The Random Thought Thread

[Dom McRaven]

It's gonna sting watching Baker and/or Josh Allen win a playoff game before Lamar (if we miss the playoffs this season).

 

[Corvus Purpura]

Steelers won't be the 1 seed now.

If the Ravens were to be the #7, I would feel way better about going to Heinz, than Arrowhead.

If the Steelers win out, they'll still have #1 seed, as their conference record will be better than KC.

Also of note, if both we and Steelers win out, we'll have a higher seed than the Browns. (Or if we win out and Browns lose any other game.)

We all know that all roads eventually go through the Chiefs, though it would be nice if that wasn't our first playoff game.

 

[ThatsMyJoeTerback]

 

[JoeyFlex5]

There wasn’t much to expose.

play top down coverage, don’t turn the ball over, make good sound tackles, don’t fall for the PI bait. When the Steelers aren’t getting PI calls and refs aren’t bailing them out and you don’t give them short fields, they don’t score. They are good for ONE drive of 80 yards per game against a good defense.

 

[rmcjacket23]

There wasn’t much to expose.

play top down coverage, don’t turn the ball over, make good sound tackles, don’t fall for the PI bait. When the Steelers aren’t getting PI calls and refs aren’t bailing them out and you don’t give them short fields, they don’t score. They are good for ONE drive of 80 yards per game against a good defense.

For me, its basically don't blitz. Rush 4-5 and play coverage. Skins didn't even get much pressure yesterday and still held them in check.

Go look at the game notes from Wednesday's game last week:
51 pass plays
Ravens rushed 4 or less on 35 plays
Ravens rushed 5 or less on 47 of 51 plays

On the season, Ravens average 5+ rushers on 44% of snaps. They dialed that back to 31% against Pittsburgh. The only blitzed a defensive back twice the whole game.
Per FilmStudy's review, Ben had ATS (ample time and space) on 39% of plays, which is actually pretty decent time to throw by NFL standards. Ben had the quickest release in the week, at 2.2 seconds, yet had one of the lowest air yards traveled. They had only 4 completions of over 10 air yards.

So what does that mean?
a) Pittsburgh either doesn't or doesn't want to throw down field. Their entire pass game is based on quick throws and YAC.
b) So the solution to that is typically don't blitz, play coverage, and tackle well. If you do those things, you can usually neutralize their passing game.

The result?

13 points on offense against a Ravens defense that was missing most of its front 7
17 points on offense against the Redskins, who have one of the worst secondaries in football and weren't getting much of a pass rush yesterday either.

 

[rmcjacket23]

If the Steelers win out, they'll still have #1 seed, as their conference record will be better than KC.

Also of note, if both we and Steelers win out, we'll have a higher seed than the Browns. (Or if we win out and Browns lose any other game.)

We all know that all roads eventually go through the Chiefs, though it would be nice if that wasn't our first playoff game.

True, but if we win out, we'll be 11-5, and 11-5 isn't getting the 7 seed. That'll be a 5 or 6 seed, at worst.

If we win out, we won't be playing PIT or KC in the wildcard round. Will be playing the AFC South or East winner.

 

[RavensFan419]

Why does it feel like it's been an entire offseason since we've seen Lamar play I'm like genuinely excited lol

 

[Militant X 1]

There wasn’t much to expose.

play top down coverage, don’t turn the ball over, make good sound tackles, don’t fall for the PI bait. When the Steelers aren’t getting PI calls and refs aren’t bailing them out and you don’t give them short fields, they don’t score. They are good for ONE drive of 80 yards per game against a good defense.

To me, Big Ben's offense is more about "slight of hand" type of plays (generically speaking). Meaning that they have seemingly mastered the subtle "timing" of the receivers routes and Ben's throws to the spot where they should be. Ben often looks a safety off to the right or left, while knowing that he is throwing in the opposite direction all along. Then he may mix that with his patented pump fake and then he just puts soft touches on the rock to the spot that he knows his receivers should be. The moment that I see that combination taking place from Big Ben; I oftentimes say; "Got'em!" Meaning, that I know the defense fell for that okie-doke which ended in either a big play for the Steelers or a PI.

 

[rossihunter2]

So what does that mean?
a) Pittsburgh either doesn't or doesn't want to throw down field. Their entire pass game is based on quick throws and YAC.
b) So the solution to that is typically don't blitz, play coverage, and tackle well. If you do those things, you can usually neutralize their passing game.

i think the crucial thing here was the ravens (and everyone) knew the steelers werent going to run the ball, they also know that big ben is getting the ball out quicker than any other player in the league

you're right that you dont want to blitz them but what we did was muddy the line of scrimmage (like we do even when we are blitzing) and create free rushers and free hits with scheme and flexible use of EDGE and linebackers to take away hot reads, throwing lanes but also create confusion upfront

the ravens are a great blitzing team not just because of the numbers we send but because of the way we create deception

 

[JoeyFlex5]

i think the crucial thing here was the ravens (and everyone) knew the steelers werent going to run the ball, they also know that big ben is getting the ball out quicker than any other player in the league

you're right that you dont want to blitz them but what we did was muddy the line of scrimmage (like we do even when we are blitzing) and create free rushers and free hits with scheme and flexible use of EDGE and linebackers to take away hot reads, throwing lanes but also create confusion upfront

the ravens are a great blitzing team not just because of the numbers we send but because of the way we create deception

It felt like that deception has been missing lately tbh, most of this season it’s been more about just throwing the kitchen sink it feels like, it’s really nice to see a change up, and hopefully wink is growing as a coordinator and can start learning to do more with coverage than just lean on your corners talent. I’ve been a big proponent of using bowser in coverage more for a while, I thought he would have been better as a edge rusher this year but oh well, regardless I wanted him to drop more from showing blitz, also I am perfectly okay with the way we gave up the short stuff and made the tackles, the press coverage and baiting and bailing on assignments to jump routes and going for fumbles is very exciting when it works, but god damn if we ran the same coverage from the Steelers game against the Titans, we probably would’ve beat them, we were overly aggressive same as the last time we played them, we gave up big chunks and let guys break tackles for big runs as we go for the strip, etc. and it felt like a different defense vs the Steelers.

sorry if I didn’t make sense at any point, this was rambled as I multitasked and I typed it in 3 different sessions lol and I don’t have time to revise

 

[rossihunter2]

It felt like that deception has been missing lately tbh, most of this season it’s been more about just throwing the kitchen sink it feels like, it’s really nice to see a change up, and hopefully wink is growing as a coordinator and can start learning to do more with coverage than just lean on your corners talent. I’ve been a big proponent of using bowser in coverage more for a while, I thought he would have been better as a edge rusher this year but oh well, regardless I wanted him to drop more from showing blitz, also I am perfectly okay with the way we gave up the short stuff and made the tackles, the press coverage and baiting and bailing on assignments to jump routes and going for fumbles is very exciting when it works, but god damn if we ran the same coverage from the Steelers game against the Titans, we probably would’ve beat them, we were overly aggressive same as the last time we played them, we gave up big chunks and let guys break tackles for big runs as we go for the strip, etc. and it felt like a different defense vs the Steelers.

sorry if I didn’t make sense at any point, this was rambled as I multitasked and I typed it in 3 different sessions lol and I don’t have time to revise

i dont agree with that - we've been sending numbers for sure but no more than last year - and the blitz designs have been as amazing as ever - the stunts, the decisions to drop various guys from the LoS vs rushing DBs etc.

we're an aggressive defence because we want to control what the offence is doing - it was nice to see Wink be able to change it up when the offence against us doesnt fit that style of play and the losses in personnel made some things tougher

 

[SepticeyePoe]

Apparently Queen has been graded by PFF as the 2nd worst defender in the entire NFL. I know PFF isn't everything, but I feel he has played better than that. What's everyone's thoughts on that?

 

[Simba]

Apparently Queen has been graded by PFF as the 2nd worst defender in the entire NFL. I know PFF isn't everything, but I feel he has played better than that. What's everyone's thoughts on that?

I think his grade has suffered because of 2 really rough games earlier this year... particularly the Chiefs game in which he’d have probably graded negative if that was a thing. I think he’s been solid otherwise. Coverage has been a weak spot but there have been moments. Positive signs are there. I think he’s the exact type of guy that a full offseason would really help. Lots of responsibility in a complex defense.

 

[rossihunter2]

Apparently Queen has been graded by PFF as the 2nd worst defender in the entire NFL. I know PFF isn't everything, but I feel he has played better than that. What's everyone's thoughts on that?

because of the way their grading system works - making big impact splash plays are less important than consistency

every single snap gets graded with a score that ranges from -2 to +2 which creates a total when all the plays are tallied that then gets normalised into a grade out of 100

so even if you make 3 massively important critical plays the highest those plays will score you cumulatively is +6 but every time you get caught in the wash or get drawn out of your zone that’s taking away from that score too

All offseason winks talked about not worrying that much if queen screws up as long as he screws up at 100 miles an hour because the worst thing he could do is doubt himself and hesitate - which means he’s going to screw up frequently but it also means he can make important plays in big moments and their impact won’t be reflected in the grade

it’s no secret that queen has struggled in coverage and every time that happens no matter whether the ball went in that direction or not he gets dinged by pff

it’s not a bad system necessarily but it’s important to understand the context of the grading to work out why it might not reflect what you think it should

especially with LB play where it’s so hard to be right on many plays and especially with the way we use LBs especially with the way we blitz

this sort of grading system is great for normalising OL grades and will probably help a ton more OL get all-pro votes and eventually hall of fame nominations too

but as with everything it’s a tool to analyse not the be-all-end-all

 

[rossihunter2]

I think his grade has suffered because of 2 really rough games earlier this year... particularly the Chiefs game in which he’d have probably graded negative if that was a thing. I think he’s been solid otherwise. Coverage has been a weak spot but there have been moments. Positive signs are there. I think he’s the exact type of guy that a full offseason would really help. Lots of responsibility in a complex defense.

yeah coverage is probably what’s dinged him most often in the pff grading system but I’m really happy with his rookie season so far

it would be hard to believe there are more than 3 or 4 rookie defenders who’ve made a bigger positive impact for their team than him

an offseason will definitely help - especially as his biggest issue in coverage (to me at least) has been him getting pulled out of his zones to easily and not having his head on a swivel and that’s exactly the sort of stuff that gets repped a ton in the non-contact optional OTAs

also want to see him be more consistent filling his gaps (but he’s way better at that now than he was earlier in the year)

 

[SepticeyePoe]

because of the way their grading system works - making big impact splash plays are less important than consistency

every single snap gets graded with a score that ranges from -2 to +2 which creates a total when all the plays are tallied that then gets normalised into a grade out of 100

so even if you make 3 massively important critical plays the highest those plays will score you cumulatively is +6 but every time you get caught in the wash or get drawn out of your zone that’s taking away from that score too

All offseason winks talked about not worrying that much if queen screws up as long as he screws up at 100 miles an hour because the worst thing he could do is doubt himself and hesitate - which means he’s going to screw up frequently but it also means he can make important plays in big moments and their impact won’t be reflected in the grade

it’s no secret that queen has struggled in coverage and every time that happens no matter whether the ball went in that direction or not he gets dinged by pff

it’s not a bad system necessarily but it’s important to understand the context of the grading to work out why it might not reflect what you think it should

especially with LB play where it’s so hard to be right on many plays and especially with the way we use LBs especially with the way we blitz

this sort of grading system is great for normalising OL grades and will probably help a ton more OL get all-pro votes and eventually hall of fame nominations too

but as with everything it’s a tool to analyse not the be-all-end-all

Ah, this makes sense. Thanks for explaining.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

i dont agree with that - we've been sending numbers for sure but no more than last year - and the blitz designs have been as amazing as ever - the stunts, the decisions to drop various guys from the LoS vs rushing DBs etc.

we're an aggressive defence because we want to control what the offence is doing - it was nice to see Wink be able to change it up when the offence against us doesnt fit that style of play and the losses in personnel made some things tougher

I wasn’t implying that we’ve changed anything up, just that since we’ve had wink we have really just been all blitz and I feel like we could stand to use more disguised coverages when the game calls for it, like the chiefs game

 

[JO_75]

Former NFL Defensive Tackle Louis Nix III shot while changing a tire. Hope whoever shot him gets the book thrown at him.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

because of the way their grading system works - making big impact splash plays are less important than consistency

every single snap gets graded with a score that ranges from -2 to +2 which creates a total when all the plays are tallied that then gets normalised into a grade out of 100

so even if you make 3 massively important critical plays the highest those plays will score you cumulatively is +6 but every time you get caught in the wash or get drawn out of your zone that’s taking away from that score too

All offseason winks talked about not worrying that much if queen screws up as long as he screws up at 100 miles an hour because the worst thing he could do is doubt himself and hesitate - which means he’s going to screw up frequently but it also means he can make important plays in big moments and their impact won’t be reflected in the grade

it’s no secret that queen has struggled in coverage and every time that happens no matter whether the ball went in that direction or not he gets dinged by pff

it’s not a bad system necessarily but it’s important to understand the context of the grading to work out why it might not reflect what you think it should

especially with LB play where it’s so hard to be right on many plays and especially with the way we use LBs especially with the way we blitz

this sort of grading system is great for normalising OL grades and will probably help a ton more OL get all-pro votes and eventually hall of fame nominations too

but as with everything it’s a tool to analyse not the be-all-end-all

I have never trusted their grading as far as coverage goes, OL grading is suspect too I thought, dont they struggle to properly grade combo blocks and don’t allocate their “points” appropriately on a lot of plays?

 

[cdp]

I have never trusted their grading as far as coverage goes, OL grading is suspect too I thought, dont they struggle to properly grade combo blocks and don’t allocate their “points” appropriately on a lot of plays?

As far as I know they don't splitt sacks when grading OL. In some cases like filmstudy does it makes more sense to allocate half or 3/4 sack which leads to a less biased grading.