Im likely taking browns on my teaser, if it wasnt for that, i wouldnt touch them mfs. If watson looks anything like he did last year, they will for sure loseAll these supposed pro betters basically underperformed me last season. If not for the 49ers having a QB apocalypse I would have had a perfect playoffs, just as an example.
And of course the baseline is looking at last season. You start off looking at the team was and then look at what changed to see what got better, what got worse, and what is uncertain. For example lets look at Cowboys vs Giants just to demonstrate this in principle.
The major changes from last year for the Cowboys on offense are losing a mediocre TE, moving on from Zeke who Pollard had basically replaced as the year went on, and signing Cooks who is a number 2. You could also add in their other WR Gallup is now 2 years off an ACL injury and players tend to look better 2 years removed versus the next year and meanwhile the offensive line is staying the same with the core players returning and their rookie LG becoming a 2nd year LG so he will statistically improve so their offense can safely be called better. Meanwhile on defense the only major change was replacing a scrub CB with Gillmore so that defense is certainly upgraded even if he lost a step.
Now for the Giants they basically held serve. The big move they made was getting Waller, but otherwise they largely held steady. I like their draft a lot but I am not going to put much stock in rookies week 1. That is a good way to lose money quickly.
Therefore when I look at both teams I see that the Cowboys, who again covered this spread last year, improved by more and addressed more of their positions where they could improve so I just do not see how the gap shrunk. If anything the gap grew which means I would expect the Cowboys to be able to cover an even larger spread.
I could do the same for the rest of the bets I stated but that is my formula. Start from last year and then look at the signings and try to figure out how much uncertainty I have about some of them. I have a lot of uncertainty about the Browns for instance because I have no idea if Watson was just rusty or genuinely washed up. I do also wonder if the offense just does not play to his strengths but again that is why I have too much uncertainty to touch that game until some more data appears.
Edit: I am now also happy I got in on that Chiefs line when I did.
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Next Up: vs Texans
- Thread starter rossihunter2
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Im likely taking browns on my teaser, if it wasnt for that, i wouldnt touch them mfs. If watson looks anything like he did last year, they will for sure lose
rmcjacket23
Ravens Ring of Honor
You being a fan of betting teasers is the most "on brand" admission I've ever seen in the history of these boards...
redrum52
Hall of Famer
Any prop bets you like? lol
Shit im surprised you not on brand with me lmao.. by the team i hit a 7 pick parlay for $20, i would have already be down $500-1000 so id rather take them 500-1000 and do a teaser. Id even do a hundred dollar 8 pick teaser before i bet a RL ticket with 3+ games on it, i really dnt see how people do anything else other than teasers. If you betting 1 or two games, i can understand but 3+, idk how people can have faith in those parlays. i normally do 2 to 3 team teasers and those have me sweating so i can only imagine actually taking ravens +10.. shit i dnt even fuck with -4 lol.
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Militant X 1
Ravens Ring of Honor
Go Ravens!
OURavensFan
Ravens Ring of Honor
I got $100 on Ravens -10, this is 2019 Dolphins opening game. Gonna be a great season
rmcjacket23
Ravens Ring of Honor
Well you pretty much answered your own question. Smart bettors will bet single games, or, at most, a two-bet SGP. There's literally not a significantly-profitable bettor I've ever seen or heard of that bets 3+ bet parlays, and certainly not betting teasers. That's why they call them teasers. They're a tease. They give you a fall sense that you're getting "good value", when in reality, you're not.
I don't gamble on sports, but when I've played in survivor pools, I rarely take teams that play in the same division, because anything can happen.
GodIsGreat
Veteran
Yeah, stay away from gambling its bad and not right
allblackraven
Hall of Famer
Wanna bet you'd like it if you tried?
Well me and countless other smart bettors love teasers and we love the value. Long as win more than we lose, thats all that matters.
I normally dnt bet on us. If i do, its rare. Its how i keep my heart of it lol. If the spread was 6-9, id consider it but i cant do 10. Im too scared of that shit lol. If i bring extra money, ill take us at half or 1st quarter
rmcjacket23
Ravens Ring of Honor
And most lose more than they win. They just don't know any better.
I'm sure every sportsbook is happy to see you play teasers as frequently as you want. I'd be happy to show you how you're actually getting less value on a teaser than on a straight-up bet (which is why sports books love that you bet teasers), but I suspect math isn't the strong suit here, so I doubt it will stick.
crazy how you insult my intelligence but it never seems to work lol. Im cool with it, used to it and i love it…. Anyway, cant convince me that im doing something wrong by betting a teaser. Yea the value is way less compared to what i can profit on a regular RL ticket but i love my 6 point safety net and winning % that i have when it comes to teasers. Ofcourse ill switch to a two team parlay for playoffs since its not many games but thats as far as i go..
Idk if it means im good at math but i have a degree in finance, took up to calc 2 before i switched to finance… so yea id say math is one my strong suits, actually everything is. I got the gift of gab. Shit cant be taught nor bought!
rmcjacket23
Ravens Ring of Honor
lol but I think the part you're missing is that the winning % you need for a 6 point parlay... you're not getting the equivalent payout on your parlay. You're getting juiced to the hills even if you do win.
Even a six-point, two team parlay requires each team (not both combined, each) to cover that teaser at least 73% of the time to be profitable. Which in the long run, has pretty much no chance of happening. You need to be upwards of like 90% per game for that to work on a six-team parlay, for example.
It's not even that you're priced better on single wagers. It's that the book is juicing the shit out of your teaser bet to begin with. The teams you are teasing aren't covering those spreads anywhere near consistently enough for you to match the reduced payout you get, even if you do win.
Hence, the name... teaser.
QtR Nevermore
Pro Bowler
The Ravens -10 spread is too rich for me.
Of course I think we'll win but Houston have talent on defense and, though their OLine is a mess, do we have the pass rush to take advantage?
On the Ravens side, it's a new offense, will there be teething troubles? Will the defense take a little time to work out how to play around their weaknesses at CB and Pass rush? Probably
Of course I think we'll win but Houston have talent on defense and, though their OLine is a mess, do we have the pass rush to take advantage?
On the Ravens side, it's a new offense, will there be teething troubles? Will the defense take a little time to work out how to play around their weaknesses at CB and Pass rush? Probably
Wait so you dnt think im profitable by doing a two team 6pt teaser? im not disagreeing with the value nor aspect of what a teaser really is but when it comes to me profiting at end of year and how many tickets ive won, i usually come out on top.. well except last year, they fked me up bad untill playoffs came and i got blessed. Its much much easier to win a ML bet than a -7….also 72% sounds like its hard but you have to take in account that its basically a pickem..two team to out right win is much easier than taking -6 or -7.
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BoredMarine13
Ravens Ring of Honor
I’m going for it.
1. Harbs teams historically show out in Week1
2. I think three years of offensive frustration are about to come out of this Ravens offense.
3. Lamar is going to be juiced to finally be back in the field and make some huge plays
My only concern is the defense giving up too many points. Hoping RO can rally the boys and keep the Texans to 13 points
QtR Nevermore
Pro Bowler
You're probably right. I've got pessimistic tendencies when it comes to Ravens games - our problems always look bigger and our opponents' smaller to my eyes.
my only concern is coming out a bit rusty due to not playing in the preseason