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The Random Thought Thread

rmcjacket23

rmcjacket23

Ravens Ring of Honor
Adreme said:
I have struggled to actually find more than 3 games I like this week which is a first since probably 2021.

I kinda regret that I have not fought with @rmcjacket23 much this week as that usually helps me iron out my good picks. Right now though outside of 3 games (Buffalo, Jets, Texans) I could be talked into every other game going either way, which is an odd feeling for Thursday.
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Well if its anything like how you laid out week 1, you're better off betting less games.
Should have argued last week. I went 8 for 8. And I guarantee I was on the other side of a lot of games for you.

I probably won't bet the game, mostly because I think the line is priced right, but Buffalo checks every box of a "let down" spot that you see with pretty much every team in this spot. You're getting them off a massive win, long travel overseas, against a team that's been there all week. Buffalo winning by 6 wouldn't surprise me, but there's just not many versions of the NFL where they blow the Jags out.

Of the games I've looked at, there's two principles that hold true over the long run... with Vrabel and Tomlin, fade them as favorites, bet them as dogs. I'm looking to get $ on Indy and Pittsburgh this week.

I think its also time to buy low on Cincinnati. Cincinnati and Arizona are not equals in terms of quality, and they're priced as if they are.

Games I may not bet, but the Jets are sort of "fools gold" at the moment coming off a "good" performance against KC, and I can tell you the sharps will absolutely be taking the Vikings getting anything more than a FG, and many will sprinkle in the ML on that one. Chiefs are a dreadful cover team as a favorite above 3 points. Like printing $ bad. And the higher that # gets, the more dreadful they are ATS.

Texans game I have no real read on. Texans are at their absolute high, and Falcons are probably at their absolute low. Those two teams are pretty on-par with each other in the long run.
 
redrum52

redrum52

Hall of Famer
rmcjacket23 said:
Well if its anything like how you laid out week 1, you're better off betting less games.
Should have argued last week. I went 8 for 8. And I guarantee I was on the other side of a lot of games for you.

I probably won't bet the game, mostly because I think the line is priced right, but Buffalo checks every box of a "let down" spot that you see with pretty much every team in this spot. You're getting them off a massive win, long travel overseas, against a team that's been there all week. Buffalo winning by 6 wouldn't surprise me, but there's just not many versions of the NFL where they blow the Jags out.

Of the games I've looked at, there's two principles that hold true over the long run... with Vrabel and Tomlin, fade them as favorites, bet them as dogs. I'm looking to get $ on Indy and Pittsburgh this week.

I think its also time to buy low on Cincinnati. Cincinnati and Arizona are not equals in terms of quality, and they're priced as if they are.

Games I may not bet, but the Jets are sort of "fools gold" at the moment coming off a "good" performance against KC, and I can tell you the sharps will absolutely be taking the Vikings getting anything more than a FG, and many will sprinkle in the ML on that one. Chiefs are a dreadful cover team as a favorite above 3 points. Like printing $ bad. And the higher that # gets, the more dreadful they are ATS.

Texans game I have no real read on. Texans are at their absolute high, and Falcons are probably at their absolute low. Those two teams are pretty on-par with each other in the long run.
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Next 2 Sundays look awful to me from a betting standpoint
 
rmcjacket23

rmcjacket23

Ravens Ring of Honor
redrum52 said:
Next 2 Sundays look awful to me from a betting standpoint
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It's not great. I had four figure bets on Houston and Tennessee last week. Felt like they were layups. Didn't bet as much on the Jets as I should have, though. Was all over Buffalo ML.

Every week things tighten up a bit. You get more info on teams, and the books get better at setting lines. First week or two half of everything that people thought was dead wrong.

Think most of the public doesn't understand that the NFL is a week-to-week league. Inferior teams beat superior teams weekly. Multiple times a week in fact. Inferior teams cover all the time too. A lot of people look at specific matchups, which is fine, but matchup analysis is predicated on both teams doing what you think they're going to do, and executing at the same level that you've seen them do it. That literally rarely happens in the NFL. Rarely do two teams perform exactly as you'd expect in a single game.

You're picking numbers more than you're picking teams.
 
RavensMania

RavensMania

Staff Member
Administrator
Adreme said:
I have struggled to actually find more than 3 games I like this week which is a first since probably 2021.

I kinda regret that I have not fought with @rmcjacket23 much this week as that usually helps me iron out my good picks. Right now though outside of 3 games (Buffalo, Jets, Texans) I could be talked into every other game going either way, which is an odd feeling for Thursday.
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this post should get it done in 1, 2 ....
 
D

Deebo813

Hall of Famer
Adreme said:
I have struggled to actually find more than 3 games I like this week which is a first since probably 2021.

I kinda regret that I have not fought with @rmcjacket23 much this week as that usually helps me iron out my good picks. Right now though outside of 3 games (Buffalo, Jets, Texans) I could be talked into every other game going either way, which is an odd feeling for Thursday.
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This week is fked up lol.. even for us teaser people..
 
OURavensFan

OURavensFan

Ravens Ring of Honor
Adreme said:
It’s not just me, it’s just about every coach, scout, and GM. Allen COULD be in that conversation if he could be more consistent, and Herbert if he was better in the 4th but Burrow (healthy) is the only non Mahomes QB you can say is great without qualifying it.
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Well besides having three #1s and not playing that great in the playoffs
 
A

Adreme

Ravens Ring of Honor
rmcjacket23 said:
Well if its anything like how you laid out week 1, you're better off betting less games.
Should have argued last week. I went 8 for 8. And I guarantee I was on the other side of a lot of games for you.

I probably won't bet the game, mostly because I think the line is priced right, but Buffalo checks every box of a "let down" spot that you see with pretty much every team in this spot. You're getting them off a massive win, long travel overseas, against a team that's been there all week. Buffalo winning by 6 wouldn't surprise me, but there's just not many versions of the NFL where they blow the Jags out.

Of the games I've looked at, there's two principles that hold true over the long run... with Vrabel and Tomlin, fade them as favorites, bet them as dogs. I'm looking to get $ on Indy and Pittsburgh this week.

I think its also time to buy low on Cincinnati. Cincinnati and Arizona are not equals in terms of quality, and they're priced as if they are.

Games I may not bet, but the Jets are sort of "fools gold" at the moment coming off a "good" performance against KC, and I can tell you the sharps will absolutely be taking the Vikings getting anything more than a FG, and many will sprinkle in the ML on that one. Chiefs are a dreadful cover team as a favorite above 3 points. Like printing $ bad. And the higher that # gets, the more dreadful they are ATS.

Texans game I have no real read on. Texans are at their absolute high, and Falcons are probably at their absolute low. Those two teams are pretty on-par with each other in the long run.
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I had a fantastic week 1, but in context I didn’t bet every line I listed originally only the ones I liked more than Ravens vs Texans (so lines like 49ers and Cowboys paid off great). I tend to not bet more than 5 games, 6 at most, just because there is rarely that much value.

I think people still overrate the Broncos and underrate the Jets. Even if last game was a fluke the Jets won this game easily. I can’t remember the exact number with the Chiefs and +7.5 spreads but I think it was 1-10 for covering but even beyond that the Jets looked good.

The Bills always do 2 things in the regular season: win by more than 7 or lose by less than 7 (its scary how much this checks out). The Jags are frauds who have not impressed me all year. When I think about the Bills and the line is under 8 I just ask will they win and then trust the Bills to do what they always do if I think it is a yes.

I had not thought about Indy much to be honest but that might be good advice. I know that I think the Steelers are a team with a bad offense and a bad coordinator mixed with a good but overrated defense, which means I want to bet Ravens but I will do EVERYTHING I can to avoid getting involved in Ravens games because my natural bias kicks in (as I probably am overtrained on lookin at Ravens players so I overthink it). I know I have been saying it a lot but I think the AFC North was largely overrated. The Steelers and Browns are bad and the Bengals are not a threat without a healthy Burrow.

That being said, I have no idea what to do with that game or the Bengals game for all the reasons you said. Do I bet on an injured immobile QB? That feels incorrect but it is probably smarter. The Bears game was basically my problem with this weekend in a single game: you could argue the Bears are awful and should lose but they also had just had a great half and the Commanders aren’t great so the Bears might also roll. I could go deeper but basically i I didn’t think either bet is one to dislike.
 
rmcjacket23

rmcjacket23

Ravens Ring of Honor
Adreme said:
I had a fantastic week 1, but in context I didn’t bet every line I listed originally only the ones I liked more than Ravens vs Texans (so lines like 49ers and Cowboys paid off great). I tend to not bet more than 5 games, 6 at most, just because there is rarely that much value.

I think people still overrate the Broncos and underrate the Jets. Even if last game was a fluke the Jets won this game easily. I can’t remember the exact number with the Chiefs and +7.5 spreads but I think it was 1-10 for covering but even beyond that the Jets looked good.

The Bills always do 2 things in the regular season: win by more than 7 or lose by less than 7 (its scary how much this checks out). The Jags are frauds who have not impressed me all year. When I think about the Bills and the line is under 8 I just ask will they win and then trust the Bills to do what they always do if I think it is a yes.

I had not thought about Indy much to be honest but that might be good advice. I know that I think the Steelers are a team with a bad offense and a bad coordinator mixed with a good but overrated defense, which means I want to bet Ravens but I will do EVERYTHING I can to avoid getting involved in Ravens games because my natural bias kicks in (as I probably am overtrained on lookin at Ravens players so I overthink it). I know I have been saying it a lot but I think the AFC North was largely overrated. The Steelers and Browns are bad and the Bengals are not a threat without a healthy Burrow.

That being said, I have no idea what to do with that game or the Bengals game for all the reasons you said. Do I bet on an injured immobile QB? That feels incorrect but it is probably smarter. The Bears game was basically my problem with this weekend in a single game: you could argue the Bears are awful and should lose but they also had just had a great half and the Commanders aren’t great so the Bears might also roll. I could go deeper but basically i I didn’t think either bet is one to dislike.
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On last paragraph... that's why you bet the Over (which I did... for a good bit of $). I have no idea who thought 44.5 was a good O/U for that game, but I hammered the over the moment that line came out.

On Steelers/Ravens, its purely a historical track record bet. I'll have to pull the numbers, but its staggering. 30 meetings in the Tomlin/Harbaugh era. 22 have been final spreads of 7 or less, and 19 have been within the 4.5 point spread currently listed. The last five meetings have all been 5 points or less. 12 of the last 15 meetings have been within 7 points.
It's one of those "matchups" where the "matchup" tends to not matter. QBs come in and out, players have injuries, styles match up, etc., and it never seems to matter. And in this case, I'm getting the home team getting points.

And if I'm wrong, so be it. I'm perfectly happy to bet trends.
 
JAAM

JAAM

Hall of Famer
OURavensFan

OURavensFan

Ravens Ring of Honor
I just rewatched AP and Jamal Lewis record games, bias aside Jamal’s was way more impressive. Watching AP’s game I’m surprised he even got the yards, he also turned the ball over once and ran the ball all the way to the end of the game. Jamal had a 60 yard run called back and was taken out at 7 minutes
 
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