not like we would pay him what he wants
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Next Up: vs Texans
- Thread starter rossihunter2
- Start date
BoredMarine13
Ravens Ring of Honor
A couple questions for the group
1. Is there anything Houston does well that worries us?
2. Who else is taking Ravens -10? That feels like easy money.
1. Is there anything Houston does well that worries us?
2. Who else is taking Ravens -10? That feels like easy money.
redrum52
Hall of Famer
I took Ravens team total o27.5 but we're historically a good home defense so the spread probably a safer bet. Wonder how much is actually shown week 1 and yes I get the games count now. Still think they'd have some plays they don't want to show the Bengals.
This Texans team should get worked. I know they had a lot of close games last year, but rookie qb, "weak" OL and not much at wr. I'll be somewhat concerned if they're able to run on us.
allblackraven
Hall of Famer
Texans have a very nice D, on all levels. On the other side, rookie QB and a missing OL should give us enough advantage to get an easy win. I don't think it will be pretty but it will be 10+ win.
allblackraven
Hall of Famer
Simpson
There are a lot of bets I like this week: SF -2.5, I got in on Lions at +6.5 and took over on that game for points, Jags -5 over Indy, Vikings -6 over Tampa (this is the one I feel least safe about), Raiders +3.5 over Broncos, Eagles -4 over New England, Dallas -3.5 over Giants, and Seahawks -5 over Rams, but I have to say that this is not one of them. This game, the Jets vs Bills game, Packers vs Bears, and yes Ravens vs Texans have too many unknowns (also undecided on whether I would ever take a TD on Commanders even versus a tanking Cardinals team). For the Ravens the unknown is whether the offense starts slow under a new coordinator in its first regular season action. Its entire possible the Ravens are up 7 with 8 minutes to go and just run out the clock, which is also why I am hesitant to take lines of more than a TD, but look mixed over the course of the game as the offense adjusts. Its also very possible that the offense looks on fire out the gate but the lack of knowing that makes me hesitant about betting that line compared to a lot of the other lines where I can be fairly confident in what I am getting.
redrum52
Hall of Famer
Dont know how I feel about Purdy against the Steelers week 1 in pit and Bosa might not play.
I think with or without Bosa the 49ers are the most talented defense in the NFL loaded at elite talent on every level. Meanwhile they are playing against a terrible offensive unit in the Steelers who I think are the most overrated team in the NFL.
I also think people are heavily overrating the Steelers overall and that offense is going to do nothing and the defense is going to struggle against one of the best groups of weapons in the NFL. The one advantage the Steelers have is that the SF OLine is Trent Williams and some unknowns, which might be troublesome against the Steelers pass rush, but I do not think an advantage in one matchup is enough to overcome being the weaker unit in every other matchup.
Most likely. Admittedly I didn't include him because I expect him to take a lot of ST snaps over the year, and he's also a candidate to fill in some of the Bowser role based on preseason usage.
OURavensFan
Ravens Ring of Honor
Houston was atrocious against the run last year
OURavensFan
Ravens Ring of Honor
I’m taking it I agree. And ideally same thing when we play the Colts week 3
rmcjacket23
Ravens Ring of Honor
So I doubt Steelers/49ers will be on a lot of betting sheets, mostly because its priced right. If it hits SF -3, it'll be that way for maybe an hour, because every pro bettor on the planet is going to hammer Pittsburgh +3. SF getting 3 points or more, in a 1pm east coast road trip, is easily one of the biggest sucker bets of the week.
Of the prices I've seen so far, and from several of the higher-volume pro bettors I've talked to:
Browns +2.5, with many taking a straight ML position on Cleveland, has been a super heavy take. I'll be hammering this game.
Texans +10. Yeah, nobody is going to lay double digits points in week 1 confidently. I still like the Ravens with a late cover, but this is never a game I'm betting confidently. Typical public overreaction of "this team was bad last year vs this team was good last year". Historically, teams like the Texans cover this spot a shit ton of the time. Week 1 dogs of 8+ points have a 74% cover rate in the last 20 years.
Titans +3. Ten has been a great team as a dog under Vrabel, and I'm not buying NO as anything other than the best of average teams in a bad division. Another game I'll probably bet heavily.
Falcons -3.5. Falcons should be an improved team, they covered a ton of games last year, Carolina with a rookie coach and QB, and Reich is historically terrible in week 1.
Patriots +3.5. Pro bettors have literally been jerking off to this line since like July, when it jumped to -5.5 and moved down a full two points since then. A game I'm probably not betting, but Belichick getting points, at home, in a game he's had months to prep for?
Giants +3.5. Not one of my personal favorites, but its a home underdog getting more than 3 points in a week 1 divisional game. The underdog covers those games at ridiculously high rates historically.
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would also depend on whether there's any elevations coming...
wouldnt be surprised at all if they elevated worley but if they did then it's definitely gonna be at another DB's expense and i tend to think he'll remain on the PS right now with his switch to S and with Seymour and maulet being on the 53
Maulet, i'd be surprised if he's made inactive just because of his reputation and history on special teams and the fact that he's clearly a nickel... JAD feels more likely
my attempt:
QB 3
Sala
Marlo
JAD
Trenton Simpson
my guess is that with his missed weeks, simpson probably isnt embedded in the special teams units yet the way he will be later in the year - think he's the easiest to deactivate right now
but that's completely dependent on how the ravens feel about him on special teams (because he's clearly not yet in the top 4 LBs on the team on the depth chart) - only change is if they think they can get some EDGE or blitz rush on the edge from him in which case it's probably more likely Tavius Robinson gets sat even with only 3 other healthy EDGE guys on the active roster...
I have seen Giants Cowboys enough to know the game will look close but then bust out in the 3rd quarter. I also know the Cowboys are better on offense and defense than last year and the Giants are not and they covered that number fairly easily both times last year.
I think the Steelers get heavily overvalued. People treat this matchup like it is a WC level team facing a SB contender when it really is a 5 win level team who can beat up on bad teams facing a SB contender in a poor matchup. I would take -6.5 if it were offered as that is how sure I am in this bet. If I were to rate my bets this one is the one I am most confident will pay out.
I also love BB but there is no shot for the Pats to pull this upset. The simple truth is the Eagles have the best OLine in football, the best set of WRs in football and a solid TE. The weakness of the Eagles is that their defense was overrated last year and is going to be about the same this year. The problem is the Pats OLine is banged up already, they do not have anyone of note on offense (I cant think of a single offensive player that I would even say is at the level of an average starter for their position) so the recipe for beating them is not going to hold which is you win a shootout. I would have taken -5.5 all day.
The NFC is South is weird and I do not want to touch it until some clarity is revealed.
I do not disagree with the Browns analysis but I have no idea what Watson is. At this point it is entirely possible he is now Russell Wilson with the bonus of being a horrible human being.
redrum52
Hall of Famer
Agree on almost all of these.
rmcjacket23
Ravens Ring of Honor
I think pretty much all of your predictions are purely based on "last season", which is also why, not surprisingly, pro bettors are going the other way.
All these supposed pro betters basically underperformed me last season. If not for the 49ers having a QB apocalypse I would have had a perfect playoffs, just as an example.
And of course the baseline is looking at last season. You start off looking at the team was and then look at what changed to see what got better, what got worse, and what is uncertain. For example lets look at Cowboys vs Giants just to demonstrate this in principle.
The major changes from last year for the Cowboys on offense are losing a mediocre TE, moving on from Zeke who Pollard had basically replaced as the year went on, and signing Cooks who is a number 2. You could also add in their other WR Gallup is now 2 years off an ACL injury and players tend to look better 2 years removed versus the next year and meanwhile the offensive line is staying the same with the core players returning and their rookie LG becoming a 2nd year LG so he will statistically improve so their offense can safely be called better. Meanwhile on defense the only major change was replacing a scrub CB with Gillmore so that defense is certainly upgraded even if he lost a step.
Now for the Giants they basically held serve. The big move they made was getting Waller, but otherwise they largely held steady. I like their draft a lot but I am not going to put much stock in rookies week 1. That is a good way to lose money quickly.
Therefore when I look at both teams I see that the Cowboys, who again covered this spread last year, improved by more and addressed more of their positions where they could improve so I just do not see how the gap shrunk. If anything the gap grew which means I would expect the Cowboys to be able to cover an even larger spread.
I could do the same for the rest of the bets I stated but that is my formula. Start from last year and then look at the signings and try to figure out how much uncertainty I have about some of them. I have a lot of uncertainty about the Browns for instance because I have no idea if Watson was just rusty or genuinely washed up. I do also wonder if the offense just does not play to his strengths but again that is why I have too much uncertainty to touch that game until some more data appears.
Edit: I am now also happy I got in on that Chiefs line when I did.
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rmcjacket23
Ravens Ring of Honor
Well, for specifically Cowboys vs Giants, this analysis would probably be fine if the Cowboys/Giants played 17 weeks straight, or if you were betting a point spread over a whole season.
In this particular game, most bettors are going to focus on the massive coaching mismatch that favors the Giants, as opposed to the talent gaps. The talent gaps are wider (though shrinking, especially on offense), but they were also wider last year, and these two teams were basically just as good as each other in the long run.
Mike McCarthy is shit as a HC and even shittier as a play caller, which is why people can't wait to fade Dallas in this spot. Dreadful as a traveling favorite, Dallas is notorious for laying week one eggs (especially in primetime), and Giants have a massive coaching advantage, are getting points, and are at home.
I don't like the line because I think Dallas winning by a FG is priced right. But you won't find many outside of the general public backing Mike McCarthy on the road in primetime often. Especially when they're laying points.
