The 2023 Offseason Thread

[JoeyFlex5]

I mean maybe. When is he going to get the ball though and when is he going to be running routes? He played 40% of offensive snaps last year, with a non-existent WR room and a banged up Andrews for several weeks. And in an offense that Roman utilized a lot of multi-TE looks.

If we're going to be running a lot more 3 WR sets, which I think everybody expects we will, that means a lot more one or even zero TE sets.

Assuming normalized health, I think Likely is the kind of guy who gets 1-2 target a week or something similar to that. Just don't see how the volume or personnel groupings benefit him, given the influx of WRs. Maybe against specific teams/matchups they go for exploitation, but I don't see him having significant presence in the offense consistently week-to-week.

Well I’ve already touched on that, he won’t have the volume but will make the plays when called upon. He looks like a crazy good last ditch option.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Very few teams with a running QB don't have good running games, so I'm not too worried. (Part of my frustration with Roman's heavy investment in the run in personnel, scheme and practice time was that 80% of the yards would have been there anyway, without all that). Defenses will never be able to go full on ''invite the run to shut down the pass" as long as we've got Lamar at QB and they'll still have some of the Roman 22 personnel stuff available for must run situations.

I'm looking forward to seeing how an increased threat from the passing game opens up run opportunities. I've always wanted to see Lamar run out of formations that spread defenses out rather than condense them down, so I think he'll quite possibly have his highest career yardage per carry

Just don’t agree with the 80% thing. Say what you want about him, but Roman’s run/blocking schemes were at times genius and often confused the hell out of opposing defenses.

The threat of a formidable passing game could very well open up run opportunities, but for that to happen LJ will need to take a couple of steps forward in his abilities to accurately and consistently make all the throws. Hopefully that’s how things shake out.

Yeah I'm not really buying the 80% thing either.
For starters, people can say whatever they want about when Lamar got hurt (in the pocket), etc., but running QBs that run the ball as much as Lamar does, don't last in this league. He won't be playing at 35 at this trajectory. He'll be lucky to be able to outrun literally anybody at 30 at this trajectory. Even Josh Allen is like "yeah, I can't run as much". And he's Lamar's age. It's not a question of IF he'll get hurt running it 10-12 times a game, but when. And if he's out, it really doesn't matter what the rest of our offense looks like.

Rushing yards aren't really meaningful at all. The 2021 Ravens were 3rd in the league in rushing yards, attempts, yards/game, and 5th in average. And nobody in the league was scared of our rush offense at all. It was completely putrid. People were literally happy to see us run designed run plays.
The baseline for our running game was "call a pass play and let Lamar or Huntley scramble for yardage". That's not a running game, nor is it useful in any way. And our 2021 offense showed that in its actual output.
You don't have a quality running game when a) over 40% of your rushing output comes from QBs and b) your RB room averages 4.2 YPC

Lamar is going to have less designed runs this year, I'd bet the Ravens as a team will run less this year, and Lamar's mobility will become a scheme/personnel dependent asset that will be used as part of gameplans to exploit weaknesses in defenses. I don't think it'll be a recurring, weekly part of a gameplan.

The questions I have for the running game in 2023 is a) are Dobbins and Edwards going to be fully recovered from injury and b) will they be efficient as runners and be effective at closing out games when we have the lead. I'm far less concerned about totality of yardage or volume. We could run for 30-40 yards a game less and be more effective easily.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Well I’ve already touched on that, he won’t have the volume but will make the plays when called upon. He looks like a crazy good last ditch option.

He looks like a guy that can step into a prominent role if Andrews gets hurt, but isn't a guy who's going to see a lot of usage otherwise.

 

[QtR Nevermore]

Just don’t agree with the 80% thing. Say what you want about him, but Roman’s run/blocking schemes were at times genius and often confused the hell out of opposing defenses.

The threat of a formidable passing game could very well open up run opportunities, but for that to happen LJ will need to take a couple of steps forward in his abilities to accurately and consistently make all the throws. Hopefully that’s how things shake out.

In crude yardage terms 80% of 2022's rushing yards would've been 12th in the NFL, between Detroit and Washington. In '21 it would've been 16th in the league. - I'd say that's achievable for a Lamar Jackson offense.

 

[QtR Nevermore]

I mean maybe. When is he going to get the ball though and when is he going to be running routes? He played 40% of offensive snaps last year, with a non-existent WR room and a banged up Andrews for several weeks. And in an offense that Roman utilized a lot of multi-TE looks.

If we're going to be running a lot more 3 WR sets, which I think everybody expects we will, that means a lot more one or even zero TE sets.

Assuming normalized health, I think Likely is the kind of guy who gets 1-2 target a week or something similar to that. Just don't see how the volume or personnel groupings benefit him, given the influx of WRs. Maybe against specific teams/matchups they go for exploitation, but I don't see him having significant presence in the offense consistently week-to-week.

You might be right, but, if one of the top 3 WRs goes down, I think that immediately makes Likely the 4th best option in the passing game. Bateman and Beckham both have extensive injury histories, so it's likely he'll see a fair number of targets over the season.

Also, Monken ran a lot of 2TE sets in Georgia.

 

[rmcjacket23]

You might be right, but, if one of the top 3 WRs goes down, I think that immediately makes Likely the 4th best option in the passing game. Bateman and Beckham both have extensive injury histories, so it's likely he'll see a fair number of targets over the season.

Also, Monken ran a lot of 2TE sets in Georgia.

Or maybe Agholor is the 4th option. Or Duvernay. Both have as much, if not more, on-field success than Likely does to this point. Likely's path to playing time I think resolves around the health of Andrews more than it does the health of other WRs. That's why you have depth at the WR position.

I know he ran a lot of 2 TE sets in Georgia. But that was Georgia, who didn't have much in the way of playmaking WRs.

Monken was also the OC in Cleveland in 2019, where the entire TE room caught 27 passes the whole year and effectively weren't involved in the passing game at all.
Then if you go back to '16-'18 when he was in Tampa:
2016: strong usage out of Cameron Brate, but nothing from other TEs
2017: maintained usage of Brate, but used very heavy 3-4 WR looks and OJ Howard only got 39 targets as the #2 TE.
2018: super pass-heavy offense, but even then he had Brate/Howard as the 5th/6th options in terms of target share and both were under 50 targets for the year.

So like 2018 was probably his most pass-heavy, TE usage year in the Pros, and he was still very WR dominant and the TE room was getting about 5-6 targets a week.

All that really tells us is that he's diverse, which we already knew. I just struggle to see our offense consistently running a lot of heavier two-TE sets while somebody like Bateman or Flowers plays lower snap counts (assuming full health).

I think Likely needs an Andrew injury or multiple, long-term injuries from the top 3 WRs in order to have even a moderate role in the offense.

 

[QtR Nevermore]

Or maybe Agholor is the 4th option. Or Duvernay. Both have as much, if not more, on-field success than Likely does to this point. Likely's path to playing time I think resolves around the health of Andrews more than it does the health of other WRs. That's why you have depth at the WR position.

I know he ran a lot of 2 TE sets in Georgia. But that was Georgia, who didn't have much in the way of playmaking WRs.

Monken was also the OC in Cleveland in 2019, where the entire TE room caught 27 passes the whole year and effectively weren't involved in the passing game at all.
Then if you go back to '16-'18 when he was in Tampa:
2016: strong usage out of Cameron Brate, but nothing from other TEs
2017: maintained usage of Brate, but used very heavy 3-4 WR looks and OJ Howard only got 39 targets as the #2 TE.
2018: super pass-heavy offense, but even then he had Brate/Howard as the 5th/6th options in terms of target share and both were under 50 targets for the year.

So like 2018 was probably his most pass-heavy, TE usage year in the Pros, and he was still very WR dominant and the TE room was getting about 5-6 targets a week.

All that really tells us is that he's diverse, which we already knew. I just struggle to see our offense consistently running a lot of heavier two-TE sets while somebody like Bateman or Flowers plays lower snap counts (assuming full health).

I think Likely needs an Andrew injury or multiple, long-term injuries from the top 3 WRs in order to have even a moderate role in the offense.

Monken has adapted to his roster and done a lot of different things in his time but Harbaugh is still the head coach. If he made Mornhinweg and Trestman more run heavy than they'd ever been, my guess is that we'll be seeing something closer to the 2 TE Georgia version than the chuck it deep Jameis version.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Monken has adapted to his roster and done a lot of different things in his time but Harbaugh is still the head coach. If he made Mornhinweg and Trestman more run heavy than they'd ever been, my guess is that we'll be seeing something closer to the 2 TE Georgia version than the chuck it deep Jameis version.

Umm... think you might want to go back and look at the Trestman/Marty timelines.
2015 - 676 pass attempts, 383 rush attempts. That's like a 64/36 pass:run ratio. That was the 2nd highest pass ratio in the NFL that year, and would have still been the second highest ratio in 2022 also.
2016 - we had the #1 pass ratio in the NFL, and by a comfortable margin. Almost 65% passing. And that's with both Trestman and Marty sharing duties, since Trestman was fired mid-season. We threw it 679 times.
2017 - we dropped down to a more normalized 55/45 split, which was a product of both Marty being a full-time play caller AND the fact that two years of being total shit offensively was a good enough indication that maybe we should be more balanced. We were still 11th in pass attempts.
2018 - Joe made 9 starts under Marty, and was on an identical pace in terms of pass attempts as the 2016 season. He averaged 42 attempts/game in the first 9 weeks, and we were competitive too.

I'm not going to go back and look at pre-Harbaugh era, but I'm highly confident that the '15-'18 timeline with Marty and Trestman is, by far, the most pass-heavy offense this franchise saw in the Harbaugh era, and very likely the entirety of the franchise. And that's with Billick running the show before him.

If we look anything like these numbers in 2023 in terms of passing volume, it'll be a failure on multiple fronts, and we'll lose a lot of games. You can't be in the 65% pass ratio range and be successful in this league for more than maybe a season, and even then its dicey. Even the KC's and Buffalo's of the world, who are viewed as pass-heavy, low production running games, have quite a bit more balance than that.

We'll throw it more no doubt. But we're not going from a 48% pass ratio to a 65% pass ratio, unless something went dreadfully wrong.

 

[RavensMania]

@rmcjacket23 I think a 55 to 57/45 to 43 split (pass/run) would be ideal.

 

[rmcjacket23]

@rmcjacket23 I think a 55 to 57/45 to 43 split (pass/run) would be ideal.

Agreed. At somewhere 60-65 offensive plays per game, I'd think Lamar being around 30-35 attempts per game makes sense.

Honestly I'd like at his 2021 yardage/completion %, which is 2022 TD/INT ratios as a good benchmark.

For a 17 game season:
65% comp pct
550 pass attempts
4,100 passing yards
28 TD passes
11 INTs

And then I think they'll scale back on his designed running in favor of more pass plays and possibly increased volume from the RB room.

 

[UPennChem]

Harbaugh said Johnson is competing for QB2

 

[UPennChem]

Lamar sees Bateman as WR1

 

[RaineV1]

If all 3 of our top WRs are healthy, along with Andrews…. I don’t see a lot of targets for him.

He could easily still put up like four hundred yards, and a couple touchdowns. Every good passing offense has a good depth guy that gets the occasional splash play since the other team is focused on the bigger named guys.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

Lamar sees Bateman as WR1

As he should. He’s the homegrown first round pick who’s Going into the second half of his rookie deal, and he’s talked some shit on Twitter this offseason, Lamar is clearly expecting wr1 shit from him and he’s gotta sink or swim. He better keep a cool head too because he’s got 2 guys who could very well be taking over wr1 by the end of the year, one a vet and one a first round rookie.

 

[allblackraven]

Watching Lamar's interview at OTAs, I got the felling he might be even happier than me about GRo being sacked.

 

[Davesta]

Hope this dude balls out this year and earns a second contract from us.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

Hope this dude balls out this year and earns a second contract from us.

He’s gonna go fucking bananas this year

 

[Deebo813]

………..nvm

 

[RavensMania]

@Edgar doing an in depth analysis in Monken's schemes. Please go and give him a like, he is one of our own.

 

[Militant X 1]

Lamar is going to have less designed runs this year, I'd bet the Ravens as a team will run less this year, and Lamar's mobility will become a scheme/personnel dependent asset that will be used as part of gameplans to exploit weaknesses in defenses. I don't think it'll be a recurring, weekly part of a gameplan.

I agree with all of this! Lamar only ran as much as he did under GRo cause that was GRo's playcalling that depended heavily on Lamar's running ability and skill. Lamar actually mentioned that Monken is giving him the "keys to the offense" in his presser today and that's completely different from GRo's system. Monken's "aerial" system should fit him well and allow him to only run as needed (i.e., as you mentioned above and if there are open lanes to do so, or if the pocket rapidly collapses to extend plays, etc.).

This is a new offensive scheme for the offense and Lamar, which he called, "Smooth" today at the presser. He knows that the Ravens need to pass the ball more to keep up with the other high-profile passing teams in the league (i.e., the Chiefs, Bills, Bengals, etc.). He's said that time and time again. GRo kept him bottled up and he did well with what he was allowed to do but under Monken, I am expecting him to be extremely freakish through the air. I can't wait!