Signings, Cuts, Trades

[rmcjacket23]

With Koch, my guess is we take the Billy Cundiff route and bring someone in who may actually legitimately threaten his job and if they take it, Koch is gone. Doesn't help much for FA acquisitions but it does help provide a little room for in-season buffer.

Possible. You just don't get the cap savings until late summer in that scenario, so you can't really spend it during the ideal FA periods of March-May.

But yes, it would give you additional space to roll into the season, which we always need.

My biggest thing is that, if we're serious about extending Lamar, I think his cap number will only go up, not down. It's possible they backload the shit out of it, which I wouldn't, but if you sign him at $40M a year and his year 1 cap hit is even like $28-30M, that's a $5-7M increase on the present number.

As I look at our UFAs, I struggle to find a lot of cap room to keep barely any of them. I assumed Averett, Elliott and Watkins are gone. I assume we won't make much effort to resign Brandon Williams. But I have a suspicion that Campbell doesn't retire, and we try to get him to come back for another year. Problem is, for a guy like him, you're still talking $5-6M a year, if not more, on a one year deal. That's a pretty damn big part of whatever cap space we will have.

I think you'll see us keep Ricard and maybe somebody like Ellis, of which neither will be expensive. But I struggle to find cap space to extend Lamar and Bozeman and still have much to play with. If we keep those two guys, along with some other cheap guys I referenced, that could very well be the gist of our FA period.

I hear people talking about Tyrann Mathieu or Marcus Maye or some of these other guys who might be available. I don't see the money for them. The money for them would come from moving on from the likes of Young and/or Peters.

 

[rossihunter2]

For those that haven't read, here's Brian's salary cap breakdown page for 2022...
https://russellstreetreport.com/salarycap/
https://russellstreetreport.com/2022/01/11/baltimore-ravens-salary-cap/2022-salary-cap/

Reading the preview is interesting. Once you factor in the Rule of 51 and the signings of ERFAs and RFAs (Brian assumes Westry is tendered, while Olaka is not), the Ravens effectively get down to $7.2M in available cap space, which isn't much.

In terms of creating space:
Obvious cuts:
Boykin - $2.5M
Villanueva - $6M

Possible cuts he suggested:
Koch - $2.1M
Oliver - $1.1M
Powers - $2.5M (bigger money than I thought)
James - $3M (I'd say this one is unlikely)
Tavon - $5.8M
Peters - $10M

Obviously Peters and maybe Tavon are extension candidates, which could create space. He also referenced Stanley and Marlon, both with decent size base salaries, as restructure candidates to create space. I'm generally not a fan of this, and we already did it with both last year, but it seems most teams are expecting larger jumps in the cap in next few years, so that may be an option.

Among the listing of people here, it seems clear that Boykin and Villanueva will be gone, and I think Koch, Oliver and perhaps Powers are firmly on the chopping block. Powers is interesting and not somebody I had thought of, but if they are able to upgrade at Tackle and move Phillips to Guard primarily, he's really the 3rd or 4th Guard, behind Phillips, Cleveland and Zeitler, assuming they add nobody else. So I could easily see them viewing $2.7M cap hit in 2022 being too big for a backup, backup Guard. Cutting James would also be interesting if they think he can't return to form, but if he's able to get back to prior-injury playing ability, he's a steal at a $3.25M cap hit, so I think he stays.

Assuming we outright cut the first five guys I listed, that would bump your cap space to north of $20M, which would be a good chunk.

I do think if the FO is serious about making some additions in FA, the possibility of cutting Tavon or Peters is a bigger option than we believe. Peters has a large chunk of cap space that can be created. My guess is they go the extension route with him.

All of this is sort of in the context that a) I don't expect the Ravens to be splash players in the high end FA market once again and b) extensions for our own players, like Lamar, Bozeman, etc. could eat into our available space quite a bit.

Going to be another emphasis on the draft in terms of adding players, I think.

what's interesting with powers is that he's become more likely to be cut now because he hit various escalators that made his contract more expensive for the ravens - he's been good enough to earn more money but not good enough that it's a no-brainer to keep him at that price

my guess is they try and negotiate something with tavon at a lower cap hit - whether he stays will be about whether he's amenable to that at all (and it's certainly probably he wont be given he's still only 27)

 

[Tank]

For those that haven't read, here's Brian's salary cap breakdown page for 2022...
https://russellstreetreport.com/salarycap/
https://russellstreetreport.com/2022/01/11/baltimore-ravens-salary-cap/2022-salary-cap/

Reading the preview is interesting. Once you factor in the Rule of 51 and the signings of ERFAs and RFAs (Brian assumes Westry is tendered, while Olaka is not), the Ravens effectively get down to $7.2M in available cap space, which isn't much.

In terms of creating space:
Obvious cuts:
Boykin - $2.5M
Villanueva - $6M

Possible cuts he suggested:
Koch - $2.1M
Oliver - $1.1M
Powers - $2.5M (bigger money than I thought)
James - $3M (I'd say this one is unlikely)
Tavon - $5.8M
Peters - $10M

Obviously Peters and maybe Tavon are extension candidates, which could create space. He also referenced Stanley and Marlon, both with decent size base salaries, as restructure candidates to create space. I'm generally not a fan of this, and we already did it with both last year, but it seems most teams are expecting larger jumps in the cap in next few years, so that may be an option.

Among the listing of people here, it seems clear that Boykin and Villanueva will be gone, and I think Koch, Oliver and perhaps Powers are firmly on the chopping block. Powers is interesting and not somebody I had thought of, but if they are able to upgrade at Tackle and move Phillips to Guard primarily, he's really the 3rd or 4th Guard, behind Phillips, Cleveland and Zeitler, assuming they add nobody else. So I could easily see them viewing $2.7M cap hit in 2022 being too big for a backup, backup Guard. Cutting James would also be interesting if they think he can't return to form, but if he's able to get back to prior-injury playing ability, he's a steal at a $3.25M cap hit, so I think he stays.

Assuming we outright cut the first five guys I listed, that would bump your cap space to north of $20M, which would be a good chunk.

I do think if the FO is serious about making some additions in FA, the possibility of cutting Tavon or Peters is a bigger option than we believe. Peters has a large chunk of cap space that can be created. My guess is they go the extension route with him.

All of this is sort of in the context that a) I don't expect the Ravens to be splash players in the high end FA market once again and b) extensions for our own players, like Lamar, Bozeman, etc. could eat into our available space quite a bit.

Going to be another emphasis on the draft in terms of adding players, I think.

Not sure if they would consider releasing Peters. We went from having one of the best to one of the worst secondaries and I think it was because Peters wasn't on the field. It would seem it would be a priority to keep him.

 

[Simba]

what's interesting with powers is that he's become more likely to be cut now because he hit various escalators that made his contract more expensive for the ravens - he's been good enough to earn more money but not good enough that it's a no-brainer to keep him at that price

my guess is they try and negotiate something with tavon at a lower cap hit - whether he stays will be about whether he's amenable to that at all (and it's certainly probably he wont be given he's still only 27)

Tavon seems like the classic guy that you cut, let him explore the market, and keep dialogue open for his return based on the other offers. Would think with his injury history, he won’t have a robust market so that option of return is probably pretty solid.

 

[drjohnnyfever]

Tavon seems like the classic guy that you cut, let him explore the market, and keep dialogue open for his return based on the other offers. Would think with his injury history, he won’t have a robust market so that option of return is probably pretty solid.

I get the argument, but when he healthy, he was considered an above average piece of our secondary. IIRC, he was for a time, the heir apparent to Jimmy. I would think there would be a team with cap space better than ours that would take a flier on on his health at pretty decent money... not a lot, but just enough to see us wave goodbye. If he can stay healthy, I would like him around, but that IF is huge for him. If it's him or using money to keep Peters, I'm for keeping Peters.

 

[RavensMania]

For those that haven't read, here's Brian's salary cap breakdown page for 2022...
https://russellstreetreport.com/salarycap/
https://russellstreetreport.com/2022/01/11/baltimore-ravens-salary-cap/2022-salary-cap/

Reading the preview is interesting. Once you factor in the Rule of 51 and the signings of ERFAs and RFAs (Brian assumes Westry is tendered, while Olaka is not), the Ravens effectively get down to $7.2M in available cap space, which isn't much.

In terms of creating space:
Obvious cuts:
Boykin - $2.5M
Villanueva - $6M

Possible cuts he suggested:
Koch - $2.1M
Oliver - $1.1M
Powers - $2.5M (bigger money than I thought)
James - $3M (I'd say this one is unlikely)
Tavon - $5.8M
Peters - $10M

Obviously Peters and maybe Tavon are extension candidates, which could create space. He also referenced Stanley and Marlon, both with decent size base salaries, as restructure candidates to create space. I'm generally not a fan of this, and we already did it with both last year, but it seems most teams are expecting larger jumps in the cap in next few years, so that may be an option.

Among the listing of people here, it seems clear that Boykin and Villanueva will be gone, and I think Koch, Oliver and perhaps Powers are firmly on the chopping block. Powers is interesting and not somebody I had thought of, but if they are able to upgrade at Tackle and move Phillips to Guard primarily, he's really the 3rd or 4th Guard, behind Phillips, Cleveland and Zeitler, assuming they add nobody else. So I could easily see them viewing $2.7M cap hit in 2022 being too big for a backup, backup Guard. Cutting James would also be interesting if they think he can't return to form, but if he's able to get back to prior-injury playing ability, he's a steal at a $3.25M cap hit, so I think he stays.

Assuming we outright cut the first five guys I listed, that would bump your cap space to north of $20M, which would be a good chunk.

I do think if the FO is serious about making some additions in FA, the possibility of cutting Tavon or Peters is a bigger option than we believe. Peters has a large chunk of cap space that can be created. My guess is they go the extension route with him.

All of this is sort of in the context that a) I don't expect the Ravens to be splash players in the high end FA market once again and b) extensions for our own players, like Lamar, Bozeman, etc. could eat into our available space quite a bit.

Going to be another emphasis on the draft in terms of adding players, I think.

one thing that isn't mentioned is the unknown and that is if we get any money back from the Earl Thomas dispute. My assumption is we get some, not all of the money back. Maybe half of it, which would add 5m to our available cop. That's not much, but it helps.

 

[rmcjacket23]

one thing that isn't mentioned is the unknown and that is if we get any money back from the Earl Thomas dispute. My assumption is we get some, not all of the money back. Maybe half of it, which would add 5m to our available cop. That's not much, but it helps.

Well my understanding may have changed, but based on the last relevant article I read, there's really no possibility of the Ravens getting any money back from ET...
https://russellstreetreport.com/202...ry-cap/curious-case-of-earl-thomas-grievance/

The only possibilities are a) it's over, and they owe nothing more, both from cash and cap or b) they could take up to an additional $10M charge in the future, if ET wins his grievance and his fully guaranteed salary for 2020 ends up being owed to him.

Thus far, the only cap hits the Ravens have absorbed for ET since they cut him was his bonus prorations. I suppose its possible the Ravens could file a grievance to recoup that, but it sounds entirely unlikely that has happened or would happen.

What's up for dispute is the $10M in base salary, which was supposedly fully guaranteed, for 2020, that the Ravens didn't pay him. So far none of that has gone to the Ravens cap. If ET wins his grievance, that could be potentially an extra $10M cap hit in 2022, 2023, or whatever year its settled.

 

[rmcjacket23]

what's interesting with powers is that he's become more likely to be cut now because he hit various escalators that made his contract more expensive for the ravens - he's been good enough to earn more money but not good enough that it's a no-brainer to keep him at that price

my guess is they try and negotiate something with tavon at a lower cap hit - whether he stays will be about whether he's amenable to that at all (and it's certainly probably he wont be given he's still only 27)

Well I didn't look into detail of his escalators, but I'm assuming they're all playing time escalators. So I'm not sure that's a product of him "being good" as much as it is players being injured and him being needed to play.

I think he stays, but I guess the argument is if you commit to Zeitler, Cleveland and Phillips as your top 3 guards, and Powers seemingly doesn't play any other positions, wouldn't it be cheaper to just add a fourth Guard elsewhere, either via draft or maybe even an UDFA.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Not sure if they would consider releasing Peters. We went from having one of the best to one of the worst secondaries and I think it was because Peters wasn't on the field. It would seem it would be a priority to keep him.

Well there's a few things I look at...
1. How is Peters going to rebound from his injury? Its possible it diminishes him as a player. He's not a young guy anymore.
2. Do you feel great about extending a player coming off an ACL tear? That's debatable. The assumption I think many fans are making is that we'll get 2019-20 Peters back out there in 2022. I don't know that we should be assuming that.

I wouldn't say a $10M salary is high for Peters. I think its reasonable. The problem is they pushed some of his money into this year already, and I do think a $15.5M cap hit for a player coming off an ACL tear is questionable.

I think he's a prime extension candidate, but that's a two way street too. Peters has to agree to it. He may decide he wants to play it out, show he's back, and hit the market as an UFA next year. And if an extension does happen, I'm sure he wants a raise. And again, how confident should we be on giving a raise to a then 30 year old CB coming off an ACL tear?

 

[rmcjacket23]

what's interesting with powers is that he's become more likely to be cut now because he hit various escalators that made his contract more expensive for the ravens - he's been good enough to earn more money but not good enough that it's a no-brainer to keep him at that price

my guess is they try and negotiate something with tavon at a lower cap hit - whether he stays will be about whether he's amenable to that at all (and it's certainly probably he wont be given he's still only 27)

My problem with Tavon's situation is... why is $5.8M (what he's owed in 2021) unreasonable? Like how much are you shaving off that?

He already took a paycut last year of $2.85M, and he was the healthiest he's been in a long time and played pretty well. If I were him, paycut probably isn't on my radar.

At a base salary of less than $6M, I don't think he'd have a tough time finding that on the open market. That's not a lot for a pretty good Nickel Corner. He could start in that role for many, many teams in this league.

 

[RavensMania]

Well my understanding may have changed, but based on the last relevant article I read, there's really no possibility of the Ravens getting any money back from ET...
https://russellstreetreport.com/202...ry-cap/curious-case-of-earl-thomas-grievance/

The only possibilities are a) it's over, and they owe nothing more, both from cash and cap or b) they could take up to an additional $10M charge in the future, if ET wins his grievance and his fully guaranteed salary for 2020 ends up being owed to him.

Thus far, the only cap hits the Ravens have absorbed for ET since they cut him was his bonus prorations. I suppose its possible the Ravens could file a grievance to recoup that, but it sounds entirely unlikely that has happened or would happen.

What's up for dispute is the $10M in base salary, which was supposedly fully guaranteed, for 2020, that the Ravens didn't pay him. So far none of that has gone to the Ravens cap. If ET wins his grievance, that could be potentially an extra $10M cap hit in 2022, 2023, or whatever year its settled.

interesting, surprised I missed that article. I also thought the amount was already removed from the Ravens cap. Thanks for posting.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Tavon seems like the classic guy that you cut, let him explore the market, and keep dialogue open for his return based on the other offers. Would think with his injury history, he won’t have a robust market so that option of return is probably pretty solid.

I mean I think "robust" market is like $4-6M a year, or more, which is basically what we're scheduled to pay him in 2022. If I were him, I'd have no fear at all of testing the market if the Ravens cut me. I think he'd do at least just as good in terms of cash, and he'd likely get a multi-year deal from somebody with more guaranteed money up front. That's better than what he's getting in Baltimore right now.

 

[rmcjacket23]

interesting, surprised I missed that article. I also thought the amount was already removed from the Ravens cap. Thanks for posting.

There's a shit ton of confusion around the whole situation. The length its dragged out is illogical.

A lot of people are seeing the $5M, $10M cap hits in the last few years and thinking that we're basically accounting for everything we owe him. We haven't. He could potentially cost us $10M more.

I don't see how they get any money back from bonus prorations. You typically only see that stuff when the player retires. There was a great article about how when Aaron Hernandez got arrested for being a serial killer and subsequently killed himself, the Patriots couldn't recoup any of his bonus money they had paid him prior to his arrest that they were prorating for the cap (they tried and failed).

If a teams isn't winning that grievance, I sincerely doubt the Ravens have a leg to stand on. And from what I can tell, we haven't tried that route either.

 

[RavensMania]

Well I didn't look into detail of his escalators, but I'm assuming they're all playing time escalators. So I'm not sure that's a product of him "being good" as much as it is players being injured and him being needed to play.

I think he stays, but I guess the argument is if you commit to Zeitler, Cleveland and Phillips as your top 3 guards, and Powers seemingly doesn't play any other positions, wouldn't it be cheaper to just add a fourth Guard elsewhere, either via draft or maybe even an UDFA.

It's also very possible we draft a right tackle who plays left guard in year one to get him on the field, so yes the draft is the best way to go.

 

[rossihunter2]

Well I didn't look into detail of his escalators, but I'm assuming they're all playing time escalators. So I'm not sure that's a product of him "being good" as much as it is players being injured and him being needed to play.

I think he stays, but I guess the argument is if you commit to Zeitler, Cleveland and Phillips as your top 3 guards, and Powers seemingly doesn't play any other positions, wouldn't it be cheaper to just add a fourth Guard elsewhere, either via draft or maybe even an UDFA.

they're automatic ones in all 3rd round and down contracts - yeah they're playing time escalators (boykin hit his too which is why he's almost 100% certain to be cut also) - basically the NFL rewards guys who were picked lower down but who've out-performed their rookie deal significantly

and my point wasnt necessarily that he'd played well - just that the NFL process of rewarding him might actually lose him his job

 

[rmcjacket23]

It's also very possible we draft a right tackle who plays left guard in year one to get him on the field, so yes the draft is the best way to go.

Right, that's kind of my point. If Powers is going to be your 4th Guard, I think he's arguably too expensive for that.
I don't think he'll be like a March release though. Agree with others that it'll probably be like a Sam Koch situation, wherein they bring in competition, and if he doesn't perform, they move on quickly. Powers will probably need to earn like the #3 Guard spot, or potentially even a starter role, in order to keep his roster spot, I would think.

 

[RavensMania]

There's a shit ton of confusion around the whole situation. The length its dragged out is illogical.

A lot of people are seeing the $5M, $10M cap hits in the last few years and thinking that we're basically accounting for everything we owe him. We haven't. He could potentially cost us $10M more.

I don't see how they get any money back from bonus prorations. You typically only see that stuff when the player retires. There was a great article about how when Aaron Hernandez got arrested for being a serial killer and subsequently killed himself, the Patriots couldn't recoup any of his bonus money they had paid him prior to his arrest that they were prorating for the cap (they tried and failed).

If a teams isn't winning that grievance, I sincerely doubt the Ravens have a leg to stand on. And from what I can tell, we haven't tried that route either.

yeah, I wouldn't expect to get any money back from bonus proration. That's money paid up front as a signing bonus or subsequent bonus' and is fully guaranteed, except as you said when a player retires.

 

[RavensMania]

Right, that's kind of my point. If Powers is going to be your 4th Guard, I think he's arguably too expensive for that.
I don't think he'll be like a March release though. Agree with others that it'll probably be like a Sam Koch situation, wherein they bring in competition, and if he doesn't perform, they move on quickly. Powers will probably need to earn like the #3 Guard spot, or potentially even a starter role, in order to keep his roster spot, I would think.

I'd expect him to be here atleast through the draft and maybe into camp. They may try and trade him for a future draft pick. I think he is worth a day 3 pick, although teams may be hesitant based on salary.

 

[Tank]

Well there's a few things I look at...
1. How is Peters going to rebound from his injury? Its possible it diminishes him as a player. He's not a young guy anymore.
2. Do you feel great about extending a player coming off an ACL tear? That's debatable. The assumption I think many fans are making is that we'll get 2019-20 Peters back out there in 2022. I don't know that we should be assuming that.

I wouldn't say a $10M salary is high for Peters. I think its reasonable. The problem is they pushed some of his money into this year already, and I do think a $15.5M cap hit for a player coming off an ACL tear is questionable.

I think he's a prime extension candidate, but that's a two way street too. Peters has to agree to it. He may decide he wants to play it out, show he's back, and hit the market as an UFA next year. And if an extension does happen, I'm sure he wants a raise. And again, how confident should we be on giving a raise to a then 30 year old CB coming off an ACL tear?

Right. And those decision points will be during/after the 2022 season.

 

[Tank]

Tavon seems like the classic guy that you cut, let him explore the market, and keep dialogue open for his return based on the other offers. Would think with his injury history, he won’t have a robust market so that option of return is probably pretty solid.

Considering the state of the secondary I doubt they take that chance. And he was the only guy back there that stayed healthy all of last year, so there's that as well.