10-7 is getting in the playoffs in the AFC. Jets will be supremely lucky to finish 10-7, and they're the 7 seed right now. Patriots aren't anywhere close to good enough to win 4/5, unless they get like a magical string of injury luck from their opponents. Patriots still play Cincy, Miami and Buffalo to finish the year.
Chargers are "mildly" concerning for me, but I don't think they can win 4/5 either. Their last three are pretty soft, but they play Miami and Tennessee next two weeks. I think they lose both.