The 2023 Offseason Thread

[BoredMarine13]

Not gonna lie, his hidden basement is every prepper’s dream.





Try being pro-2A in California

Yea his basement was amazing. I only have two bug out bags and a shit load of water. Need to up my game.

The gun laws in Cali are the reason I avoid orders there. I love San Diego , but I’m a felon if I bring all my gear with me.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Starting to feel like the franchise tag is unrealistic. We’d have to make some legitimate cuts to fit Lamar, rookies, and Zietler under the cap. Feels more and more like it’s a long term deal or a trade

So I think we can afford the tag and make some cuts/restructures. I think we will do more contract restructures than we would like, and I think either Campbell or Zeitler isn't back (either voluntarily or otherwise).

However, I do think fans really, really, really need to get on board with the idea that if we exclusive franchise Lamar, it'll be a fairly quiet FA period. I would be quite surprised if we're in the high-end market, and somewhat surprised in the mid-tier market. For the fans who think like a trade for a stud WR is an option, that's incredibly problematic on the tag.

I also think if he's on the tag that the "overall" of the WR haul will involve cheap veterans and draft picks, which won't appease fans and may not be a significant upgrade over what we saw. Sure, the room will look different, but will it look better?

And I'm sure there will be a contingent of fans here and everywhere else who will blame the FO for it, to which I'd point out the laughable ignorance of thinking Lamar doesn't share a large portion of the blame for it also.

And if he plays the year under the tag and there's no positive progress towards a deal for 2024, I'd say its like 90% chance he gets traded next offseason.

 

[QtR Nevermore]

I also think if he's on the tag that the "overall" of the WR haul will involve cheap veterans and draft picks, which won't appease fans and may not be a significant upgrade over what we saw. Sure, the room will look different, but will it look better?

As long as they use #22 on a WR and add some kind of vet, I think most fans will be content, just like they were pre-trade, when it looked like we were going into the season with Bateman and Brown

The Ravens will still have a run game and all the TEs. They don't need the best WR corps, they just need an NFL-level group.

 

[Thezone27]

As long as they use #22 on a WR and add some kind of vet, I think most fans will be content, just like they were pre-trade, when it looked like we were going into the season with Bateman and Brown

The Ravens will still have a run game and all the TEs. They don't need the best WR corps, they just need an NFL-level group.

they also need some cap space

 

[BoredMarine13]

However, I do think fans really, really, really need to get on board with the idea that if we exclusive franchise Lamar, it'll be a fairly quiet FA period. I would be quite surprised if we're in the high-end market, and somewhat surprised in the mid-tier market. For the fans who think like a trade for a stud WR is an option, that's incredibly problematic on the tag.

Yea it def kills the Hopkins to Baltimore talk. Feels like this forces the Ravens hand drafting a WR in the 1st as well. There are no low to mid level WR FA that make this team better.

And if he plays the year under the tag and there's no positive progress towards a deal for 2024, I'd say its like 90% chance he gets traded next offseason.

I don't want to get to that point. Its got to be a trade this year or a long term contract. His value will only change for the worst if he gets injured again.

 

[RavensMania]

Between him and tucker we’d have a jawline longer than Joe Flaccos rookie unibrow

I think it's Tucker jaw line that makes him so good.

 

[rmcjacket23]

As long as they use #22 on a WR and add some kind of vet, I think most fans will be content, just like they were pre-trade, when it looked like we were going into the season with Bateman and Brown

The Ravens will still have a run game and all the TEs. They don't need the best WR corps, they just need an NFL-level group.

Agree, however I think there's no chance they go into the draft pigeon-holing themselves into "must take" a WR in the first round. I think there's plenty of scenarios where they don't.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Yea it def kills the Hopkins to Baltimore talk. Feels like this forces the Ravens hand drafting a WR in the 1st as well. There are no low to mid level WR FA that make this team better.

I don't want to get to that point. Its got to be a trade this year or a long term contract. His value will only change for the worst if he gets injured again.

Right but his value goes up if he plays well, and could potentially go up further if other guys (Burrow, Herbert, Hurts) sign first.

I think he's playing for the Ravens this year 100%, because they won't know until at least September whether or not they've got a realistic shot to sign him long term. And by that point, its basically too late to trade.

 

[RavensMania]

So I think we can afford the tag and make some cuts/restructures. I think we will do more contract restructures than we would like, and I think either Campbell or Zeitler isn't back (either voluntarily or otherwise).

However, I do think fans really, really, really need to get on board with the idea that if we exclusive franchise Lamar, it'll be a fairly quiet FA period. I would be quite surprised if we're in the high-end market, and somewhat surprised in the mid-tier market. For the fans who think like a trade for a stud WR is an option, that's incredibly problematic on the tag.

I also think if he's on the tag that the "overall" of the WR haul will involve cheap veterans and draft picks, which won't appease fans and may not be a significant upgrade over what we saw. Sure, the room will look different, but will it look better?

And I'm sure there will be a contingent of fans here and everywhere else who will blame the FO for it, to which I'd point out the laughable ignorance of thinking Lamar doesn't share a large portion of the blame for it also.

And if he plays the year under the tag and there's no positive progress towards a deal for 2024, I'd say its like 90% chance he gets traded next offseason.

totally agree. We could bring back a player like Houston on a relatively similar deal he had this season, but we couldn't do much else.

 

[rmcjacket23]

totally agree. We could bring back a player like Houston on a relatively similar deal he had this season, but we couldn't do much else.

I tried to break it down before. You can realistically clear another $25-30M in cap space using cuts and restructures. Would give you in the range of $10-15M in cap space for FA. You can sign a couple like $8-10M a year players and backload their deals with that money, but yeah the rest is like cheap one year type deals like Houston.

Theoretically you could trade for a Hopkins with that too. Problem is you'd have to re-do his deal immediately, backload the shit out of it, AND I just don't see the Ravens giving up more draft picks for veterans like that. If they hadn't traded for Roquan, I could see it. But either they'd have to dip into 2024 draft picks (which I'm certainly not doing) or they'd have to magically get Arizona to unload him for like a day 3 pick, which ain't happening.

 

[BoredMarine13]

Right but his value goes up if he plays well, and could potentially go up further if other guys (Burrow, Herbert, Hurts) sign first.

I think he's playing for the Ravens this year 100%, because they won't know until at least September whether or not they've got a realistic shot to sign him long term. And by that point, its basically too late to trade.

Does his value really go up that much though? I think its generally understood he is a top 5 QB. Even if he has a deep playoff run, I dont think that changes his value from the estimated 3 first/a player and all the different variations inbetween.

 

[RavensMania]

I tried to break it down before. You can realistically clear another $25-30M in cap space using cuts and restructures. Would give you in the range of $10-15M in cap space for FA. You can sign a couple like $8-10M a year players and backload their deals with that money, but yeah the rest is like cheap one year type deals like Houston.

Theoretically you could trade for a Hopkins with that too. Problem is you'd have to re-do his deal immediately, backload the shit out of it, AND I just don't see the Ravens giving up more draft picks for veterans like that. If they hadn't traded for Roquan, I could see it. But either they'd have to dip into 2024 draft picks (which I'm certainly not doing) or they'd have to magically get Arizona to unload him for like a day 3 pick, which ain't happening.

with the exclusive tag, the amount that initially hits the cap is the NON exclusive number. The exclusive number doesn't get set in stone until 5 days before the draft, which is the last day of restrictive free agency. They still would need to have that 13m in their pocket (difference between non exlusive 32m and exclusive 45m), but it does give them a little more flexibility.

 

[QtR Nevermore]

Agree, however I think there's no chance they go into the draft pigeon-holing themselves into "must take" a WR in the first round. I think there's plenty of scenarios where they don't.

Obviously no team goes in with a 100% no deviation plan to take a certain position, but it's not uncommon to see a team enter the draft with the position pretty nearly nailed on. (Eg. the Ravens in '19 with Hollywood, and in '21 with Oweh a pass rusher was almost a certainty too)

Later in the first, when the stars are gone, it's much less damaging to think about position first, because it's more about fit and personal taste than player X being clearly better than player Y.

A slightly inferior WR would probably be more helpful for the Ravens over their rookie contract than a slightly better player at another posiiton anyway, such is the need.

 

[UPennChem]

I still think the Ravens have "lost" in these negotiations. There's only a few things Lamar is looking at. He's got:

1) The number he wants
2) Watson deal
3) Burrow and Herbert incoming

Lamar is in a win win no matter what. If Lamar gets his deal, then he wins. If Lamar plays on the tag and waits for Burrow and Herbert to sign, then if they get fully guaranteed deals, he will too. If they don't, then he will settle for what they're getting which is going to be huge money anyway.

Or maybe Lamar would legitimately be soooo money focused that he would even after those 2 sign, want to be on the second tag knowing he's getting another huge check prior to the big deal, or he gets traded and that team is gonna give him the big deal.

At the end of the day, it's patently obvious that the Ravens (if they've always been committed to Lamar) should have given him his deal last offseason. They didn't and they should now.

Allowing him to play on the tag, drag you along without good understanding of what you're cap is going to be, have the price increase further every year, and be a huge media disaster is not the way to go.

If he's your guy, sign him. If he's not trade him. Enough already. You're letting these "negotiations" effect the entire team over years of time. Get it right.

And before people start being annoying about impatience or something, they've got the offseason to get this done. No rush. But come week 1 if Lamar isn't signed or on another team, shame on this FO

 

[rmcjacket23]

with the exclusive tag, the amount that initially hits the cap is the NON exclusive number. The exclusive number doesn't get set in stone until 5 days before the draft, which is the last day of restrictive free agency. They still would need to have that 13m in their pocket (difference between non exlusive 32m and exclusive 45m), but it does give them a little more flexibility.

Thanks.
I think the "good thing" is that, based on what I see, the ~$45M is the peak, and it could come down. If Watson and Dak (but especially Watson) does a contract restructure before the draft (and I'd suspect it would happen in March), that would lower their cap number. I think there's potential the ultimate exclusive-tag amount could be closer to $40M than $45M.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Obviously no team goes in with a 100% no deviation plan to take a certain position, but it's not uncommon to see a team enter the draft with the position pretty nearly nailed on. (Eg. the Ravens in '19 with Hollywood, and in '21 with Oweh a pass rusher was almost a certainty too)

Later in the first, when the stars are gone, it's much less damaging to think about position first, because it's more about fit and personal taste than player X being clearly better than player Y.

A slightly inferior WR would probably be more helpful for the Ravens over their rookie contract than a slightly better player at another posiiton anyway, such is the need.

Ehh, I don't think they locked in on one position in those spots. I think they set their board with maybe 3-4 positions in mind, and just choose the highest rated players at that point.

Basically same strategy they've always used. It's not a true "BPA". Its BPA at a position of need. Most years you have multiple positions of need, just like we will this year.

Assuming FA is largely "watered down", I have no doubt they'd take a Corner in the first round if they had a highly rated Corner above whatever WRs are left. I think ultimately it will come down to 2-3 positions though. I think interior Oline and RB are clear needs, but I don't think they'll take somebody from that group in the first round, based mostly on positional value.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Does his value really go up that much though? I think its generally understood he is a top 5 QB. Even if he has a deep playoff run, I dont think that changes his value from the estimated 3 first/a player and all the different variations inbetween.

I mean the price goes up if a) he plays well and we advance in the playoffs and b) especially if multiple of these guys sign deals this offseason.

It MAY not impact guaranteed $ discussions, but if Burrow, Herbert and Hurts (some or all of them) sign deals this offseason for north of $50M in AAV, its a new floor for Lamar discussions. If, by some miracle, one or more of these guys also signs a Watson-level fully GTD contract, then its put up or shut up time for the Ravens. Either he gets same, or he walks.

Right now everybody, including the Ravens, is largely treating Watson's deal as the outlier that nobody else will do. I think that holds, but if it doesn't, it dramatically shifts the negotiations in Lamar's favor. Almost regardless of how he performs.

 

[rmcjacket23]

I still think the Ravens have "lost" in these negotiations. There's only a few things Lamar is looking at. He's got:

1) The number he wants
2) Watson deal
3) Burrow and Herbert incoming

Lamar is in a win win no matter what. If Lamar gets his deal, then he wins. If Lamar plays on the tag and waits for Burrow and Herbert to sign, then if they get fully guaranteed deals, he will too. If they don't, then he will settle for what they're getting which is going to be huge money anyway.

Or maybe Lamar would legitimately be soooo money focused that he would even after those 2 sign, want to be on the second tag knowing he's getting another huge check prior to the big deal, or he gets traded and that team is gonna give him the big deal.

At the end of the day, it's patently obvious that the Ravens (if they've always been committed to Lamar) should have given him his deal last offseason. They didn't and they should now.

Allowing him to play on the tag, drag you along without good understanding of what you're cap is going to be, have the price increase further every year, and be a huge media disaster is not the way to go.

If he's your guy, sign him. If he's not trade him. Enough already. You're letting these "negotiations" effect the entire team over years of time. Get it right.

And before people start being annoying about impatience or something, they've got the offseason to get this done. No rush. But come week 1 if Lamar isn't signed or on another team, shame on this FO

So two problems I have with this:
1. If the Burrown/Herbert/Hurts deals aren't fully gtd, Lamar is losing the negotiation, because he won't get fully gtd from us or anybody else. How much $ he actually loses we won't know for many years, because we'd need to see how his next several contracts and the trajectory of his career plays out. But if he's holding out for a Watson deal, and he doesn't get one, its hard to see where he comes out ahead.

2. I don't know what Lamar wants. We have an idea, but nobody really knows. Franchises aren't in the business of giving players exactly what they want. Quite frankly, no player is that valuable to a franchise to do that. Not peak Brady, not peak Mahomes, not peak anybody. NFL franchises, regardless of who it is, will make a shit ton of money with Lamar, and they'll make a shit ton of money without Lamar. They'll make a shit ton of money winning, and they'll make a shit ton of money losing.

There's a limit to everything. If Lamar wants X, and the Ravens don't want to give him X, then he doesn't get X. He waits another couple years and prays that somebody else will give him X. Maybe he gets it, maybe he doesn't. Ravens will have already moved on.

If there was a deal to be had, I think the deal would have gotten done already.

End of day, I care about what's in the best interest of the franchise. I couldn't give a shit less what's in the best interest of the player. He's looking out for his interests (which he should), and the franchise, Owner, etc. is looking at for their interests (which they should). Everybody is doing what they're supposed to do. If it gets done, it gets done. If he gets traded away, so be it. Franchise will continue. Just like it continued when Ray retired. Just like it continued when Ed left.

If the franchise thinks giving Lamar a $250M fully gtd deal is a deal-breaker, cool. Don't do it then. Trade him away, start over. There's no guarantees paying him a shit load of money makes this franchise better off short term or long term, because we don't know what happens if we do and we don't know what happens if we don't.

 

[redrum52]

I tried to break it down before. You can realistically clear another $25-30M in cap space using cuts and restructures. Would give you in the range of $10-15M in cap space for FA. You can sign a couple like $8-10M a year players and backload their deals with that money, but yeah the rest is like cheap one year type deals like Houston.

Theoretically you could trade for a Hopkins with that too. Problem is you'd have to re-do his deal immediately, backload the shit out of it, AND I just don't see the Ravens giving up more draft picks for veterans like that. If they hadn't traded for Roquan, I could see it. But either they'd have to dip into 2024 draft picks (which I'm certainly not doing) or they'd have to magically get Arizona to unload him for like a day 3 pick, which ain't happening.

As far as Hopkins, you really think it they're asking for that much? They're in a bad cap situation and their qb won't be there for most of the year most likely. I just don't see him going for higher than a 3rd.

 

[rmcjacket23]

As far as Hopkins, you really think it they're asking for that much? They're in a bad cap situation and their qb won't be there for most of the year most likely. I just don't see him going for higher than a 3rd.

I honestly don't know. A 3rd might get it done, but you got like the Claypool's of the world going for a 2nd rounder. He ain't half the receiver Hopkins is.
Also not apples to apples, because Claypool is cheap and anybody trading for Hopkins technically inherits a 2 year, $34.3M deal. But that's also non-guaranteed.

In my opinion, that's not really that bad of a deal though. If they were to cut Hopkins and he were to be a FA, I think he could easily get $15-20M AAV over 2-3 years from somebody.

I'm not sure they're asking for a first rounder, but maybe like a 2nd and 4th-5th rounder is realistic. I honestly don't know. I know we don't have a 2nd rounder, and I doubt a single, late 3rd rounder would get it done either.

I can say for certainty that we can't afford his presently-structured deal. If we were to trade for him, it would require likely some sort of extension or completely new deal for it to happen. And that's a 31 year old WR with a lot of injury concerns you're doing that for.