Yup, now where we fall into this convo, is do we believe Lamar is worth what he’s gonna get? I do believe Lamar is the kinda qb who is able to live up to that contract and I feel pretty strongly that roster health and play calling have been an extreme dead weight for Lamar to try to carry around, but I think he is one of the rare qbs who can just carry a squad for a few weeks if needed, he’s done it time and time again.
I think he is too. Doesn't mean the Ravens are going to commit 4-5 years of gtd $ to him either. If he plays well, he'll get it all, no matter what he signs. But its basically Owners saying "I'm not Haslam". I'm not giving you $230M fully gtd for five years because you're not Mahomes and I don't know what I'll get out of it. Its great that I MIGHT get an MVP level performer, but its been 3 years since then and the Ravens don't have much to show for it.
It hasn't been 3 years since he was an MVP level performer.
To me it’s all about basic economics. Supply and demand. The demand for really good QB’s is always high, while supply is always low. Owners get desperate for that QB who they think can get them a championship. The salary structure is no longer based on merit, but rather potential. They have been doling out crazy money to guys like Watson and Murray for what? Yes they are good QB’s but they have not been difference makers if/when they get to the playoffs. I think the owners are beginning to say maybe we can win with a good but not great QB without paying a high percentage of their salary cap to one position.
Sure, because the first month of the year he looks good. I'm not really interested in whether or not he's an MVP player for a month. That doesn't do anything for me or anybody else.
Right, but I think the difference is in the last few years, it seems to me that supply is increasing.
I say this though as someone who made a lot of people mad at me for arguing this exact same position (I swear sometimes with you) about 5-6 months ago: it is going to take a GM with good job security to make that pick. If you pick a QB in the top 10 you are looking at around 30-40% chance to get a hit, aka find a guy on that level, which is probably more than you would have paying the guy and trying to find 2 hits at other positions (aka the 2 players you would be paying instead that you need to replace in the draft).
I agree. Job security is a factor.
And yes, we've argued this before. I'm not suggesting if a team drafts a Dak Prescott, that every five years they let him walk and draft somebody else. That's not the point of what I'm saying.
Except time has shown that owners are completely willing to let that happen. The only way for the QB market to come down is for some owners to make the decision, that is backed by the math, that they would rather trade their guy and start over then pay him an increasing amount. If you make that decision a trade is really the only way to do it as you want more than a 3rd round comp pick.
Right the supply may be increasing but is quality increasing? I mean I think we’re saying the same thing here. All those 10 QB’s have potential but most haven’t earned the right to a huge contract YET. So owners are paying for the potential not for what they have accomplished. Mahomes got a huge deal because he had won a SB before he got his deal. The demand for that special QB will always be high because guys like Mahomes, Brady, Rogers, Manning, etc. don’t come along very often. And guys like Picket, Murray, Lawrence, Watson etc. have potential but for what price?
Right, and I think long term, the league will establish what that "price" is. It won't be a 10% increase in QB contracts YoY every year.
I said, on average, over the last 5-6 years, there's 2-3 QBs that teams will end up with where they think, after a period of time, they can win a Lombardi with. That includes the Jones/Tua/Carr/Cousins types of the world, as well as the obvious elite guys.
Probably because he wants a raise. Though he is due $13.8M if he's on the roster, so not really sure what he's bitching about.
Exactly. He flaked on our offer. Took theirs and is probably looking for a new deal. I'm all for players getting their money but this is clown shit from the optics.
I imagine its also the fact that he's a potential cap casualty for them, and that he wants to be released now so he can get a jump start on FA. He can be one of the premier pass rushers on the market and be days ahead of others.
