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Lamar Jackson

QtR Nevermore said:
That's what the Ravens are betting on, but Lamar is much closer to Free Agency than any of those guys, so they can afford to be patient. I would expect that the NFLPA and the players' own agents are advising Hurts, Burrow and Herbert to let the Lamar situation play out before signing anything, because its only going to help them.

Draft night is probably the deadline for the Ravens and Lamar - he'll probably get a fully guaranteed deal (or close to it) from some team around that time. Then the other QBs can all line up for their own versions. By waiting, the other QBs won't even need to risk playing next season without a long term deal, because it'll likely all be wrapped up by then.

I think the Ravens are wishing and hoping another QB will help them out by signing a team-friendly deal but I don't think it's going to happen.
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Totally disagree on the first paragraph. I don't think they're related at all.
For starters, Hurts is scheduled to make $4.3M this year, and his agents #1 job is going to be how to get his client 10x that amount of $ this year. He's not worried about AAV or any of that, because even if he lands incrementally $2-3M more in AAV by waiting a year, that's like $30-40M less in his pocket this year. Hurts agent already knows he's not getting a fully gtd deal (with or without Lamar signing one) and his priority is to get his client a boat load of cash this year.

Herbert and Burrow can potentially wait a little longer, because they've got 5th year options that'll be exercised, so they're at least going to get gigantic pay increases starting in 2024 anyway. But similarly, most of these agents don't want their clients to be woefully underpaid for four straight years, and the incremental gain from waiting isn't going to be that great for them.

If the NFLPA is actively pushing these star players to delay signing long term contracts in the hopes of massive $ spikes, they're total morons and they really need to be better educated. The sooner they sign huge extensions, the sooner they'll be able to renegotiate and sign another huge extension in the future.

Hurts can make $4M this year or he can make $40M this year on a $45-50M contract with a ton of guaranteed money. If he declines and "waits it out", he'll get maybe one additional year of guaranteed money, at MAYBE a 10% AAV increase. He's still $36M in the hole. He won't recover that.
Agents know this.
 
Willbacker said:
https://overthecap.com/calculator/cleveland-browns

You want to slit our throats? Look at the cap situation of the Browns. No outs even in the final year 2026. Then look at the Chiefs,Bills and Broncos. All have outs. The proof is in the pudding. Just look. Bisciotti and no other owner will do this.
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You're slitting your own throat much more deeply if you give up on a top QB for no reason.

Like I've said a few times, Lamar will get what he wants from some team, then Watson's deal will become the norm, Burrow, Hurts and Herbert will get similar and then all the Ravens fans who were railing against guarantees will pretend they never said anything.

Why do we needs outs anyway? Only a couple of big QB contracts in the last decade or so have really hurt the team that gave them out. Other positions have a much lower hit rate.
 
rmcjacket23 said:
Totally disagree on the first paragraph. I don't think they're related at all.
For starters, Hurts is scheduled to make $4.3M this year, and his agents #1 job is going to be how to get his client 10x that amount of $ this year. He's not worried about AAV or any of that, because even if he lands incrementally $2-3M more in AAV by waiting a year, that's like $30-40M less in his pocket this year. Hurts agent already knows he's not getting a fully gtd deal (with or without Lamar signing one) and his priority is to get his client a boat load of cash this year.

Herbert and Burrow can potentially wait a little longer, because they've got 5th year options that'll be exercised, so they're at least going to get gigantic pay increases starting in 2024 anyway. But similarly, most of these agents don't want their clients to be woefully underpaid for four straight years, and the incremental gain from waiting isn't going to be that great for them.

If the NFLPA is actively pushing these star players to delay signing long term contracts in the hopes of massive $ spikes, they're total morons and they really need to be better educated. The sooner they sign huge extensions, the sooner they'll be able to renegotiate and sign another huge extension in the future.

Hurts can make $4M this year or he can make $40M this year on a $45-50M contract with a ton of guaranteed money. If he declines and "waits it out", he'll get maybe one additional year of guaranteed money, at MAYBE a 10% AAV increase. He's still $36M in the hole. He won't recover that.
Agents know this.
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I never said Hurts needs to wait until after this season to sign. Why would he? He just needs to wait until after the draft, which is a big decision point for Lamar and the Ravens. Then he can show the Eagles whatever Lamar got (from the Ravens or, more likely, another team, sadly) as a starting point.

The same applies to Burrow and Herbert.
 
QtR Nevermore said:
You're slitting your own throat much more deeply if you give up on a top QB for no reason.

Like I've said a few times, Lamar will get what he wants from some team, then Watson's deal will become the norm, Burrow, Hurts and Herbert will get similar and then all the Ravens fans who were railing against guarantees will pretend they never said anything.

Why do we needs outs anyway? Only a couple of big QB contracts in the last decade or so have really hurt the team that gave them out. Other positions have a much lower hit rate.
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How did Seattle do? Who got the better out of that deal? No I dont want to guarantee Lamar a higher salary than Watson and put us in cap hell and tbh the Broncos are only in short term cap hell. Damn sure can't say that about the Browns. Did you even take the time and look at the link?
 
QtR Nevermore said:
You're slitting your own throat much more deeply if you give up on a top QB for no reason.

Like I've said a few times, Lamar will get what he wants from some team, then Watson's deal will become the norm, Burrow, Hurts and Herbert will get similar and then all the Ravens fans who were railing against guarantees will pretend they never said anything.

Why do we needs outs anyway? Only a couple of big QB contracts in the last decade or so have really hurt the team that gave them out. Other positions have a much lower hit rate.
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He is literally gonna lose all his athleticism in 4 years
 
QtR Nevermore said:
I never said Hurts needs to wait until after this season to sign. Why would he? He just needs to wait until after the draft, which is a big decision point for Lamar and the Ravens. Then he can show the Eagles whatever Lamar got (from the Ravens or, more likely, another team, sadly) as a starting point.

The same applies to Burrow and Herbert.
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Right but I also don't think the Ravens are trading Lamar this year anyway, so I don't think them waiting really means much. Plus its like two months away, which isn't a long period of time.

Plus I'm not sure that Herbert or Hurts would necessarily match or exceed what Lamar gets to begin with.
 
Willbacker said:
How did Seattle do? Who got the better out of that deal? No I dont want to guarantee Lamar a higher salary than Watson and put us in cap hell and tbh the Broncos are only in short term cap hell. Damn sure can't say that about the Browns. Did you even take the time and look at the link?
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Seattle are a great example that, if you have a QB who was top 10, some team is always going to think they can make it work. Seattle got 2 firsts, 2 seconds and players for a declining QB. Philly got a 1st and a 3rd for Wentz, who was awful.

The Browns aren't in 'cap hell' - they're only slightly over the cap for the next 2 seasons. They've got a big QB contract to work around because that's what they chose to do. If Rapey Watson returns to the player he was, I don't think they'll regret the football side of the deal. The moral side is a different story.

They've got a QB under contract for $46 M - that's not a disaster. In fact, if the Ravens lose Lamar, chances are Cleveland will have a better next 5 years than us.
 
QtR Nevermore said:
You're slitting your own throat much more deeply if you give up on a top QB for no reason.

Like I've said a few times, Lamar will get what he wants from some team, then Watson's deal will become the norm, Burrow, Hurts and Herbert will get similar and then all the Ravens fans who were railing against guarantees will pretend they never said anything.

Why do we needs outs anyway? Only a couple of big QB contracts in the last decade or so have really hurt the team that gave them out. Other positions have a much lower hit rate.
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OK. And I think the second paragraph is what's literally not going to happen.

The Owner wants "outs" because he doesn't want to pay $ to people that aren't performing. You're looking at it purely from a cap or fan perspective, which is probably the absolute wrong way to look at a situation like this.

As you've already said, you don't think being able to have an "out" for one year is significant. I feel very confidently that the person writing the checks may have a completely different view point on that. Not even Billionaires are that cavalier with $50M. Its easy for fans to be, because fans are just spending somebody else's $.
 
rmcjacket23 said:
Right but I also don't think the Ravens are trading Lamar this year anyway, so I don't think them waiting really means much. Plus its like two months away, which isn't a long period of time.

Plus I'm not sure that Herbert or Hurts would necessarily match or exceed what Lamar gets to begin with.
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Maybe not Herbert, but Hurts and Burrow have been to a Super Bowl. If they wait until after Lamar, they could very reasonably make his deal the starting point.
 
QtR Nevermore said:
Maybe not Herbert, but Hurts and Burrow have been to a Super Bowl. If they wait until after Lamar, they could very reasonably make his deal the starting point.
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Burrow yes, I think he'll be the highest paid QB in the league no matter when he signed.
Hurts sure, but Lamar also has an MVP. I'd view them comparable, but I think Hurts signs first anyway, so it'll probably be a moot point.
 
QtR Nevermore said:
Seattle are a great example that, if you have a QB who was top 10, some team is always going to think they can make it work. Seattle got 2 firsts, 2 seconds and players for a declining QB. Philly got a 1st and a 3rd for Wentz, who was awful.

The Browns aren't in 'cap hell' - they're only slightly over the cap for the next 2 seasons. They've got a big QB contract to work around because that's what they chose to do. If Rapey Watson returns to the player he was, I don't think they'll regret the football side of the deal. The moral side is a different story.

They've got a QB under contract for $46 M - that's not a disaster. In fact, if the Ravens lose Lamar, chances are Cleveland will have a better next 5 years than us.
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The cap hit is 54 mil tho and they are 13 mil as it stands now over the cap. That is not slightly. And when you're over the cap 2 yrs from now............come on.

As for the compensation.......yeah but you say we'll be doormats if we trade. Seahawks made it to the playoffs and have 2 1st rd picks this year. They sure toppled off the mountain lol. We have Monken who won 2 FBS championships with Stetson Bennett as his QB. Don't get me wrong I'd like Lamar signed but not w/o outs(injuries last 2 yrs) but I have no problem taking the picks.
 
rmcjacket23 said:
Burrow yes, I think he'll be the highest paid QB in the league no matter when he signed.
Hurts sure, but Lamar also has an MVP. I'd view them comparable, but I think Hurts signs first anyway, so it'll probably be a moot point.
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Yeah can't wait to see Mike Brown digging in his pockets lol.
 
Willbacker said:
The cap hit is 54 mil tho and they are 13 mil as it stands now over the cap. That is not slightly. And when you're over the cap 2 yrs from now............come on.

As for the compensation.......yeah but you say we'll be doormats if we trade. Seahawks made it to the playoffs and have 2 1st rd picks this year. They sure toppled off the mountain lol. We have Monken who won 2 FBS championships with Stetson Bennett as his QB. Don't get me wrong I'd like Lamar signed but not w/o outs(injuries last 2 yrs) but I have no problem taking the picks.
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As far as the Browns go, they'll likely keep deferring. If he starts to perform well, he'll get another extension in 2-3 years, so they'll just spread the cap hit out more. If he sucks, they'll just probably wait until year 4-5 of the deal and start taking the hits. Suck for a year or two, then move on.

The latter is the real downside of the contract. If he sucks, there's nothing you can do about it. Just gotta eat the dead money and suck for a few years. Becomes more than just a one year problem, of course.
 
rmcjacket23 said:
Right but I also don't think the Ravens are trading Lamar this year anyway, so I don't think them waiting really means much. Plus its like two months away, which isn't a long period of time.

Plus I'm not sure that Herbert or Hurts would necessarily match or exceed what Lamar gets to begin with.
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Herbert should get more
 
rmcjacket23 said:
OK. And I think the second paragraph is what's literally not going to happen.

The Owner wants "outs" because he doesn't want to pay $ to people that aren't performing. You're looking at it purely from a cap or fan perspective, which is probably the absolute wrong way to look at a situation like this.

As you've already said, you don't think being able to have an "out" for one year is significant. I feel very confidently that the person writing the checks may have a completely different view point on that. Not even Billionaires are that cavalier with $50M. Its easy for fans to be, because fans are just spending somebody else's $.
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Of course the owner wants 'outs' but very rarely is it going to be as clear cut as that.

The chances are that Lamar's performance won't decline so much that the Ravens simply want to cut him anyway, except for injury. Even then, most teams are going to give their star QB time to recover in the hope that they return to form. Meanwhile, more of any contract becomes guaranteed with each year that passes.

More often, when a franchise QB declines, we see them traded to a QB hungry team, hoping they can revive his career. Guarantees wouldn't prevent that.

So we're really talking about a severe injury that happens early enough for Lamar to recover and for the Ravens (and every other team) to see that he has definitely lost it as a player, before the team gets any real advantage from the ability to simply cut him. That's a narrow window.

So narrow, that it's clear to me that the Ravens/Bisciotti are against guarantees because of the precedent, not for football reasons. So why are Ravens fans opposed to guarantees? Fucked if I know.
 
Willbacker said:
The cap hit is 54 mil tho and they are 13 mil as it stands now over the cap. That is not slightly. And when you're over the cap 2 yrs from now............come on.

As for the compensation.......yeah but you say we'll be doormats if we trade. Seahawks made it to the playoffs and have 2 1st rd picks this year. They sure toppled off the mountain lol. We have Monken who won 2 FBS championships with Stetson Bennett as his QB. Don't get me wrong I'd like Lamar signed but not w/o outs(injuries last 2 yrs) but I have no problem taking the picks.
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only 46 is guaranteed, no?
 
I just knew all this was going to be a very big issue when Watson got signed and our owner went out there and made the comments he did about the contract.

The idea that Watsons contract was an "outlier" was always incorrect. Steve B knew the moment the Clowns signed that guy that things would change.

No matter what side of the coin you are on, I's obvious that Lamar has done more than Watson.
 
rmcjacket23 said:
As far as the Browns go, they'll likely keep deferring. If he starts to perform well, he'll get another extension in 2-3 years, so they'll just spread the cap hit out more. If he sucks, they'll just probably wait until year 4-5 of the deal and start taking the hits. Suck for a year or two, then move on.

The latter is the real downside of the contract. If he sucks, there's nothing you can do about it. Just gotta eat the dead money and suck for a few years. Becomes more than just a one year problem, of course.
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I'm not sure of the legalities of just simply deferring unless you're talking about non guaranteed extensions and tacking money on. And as a fan and a fan only I don't want somebody thats not on the team no more sucking up 20-25% of cap. And iuf they did just release they did it cuz they was sucking in the 1st place.
 
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