So if he got injured, and they tried to cut him, the dead money goes up. If he's not injured, the dead money stays the same.

Yea that’s why I was trying to figure out why they were stuck on 133, why not up it to 175 since those are the practical guarantees. But it sounds like there are cap and possibly escrow problems with that

 

[BoredMarine13]

My best guess is Lamar thought he was locked in at the exclusive tag making nearly 50 mil. Possible second tag next year or a trade, both situations he is making a ton of money in a two year period.

Now he is pissed and confused that he is looking at the non exclusive and far less

 

[ravenslord]

Lamar’s face during the negotiations: