The Good, The Bad and The Ugly - Bengals Edition

[UPennChem]

Probably the fact that Stone was the starter once Williams was out lol

It may be the case that Stone is the new starter, but what happened in game has almost nothing to do with that decision. Stone had practiced the gameplan at FS, Hamilton did not. Going forward whoever practices at FS will be the starter. I still feel like it will be Stone, but it very well could be Hamilton.

 

[Tank]

Back to back games where Lamar looked erratic for long stretches. Not sure what’s up with that, but a great drive to finish the game. Curious to see if DeCosta gets him some WR help by the trade deadline.

While it would be great to pick up another WR I doubt that’s the key to solving Lamar’s issues.

 

[Tank]

It may be the case that Stone is the new starter, but what happened in game has almost nothing to do with that decision. Stone had practiced the gameplan at FS, Hamilton did not. Going forward whoever practices at FS will be the starter. I still feel like it will be Stone, but it very well could be Hamilton.

I think we’ve seen Hamilton needs a bit of time to build his confidence and reach his potential so at this juncture I doubt they make him the guy. Add in Geno’s quality play and that makes it seem a pretty easy decision.

 

[UPennChem]

While it would be great to pick up another WR I doubt that’s the key to solving Lamar’s issues.

I noticed pretty obviously that Stanley was doing a significantly better job protecting than Mekari. Most of the offensive success happened when he was in the game. I think it was just sort of a recipe for disaster having Mekari trying to stop Hendrickson and Duvernay being the only receiver Lamar is comfortable with at the same time.

 

[UPennChem]

I think we’ve seen Hamilton needs a bit of time to build his confidence and reach his potential so at this juncture I doubt they make him the guy. Add in Geno’s quality play and that makes it seem a pretty easy decision.

That's why I also think it's stone, I'm just saying it's not already been decided

 

[RavensMania]

Damn. I have a feeling Marcus is done for the season

I think it could be 8 weeks

 

[RavensMania]

Just to be clear on the analytics side... the analytics said kick the FG in that spot. It wasn't John going against what the analytics said. It was John doing what the analytics said. Though conceding it was basically a "toss up" in terms of win% outcomes.

Ironically, the one time that John went against analytics, was when Tucker kicked the 58 yarder earlier. Analytics favored going for it in that instance.

not saying I disagree, because I don't. I am almost always ok going for the 1st down, but agreed with the 58 yard fg.

Please explain why you think analytics said to kick the fg and go for it in those instances.

 

[RavensMania]

Yeah I said this last night. Guessing because there was 9+ minutes left and the likelihood we would get the ball back down by 3 or less changed the numbers. And I’m sure “normal numbers” fell against a 58 yarder at The Bank as it’s infamously a tough place to kick, but then there is Tuck.

yes, the Bank is one of the more difficult places to kick a 50+ yard fg. I believe the Steelers stadium is also a difficult place to kick long fgs.

 

[D1City55]

Lamar was off yesterday. Don’t know why but he was woefully inaccurate. Missed 3 wide open deep balls. That throw to Wallace was off by a mile too, one of the things he got better was his touch on the deep ball but this game specifically he lacked touch on those throws.

 

[rmcjacket23]

not saying I disagree, because I don't. I am almost always ok going for the 1st down, but agreed with the 58 yard fg.

Please explain why you think analytics said to kick the fg and go for it in those instances.

There is a "bot" on Twitter that provides real time analytics for decision making.



now, the caveat is that these analytics, I assume, are taking into account basically league averages over a long period of time, i.e. they're assigning only a 41% success rate to a FG attempt from that distance. I would imagine this particular model doesn't take into account the actual kicker or conditions.

But I candidly haven't researched the limitations of this particular model.

 

[ndub]

There is a "bot" on Twitter that provides real time analytics for decision making.

See that’s where analytics is a bunch of bullshit. It doesn’t take into account that Tucker isn’t an ordinary kicker and that he can drill it from that distance much more than the average kicker can

 

[BoredMarine13]

While it would be great to pick up another WR I doubt that’s the key to solving Lamar’s issues.

What’s the key? He had some bad throws for sure , and Roman had to get really creative yesterday to keep our offense on schedule. Feels like our skill players aren’t winning their match ups enough.

 

[RavensMania]

See that’s where analytics is a bunch of bullshit. It doesn’t take into account that Tucker isn’t an ordinary kicker and that he can drill it from that distance much more than the average kicker can

and a lot of kickers have a strong leg nowadays. I understand not wanting to punt it, but I was definitely for kicking the FG on that drive. Late in the game I was kind of indifferent. I would have liked to put the game away with a touchdown, but not having much success lately I was cool just kicking it as well. Situational football isn't Roman's strong suit.

 

[Militant X 1]

Folks are foolish if they are overlooking the G-Men. Lamar hasn't been great this and last week. I would hope the return of Gus will help things out, but I'm starting to worry that he'll cool down for his amazing start to the season.

No one should be overlooking the Giants, especially THIS Ravens team that's "ify" at best.

 

[RavensMania]

No one should be overlooking the Giants, especially THIS Ravens team that's "ify" at best.

agree, we can't overlook them.

 

[rmcjacket23]

See that’s where analytics is a bunch of bullshit. It doesn’t take into account that Tucker isn’t an ordinary kicker and that he can drill it from that distance much more than the average kicker can

Sure, but fans also think he's like 90% kicker from that distance. He's not historically. He's a lot higher than 40% to make it, but he's a lot lower than 90% to make it also.

I'm kicking there because its 4 yards. If it were a yard or two, I guarantee John doesn't kick.

Besides, analytics is a baseline for decisions, not the be-all, end-all. If he literally took the analytics at face value, then he would be kicking a hell of a lot less than he does, because kicking league-wide sucks balls.

If analytics say that there's like a 20% deviation in expected win % for a decision, then there's an obvious course of action. If it's very close, like in this example, then it would boil down to how good your kicker is, weather conditions, game flow, etc.

I'd also point out that when the Ravens decided to NOT go for it on 4th and 1, take the delay of game, and then kick the FG, the analytics model, surprisingly, was largely indifferent on that decision.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Sure, but fans also think he's like 90% kicker from that distance. He's not historically. He's a lot higher than 40% to make it, but he's a lot lower than 90% to make it also.

I'm kicking there because its 4 yards. If it were a yard or two, I guarantee John doesn't kick.

Besides, analytics is a baseline for decisions, not the be-all, end-all. If he literally took the analytics at face value, then he would be kicking a hell of a lot less than he does, because kicking league-wide sucks balls.

If analytics say that there's like a 20% deviation in expected win % for a decision, then there's an obvious course of action. If it's very close, like in this example, then it would boil down to how good your kicker is, weather conditions, game flow, etc.

I'd also point out that when the Ravens decided to NOT go for it on 4th and 1, take the delay of game, and then kick the FG, the analytics model, surprisingly, was largely indifferent on that decision.

I'd also point out that, since the ignorant public thinks "o John learned from last week to take the points", there's a GIGANTIC difference in strategy this week compared to last. Namely, time on the clock. John pretty much knows that, if he kicks the FG in this spot (with like close to 10 minutes left in the game), he's 100% getting at least one more possession, and worst case scenario, he gets the ball back down a maximum of 1 point. That's a very different strategy and mindset than what happened in the Bills game.

People think analytics just says "o you're only a yard or two away... just go for it all the time". No, that's not how analytics works. At all. I'd be willing to bet that IF the Ravens had that same decision, but there's, say, 3-4 minutes left on the clock, I think John goes for it there. I don't think he takes the delay of game and kicks the FG.

 

[ndub]

I'd also point out that, since the ignorant public thinks "o John learned from last week to take the points", there's a GIGANTIC difference in strategy this week compared to last. Namely, time on the clock. John pretty much knows that, if he kicks the FG in this spot (with like close to 10 minutes left in the game), he's 100% getting at least one more possession, and worst case scenario, he gets the ball back down a maximum of 1 point. That's a very different strategy and mindset than what happened in the Bills game.

People think analytics just says "o you're only a yard or two away... just go for it all the time". No, that's not how analytics works. At all. I'd be willing to bet that IF the Ravens had that same decision, but there's, say, 3-4 minutes left on the clock, I think John goes for it there. I don't think he takes the delay of game and kicks the FG.

Harbaugh is a fantastic coach. Top 3 in the NFL

 

[RavensMania]

Sure, but fans also think he's like 90% kicker from that distance. He's not historically. He's a lot higher than 40% to make it, but he's a lot lower than 90% to make it also.

I'm kicking there because its 4 yards. If it were a yard or two, I guarantee John doesn't kick.

Besides, analytics is a baseline for decisions, not the be-all, end-all. If he literally took the analytics at face value, then he would be kicking a hell of a lot less than he does, because kicking league-wide sucks balls.

If analytics say that there's like a 20% deviation in expected win % for a decision, then there's an obvious course of action. If it's very close, like in this example, then it would boil down to how good your kicker is, weather conditions, game flow, etc.

I'd also point out that when the Ravens decided to NOT go for it on 4th and 1, take the delay of game, and then kick the FG, the analytics model, surprisingly, was largely indifferent on that decision.

NFL.com only goes back to 2018 and has Justin Tucker kicking 19 fgs of 50-59 yards. He's made 17 of those kicks, thus that is 89%.

ESPN shows his entire careers 50+ yard kicks (including 60+). He has made 52 of 70 kicks and that is 74%. I'm not sure analytics is taking into account having a kicker that is as accurate as Justin Tucker is on these long fg's. I believe in analytics, but it's not the be all end all.

 

[Militant X 1]

Bengals forum arguing amongst themselves over who is to blame the offence or defence. Thankfully we don't have such silly arguments.

Good! Let those bums implode!