That one year of guarantees between 4 and 5 would really be a deal breaker for you? A year that would be below market rate by that point too? (I actually think the longer deals would be more team friendly.)
Lamar is 26. He won't be 34-35 in 6 years unless he really does everything faster than normal people, including aging.
I just don't see how Lamar doesn't get a fully guaranteed contract. He won't sign the tag necessary for a trade unless that's what's being offered, so it's going to happen. Then all the other top QBs will ask for the same and the Ravens will be left with Tyler Huntley, wishing they'd paid up.
Pretty much. I think fans are being a little too cavalier thinking that one year is just a "small thing" (especially at that price point). One year is the difference between whether you turn to the draft sooner or not. If the Ravens had drafted Flacco's replacement one year sooner, Patrick Mahomes might be the QB of this team. That's what one year looks like.
If he's not performing well, why would it be below market value? The only way it can be below market value is if his trajectory of performance increases, rather than stays flat or decreases. Is that an assumption anybody should be making?
34-35 is the example, because that's when you see the "cliff" for a lot of QBs. His decline could be sooner, given that by the time he's 30, he'll be largely dependent on beating teams almost exclusively with his arm, since he won't be out sprinting guys 7-8 years younger than him in the open field.
At this rate, my guess is at least one other QB (Hurts) and possibly others may get extended before Lamar does, and I don't anticipate any of them getting a fully gtd deal beyond 3-4 years. So at that point, I don't see paths where Lamar does get one. He may refuse to sign the tag to force his hand in FA next year, but it'll take quite the performance this year to get to the fully gtd level, when others in similar or better spots don't get it.
And of course, said performance this year will be hamstrung by the fact that he'll be taking such a large portion of the cap (thereby decreasing the $ available to upgrade playmakers around him), the FO will have little to no incentive to invest in supporting cast for him long term, given that they don't know if he'll be here next year, AND, he'll almost certainly not be in the facility for the bulk of the offseason, which involves a new OC and possibly new receivers to throw to.
