The Random Thought Thread

[rmcjacket23]

and now Kelce. The Chiefs are now paying Kelce, Hill, Jones and Mahomes. I wonder what their roster is going to look like. Looks very top heavy kinda similar what the Rams did.

Well, keep in mind a few things:
1. Mahomes is still reasonably prices for two more years. $5.3M this year, just under $25M next year.
2. Kelce is only under contract through 2021, and only costs $9M in 2021. He'll be 32 at the time his deal expires, so I seriously doubt he would get an extension for the Chiefs, or if he did, it wouldn't be for nearly what he got. I suspect he won't be a Chief beyond 2021.
3. Hill's cap hit actually drops by like $2M in 2021, down to around $16M. I personally have doubts about his long-term longevity in KC beyond his current deal, which expires after 2022. Guys primary attribute/benefit is speed, and speed declines the older you get. Don't see a lot of 30+ year old receivers getting $20M a year deals that rely on speed and quickness as much as he does.

So realistically, by the time Mahomes contract starts getting up over that $30M a year range (2022), I think Kelce will be gone, and Hill could be in one of the last few years of his deal. So they'll probably be committing somewhere in the range of like $60-70M to those three guys (Hill, Mahomes and Jones), but that leaves plenty to go around.

Like any other team, the more expensive Mahomes gets, the more they'll have to rely on drafted talent to fill the roster. If they draft well, they'll be great for a long time. If they don't, they won't be bad, but they'll struggle to compete for Lombardi's.

 

[rmcjacket23]

And of course, as I'm typing this, they announce a possible extension for Kelce. So guess I whiffed on that one.

Still would like to see the details. I suspect its front-loaded and they'll still be able to get out of it relatively easily after 2-3 years, so timeline still may be around 2022-2023 for a release. I don't know why any team would be committing big $ to a TE who's like 33-34. They generally don't age well.

 

[Simba]

I always have a hard time believing Kelce is actually 30 years old because it doesn't feel like he's been around that long.

 

[rossihunter2]

and now Kelce. The Chiefs are now paying Kelce, Hill, Jones and Mahomes. I wonder what their roster is going to look like. Looks very top heavy kinda similar what the Rams did.

the key difference being that the rams went all in around jared goff and the chiefs are going all in around patrick mahomes - rams got to a superbowl with jared goff at qb

 

[JO_75]

Seahawks cut UDFA Kemah Siverand for trying to sneak a woman into team hotel. I'm sure it's lonely in the hotel and stuff but you trying to make this your career and you gave it all away already? Damn.

The woman was reportedly wearing Seahawks gear in an effort to make her look like a player who had access to the hotel.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.c...nd-for-trying-to-sneak-woman-into-team-hotel/

 

[JoeyFlex5]

at this rate does anyone think its entirely possible that andrews ends up in an odd man out sort of situation? andrews is clearly a cornerstone type of player, but teams are paying TEs as if the cap isnt gonna stagnate or decrease, but it likely will in some way, and as much as we value the TE position its still obvious that stanley and lamar will come first, and it also feels obvious that when the day comes we are gonna prioritize hollywood over andrews as well, so if were keeping the future in mind when handing out contracts, andrews might fall short because of hollywoods potential looming extension. if TEs are getting paid like this i can totally imagine andrews just pricing himself out of reach for us.

 

[Simba]

at this rate does anyone think its entirely possible that andrews ends up in an odd man out sort of situation? andrews is clearly a cornerstone type of player, but teams are paying TEs as if the cap isnt gonna stagnate or decrease, but it likely will in some way, and as much as we value the TE position its still obvious that stanley and lamar will come first, and it also feels obvious that when the day comes we are gonna prioritize hollywood over andrews as well, so if were keeping the future in mind when handing out contracts, andrews might fall short because of hollywoods potential looming extension. if TEs are getting paid like this i can totally imagine andrews just pricing himself out of reach for us.

We've definitely got a potential gauntlet coming up and someone is likely going to have to be the odd man out, but I'm not sure it's Andrews.

Ronnie Stanley, Marlon Humphrey, Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Orlando Brown are the big names up in the next 2 years. I'd think Stanley will get done. Humphrey will get done. Lamar will obviously get done if he keeps it up.

Even with those 3, we do have some bigger dollars coming off the books though in Brandon Williams, Earl Thomas, Calais Campbell just to name a few that expire or are likely to be cut in the next 2 years. It's not inconceivable that we could lock up all of the 5 above, but if there's an odd man out, I'm leaning toward Orlando Brown right now.

We've still got 4 years of Hollywood (including the 5th year option). Too soon to be worrying about him. He'll likely play the next 3 before we get serious about extending him.

With all of that, I'd be surprised if we paid Judon. I can see us really being willing to take a risk and go up and get a top pass rusher in the next couple of years if we can keep the rest of the core together.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

We've definitely got a potential gauntlet coming up and someone is likely going to have to be the odd man out, but I'm not sure it's Andrews.

Ronnie Stanley, Marlon Humphrey, Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Orlando Brown are the big names up in the next 2 years. I'd think Stanley will get done. Humphrey will get done. Lamar will obviously get done if he keeps it up.

Even with those 3, we do have some bigger dollars coming off the books though in Brandon Williams, Earl Thomas, Calais Campbell just to name a few that expire or are likely to be cut in the next 2 years. It's not inconceivable that we could lock up all of the 5 above, but if there's an odd man out, I'm leaning toward Orlando Brown right now.

We've still got 4 years of Hollywood (including the 5th year option). Too soon to be worrying about him. He'll likely play the next 3 before we get serious about extending him.

With all of that, I'd be surprised if we paid Judon. I can see us really being willing to take a risk and go up and get a top pass rusher in the next couple of years if we can keep the rest of the core together.

I think the more likely scenario is that a ton of money comes off of the defensive side and the defense becomes young, and we aim to absolutely load up the defense through the draft and let this offensive lineup get the big money, we’ve spent most of our big money on defense for a long time, I think there’s gonna be a total reversal on our cap. Come 2022 our offense will account for 75% of our cap, and we’ll be having these same discussions about Queen, madubuike, and Harrison.

 

[rmcjacket23]

I think the more likely scenario is that a ton of money comes off of the defensive side and the defense becomes young, and we aim to absolutely load up the defense through the draft and let this offensive lineup get the big money, we’ve spent most of our big money on defense for a long time, I think there’s gonna be a total reversal on our cap. Come 2022 our offense will account for 75% of our cap, and we’ll be having these same discussions about Queen, madubuike, and Harrison.

Exactly. I made a post about this towards end of the season I believe.

Right now, the offensive is young and cheap, and the defense is older and costs more. In about 2-3 years, that will almost certainly reverse.

In 2-3 years, I think Earl Thomas will certainly be gone. Jimmy will be gone. I think Brandon Williams will likely be gone. Calais Campbell will be gone. Derek Wolfe will be gone. Judon may even be gone.

It'll probably be Marlon and Peters (assuming Peters is still here at that point), and probably the two young linebackers we drafted this year (assuming they're good and playing well). The rest of the defense will likely be entirely different, and most of that will come through the draft.

If the current trajectory holds, Lamar, Andrews, and Stanley will be getting lucrative long term contracts.

Of the offensive players, I think Orlando Brown is the most likely to be the "odd man out". Assuming they sign Stanley long term, which I think they will, I don't think they'll be paying two tackles in excess of $18M a year at the same time. RT's are doing pretty good for themselves on the open market these days too, and it wouldn't surprise me to see a team spend big money on him. I would throw out a team like Miami, who has a left handed QB, as somebody to keep an eye on in two years as somebody who would have no problem breaking the bank for him.

Its possible they keep all 4, but paying market value to all of them and Peters and Humphrey at the same time could be problematic.

 

[JO_75]

Tonight would have been the start of the preseason. Boooooooooo

 

[ravenslord]

Anyone watch Hard Knocks. The amount of health safety precautions at training camp is through the roof.
Opening a water refrigerator with your foot is one of my favorites.

 

[Simba]

Anyone watch Hard Knocks. The amount of health safety precautions at training camp is through the roof.
Opening a water refrigerator with your foot is one of my favorites.

I couldn't imagine doing all of that daily. But if you pay me $10M I'm sure I can make it work.

 

[rossihunter2]

at this rate does anyone think its entirely possible that andrews ends up in an odd man out sort of situation? andrews is clearly a cornerstone type of player, but teams are paying TEs as if the cap isnt gonna stagnate or decrease, but it likely will in some way, and as much as we value the TE position its still obvious that stanley and lamar will come first, and it also feels obvious that when the day comes we are gonna prioritize hollywood over andrews as well, so if were keeping the future in mind when handing out contracts, andrews might fall short because of hollywoods potential looming extension. if TEs are getting paid like this i can totally imagine andrews just pricing himself out of reach for us.

i dont think hollywood's contract will affect andrews because it could be 2 years later than andrews...
we'll see what happens of course and the TE market is really difficult to predict at the best of times and now it's even harder but i doubt we pay 2 TEs top dollar and we're already paying boyle but it might be that the money not used on boyle when his contract is up contributes to the mark andrews contract...

just hypothesising

the next 3 are clearly Lamar, Ronnie and Marlon

 

[UPennChem]

We're 1 month out. Is Clowney going to play this year?

 

[rossihunter2]

We're 1 month out. Is Clowney going to play this year?

you have to think he'll play for someone but the fact that he's not in camp is a bit unnerving in that regard

 

[RavensMania]

I’m content with being soft because we’d be forced to combine with the Washington Football Team and we don’t need that kind of negative energy around here.

no f'n way is that going to happen.

 

[Deebo813]

We're 1 month out. Is Clowney going to play this year?

I think he will! He would be crazy to sit out

 

[Dom McRaven]

Seahawks cut UDFA Kemah Siverand for trying to sneak a woman into team hotel. I'm sure it's lonely in the hotel and stuff but you trying to make this your career and you gave it all away already? Damn.



https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.c...nd-for-trying-to-sneak-woman-into-team-hotel/

He deserves to be cut for this stupidity.

 

[JO_75]

Mike Vrabel with the best response to the Seahawks player who tried to sneak a female in:

Mike Vrabel on the Seahawks player that tried to sneak a lady into the team hotel: My first thought is I hope she’s not the actual size of an NFL player. #Titans

 

[Ellicottraven]

We're 1 month out. Is Clowney going to play this year?

He'll eventually sign with the Browns is my fear...