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The 2023 Offseason Thread

Adreme said:
Um which ones? This was the first year of Mahomes contract and he was 35m cap hit. Dak who had a 40m contract had a 20m cap hit. Rodgers was 50m and 28 (so basically the tag). Allen's does not start until this year and his is 35 on 43 AAV. I think the only team to try and make the cap hit was small as possible was the Browns and imitating the Browns seems like a stupid idea considering the Browns are champions when it comes to snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
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They're completely different situations though. Most of those players were on existing contracts when they signed, so they are extensions. Lamar isn't.
If you extend a guy who's still on his rookie deal, you pay the signing bonus during his rookie deal, but prorate it longer. Ravens don't have that luxury.

Regardless, they won't put a first year cap hit at more than probably $30M. They just don't have the cap space to do that. There's plenty of people who don't think they have the cap space to even do the exclusive tag, so there's no way they're going to go much heavier than that.

Plus every team knows the cap increases are coming, and they're coming big, in the next few years. So even if his 2024 cap hit jumps from $25M to $40-45M, which it probably will, the cap is going to rise by probably at least that amount, and maybe more.

Would also note that many of the guys you listed won't be playing 2023 on those cap hits either. Watson isn't going to play 2023 on a $55M cap hit. It'll be $40M or less. Dak isn't going to play 2023 with a $49M cap hit. I'd bet he might even get an extension out of it. Mahomes unlikely to play 2023 at a $47M cap hit. Think Josh Allen will reduce his also.
 
rmcjacket23 said:
They're completely different situations though. Most of those players were on existing contracts when they signed, so they are extensions. Lamar isn't.
If you extend a guy who's still on his rookie deal, you pay the signing bonus during his rookie deal, but prorate it longer. Ravens don't have that luxury.

Regardless, they won't put a first year cap hit at more than probably $30M. They just don't have the cap space to do that. There's plenty of people who don't think they have the cap space to even do the exclusive tag, so there's no way they're going to go much heavier than that.

Plus every team knows the cap increases are coming, and they're coming big, in the next few years. So even if his 2024 cap hit jumps from $25M to $40-45M, which it probably will, the cap is going to rise by probably at least that amount, and maybe more.

Would also note that many of the guys you listed won't be playing 2023 on those cap hits either. Watson isn't going to play 2023 on a $55M cap hit. It'll be $40M or less. Dak isn't going to play 2023 with a $49M cap hit. I'd bet he might even get an extension out of it. Mahomes unlikely to play 2023 at a $47M cap hit. Think Josh Allen will reduce his also.
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Dak is literally the exact same situation and yes both will reduce it to around half of their AAV or in Mahomes case probably 75% again. With Lamar likely to get upwards of 50m AAV that puts you between 25-35m cap hit which simply does not leave you enough money to trade for DHop which was my original point.
 
Adreme said:
Dak is literally the exact same situation and yes both will reduce it to around half of their AAV or in Mahomes case probably 75% again. With Lamar likely to get upwards of 50m AAV that puts you between 25-35m cap hit which simply does not leave you enough money to trade for DHop which was my original point.
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Right, but in Dak's situation, he signed a 4 year extension in 2021 for $40M/year, but his cap hits in the first two years were less than $20M each. So it can be done.

I'm not sure if trading for DHop is feasible or not. Under his current contract, probably not. But I'd presume there's an extension there.

Realistically, if Lamar's cap hit is even $30M, they'll have the ability to get to ~$20M in cap space for FA. That's sufficient cap $ to sign or trade for literally anybody who's not a QB, assuming you can get the contract structure to work. You probably need more than that, because that would be allocating your entire FA budget to one player, which the Ravens won't do.

But Hopkins is one example. Guys like Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, Michael Thomas, etc. are very likely to be available via trade or FA, and they wouldn't have the contract baggage Hopkins does. If the Ravens get Lamar on a new deal vs the tag, there's no reason they couldn't sign any one of those players if they were available.
 
rmcjacket23 said:
Right, but in Dak's situation, he signed a 4 year extension in 2021 for $40M/year, but his cap hits in the first two years were less than $20M each. So it can be done.

I'm not sure if trading for DHop is feasible or not. Under his current contract, probably not. But I'd presume there's an extension there.

Realistically, if Lamar's cap hit is even $30M, they'll have the ability to get to ~$20M in cap space for FA. That's sufficient cap $ to sign or trade for literally anybody who's not a QB, assuming you can get the contract structure to work. You probably need more than that, because that would be allocating your entire FA budget to one player, which the Ravens won't do.

But Hopkins is one example. Guys like Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, Michael Thomas, etc. are very likely to be available via trade or FA, and they wouldn't have the contract baggage Hopkins does. If the Ravens get Lamar on a new deal vs the tag, there's no reason they couldn't sign any one of those players if they were available.
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Yea, but that isn't great for us
 
RavensMania said:
and how reputable is this...
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I mean even if its not, it makes 1000% sense. How can the Ravens guarantee Lamar is back? They can't. Even if they're willing to commit the exclusive tag to him (which again, there's plenty of people who don't see that viable for any sort of successful season), there's no guarantee he even agrees to play on it.

Ain't no scenario in the world where the Ravens can definitively say today Lamar is going to be there this year. It's highly probable he is, but they don't entirely control it. Not to mention if some franchise comes to them with a franchise-altering level of draft picks, and we're far enough apart from Lamar on negotiations, we pretty much have to entertain it.
 
rmcjacket23 said:
I mean even if its not, it makes 1000% sense. How can the Ravens guarantee Lamar is back? They can't. Even if they're willing to commit the exclusive tag to him (which again, there's plenty of people who don't see that viable for any sort of successful season), there's no guarantee he even agrees to play on it.

Ain't no scenario in the world where the Ravens can definitively say today Lamar is going to be there this year. It's highly probable he is, but they don't entirely control it. Not to mention if some franchise comes to them with a franchise-altering level of draft picks, and we're far enough apart from Lamar on negotiations, we pretty much have to entertain it.
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Yeah, they can't guarantee shit. Even lamar can't guarantee
 
rmcjacket23 said:
I mean even if its not, it makes 1000% sense. How can the Ravens guarantee Lamar is back? They can't. Even if they're willing to commit the exclusive tag to him (which again, there's plenty of people who don't see that viable for any sort of successful season), there's no guarantee he even agrees to play on it.

Ain't no scenario in the world where the Ravens can definitively say today Lamar is going to be there this year. It's highly probable he is, but they don't entirely control it. Not to mention if some franchise comes to them with a franchise-altering level of draft picks, and we're far enough apart from Lamar on negotiations, we pretty much have to entertain it.
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ok, I guess that's very true.
 
rmcjacket23 said:
Right, but in Dak's situation, he signed a 4 year extension in 2021 for $40M/year, but his cap hits in the first two years were less than $20M each. So it can be done.

I'm not sure if trading for DHop is feasible or not. Under his current contract, probably not. But I'd presume there's an extension there.

Realistically, if Lamar's cap hit is even $30M, they'll have the ability to get to ~$20M in cap space for FA. That's sufficient cap $ to sign or trade for literally anybody who's not a QB, assuming you can get the contract structure to work. You probably need more than that, because that would be allocating your entire FA budget to one player, which the Ravens won't do.

But Hopkins is one example. Guys like Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, Michael Thomas, etc. are very likely to be available via trade or FA, and they wouldn't have the contract baggage Hopkins does. If the Ravens get Lamar on a new deal vs the tag, there's no reason they couldn't sign any one of those players if they were available.
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They could but they would still need about 5-6m to sign draft picks (depending on how the inevitable trades go) and if they go this route there is a gaping hole at corner for instance which again makes it difficult to be going in on one free agent. It simply is cost prohibitive to sign both Lamar and trade for DHop.
 
Adreme said:
They could but they would still need about 5-6m to sign draft picks (depending on how the inevitable trades go) and if they go this route there is a gaping hole at corner for instance which again makes it difficult to be going in on one free agent. It simply is cost prohibitive to sign both Lamar and trade for DHop.
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Again... depends. What is Hopkins cap number for this year going to be if it happens?
If you assume it's the $19.45M salary we'd be inheriting, then yes, its prohibitive.

Given that he only has two years left on his deal, a trade to the Ravens would pretty much warrant an immediate restructure or extension. The latter being most likely. Any first year cap hit for him would probably be $8-10M or so.

And again, Hopkins isn't the guy I would be proponent of, mostly because I don't want to give up the trade assets for him. I think there will be others available in FA that would be potentially cheaper.
 
rmcjacket23 said:
Again... depends. What is Hopkins cap number for this year going to be if it happens?
If you assume it's the $19.45M salary we'd be inheriting, then yes, its prohibitive.

Given that he only has two years left on his deal, a trade to the Ravens would pretty much warrant an immediate restructure or extension. The latter being most likely. Any first year cap hit for him would probably be $8-10M or so.

And again, Hopkins isn't the guy I would be proponent of, mostly because I don't want to give up the trade assets for him. I think there will be others available in FA that would be potentially cheaper.
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like DJ Chark
 
Davesta said:
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This right here has me a feeling a certain way. Adaptable? Works with personnel?

faint-fainting.gif
 
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