Regarding the seven losses with a 75% win probability-
Someone did the math for the past two seasons and the Ravens actually win 75% of the games where they were favored to win 75% going into the fourth... meaning they're statistically exactly where they should be, based on this model.
I think what makes it frustrating is that it's games like Miami or Cleveland where the Ravens had such a commanding lead, but squandered it. Those losses stand out heavily.
On the flip side, though, think of games like Detroit or Seattle where the Ravens strangled their opponent after building large leads.
On the one hand, it's concerning that the Ravens cannot seem to hold onto large leads at a clip that seems to be below average against the league, but at the same time, I can't remember games under Lamar, especially recently, where the Ravens were heavily blown out and I felt hopeless.
Yes, it sucks, and it hurts, and it is worrying when the Ravens blow a big lead, but they're also competitive down to the wire in these games and are mostly losing due to "bad luck." Think the Oweh fumble. That's "bad luck." The thing with "luck" in sports is that you find a way to manufacture your own luck and given a large enough sample size, I do think it'll even out and the Ravens will start coming out on top, like they would have if they'd recovered the fumble.
I guess what I'm saying is that I'm concerned with the Ravens inability to hold a lead and have to wonder where that starts (play calling? Players letting up? Leadership? Bad mistakes? All of it, most likely), but this is still a team that is extremely good and talented and this is a team that's going to win more blowouts than they're going to squander and lose. We remember the losses because they're painful, but for every Cleveland, there's a Seattle or Detroit.
This team will be okay.