Signings, Cuts, Trades

[Simba]

My thoughts on the individual free agents...

Josh Bynes - Should be a cheap re-sign if we want him. I'd imagine we're interested, but wouldn't expect him to be a first wave signing. Let the market play out, see where we stand, and approach if needed.

Justin Ellis - In most years, this is a guy you don't really pay any mind. With our complete lack of depth on the DL, I think he's a guy we'll try to bring back. It shouldn't be more than a minimum type of deal. This is purely a depth move.

Hroniss Grasu - C depth after the Skura injury. Let him walk.

Matt Judon - The expensive one. I expect us to make every effort to retain him. I'm not sure we will, but he's clearly the priority. As mentioned in my previous post... if you don't get him, you still have to pay one.

Anthony Levine - I don't see a reason to let him go. He should be another cheap re-sign at this point in his career. ST and defensive value, albeit a bit limited on the latter part.

Pernell McPhee - Like Bynes, I think McPhee is a guy you wait on to see how everything else goes. I think they'd prefer to let him walk, but if the situation becomes dire, he could be a solid option once again. I think they'll look at the age and injury history and try to prioritize elsewhere.

Chris Moore - I actually think the Ravens would be open to having him back for ST reasons, but Moore will opt to go somewhere that he might factor into the WR battle. His days as a true WR here are over.

Patrick Onwuasor - Change of scenery. He had his chance to sign, turned it down, and put in a poor year. Both sides should be looking to move on.

Domata Peko - Not confirmed, but looks like he'll be leaning toward retirement.

Michael Pierce - Like Grim said, I actually don't think he's going to get some huge contract. He had a down year at the worst time. Regardless, I think we'll move on. If we're going to put more money into the DL, it has to be someone that can apply some pressure. Williams great play down the stretch makes a Pierce reunion unlikely.

Jordan Richards - Him being inactive in the playoffs says what you need to know. He's gone.

Seth Roberts - I would opt to move on, but could see the Ravens being interested if some other plans don't come together. He did a lot of the dirty work in the running game, but not enough as a receiver. Doesn't play any ST though so if he falls down the depth chart as I expect, there's 0 value.

Andre Smith - 1 game injury insurance. Walk.

Jimmy Smith - I'd love to have him back... I just don't see it. I think the Ravens would also love to have him back, but just going on a pure guess that a team with greater CB needs pays him decent money that we can't pay.

De'Anthony Thomas - He provided nothing, and quite frankly, should have never been signed in the first place. Time to find a true returner.

Brynden Trawick - If you can get him for the minimum again, I think he could very well be back. Quality STer with ability to provide depth at both LB and S.

Jihad Ward - Another cheap guy that I don't really see a reason to let go. With Ferguson's struggles on the edge, Ward stepped in admirably. Stats didn't show up, but he played well for us and based on the coaching reviews, I suspect they want him back.

 

[Grim]

My thoughts on the individual free agents...

Josh Bynes - Should be a cheap re-sign if we want him. I'd imagine we're interested, but wouldn't expect him to be a first wave signing. Let the market play out, see where we stand, and approach if needed.

Justin Ellis - In most years, this is a guy you don't really pay any mind. With our complete lack of depth on the DL, I think he's a guy we'll try to bring back. It shouldn't be more than a minimum type of deal. This is purely a depth move.

Hroniss Grasu - C depth after the Skura injury. Let him walk.

Matt Judon - The expensive one. I expect us to make every effort to retain him. I'm not sure we will, but he's clearly the priority. As mentioned in my previous post... if you don't get him, you still have to pay one.

Anthony Levine - I don't see a reason to let him go. He should be another cheap re-sign at this point in his career. ST and defensive value, albeit a bit limited on the latter part.

Pernell McPhee - Like Bynes, I think McPhee is a guy you wait on to see how everything else goes. I think they'd prefer to let him walk, but if the situation becomes dire, he could be a solid option once again. I think they'll look at the age and injury history and try to prioritize elsewhere.

Chris Moore - I actually think the Ravens would be open to having him back for ST reasons, but Moore will opt to go somewhere that he might factor into the WR battle. His days as a true WR here are over.

Patrick Onwuasor - Change of scenery. He had his chance to sign, turned it down, and put in a poor year. Both sides should be looking to move on.

Domata Peko - Not confirmed, but looks like he'll be leaning toward retirement.

Michael Pierce - Like Grim said, I actually don't think he's going to get some huge contract. He had a down year at the worst time. Regardless, I think we'll move on. If we're going to put more money into the DL, it has to be someone that can apply some pressure. Williams great play down the stretch makes a Pierce reunion unlikely.

Jordan Richards - Him being inactive in the playoffs says what you need to know. He's gone.

Seth Roberts - I would opt to move on, but could see the Ravens being interested if some other plans don't come together. He did a lot of the dirty work in the running game, but not enough as a receiver. Doesn't play any ST though so if he falls down the depth chart as I expect, there's 0 value.

Andre Smith - 1 game injury insurance. Walk.

Jimmy Smith - I'd love to have him back... I just don't see it. I think the Ravens would also love to have him back, but just going on a pure guess that a team with greater CB needs pays him decent money that we can't pay.

De'Anthony Thomas - He provided nothing, and quite frankly, should have never been signed in the first place. Time to find a true returner.

Brynden Trawick - If you can get him for the minimum again, I think he could very well be back. Quality STer with ability to provide depth at both LB and S.

Jihad Ward - Another cheap guy that I don't really see a reason to let go. With Ferguson's struggles on the edge, Ward stepped in admirably. Stats didn't show up, but he played well for us and based on the coaching reviews, I suspect they want him back.

I mostly agree with all of this. I don’t think we can afford to just let Ellis or Ward walk because of how they played and especially our depth there at both spots. I think Bynes and Smith will be guys we want back but we’ll let the market decide their value then make a move. I do think both return if we want them. I really don’t see Jimmy getting a big deal elsewhere. He just can’t stay healthy and too many other good CB on the market and some who should be on the market after cuts. Trawick and Levine are guys I could see us keep for ST value, but will he signed for a very cheap deal if they do return. I think Seth Roberts would’ve been a low key guy to keep but his drops came at the worst time. Moore I don’t think wants to be back, and Judon I would be surprised if he returns just because he should get a handsome payday elsewhere. Onwuasor I’ve soured on and he seemed to think he had the job locked up after Mosley left then came into camp and never did much this year. Same thing goes for Pierce.

Our free agent class kinda sucks tbh. We could let them all walk and be fine for once. The only issue is we’d have a lot of holes at edge defender with only Bowser & Ferguson.

 

[D1City55]

McFarland is taking into account RFAs and his numbers tend to be very accurate.

I've posted the link here, just scroll down to the bottom

https://russellstreetreport.com/salarycap/

Yeah thats the article I was looking at. If that takes into account RFA and has us at 51 then that's a little more comforting. Releasing Jefferson and Carr should give us $13M more. $36M definitely gives us room to make a move. A Judon extension could put us at about $20M, that's enough for 2 good players with the way this team knows how to work the cap.

FWIW, I would put Judon at 4YR/64M if I'm being optimistic. That's my hope for what gets a deal done.

 

[Deebo813]

I really think all the good players will get resigned.. clowney, armstead and jones are all gonna get resigned. I say armstead has the best chance of walking. Unless we can make a trade, we have no choice but to sign judon imo.

 

[Sami84]

I really think all the good players will get resigned.. clowney, armstead and jones are all gonna get resigned. I say armstead has the best chance of walking. Unless we can make a trade, we have no choice but to sign judon imo.

they gotta pay mahomes what will be an astronomical amount. Jones might not be able to be kept.

 

[Charm City]

I really think all the good players will get resigned.. clowney, armstead and jones are all gonna get resigned. I say armstead has the best chance of walking. Unless we can make a trade, we have no choice but to sign judon imo.

We can always just tag him and wait till next year. I would not give him a long term deal more than 4y/50mil, which he is almost certain to exceed on the open market.

 

[Charm City]

I'm going to disagree with a lot here. We don't need Jihad Ward ( personally i dont think he was that good despite the praise).
I believe that unless humphrey dramatically improves ( becomes a legit top 5 corner) we don't have to worry about him leaving in 2 seasons I don't see him as indispensable or for us to struggle to find a very good corner in on of the first 2 rounds in 2021.

Let humphrey go if he's asking for record CB signings. Eye test? He's a good corner, he's not a special corner.
Focus on Stanley. We also need to stop signing guys who are past it. Guys like Dareus are DONE. Golden is just a bit more than a JAG.

Imo we need those guys like Golden to round out the team. They won't break the bank and can hopefully step up when we have injuries so we don't have to go digging in the free agency scrap heap like this year.

edit: also Golden had 12 sacks this season vs 9.5 sacks for Judon, so if Golden is a little more than a JAG what does that make Judon

 

[allblackraven]

Imo we need those guys like Golden to round out the team. They won't break the bank and can hopefully step up when we have injuries so we don't have to go digging in the free agency scrap heap like this year.

edit: also Golden had 12 sacks this season vs 9.5 sacks for Judon, so if Golden is a little more than a JAG what does that make Judon

Golden was never a JAG. Injuries derailed his pretty good start to the career but he seems to be back.
Underrated in college, too but he was responsible for half of Shane Ray's sacks by working the other side of the line and doing all the dirty work.

 

[Charm City]

Golden was never a JAG. Injuries derailed his pretty good start to the career but he seems to be back.
Underrated in college, too but he was responsible for half of Shane Ray's sacks by working the other side of the line and all the dirty work.

That was my point. We are overvaluing Judon and undervaluing other guys on the market. I'd much rather have Golden on this team, especially if he ends up costing a decent chunk less.

 

[D1City55]

That was my point. We are overvaluing Judon and undervaluing other guys on the market. I'd much rather have Golden on this team, especially if he ends up costing a decent chunk less.

I don't see why you would rather have Golden especially when Judon has a better body of work. Judon isn't overvalued, if anything he's undervalued. The problem here isn't Judon, the problem is we don't have anyone on the opposite end of Judon nor do we have the ability to pressure up the middle. Also, Judon plays a SAM LB role with us and I don't know if you can rely on Golden to play that same role. Judon had a hand in limiting George Kittle's impact as a receiver against the 49ers when we last played them. Especially considering SAMs are hard to find in this league, it's going to be tough to replace him. We mostly use Bowser as our cover guy there but Judon has done a solid job there. He's also one of the top in the league in QB hits and pressures. You replace Golden with Judon if you want, but it's not going to change anything. You will only see results if you add someone opposite of Golden in addition to bringing help in the middle of the defense.

With a better DL, I can picture Judon's numbers making a big jump. Our inside pass rush could use a huge improvement and it has forced us to use more Jumbo and Dime packages then we would like to use. I think the focus of the off season should be more on getting Judon help rather then replacing him with someone which might cause the defense to take a step back.

 

[balfan23]

How do you guys view Fort vs Bynes? For what little I know, I would have thought Bynes had more value than Fort, but Fort is the one we made a move to get under contract and not Bynes. Not sure why that is ... whether we valued Fort > Bynes or if Fort just was an easier (cheaper) sign.

I would love an upgrade at ILB and I just assume Peanut is gone. It seems to make sense that we'd try to sign Bynes for depth, but what is the expected market for him? Fort was 2 Yr $5.5M.

 

[Charm City]

I don't see why you would rather have Golden especially when Judon has a better body of work. Judon isn't overvalued, if anything he's undervalued. The problem here isn't Judon, the problem is we don't have anyone on the opposite end of Judon nor do we have the ability to pressure up the middle. Also, Judon plays a SAM LB role with us and I don't know if you can rely on Golden to play that same role. Judon had a hand in limiting George Kittle's impact as a receiver against the 49ers when we last played them. Especially considering SAMs are hard to find in this league, it's going to be tough to replace him. We mostly use Bowser as our cover guy there but Judon has done a solid job there. He's also one of the top in the league in QB hits and pressures. You replace Golden with Judon if you want, but it's not going to change anything. You will only see results if you add someone opposite of Golden in addition to bringing help in the middle of the defense.

With a better DL, I can picture Judon's numbers making a big jump. Our inside pass rush could use a huge improvement and it has forced us to use more Jumbo and Dime packages then we would like to use. I think the focus of the off season should be more on getting Judon help rather then replacing him with someone which might cause the defense to take a step back.

I don't buy the "the guy opposite him was poor" argument. We blitz >50% of the time which leaves him 1v1 on a lot of occasions. From what I remember in the SF game he was getting manhandled on the edge by kittle and getting moved off the edge allowing mostert to get plenty of yards on his outside runs. I'm by no means saying he is a poor player, he's just not a $15 M+/year.

And most of his sacks last year came against poor teams. Iirc he only had 2.5 sacks against playoff teams

 

[balfan23]

We can always just tag him and wait till next year. I would not give him a long term deal more than 4y/50mil, which he is almost certain to exceed on the open market.

Yes, Judon on the open market is going to exceed 4yr/$50M ... by a LOT. That is not the figure the Ravens have set in their minds that they are willing to pay, or they wouldn't have bothered to tell us that they are interested in retaining him.

Franchise tag will be over $16M. If you think he's only worth 4yr/$50M, do you think he's worth franchising for $16M? I don't see us franchise tagging him unless we're willing to give a good faith effort in signing him long-term.

 

[balfan23]

Yeah thats the article I was looking at. If that takes into account RFA and has us at 51 then that's a little more comforting. Releasing Jefferson and Carr should give us $13M more. $36M definitely gives us room to make a move. A Judon extension could put us at about $20M, that's enough for 2 good players with the way this team knows how to work the cap.

FWIW, I would put Judon at 4YR/64M if I'm being optimistic. That's my hope for what gets a deal done.

Yes, I think we'd consider 4yr/$64M a bargain for Judon.

Z got 4yr/$66 last year. One can say Judon isn't at Zs level - but I think they were certainly comparable at the time Z signed end of last year. Spotrac gives his market value at 4yr/$65M and uses Z as one of his comps.

If we offer that before FA opens, it is hard to say ... That may be enough to retain him. A lot will come down to how much guaranteed $ is in it. From there, it will come down to whether Judon thinks he'd get significantly more on the open market and wants to push it.

 

[D1City55]

I don't buy the "the guy opposite him was poor" argument. We blitz >50% of the time which leaves him 1v1 on a lot of occasions. From what I remember in the SF game he was getting manhandled on the edge by kittle and getting moved off the edge allowing mostert to get plenty of yards on his outside runs. I'm by no means saying he is a poor player, he's just not a $15 M+/year.

And most of his sacks last year came against poor teams. Iirc he only had 2.5 sacks against playoff teams

Plenty of those blitzes were picked up. A blitz doesn't make a difference if the team picks it up with extra blockers and we use deceptive blitzes that involved Judon dropping back into coverage which was how we hit home plenty of times. He also had a dominant game against Houston and Buffalo when we played them this year so I'm not concerned about last year.

Also, Kittle is probably one of the very few TEs with the ability to block an edge defender out of a play. He's a beast and easily the best blocking TE in the league and we probably haven't seen a TE consistently block with such authority in a long time. He stood Ryan Kerrigan up on pass protection and sealed him up on a run play. He did nearly the same exact thing to Za'darius yesterday and #93(Don't know who he is but I'll assume he's a LB). There's no shame in that honestly.

 

[cdp]

Yes, I think we'd consider 4yr/$64M a bargain for Judon.

Z got 4yr/$66 last year. One can say Judon isn't at Zs level - but I think they were certainly comparable at the time Z signed end of last year. Spotrac gives his market value at 4yr/$65M and uses Z as one of his comps.

If we offer that before FA opens, it is hard to say ... That may be enough to retain him. A lot will come down to how much guaranteed $ is in it. From there, it will come down to whether Judon thinks he'd get significantly more on the open market and wants to push it.

All we know is we have to fix our pass rush and edge setting. Obviously our current players weren't able to do so.
Extending Judon isn't going to improve it and even less if we ultimately have to pay him above fair value.
I really hope Calais gets released.

 

[RavensMania]

they gotta pay mahomes what will be an astronomical amount. Jones might not be able to be kept.

Mahomes is finishing his 3rd year and can be extended this year, but he does have two more years of reasonable contracts remaining, including the 5th year option.

 

[RavensMania]

Golden was never a JAG. Injuries derailed his pretty good start to the career but he seems to be back.
Underrated in college, too but he was responsible for half of Shane Ray's sacks by working the other side of the line and doing all the dirty work.

getting Golden would be nice, but the Giants have plenty of cap space and can make more if needed. Not sure he will be available. I've always liked Golden.

 

[Charm City]

Yes, Judon on the open market is going to exceed 4yr/$50M ... by a LOT. That is not the figure the Ravens have set in their minds that they are willing to pay, or they wouldn't have bothered to tell us that they are interested in retaining him.

Franchise tag will be over $16M. If you think he's only worth 4yr/$50M, do you think he's worth franchising for $16M? I don't see us franchise tagging him unless we're willing to give a good faith effort in signing him long-term.

I don't want to tie up money in the long term without having more confidence that he'd step up. We've been handcuffed by bad contracts in the past and I don't wanna go down that road again considering we have to pay Andrews, LJ, Orlando Brown, etc, very soon. Franchise tagging Judon would be like a 1 yr prove it deal while giving Ferguson and the two new Edge guys we draft (fingers crossed) time to develop so we're not so dependent on his production.

 

[Charm City]

Plenty of those blitzes were picked up. A blitz doesn't make a difference if the team picks it up with extra blockers and we use deceptive blitzes that involved Judon dropping back into coverage which was how we hit home plenty of times. He also had a dominant game against Houston and Buffalo when we played them this year so I'm not concerned about last year.

Also, Kittle is probably one of the very few TEs with the ability to block an edge defender out of a play. He's a beast and easily the best blocking TE in the league and we probably haven't seen a TE consistently block with such authority in a long time. He stood Ryan Kerrigan up on pass protection and sealed him up on a run play. He did nearly the same exact thing to Za'darius yesterday and #93(Don't know who he is but I'll assume he's a LB). There's no shame in that honestly.

When I said last year I meant "this" year considering our season had a premature ending. Regarding my point on blitzing, having a blitz picked up means that they used one of their blockers to occupy the extra rusher, meaning Judon has a higher likelihood of being left 1v1.

In regards to Kittle, Judon on rookie contract can get stood up by Kittle. Judon on a $16mil+/yr contract cannot and should not be taken out of a play by a TE, idc if he's the best blocking TE in the league. Ryan Kerrigan is 31 years old and had 5.5 sacks last year. I don't want my expensive edge player compared to him in any way.