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Signings, Cuts, Trades
- Thread starter RavensMania
- Start date
I'd say trading 27 is more unlikely. Trading away the first pick and waiting for 4 slots is a hard sell unless you have 4 guys with similar grades. Based on years past, I don't think that's likely. If you're going to pick at 31, you might as well just get the guy you want at 27. Again, unless a miracle happens and 4 similar grades are left.
drjohnnyfever
Pro Bowler
Sh!t just got excitin'!!! 
idk that it's that unlikely to have 4 similar grades that late in the draft
I feel like in every draft presser, especially when we pick this late, they say we were always down to 2 guys. Brown or Jawaan Taylor in 2019. Queen and Higgins last year.
We have only picked 31st once in our franchise history.
In 2001, after winning a superbowl before the Texans became a team.
The player we selected... Todd Heap
We have only picked 27th once in our franchise history.
In 2011, when our pick (26) was skipped because time expired.
The player we selected... Jimmy Smith
only picked once at each slot, both times somewhat of an oddity
In 2001, after winning a superbowl before the Texans became a team.
The player we selected... Todd Heap
We have only picked 27th once in our franchise history.
In 2011, when our pick (26) was skipped because time expired.
The player we selected... Jimmy Smith
only picked once at each slot, both times somewhat of an oddity
in brown's case that was after they traded down already...
i get your point - when you pick this late it's unlikely there's going to be a lot of similarly graded players unless you've already run out of 1st round grades which is also highly possible given the makeup of this class
which would make it more likely we trade out...
Yeah that was where I was going to go with my next point. If you trade back at 27, that likely means no "premium" talent made it to you. Much less likely to mean multiple of them fell to you. It means you're likely picking from that 1st/2nd borderline of guys that are all probably similarly ranked.
it's a good point - the jimmy johnson trade chart has been out of date for a long time... the value in the draft has always been to trade down (the drop-off is a lot less steep at the top of the draft
and this is from one of the architects of one of the newer trade charts https://overthecap.com/draft-trade-value-chart/
on this trade chart (someone might want to check my maths), we got the equivalent of a mid-1st rounder in terms of trade compensation (because it values 3rd and 4th round picks highly and considers the 3rd and 4th we got from KC more valuable together than the late 2nd we gave up)
and PFF has it's own model:
based on various research it sounds like most NFL teams havent been using the jimmy johnson trade chart for a long while although it's still the most prevalent in media circles - worryingly it sounds like the chiefs still use it
but both this model and the PFF model seem to have adjusted for the fact that the jimmy johnson model seems to undervalue later picks generally (both as ammunition and as potential prospects) and the fact that trading down (in that model) has always been underscored despite the great yields it returns
this would also suggest that the ravens have their own analytics based model in terms of trading (which we probably could have assumed anyway)
the trick in this period of imbalance would be to try and trade down based on jimmy johnson values and trade up on fitzgerald-spielberger values
i guess the question then would be - if we move back at 27, what are the odds we're also trying to move back from 31 too?
drjohnnyfever
Pro Bowler
I think both picks could be traded. If they trade the 27th to move up, the Chefs pick is not going to be part of that equation. I think it's more likely we trade the 27th and wait for the value they want at 31. But what about all of the rebuilding going on in the first 5 or 6 picks? Trade both for multiple picks over the next two years.
Exactly what I was getting at. Would almost need a perfect storm of guys falling to you to trade 27 but pick at 31.
rmcjacket23
Ravens Ring of Honor
Depends on how far you want to trade up. You're not getting inside the top 20 without giving up 31 or a future first rounder. Given we don't have a 2nd in this class any longer, there aren't many ways you can trade up from 27 that don't involve giving up 31. It would have to involve a 2022 first (likely) or 2nd rounder.
This pick isn't the kind of pick you acquire to try to move up. It's the kind of pick you acquire to stand pat and get a 2nd-round talent with a 5th year option, or to move back and acquire more picks.
Idk... brown is def a good player.. at worst he can move back to RT and play better than most RTs.. no need for people to throw a lil salt on him now that he gone
ThatsMyJoeTerback
Ravens Ring of Honor
Tweet confirms your calculations
Edgar
Ravens Ring of Honor
just heard about the trade 5 minutes ago and still processing. first thought is that perhaps a move to 21 to procure Jenkins/edge and keep 31. deal a 3 and 4 if possible.
also possibility of garnering more picks with further trade down.
also to get 2 first rounders late gets both for five years and relatively low cost....cant wait
also possibility of garnering more picks with further trade down.
also to get 2 first rounders late gets both for five years and relatively low cost....cant wait