Signings, Cuts, Trades

[rmcjacket23]

I think Brown is a very good player and will be fine in their offense. I absolutely do not think he should be the highest paid tackle in the league. That’s just crazy. We’ll see how good his agent is. Hopefully he gets a huge contract... less the chiefs can throw at other pieces.


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Free agency is about supply/demand. High end LT's almost never hit the market, and there's like 20 NFL teams that don't have one and can't easily find one in the draft, because the college ranks has been sucking at producing high-end NFL tackles in recent years.

High demand + low supply = higher prices. Fans shouldn't try to use the "rank them" method to apply value to players. That never works.

 

[Deebo813]

idk about that - we saw in 2019 out of empty lamar picking teams apart with pre-snap and post-snap reads

it's true he didnt throw with as much anticipation in 2020 i dont think - but he also made some great reads and throws - there were a few throws where you'd have liked to see him get the ball out but i just dont think he ever felt comfortable behind that OL in pass pro last year - you saw it at the beginning of the season even against the browns in week 1 when he put up that great performance, it still felt like he was running for his life

but with boykin i think the issue is 3 fold:
1) he's running a lot of clear-out routes designed to create space underneath which means that he's low-down in the progressions in a lot of cases - you could argue that lamar could maybe make a pre-snap check or audible to target boykin but a lot of those types of routes take time to develop so they're never going to be super high in the progressions
2) lamar didnt really trust him to run the right route - which means timing routes like backshoulders and fades etc (the types of things where you'd expect boykin to be best) were basically no gos - and you saw at least 2 or 3 times when that play was called, boykin ran the wrong route/mis-read the coverage
3) boykin's struggling to separate with physicality and doesn't play with physicality at the catch-point either despite his frame - when he's getting open he's winning with speed mostly

You are correct about boykin for sure but even last year like in the redzone, it was 1vs1 with dez with no help and matter fact i think it was 2 plays straight and dez beat the guy off the line. Lamar threw it to him the 2nd play but it was after the play was basically broken.. i figured lamar would look his way because it was 1vs1 press against dez, but he never did..maybe he didnt trust dez? Idk but i hope that was a learning experience for lamar...

edit... just checked and the 2nd play where he scored was actually a different cvg

 

[rossihunter2]

It's also an exercise for the fanbase to understand that just because A team trades B picks for C player, and fans value D player the same as C player, it doesn't mean team E will get the exact same pick haul as team A. Trades are a two way street. Sometimes trades are about timing and opportunity more than value. If you have a price, and nobody is willing to give you that price, it means you either lower your price or keep the player. And both come with high risks.

So until I hear that there were other NFL teams willing to give up more for Brown, I'm assuming this was the best deal that was offered. Pretty clear from the "rumors" about a Vikings trade and what they were offering almost certainly had to be false, given I'm 100% confident that Eric would have preferred to trade Brown out of conference and for better draft pick compensation. That seems obvious.

it sounds like the Orlando market had been cold for a while and then the chiefs came in out of nowhere in the last few days with the highest offer (sounds like no one else was even close) - ravens wanted 31 straight up and chiefs said no - so the ravens in a roundabout way got what they considered equivalent value (and the chiefs got what they considered better value)

 

[rossihunter2]

You are correct about boykin for sure but even last year like in the redzone, it was 1vs1 with dez with no help and matter fact i think it was 2 plays straight and dez beat the guy off the line. Lamar threw it to him the 2nd play but it was after the play was basically broken.. i figured lamar would look his way because it was 1vs1 press against dez, but he never did..maybe he didnt trust dez? Idk but i hope that was a learning experience for lamar...

edit... just checked and the 2nd play where he scored was actually a different cvg

i remember watching that dez td live - and he got open twice on that play lol - he was open and then got open again on the scramble drill

 

[Edgar]

I've heard on the radio and read at least three ex-NFL execs say that Zaven Collins will be one of the "highest risers" in this class, meaning he's going to go much earlier than most people expect. All of them said top 25 for sure, at least one suggested he could go as high as #11 to NYG.

not surprising. He's pretty unique.

 

[RavensMania]

I'd say its more likely we trade down again to accumulate more picks and get maybe an early 2nd rounder back. 27 and 31 are prime spots for a team looking to possibly get that 6th QB and keep them for an additional year.

I'm not sure its entirely about Ronnie either. Villanueva can obviously play LT, and I think we're still going to be in the market for a Tackle earlier in this draft. I think its also about making sure we have depth there.

of course we are and agree it changes nothing.

 

[RavensMania]

I believe the last time I discussed this, I said we could get a late round pick. I said, for certain, we wouldn't get multiple first rounders, which was what some suggested, based on what Miami gave up for Tunsil. Remember, there were some players and later picks in that deal, but Houston got 2 1st and a 2 for Tunsil. There were people on this board (I'll see if I can track down names) that basically believe Brown was worth MORE than that, and that the opening volley for a Brown trade was like a 1st and a 2nd, plus more.

Plus its like, yeah, we got a 1st rounder, but we only gave up our second rounder as part of it. There's like six picks in this deal.

A rough calculation based on the draft value chart (not gospel), and its not exactly apples to apples since values change year to year, but basically, we netted ~430 points in total via draft picks.

430 points, in the current draft, is worth roughly a mid second rounder. So in aggregate, that's about what we landed in the Brown trade.

agree it's worth a 2nd rounder all picks included if you are talking about the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart, but the newer trade value chart https://overthecap.com/draft-trade-value-chart/ has it as clearly a 1st rounder..

Yes there were some on the boards and even more on social media that thought that, however with one year on a contract we weren't realistically going to get that.

 

[RavensMania]

Well, not all fans think that way. Some fans believe that the draft literally hinges on whoever you get in the first round.

My point was that many, many, many fans will be extremely pissed if we exit Thursday without a WR. And I think the people that think that way, quite frankly, are stupid. And that's what I found comical. They will quite literally think that the only way to upgrade at WR in the draft is to use a first round pick on one, which is why so many fans are seemingly zeroed in on "must grab WR in round 1".

I can't see any way possible where the FO would pigeon hole itself like that, and for their sake, I hope they don't think that way at all.

"not all fans" is different than most fans. You are making it seem like the vast majority of fans when it isn't.

 

[BoredMarine13]

You have little faith in late first rounders being able to protect him? Huh?

Bozeman is a stud, who was a 6th rounder. Zeitler himself is a late first rounder, and the stud we just traded away, Brown, was a third rounder.

Most likely, it looks more like Stanley, Powers, Bozeman, Zeitler, Phillips, meaning the only true "weak spot" I see is at RT. At which, I expect we will add two bodies in the next two weeks.

I don't really understand at all the notion of needing better than late first rounders to play good offensive line in this league. There's literally stud offensive lineman all over the place in this league who weren't even in the ballpark of first round picks. There's a lot of people league-wide who think spending a first round pick on a RT is considered "bad value", because the expectation is anybody good enough to be selected in the first should be on the blindside. I don't agree with it, but that's perception in some cases.

Bozeman a stud ? Capable sure , a stud? That’s a big no. No I do not believe ,in likely another shortened off season, that a guy drafted in late 1st Round will be able to hold up for the season at RT. That’s why i believe snagging someone like Villanueva is so important at this point. Not to mention Tyre Phillip coming off the bench in case someone gets injured is downright scary.

I’m not sure what your getting at by pointing out where everyone was drafted. We could spend all day pointing out players drafted in each round that were hits or whiffs. There will certainly be more whiffs. Previous drafts are irrelevant as is the spot they were drafted.

I’d have much rather kept Brown and let him walk next year for a comp pick than make this trade. It created a void that we’ll have to throw multiple draft picks at. Taking away from plenty of other needs (WR, Edge, C, CB, Safety).


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[RavensMania]

I'll say this... while I don't think any draft trade chart is the "gospel" in league circles, I could pick fights with any of them...

Like if I look at the OTC chart, while they clearly value mid-round picks higher than say the JJ value chart, they also seemingly value everything across the board higher, at the expense of first rounders.

For example... if you look at OTC, if I wanted pick #65, which is top of the third round, the trade chart says all I would have to give up to get it is roughly 4 7th round picks. Do you think any team in the league would accept 4 7th round picks for a 3rd rounder, straight up? I don't.

And that's not a pick swap either. That's not a third for a third + 4 7th rounders. That's just 4 7th round picks for a top-end 3rd rounder. I don't think there's a single team in the league that does that deal. 7th round picks, across the board, are almost entirely throwaways. They're no more or less likely to "hit" than an UDFA is. The Ravens basically don't have a 7th round pick worth a shit in franchise history, which spans 25 years.

I understand how some sites may value 1st rounders more and devalue mid-rounders, but the reality is that, when I look at OTC's chart, for example, I think they've gone too far the other spectrum. They put way too much value in 6th and 7th rounders, and probably not enough up front.

So if I'm valuing this trade... I got one site telling me they got a mid-first rounder, and other sites telling me they got mid-second rounder. I would personally just agree to split the difference, meaning they got a late first round grade. Basically the 3 and the 4 they got are offset by the 2nd they lost. I think that's a reasonable assessment.

Which puts us about where a lot of us were expecting all year. Not going to get a top 20 pick straight up for him, happy to get a first rounder at all.

splitting the difference is a fair take on the matter and is about what PFF values the pick. They had it as a 27th or 28th on their trade value chart

 

[RavensMania]

Bozeman a stud ? Capable sure , a stud? That’s a big no. No I do not believe ,in likely another shortened off season, that a guy drafted in late 1st Round will be able to hold up for the season at RT. That’s why i believe snagging someone like Villanueva is so important at this point. Not to mention Tyre Phillip coming off the bench in case someone gets injured is downright scary.

I’m not sure what your getting at by pointing out where everyone was drafted. We could spend all day pointing out players drafted in each round that were hits or whiffs. There will certainly be more whiffs. Previous drafts are irrelevant as is the spot they were drafted.

I’d have much rather kept Brown and let him walk next year for a comp pick than make this trade. It created a void that we’ll have to throw multiple draft picks at. Taking away from plenty of other needs (WR, Edge, C, CB, Safety).


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the need would have been filled this year anyway as it would be a bad mistake to wait until next season to fill the void, especially in a tackle class like this one.

 

[RavensMania]

probably worth pointing out that the new CBA made the 5th year option much more expensive (for non-low value positions)

and guaranteed once the team designates the 5th year option.

 

[RavensMania]

You have little faith in late first rounders being able to protect him? Huh?

Bozeman is a stud, who was a 6th rounder. Zeitler himself is a late first rounder, and the stud we just traded away, Brown, was a third rounder.

Most likely, it looks more like Stanley, Powers, Bozeman, Zeitler, Phillips, meaning the only true "weak spot" I see is at RT. At which, I expect we will add two bodies in the next two weeks.

I don't really understand at all the notion of needing better than late first rounders to play good offensive line in this league. There's literally stud offensive lineman all over the place in this league who weren't even in the ballpark of first round picks. There's a lot of people league-wide who think spending a first round pick on a RT is considered "bad value", because the expectation is anybody good enough to be selected in the first should be on the blindside. I don't agree with it, but that's perception in some cases.

That thought is definitely true but old school to say the least with some of the best rushers in the league lining up across from the RT. BTW, I don't think Bozeman is a stud. He's definitely good and has continued to improve and I wanted him prior to the draft in 2018, but to call him a stud is a little overstating his play.

 

[RavensMania]

Matt Wise

@TheMattWise


How I'm viewing the swap

For the cost of losing Brown Jr. a year early, the #Ravens...

move up from 58 to 31

get their comp. pick for Brown a year early (94)

add 136

move up one round late in 2022

 

[BoredMarine13]

Matt Wise

@TheMattWise


How I'm viewing the swap

For the cost of losing Brown Jr. a year early, the #Ravens...

move up from 58 to 31

get their comp. pick for Brown a year early (94)

add 136

move up one round late in 2022

Attempting to quantify the trade or draft is nearly impossible. We know the drop off after pick 20 is significant every year. Historically, The drop off in talent after pick 20 is immense.

The draft is a crap shoot and nothing more. Other than the above , confirmed data, there is virtually no relationship between how well a GM drafts from one year to the next. Fans form a cognitive bias trying to quantify their teams ability to draft well. The truth is some teams are slightly more lucky then others, but on average not far apart.


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[BoredMarine13]

If anyone is interested in what I was talking about above : https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-team-can-beat-the-draft/amp/

I wrote a paper on it In an attempt to make my statistics class fun for my Masters. Interesting stuff


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[airconteka]

Personally I think any player that forces a trade because they want to play another position rather than wait a year is a shithead. So see you later, used to hate it how people called him OBJ, but it seems appropriate now.

 

[Deebo813]

Personally I think any player that forces a trade because they want to play another position rather than wait a year is a shithead. So see you later, used to hate it how people called him OBJ, but it seems appropriate now.

It was the best time ever to do it.. his stock is basically at its highest right now.. last years 24yr old pro bowl RT, switches to LT and plays really well doing so..

 

[Francois Boulianne]

i imagine the ravens analytics department have their own calculations too
my guess is when the chiefs decided not to do 31 straight up, that they worked out a way to fleece them on their metrics while not going over board on the old charts

losing the 2nd isnt ideal but getting the 1,3 and 4 is a great way to make up for losing the 2 (and the 2022 pick swap too)

Or if we simply go to their 2020 real life analytics, when they had this trade:

No. 60: Baltimore → New England (D). Baltimore traded second- and fourth-round selections (60th and 129th) to New England in exchange for two third--round selections (71st and 98th)

This year we traded 58 (without surrending an equivalent to the 129) and got 94 and 136. The drop off we have from the 71th to the 136th pick is compensated by not surrending an equivalent to 129 in this year's 2nd round sale and raising one round (6 to 5) in 2022.

Based on these analytics, we clearly netted their first round pick I would dare to say...

Which I did not see at first...

 

[Deebo813]

So basically my hopes of us getting a S is over...