2021 Post-Draft Discussion Thread

[rmcjacket23]

I agree. I am someone who uses facts, trends, and other data to come to a conclusion based on what the data suggests. Now data of course has outliers but understanding trends can help with effective decision making.

You seem to use more feelings/hopes to make decisions which makes such a discussion pointless, as shown by your response to the data showing what you did not like to suggest that the data itself must be wrong.

As we have a philosophical disagreement on the ideal way to come to a conclusion about an issue, the issue in question being "Is it a good thing to have a lot of rookie starters for the specific season in question?", any discussion on that matter would merely go around and around in circles and no consensus could possibly be reached as we use different criteria to come to that conclusion

Final note, I am not saying the rookies in question are worse than the players on the roster they are starting over, but having a bad position be less bad does not make that player average, hence why I would say in an ideal scenario you would not need rookie starters, but obviously the difficulty of managing a salary cap means you have to expect that not every position can be above average and some will be below average and those rookies typically are who you would hope to have occupy that space (as they tend to grow and it would mean that position is not a position of need in the draft).

I think its much more simpler than that. I think you're just using data to draw an invalid conclusion. I think if you studied the data (and I know the article you're referencing), you would realize that you couldn't draw the conclusion you're drawing from said data.

And the reason for that, as others have suggested, is a lack of context. That data is taking a rookie player and comparing him across the board to all other players at his position in the league. That, of course, doesn't work, because a single NFL team doesn't have an entire league-wide pool of players by which said rookie can compare to. They have a finite number of players under contract, and thus, shouldn't be compared to the entire population.

For example... Bateman doesn't need to be be above average, league-wide, in order to start on this team. He only needs to be better than the pool of receivers that this team has access to. How he "rates" compared to an entire league wide population really doesn't matter in this context.

 

[rmcjacket23]

The two biggest takeaways from me:
1. Obviously we must have really hated the OT market, because we came away with nothing. I understand we like a veteran or two that we can sign, but its a pretty big gamble to me to have Phillips as the swing. Depth at OT still a major concern for me.
2. Quite a bit surprised we didn't add some more youth to the Dline. Wasn't expecting it in the first few rounds, but thought we would add somebody to develop on day 3. Easily our oldest positional group, and its a positional group that figures to turnover pretty dramatically over 2021 (Campbell, Wolfe and BWill could easily all three be gone). Dline is going to be a big-time focus for the 2022 offseason most likely.

In the long-term, we're starting to see the "flip" between being defensive heavy in cap spend to offensive heavy in cap spend. Stanley got a contract, Lamar and Andrews are next, and I expect Bozeman to do pretty well also. Heavy investment in receivers through the draft.

I would expect the next year or two to take a much more "defensive" approach in the offseasons. Very old on the Dline, Corner is slowing becoming older and older (Humphrey is the "young one" of the group at like 25), and I don't think anybody thinks we've solved all of our pass rush issues.

The offense, with maybe an upgrade or two on the Oline needed, is about where it should be for the next 2-3 years at least. We should become more defensively focused in the offseason moving forward.

 

[Simba]

The two biggest takeaways from me:
1. Obviously we must have really hated the OT market, because we came away with nothing. I understand we like a veteran or two that we can sign, but its a pretty big gamble to me to have Phillips as the swing. Depth at OT still a major concern for me.
2. Quite a bit surprised we didn't add some more youth to the Dline. Wasn't expecting it in the first few rounds, but thought we would add somebody to develop on day 3. Easily our oldest positional group, and its a positional group that figures to turnover pretty dramatically over 2021 (Campbell, Wolfe and BWill could easily all three be gone). Dline is going to be a big-time focus for the 2022 offseason most likely.

In the long-term, we're starting to see the "flip" between being defensive heavy in cap spend to offensive heavy in cap spend. Stanley got a contract, Lamar and Andrews are next, and I expect Bozeman to do pretty well also. Heavy investment in receivers through the draft.

I would expect the next year or two to take a much more "defensive" approach in the offseasons. Very old on the Dline, Corner is slowing becoming older and older (Humphrey is the "young one" of the group at like 25), and I don't think anybody thinks we've solved all of our pass rush issues.

The offense, with maybe an upgrade or two on the Oline needed, is about where it should be for the next 2-3 years at least. We should become more defensively focused in the offseason moving forward.

We're definitely trending toward defensive drafts in upcoming years, but I'd even say we're headed toward the trenches and away from the skill positions a lot as well. C and OT are likely to be needs again next year. DL will need almost a complete overhaul. Edge will remain a need even if Oweh plays well in his rookie year. DB, TE, and maybe RB at a point are really the only skill positions needed in the coming years and I'm not sure you really need a high pick on the offensive side of the ball.

 

[rossihunter2]

The two biggest takeaways from me:
1. Obviously we must have really hated the OT market, because we came away with nothing. I understand we like a veteran or two that we can sign, but its a pretty big gamble to me to have Phillips as the swing. Depth at OT still a major concern for me.
2. Quite a bit surprised we didn't add some more youth to the Dline. Wasn't expecting it in the first few rounds, but thought we would add somebody to develop on day 3. Easily our oldest positional group, and its a positional group that figures to turnover pretty dramatically over 2021 (Campbell, Wolfe and BWill could easily all three be gone). Dline is going to be a big-time focus for the 2022 offseason most likely.

In the long-term, we're starting to see the "flip" between being defensive heavy in cap spend to offensive heavy in cap spend. Stanley got a contract, Lamar and Andrews are next, and I expect Bozeman to do pretty well also. Heavy investment in receivers through the draft.

I would expect the next year or two to take a much more "defensive" approach in the offseasons. Very old on the Dline, Corner is slowing becoming older and older (Humphrey is the "young one" of the group at like 25), and I don't think anybody thinks we've solved all of our pass rush issues.

The offense, with maybe an upgrade or two on the Oline needed, is about where it should be for the next 2-3 years at least. We should become more defensively focused in the offseason moving forward.

im surprised we didnt add a tackle anywhere but also worth noting that the run mid-to-late 2nd round and into the early 3rd basically obliterated the depth at tackle before we had a chance to pick in the 3rd round - my guess is they didnt like the tackles left at that point (beyond maybe a couple of developmental ones - at least one good developmental guy went before we picked in R4) but there were still IOL with starting potential available hence the Ben Cleveland pick

im not surprised about the lack of a DT - this is the worst DL class i've ever seen - and it turns out it was even weaker than i thought because one of the better ones had maturity/character issues that made him drop by about 3-4 rounds...

we picked up 3 DBs (2 drafted and 1 udfa) who could factor into that equation (obviously too early to tell for sure) but clearly a position they attacked in a pretty strong class for DBs generally - they may all flame out but they got upside guys to hopefully hit on someone to alleviate some of those concerns for the future as well as hopefully adding some versatility to the defense this year... hopefully....

 

[rossihunter2]

We're definitely trending toward defensive drafts in upcoming years, but I'd even say we're headed toward the trenches and away from the skill positions a lot as well. C and OT are likely to be needs again next year. DL will need almost a complete overhaul. Edge will remain a need even if Oweh plays well in his rookie year. DB, TE, and maybe RB at a point are really the only skill positions needed in the coming years and I'm not sure you really need a high pick on the offensive side of the ball.

i think the aim is going to be not to end up in the situation we were in at the beginning of this offseason with absolutely nothing left on the edge

that's why we'll almost always draft at least 1 corner (we didn't in 2020 but that was against recent form - and this year we drafted 2)

at least we know we've got at least 1 young DL with talent in Madubuike who looks like he could be an exciting piece there - but i imagine you're both right that DL will be somewhat of a focus next offseason

i do agree that we're likely to see more draft capital spent on defence but i do think that the ultimate aim of this front office is to get into a position where they're mostly drafting most of these positions each year: DL, OL, CB/DB, EDGE, WR

we're at our healthiest when we're constantly restocking - it means that each draft pick is less pressured but also means each position is always being restocked with a potential new young rookie cheap piece - obviously it's not reasonable to suggest we get there but that's the aim i think

 

[Simba]

i think the aim is going to be not to end up in the situation we were in at the beginning of this offseason with absolutely nothing left on the edge

that's why we'll almost always draft at least 1 corner (we didn't in 2020 but that was against recent form - and this year we drafted 2)

at least we know we've got at least 1 young DL with talent in Madubuike who looks like he could be an exciting piece there - but i imagine you're both right that DL will be somewhat of a focus next offseason

i do agree that we're likely to see more draft capital spent on defence but i do think that the ultimate aim of this front office is to get into a position where they're mostly drafting most of these positions each year: DL, OL, CB/DB, EDGE, WR

we're at our healthiest when we're constantly restocking - it means that each draft pick is less pressured but also means each position is always being restocked with a potential new young rookie cheap piece - obviously it's not reasonable to suggest we get there but that's the aim i think

And it helps capitalize on value instead of constantly plugging away at holes. It's never going to be perfect of course. Like, I know we probably wanted to hit DL at some point over the weekend, but the value elsewhere was too good and that's okay. You can adapt and adjust at other spots if you keep on trend with kind of hitting the key positions over and over on a yearly basis.

 

[ndub]

100% he's gonna be used on stunts all the time - maybe not even always to get him free - might just be used as the force player and told to just crash down and create carnage inside for a looping madubuike or someone like that...

And you know what NOBODY’S talking about??? The fact he cares about DISRUPTION, not exactly SACK numbers. He would be absolutely PERFECT in that role

 

[rossihunter2]

And you know what NOBODY’S talking about??? The fact he cares about DISRUPTION, not exactly SACK numbers. He would be absolutely PERFECT in that role

i want him to spend a lot of time with pernell mcphee this offseason for 2 reasons - i want him to learn how to use his hands in both phases - but i also want him to learn the value of the destruction you can cause by being an unbridled weapon of chaos

 

[rossihunter2]

And it helps capitalize on value instead of constantly plugging away at holes. It's never going to be perfect of course. Like, I know we probably wanted to hit DL at some point over the weekend, but the value elsewhere was too good and that's okay. You can adapt and adjust at other spots if you keep on trend with kind of hitting the key positions over and over on a yearly basis.

averett and marshall are good examples - it doesnt matter that we missed with iman because we hit with AA and spent a 5th rounder on MP
the issue at DL is that we've missed a few times in a row going back a few years - and 1 of the few hits we let go and he landed elsewhere...

15: Carl Davis
16: Kaufusi and Henry
17: Wormley
18: Sieler (hit but he went to the dolphins before we got any decent play out of him)
19: Mack

until we picked Madubuke - but even so it looks like Washington possibly might not make it (because of those legal issues) - that's why the position feels thin - because Sieler got picked up elsewhere and because we've missed just slightly too often - those 3 day 2 misses in a row from 15-17 did not help at all...

 

[ndub]

averett and marshall are good examples - it doesnt matter that we missed with iman because we hit with AA and spent a 5th rounder on MP
the issue at DL is that we've missed a few times in a row going back a few years - and 1 of the few hits we let go and he landed elsewhere...

15: Carl Davis
16: Kaufusi and Henry
17: Wormley
18: Sieler (hit but he went to the dolphins before we got any decent play out of him)
19: Mack

until we picked Madubuke - but even so it looks like Washington possibly might not make it (because of those legal issues) - that's why the position feels thin - because Sieler got picked up elsewhere and because we've missed just slightly too often - those 3 day 2 misses in a row from 15-17 did not help at all...[/QUOT

averett and marshall are good examples - it doesnt matter that we missed with iman because we hit with AA and spent a 5th rounder on MP
the issue at DL is that we've missed a few times in a row going back a few years - and 1 of the few hits we let go and he landed elsewhere...

15: Carl Davis
16: Kaufusi and Henry
17: Wormley
18: Sieler (hit but he went to the dolphins before we got any decent play out of him)
19: Mack

until we picked Madubuke - but even so it looks like Washington possibly might not make it (because of those legal issues) - that's why the position feels thin - because Sieler got picked up elsewhere and because we've missed just slightly too often - those 3 day 2 misses in a row from 15-17 did not help at all...

Wait, who’s Mack?

 

[rmcjacket23]

Wait, who’s Mack?

Daylon Mack.

Taken by the Ravens in the 5th round in 2019. Was cut in August 2020.

He was on 5 different teams in 2020 at one point. Signed a futures contract with Tennessee in January.

Edit: how's this for the life of a fringe NFL player:

8/1/20: waived by the Ravens
8/2/20: signed by the Lions
8/7/20: waived by Lions with failed physical
8/17/20: signed by Giants
9/5/20: waived by Giants
9/10/20: signed by Packers to practice squad
9/16/20: released by Packers
11/24/20: signed by Cardinals to practice squad
12/21/20: released by Cardinals
1/14/21: signed by Titans to reserve/futures contract

 

[ndub]

Daylon Mack.

Taken by the Ravens in the 5th round in 2019. Was cut in August 2020.

He was on 5 different teams in 2020 at one point. Signed a futures contract with Tennessee in January.

Edit: how's this for the life of a fringe NFL player:

8/1/20: waived by the Ravens
8/2/20: signed by the Lions
8/7/20: waived by Lions with failed physical
8/17/20: signed by Giants
9/5/20: waived by Giants
9/10/20: signed by Packers to practice squad
9/16/20: released by Packers
11/24/20: signed by Cardinals to practice squad
12/21/20: released by Cardinals
1/14/21: signed by Titans to reserve/futures contract

Got it!

 

[QuothTheRaven]

Interesting tidbit.

 

[RavensMania]

 

[rossihunter2]

we'll see - personally i'd wanna see oweh in the 50s - think 53, 56 and 59 are the only open ones though - but i guess 1 could be cool too

hayes as 99 makes a ton of sense - wore 9 in college, potentially replacing judon...

wade in 29 makes sense too

the others im guessing are completely random lol

 

[Adreme]

I think its much more simpler than that. I think you're just using data to draw an invalid conclusion. I think if you studied the data (and I know the article you're referencing), you would realize that you couldn't draw the conclusion you're drawing from said data.

And the reason for that, as others have suggested, is a lack of context. That data is taking a rookie player and comparing him across the board to all other players at his position in the league. That, of course, doesn't work, because a single NFL team doesn't have an entire league-wide pool of players by which said rookie can compare to. They have a finite number of players under contract, and thus, shouldn't be compared to the entire population.

For example... Bateman doesn't need to be be above average, league-wide, in order to start on this team. He only needs to be better than the pool of receivers that this team has access to. How he "rates" compared to an entire league wide population really doesn't matter in this context.

Except that is not the point I am making. The point I am making is that if you have a lot of rookies starting, it means that, on average, you have a lot of below average starters. Saying Bateman could be, and hopefully is, better than Boykin and therefore the starter, does not mean he is an above-average receiver. My argument is simply that it is not a good thing to have a lot of rookies starting because on average it means you have a lot of below-average starters.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

If oweh wears 1 I’m gonna boycott his drafting, I won’t acknowledge him as a member of this team

 

[RavensMania]

If oweh wears 1 I’m gonna boycott his drafting, I won’t acknowledge him as a member of this team

lol, that's ridiculous

 

[JoeyFlex5]

we'll see - personally i'd wanna see oweh in the 50s - think 53, 56 and 59 are the only open ones though - but i guess 1 could be cool too

hayes as 99 makes a ton of sense - wore 9 in college, potentially replacing judon...

wade in 29 makes sense too

the others im guessing are completely random lol

I want oweh wearing his college number. Let’s jump right in with this new number rule. Also wanna see Hollywood in 5, duvernay in 6, dobbins or Wallace in 2, Bateman in 13, Elliott in 4. Madubuike and Harrison can’t have their old numbers though, madubuike for obvious reasons and Harrison because 39 looks ugly af

 

[JoeyFlex5]

lol, that's ridiculous

Is it though?