I don't disagree, but they've had one large batch of "opt-outers" already. A couple more like that with some more marquee players in there, a bigger outbreak in MLB, more College divisions cancelling... the "excuse" to pull the plug would be in place. I'm still there with you that I think they start, but the reality is that the NFL is even more susceptible to an outbreak merely by their proximity to one another during play. Imagine a couple teams going down. That might mean 4 teams quarantined and 4 games postponed the next week. A couple more go down and you've got half the games potentially postponed. The snowball will be gathering much faster than MLB. I can't help but thinking this is what the Collges divisions are coming to grips with. It doesn't mean it's going to happen....... but if you come out looking bad in how you handled anything about this, it might be better to take you're lumps in backtracking the "We're going to play," message.
1. The deadline for opt outs has since passed, so barring the league opening that up again (which they won't) or a marquee player literally forfeiting tens of millions of dollars (and losing a year of contract status) to sit out, there's not going to be any more opt outs of note.
2. I don't really think they're that much much susceptible to virus spread than, say, basketball. Maybe a little bit, but if you're testing before games, does it really matter? Its not like they're not going to test the heck out of these guys.
They're more susceptible to outbreaks because they won't be in a bubble. As it stands now, these guys are going to travel, be in their own homes multiple times a week, and just have general freedom to live their lives. They're not going to be quarantined at a resort.
That's what amplifies the risk.
3. I don't think the NFL cares one little bit about what other leagues are doing. They'll point to the amateurism of college football as a reason for their possible postponement (which certainly plays a role), and they'll point to the many differences with other sports as to why the NFL can't and shouldn't operate like they did.
In the truly macro sense, there's only really two things these leagues are actually worried about:
1. Players dying
2. Basically what college football is concerned with, which is long term effects and possible future lawsuits. Its Concussions 2.0. If players get COVID while participating in the season, recover, and all of the sudden need a lung transplant 20 years from now due to complications, they'll fire up the class action suits against the leagues, and go for big payouts.
Everything else, I would bet, is tolerable to the league. COVID outbreaks in week 6 that require the season to be shut down are fine. Why? That's 5 weeks of revenue they wouldn't have gotten if they postponed before the season started.
Deaths from family members of players is probably "OK". Why? Because you can't just blame it on the players. Contact tracing largely doesn't exist in this Country, so they'll never be able to prove where the source of the virus spread came from.