Accurate analytics of our draft picks

[29BmoreBird22]

Im all for people trying to find new ways to get ahead of competition and out smart everyone else. This type of stuff will continue to pop up for several years and while im sure some of it may pan out, some of it wont, so if its 50/50 then what does it really matter?

One thing that makes zero sense to me which i dont think was touched on, is the lack of accounting for who plays next to who. Lets say Wormley doesnt meet this guys criteria, well him next to Brandon Williams might free him up to do more. He may need a better player next to him, but this is a team sport and i dont believe you can use this as an end all be all. Working together as a team can bring out the best in some players, ie if Bowser becomes the starter next to Mosely who knows what level Mosely can take his game to because the coverage skill of Bowser will open things up.

Its interesting, i just dont buy into stuff like this for the most part.

This is also a very fair point.

Many players succeed or fail based on the situation they're put in. For example, I bet Garrett would be 100000x better by being on the Ravens or Patriots. Will he be good in Cleveland? I'm sure he will be. Will he realize his full potential? I'm less sure than if he went to a much more loaded team.

This computer algorithm is too black and white.

 

[Sledge Hammer]

Im all for people trying to find new ways to get ahead of competition and out smart everyone else. This type of stuff will continue to pop up for several years and while im sure some of it may pan out, some of it wont, so if its 50/50 then what does it really matter?

One thing that makes zero sense to me which i dont think was touched on, is the lack of accounting for who plays next to who. Lets say Wormley doesnt meet this guys criteria, well him next to Brandon Williams might free him up to do more. He may need a better player next to him, but this is a team sport and i dont believe you can use this as an end all be all. Working together as a team can bring out the best in some players, ie if Bowser becomes the starter next to Mosely who knows what level Mosely can take his game to because the coverage skill of Bowser will open things up.

Its interesting, i just dont buy into stuff like this for the most part.

It's actually pretty basic. It takes combine numbers a little further. That all. As in a 5'10 180 lb wr that is very productive in sec. and runs. 4.85. The numbers we currently use would cause him to not be drafted based on no player with those numbers was ever successful. However it's new and we're not yet comfortable with these stats. Definitely not a tell all but it could prove very effective to take into consideration when weighing everything trying to determine players

 

[usmccharles]

It's actually pretty basic. It takes combine numbers a little further. That all. As in a 5'10 180 lb wr that is very productive in sec. and runs. 4.85. The numbers we currently use would cause him to not be drafted based on no player with those numbers was ever successful. However it's new and we're not yet comfortable with these stats. Definitely not a tell all but it could prove very effective to take into consideration when weighing everything trying to determine players

I might agree more if it were just skill positions which said player is more on an island or is relied upon more. But even then, if your OL is bad for a RB or you have a shitty qb over throwing all the time, some of that wont matter. I am definitely not ignoring the fact that this information can be proven to be useful, but its just not something i would by into, besides, wheres the Heart points at.

 

[flynismo]

This is also a very fair point.

Many players succeed or fail based on the situation they're put in. For example, I bet Garrett would be 100000x better by being on the Ravens or Patriots. Will he be good in Cleveland? I'm sure he will be. Will he realize his full potential? I'm less sure than if he went to a much more loaded team.

This computer algorithm is too black and white.

Anything going just on numbers alone is going to lack any context. It doesn't account for quality of competition, which is a big deal since production is weighed heavily. It doesn't account for the system he played in, the one he's headed to, the players around him, injuries, or pretty much anything else other than whatever integer it can plug into a formula.

 

[Grim]

The hard thing about numbers is the Combine itself is an event these prospects specifically train themselves to do. There have been numerous instances of guys with good Combine numbers amounting to little as a Pro. Granted these numbers are supposedly using the Combine statistics combined with their production to determine their outlook. It's not a crazy proposition to think this guy may have something but you just have to wonder how accurate he is. I'd need to see historical predictions and see how right he was for at least a couple years before I start buying into it. It could be an interesting development.

I haven't watched his video yet but I will after the gym.

 

[RavensMania]

The hard thing about numbers is the Combine itself is an event these prospects specifically train themselves to do. There have been numerous instances of guys with good Combine numbers amounting to little as a Pro. Granted these numbers are supposedly using the Combine statistics combined with their production to determine their outlook. It's not a crazy proposition to think this guy may have something but you just have to wonder how accurate he is. I'd need to see historical predictions and see how right he was for at least a couple years before I start buying into it. It could be an interesting development.

I haven't watched his video yet but I will after the gym.

It will be interesting to view the historical data, but I'm sure it will reveal how inconsistent these analytics are. Too many things go into scouting that go over and above analytics to make it a perfect science.

 

[Grim]

So I just watched the video. It's interesting for sure but I'm not sure it's that easy and I am wondering if he's using college and NFL statistics or just data from them coming out of college. Could be kinda iffy here on whether these are actually worth anything or not.

 

[Sami84]

It's all fair enough. Let's be clear on something that we can ALL agree on. Most draft class have a certain % Bust to Success ratio . Meaning that usually (around 90% of time) in an average draft size ( 7) you end up with 3 players who range between Stars to starters, 1 backup and 3 busts.

Check out all our draft classes. Last years might be different ( we had a massive class of 11 players) where we could have 5 players who range between stars to starters, but every other class is usually just 2-3 at BEST. Sometimes we're unlucky and just have 1 ( 2004 and 2010)
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So I just watched the video. It's interesting for sure but I'm not sure it's that easy and I am wondering if he's using college and NFL statistics or just data from them coming out of college. Could be kinda iffy here on whether these are actually worth anything or not.

It's just college.

 

[Sledge Hammer]

Long day at the Preakness navigating the crowd. I watched Tim Williams combine drills. I have to say he is the smoothest stand up edge rusher ever at changing direction. Seems to change direction instantly and effortlessly. He should stand out in coverage for an edge rusher similar to kalil Mack and Boulware. He never stops amazing. He is far more explosive than his computer numbers. A little more upper body mass and he is somebody that will challenge for DPOY.

 

[Sami84]

Long day at the Preakness navigating the crowd. I watched Tim Williams combine drills. I have to say he is the smoothest stand up edge rusher ever at changing direction. Seems to change direction instantly and effortlessly. He should stand out in coverage for an edge rusher similar to kalil Mack and Boulware. He never stops amazing. He is far more explosive than his computer numbers. A little more upper body mass and he is somebody that will challenge for DPOY.

his 3 cone and short shuttle time baffle me..

i'd have liked him to try it again..