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The Running Game, the Turnovers, and the Same Ol’ Ravens

Baltimorican

Practice Squad
Yeah so there's a couple problems with this:
1. Goedert's contract came before the Eagles signed either of their two expensive WRs.
2. While EDC is much more aggressive with the cap than Ozzie was, I don't see EDC doing max void years like Philly does.
3. 5 for 70, in my opinion, would be a massive, massive overpay. I don't think Likely would get anything in the stratosphere of that on the open market, and he would need to take a HUGE step forward in terms of output, efficiency, and target share to warrant that level of contract. I think, today, its something closer to the 3/30 range of like a Hunter Henry type.
4. Right around the time you'll decide to pay Likely is about the same time you'll decide to pay Flowers, and Flowers is obviously significantly more valuable and significantly more expensive.
5. I'm not certain Andrews would take a $4M AAV paycut based on a bad performance in one playoff game. Either he won't get extended at all and leave, or I think he'll be extended at something closer to like 2/25 or closer to 2/30. Just lighter on the guaranteed $.

I like Likely, but I don't think finding a player like him in day 2 or day 3 of the draft is super difficult.

Well obviously I'm ballparking very roughly but at least on the theoretical level:

Eagles always spend to the max and Goedert's contract was seen as high at the time for a guy who was the #2 behind Ertz. A contract for Likely that says 5/70 but is really more like 4/52 would put him right in line with guys like Freirmuth/Engram and even Andrews. If you think he's the heir apparent (and he sure looks the part) that's the type of contract you lock him into under your terms right now.

Likely and Flowers don't compete for big contracts IMO, you should be able top pay 2 pass catchers. If anything you might have to choose between Likely and Bateman. IMO The guys they should prioritize to lock in over next 2 yrs are Hamilton/Linderbaum/Flowers/Likely. And after that you have to make decisions on Oweh/T Jones/Bateman/Faalale (you can prolly keep 2/4).

I'll buy your adjustment to Andrews contract, I didn't put much thought into it but again I'm factoring in a "dummy" year.
 

JoeyFlex5

Hall of Famer
Yeah so there's a couple problems with this:
1. Goedert's contract came before the Eagles signed either of their two expensive WRs.
2. While EDC is much more aggressive with the cap than Ozzie was, I don't see EDC doing max void years like Philly does.
3. 5 for 70, in my opinion, would be a massive, massive overpay. I don't think Likely would get anything in the stratosphere of that on the open market, and he would need to take a HUGE step forward in terms of output, efficiency, and target share to warrant that level of contract. I think, today, its something closer to the 3/30 range of like a Hunter Henry type.
4. Right around the time you'll decide to pay Likely is about the same time you'll decide to pay Flowers, and Flowers is obviously significantly more valuable and significantly more expensive.
5. I'm not certain Andrews would take a $4M AAV paycut based on a bad performance in one playoff game. Either he won't get extended at all and leave, or I think he'll be extended at something closer to like 2/25 or closer to 2/30. Just lighter on the guaranteed $.

I like Likely, but I don't think finding a player like him in day 2 or day 3 of the draft is super difficult.
I feel you’re severely underestimating Likely
 
maybe a day 2 pick. In your opinion would you prefer a move your chains possession type or even a Hollywood type ---- even a reunion may be beneficial since it's no longer Greg Roman.
I don't think a guy like Hollywood would like to play in this offense unless he somehow missed the vibes with Lamar cause I think he would want to be in a offense where he's legit the number one or two wide receiver..I don't think Bateman deserves to be demoted either. I think this offense needs a wide receiver that is good against beating man coverage which is why they traded for Diontae Johnson.

Probably going to be tough to find that type of receiver whom won't complain about targets but anything possible.if I'm the ravens I probably just re- sign Tylan Wallace and re- sign Anthony Miller with some hope Tez Walker develops further then see what's you can get in the draft and if theres a quality receiver available later down the road in free agency then attempt to sign one.
 

JAAM

Hall of Famer
I don't think a guy like Hollywood would like to play in this offense unless he somehow missed the vibes with Lamar cause I think he would want to be in a offense where he's legit the number one or two wide receiver..I don't think Bateman deserves to be demoted either. I think this offense needs a wide receiver that is good against beating man coverage which is why they traded for Diontae Johnson.

Probably going to be tough to find that type of receiver whom won't complain about targets but anything possible.if I'm the ravens I probably just re- sign Tylan Wallace and re- sign Anthony Miller with some hope Tez Walker develops further then see what's you can get in the draft and if theres a quality receiver available later down the road in free agency then attempt to sign one.
Agreed. I doubt Hollywood would like his role here. I wouldn’t be upset making Tylan the #3 if he were to be re-signed, but I wouldn’t mind someone like Elijah Moore, or if we’re looking to upgrade Bateman (which I don’t see why we would), I’d love to have Godwin here. Amari Cooper could also be extremely interesting.
 

RavensMania

Staff Member
Administrator
if you go back to that game, the Skins had fumbled on the kickoff on the final drive and it went out of bounds. If it doesn't go out of bounds the entire RG3 and Kirk Cousins story could be very different.

If

I don't think a guy like Hollywood would like to play in this offense unless he somehow missed the vibes with Lamar cause I think he would want to be in a offense where he's legit the number one or two wide receiver..I don't think Bateman deserves to be demoted either. I think this offense needs a wide receiver that is good against beating man coverage which is why they traded for Diontae Johnson.

Probably going to be tough to find that type of receiver whom won't complain about targets but anything possible.if I'm the ravens I probably just re- sign Tylan Wallace and re- sign Anthony Miller with some hope Tez Walker develops further then see what's you can get in the draft and if theres a quality receiver available later down the road in free agency then attempt to sign one.

Agreed. I doubt Hollywood would like his role here. I wouldn’t be upset making Tylan the #3 if he were to be re-signed, but I wouldn’t mind someone like Elijah Moore, or if we’re looking to upgrade Bateman (which I don’t see why we would), I’d love to have Godwin here. Amari Cooper could also be extremely interesting.
I agree with both of you. The more I thought about it the more agreed that he wouldn't be happy with the lack of targets as a number 3 in this offense.
 

29BmoreBird22

Staff Member
Moderator
Writer
Not even close in comparison. AFCCG The Evans drop cost a trip to the SB. The Cundiff miss, another chance lost to get to the SB.
The Cundiff kick, like the Andrews drop, ties the game, so that's at least comparable, if nothing else.
 

rossihunter2

Staff Member
Moderator
Agreed. I doubt Hollywood would like his role here. I wouldn’t be upset making Tylan the #3 if he were to be re-signed, but I wouldn’t mind someone like Elijah Moore, or if we’re looking to upgrade Bateman (which I don’t see why we would), I’d love to have Godwin here. Amari Cooper could also be extremely interesting.

i would hate for tylan to be our WR3 for the 2nd year in a row
what's he shown that he's anymore than like a WR5 lol

we really need a WR3 upgrade - right now if bate or zay goes down like zay just did we're left with 1 starter level WR and a bunch of special teamers to work with... that's not a good situation and it goes from a good WR group to basically league worst in one go

nelly was supposed to be that guy but he dropped off this year

i would not be surprised if we end up drafting a guy with a decently high pick
 

Baltimorican

Practice Squad
i would hate for tylan to be our WR3 for the 2nd year in a row
what's he shown that he's anymore than like a WR5 lol

we really need a WR3 upgrade - right now if bate or zay goes down like zay just did we're left with 1 starter level WR and a bunch of special teamers to work with... that's not a good situation and it goes from a good WR group to basically league worst in one go

nelly was supposed to be that guy but he dropped off this year

i would not be surprised if we end up drafting a guy with a decently high pick

I'd like to see a Mack Hollins type tbh. That 3rd Wr is going to get reps in running downs so a guy that savages opposing Cb's would fit in well.
 

rmcjacket23

Ravens Ring of Honor
Well obviously I'm ballparking very roughly but at least on the theoretical level:

Eagles always spend to the max and Goedert's contract was seen as high at the time for a guy who was the #2 behind Ertz. A contract for Likely that says 5/70 but is really more like 4/52 would put him right in line with guys like Freirmuth/Engram and even Andrews. If you think he's the heir apparent (and he sure looks the part) that's the type of contract you lock him into under your terms right now.

Likely and Flowers don't compete for big contracts IMO, you should be able top pay 2 pass catchers. If anything you might have to choose between Likely and Bateman. IMO The guys they should prioritize to lock in over next 2 yrs are Hamilton/Linderbaum/Flowers/Likely. And after that you have to make decisions on Oweh/T Jones/Bateman/Faalale (you can prolly keep 2/4).

I'll buy your adjustment to Andrews contract, I didn't put much thought into it but again I'm factoring in a "dummy" year.
So I don't think you're considering that a) a lot of the expensive players we have will get more expensive, due to deferred cap $ (Lamar, Mads, Roquan, namely), b) people still want Stanley back, who of course will be expensive and won't get another 5 year deal, meaning there's less ability to spread out his cap hits, and c) I'm seeing people still asking for significant expenditures in FA, which will obviously be multi-year deals in some cases.
So when it comes down to it, you're looking at multi-year, market value deals that either will need to be given, or are already given, to the following guys (all of whom I would prioritize over Likely):
Lamar
Roquan
Marlon
Stanley (if he stays)
Linderbaum
Hamilton
Madubuike
Henry

Bateman will be much more expensive on his next deal, I have no idea what Oweh's value will be, but it won't be "cheap", and I would imagine Travis Jones has easily priced himself out of Baltimore, though some would argue he'd be a priority over Likely.
 

Baltimorican

Practice Squad
So I don't think you're considering that a) a lot of the expensive players we have will get more expensive, due to deferred cap $ (Lamar, Mads, Roquan, namely), b) people still want Stanley back, who of course will be expensive and won't get another 5 year deal, meaning there's less ability to spread out his cap hits, and c) I'm seeing people still asking for significant expenditures in FA, which will obviously be multi-year deals in some cases.
So when it comes down to it, you're looking at multi-year, market value deals that either will need to be given, or are already given, to the following guys (all of whom I would prioritize over Likely):
Lamar
Roquan
Marlon
Stanley (if he stays)
Linderbaum
Hamilton
Madubuike
Henry

Bateman will be much more expensive on his next deal, I have no idea what Oweh's value will be, but it won't be "cheap", and I would imagine Travis Jones has easily priced himself out of Baltimore, though some would argue he'd be a priority over Likely.

Ultimately the guy who will decide if the Ravens can reload with half a dozen contracts to these great draft picks of the last 4 years AND keep the key vets is Lamar Jackson. He got his money his way and now he has to decide if he's going to be flexible going forward in his quest for a ring. If he doesn't then and only then will your talent exodus apocalypse scenario come true. If Lamar does restructure, EDC can make all of this work fairly easily.
 

rmcjacket23

Ravens Ring of Honor
I'm with you. I see him as Goedert situation 2.0. He will get paid as a front line starter here or somewhere else and EDc will not be "gigling like a little girl" for a 4th rd comp pick.
And if he gets paid as a front line starter somewhere else, I think he'll struggle to live up to his contract. Which ironically, matches Goedert. Goedert is #4 in AAV among TEs, and he's not been a top 5 TE in this league the last five years.
 

rmcjacket23

Ravens Ring of Honor
Ultimately the guy who will decide if the Ravens can reload with half a dozen contracts to these great draft picks of the last 4 years AND keep the key vets is Lamar Jackson. He got his money his way and now he has to decide if he's going to be flexible going forward in his quest for a ring. If he doesn't then and only then will your talent exodus apocalypse scenario come true. If Lamar does restructure, EDC can make all of this work fairly easily.
OK so after 2025, we're no longer talking "restructures" with Lamar. We're talking extensions. A "hometown discount" for Lamar would be $50M a year in AAV, and if he asked for $60M+ either this offseason or next, we would give it to him and it would be totally justified.

And lets be clear... the future extensions won't lead to Lamar playing on like $20M cap hits anymore. Lamar has yet to play a single season where his cap hit was higher than $33M. Those days are over. His cap hit increased $11M this offseason alone, and it balloons to north of $74M the next two years. Obviously he gets extended before then, but Lamar's cap hits will be pretty much perpetually high going forward until the day that he's no longer a Raven. At least $35-40M every year, and most years will be a lot higher.

Assuming he does even a 3 year extension in 2026 (which keeps him under team control for five years), I think a 3 year extension will easily be for $180-200M.

And make no mistake... they can afford a lot of these guys even with Lamar at that price point. They just can't afford to pay Likely a $14M/year contract, nor do I think they'd even want to. They'll prioritize others at more critical positions.

Now... IF they were able to sign Likely for, say, $8-10M a year, then I think they'd do it. Especially if the guaranteed $ is gone after year 2.
 

Baltimorican

Practice Squad
And if he gets paid as a front line starter somewhere else, I think he'll struggle to live up to his contract. Which ironically, matches Goedert. Goedert is #4 in AAV among TEs, and he's not been a top 5 TE in this league the last five years.

That's actually true. Goedert looked the part of a top 5 TE and hasn't quite lived up to it mostly because of injuries . But that's how the Eagles operate, they give the contract to the ascending player and its hard to argue with their overall roster construction. Likely would be TE1 on about 2/3 of NFL rosters. He's young and ascending with a pro bowl ceiling and a decent blocker to boot. I think good organizations lock that guy in.
 

Baltimorican

Practice Squad
OK so after 2025, we're no longer talking "restructures" with Lamar. We're talking extensions. A "hometown discount" for Lamar would be $50M a year in AAV, and if he asked for $60M+ either this offseason or next, we would give it to him and it would be totally justified.

Semantics dude, the extension carries the dual purpose of restructuring. The real word we want is flexible, he needs to be more team friendly going forward if he wants to "run it back" throughout his prime.
 

gtalk12

Ravens Ring of Honor
Likely has a bit too much potential to let walk.

Unless he has a monster year this year, I don't see him being priced out
 

JAAM

Hall of Famer
Likely has a bit too much potential to let walk.

Unless he has a monster year this year, I don't see him being priced out
Unpopular opinion but I think he could be better than Mark
 
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