"America First" sounds well and good, and in principle every country should be putting their own interests first, but I'd argue that a mutual opening up of the markets (and keeping them open) is the best way to drive that. Foreign aid makes up about 0.5% of federal spending, so even cutting 30-plus per cent of it won't do an awful lot for lowering the deficit or furthering American interests. One (very valid) complaint I see from Trump supporters is that they're sick of pumping money into the military and being the world police at the expense of healthcare and education funding - which I agree with, but both of Trump's skinny budgets to date have involved increased military spending. There's nothing stopping the US from simply paring back military spending and redistributing it - and voters should get pissed off at leaders who promise to do that and then do the opposite. I saw one analysis where scaling back the bloated national security agencies and upgrading neonatal healthcare would save almost 20 times as many lives. But I digress.
It's true jobs have been leaving, but in the past decade especially automation has been a much bigger part of that. There are 7 million fewer manufacturing jobs than there were in 1979, but manufacturing production has doubled in that time. Threatening to whack tariffs on China and Mexico makes for good soundbite material, but the actual impact of those tariffs is usually overblown or has a greater cost than it's worth. For example China in 2009 flooded the US market with 50 million tyres, and in response Obama put a 35% tariff on Chinese tyres until they scaled back production. It saved about
1200 jobs, but the corresponding price hikes meant it cost the economy about $900,000 for each of those jobs. Meanwhile, China put a 105% tax on chicken feet in retaliation, which cost chicken farmers about $1.1 billion in lost exports. Meanwhile, for all the talk of getting manufacturing jobs back from China, a Wells Fargo report published in January estimates about 70% of its factory jobs are at risk due to automation in the next decade. So putting up tariffs won't bring jobs back from China, because they've already either been lost to Bangladesh and Vietnam (now that China's becoming a middle-income economy a lot of lower-paid jobs are heading elsewhere now) or they're vanishing altogether. Free trade is complicated and it's asymmetrical, so some regions win and others lose - but every country benefits in the bigger picture. Consumers get more choice, every producer is forced to become more efficient, and everyone gets access to bigger markets. The question that people need to be asking is how to best compensate the losers from free trade (the regions that gain jobs from free trade aren't always the regions that lose them due to the same reason). If I were to guess, the answer would be something more like a UBI, better compensation laws for displaced workers and a form of robot tax (taxing Amazon's drones like actual employees, for example), but that's one of the big macroeconomic questions of our time. If the Dems want to win back power any time soon they need to start finding answers to those questions, because even though I think Trump's completely misguided in his rhetoric, at least he's suggesting something.
Wall Street numbers don't mean an awful lot imo (and I say this to anyone who uses the sharemarket as proof Obama was great for the economy btw). The Dow Jones, for example, is just a weighted index of the share price of a few big players that relies disproportionately on the performance of Goldman Sachs - John Authers has written a fair bit about this for the Financial Times. The S&P indices are better since they factor in market cap, but they too tend to be caught up in market hype and panic. The current growth shows an optimism that Trump will get his tax cuts and deregulations passed, which in itself is a good thing but the September budget will be a more accurate indicator of investor confidence. Fiscal policy usually takes at least a year to see its true effects, so it's too early to pass blame/credit for the state of the economy onto Trump yet.
Sincere question since I haven't seen any details on this yet, but how many jobs do you expect the wall to save? The average family pays about
$14,000 in federal taxes, and if Trump gets the $2.6 billion he's asked for from the Treasury the wall will have to be shown to have saved 185,715 jobs (where the taxes do nothing but fund the wall - no new spending on infrastructure or anything else) for it to be worth it. If his own conservative estimates on the campaign trail of $8 billion prove to be the actual spend then it'd need to save 571,429 jobs - otherwise the project adds to the national debt. I feel like the wall is a moot point since I don't see the House Republicans freeing up the money, but I find the economics of infrastructure projects pretty interesting so it's an interesting hypothetical.
A lot of world powers these days are torn between a 19th century "spheres of influence" model and the post-war interconnected one that the US has obviously done a lot to help build. The US role in the world has already been poked at a couple of times, albeit in comparatively minor ways (China using its own pressure to get South Korea to back out of buying the THAAD defences, and I think Saudi Arabia used Trump's visit as an implicit carte blanche to set up its current blockades on Qatar), but the big tests will probably be if Russia tries something else similar with the Ukraine, what happens if China keeps ramping up its hard power in the South China Sea, or how the US and China handle any developments on the Korean peninsula. As an observer in the Asia-Pacific I know China's been growing its influence a lot in these parts (which I don't think is necessarily a bad thing - a lot of that is in the form of increased investment and foreign aid), and the US sits at an interesting pivot point in it all. Asia is going to be the most lucrative and dynamic region of the next century, and the US exerting the right kind of influence will lead to a huge amount of prosperity and opportunities for everyone (going back to the topic of coal, China knows about the impact of climate change and is working to become a bigger investor in clean energy - and the government is willing to pay BIG money to anyone that helps, representing one of the biggest export opportunities in human history). That's why I think backing out of the TPP was a mistake (and would have been had Hillary done it too) - the agreement itself was largely about setting up a regional trading bloc with US-based standards for things like IP protection. It had set the stage for China to join the bloc in the future, but it would have to do so on US terms.
Sorry for rambling. I'm starting a Masters in Professional Economics next year and I find a lot of this stuff really interesting. It's just a shame that none of the big players in the media seemed interested in covering this stuff on the campaign trail and how these days everyone's obsessed with the Russia thing (which 100% needs to be looked into, but like The Raven says it's more of a distraction than anything else at this point) or whatever Trump said on Twitter that day.