2021 General Draft Thoughts

[Simba]

I’ve seen a few of these tweets this morning. Media is all in on the same guys because they haven’t been able to get as much info with everything being remote. Starting to get the influx of “expect surprises” tweets today as we usually do. But this year a lot of the analysts are saying that information that would typically be out a month or so ago is just now getting some run in the media circles.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Falcons should wait for the 49ers pick - who gets taken at 3 could change the demand or offers for their pick - no point them trading until they’re on the clock

Agree here. We're all just assuming that the team behind #3 are all comfortable with any of the top 5 QBs.

Maybe Denver really likes Mac Jones, and isn't as high on Fields or Lance. If so, there's no point in coming up to 4 or wherever if their guy isn't there.

In my opinion, there will be a gigantic "trying to move up" market for Justin Fields if he slides. I don't know if that's as true for Lance and especially Jones. Impossible to say right now, but if Mac Jones is the 49ers guy, I think there's a good chance they could have traded up to a lower spot to get him and given up less assets. I don't think they had to get to #3 for Jones, because I don't know that anybody is moving up into the top 5 for him.

I think they probably would have to jump somebody like Denver, and I think its possible, as others have suggested, that Jones could have simply fallen to #12 and they could have just taken him there.

 

[Simba]

So many rumors going on right now that a lot of teams are not high on Fields and that he could be sliding quite a bit. I have some concerns with his game, but that still seems crazy to me.

 

[rmcjacket23]

I’ve seen a few of these tweets this morning. Media is all in on the same guys because they haven’t been able to get as much info with everything being remote. Starting to get the influx of “expect surprises” tweets today as we usually do. But this year a lot of the analysts are saying that information that would typically be out a month or so ago is just now getting some run in the media circles.

I think there's a handful of teams every year who pick players nobody was expecting. I feel like Seattle does it all the time, I know Vegas has done it multiple times before, and I frankly am never surprised when the "board" doesn't play out a certain way. Inevitably, we end up with like 4-5 guys who were "mocked" to go in the top maybe 25 who will be sitting there at the top of day 2. Especially true later in the first round, where teams want to move up for that 5th year for players at expensive positions (like QB). A 6th QB going in the first round is firmly on my radar as a possibility.

What I'll be really interested in, as others have suggested, is how NFL teams evaluate these guys who opted out for 2020. You're talking about going back two years for game tape, very limited or non-existent workouts for these guys to showcase, practically no combine to speak of, etc. You're pretty much trusting somewhat stale game tape + virtual interviews for assessments.

Consensus from "analysts" is that it's unlikely to impact the high-end prospects, like a Penei Sewell, but it could impact guys going on day 2 or day 3. Teams might opt for guys who at least played some games in 2020.

 

[Simba]

Since Seattle was mentioned again, just another call back to one of my favorite draft moments... selecting Rashaad Penny. That pick was so universally hated that Carroll had to come out and lie and say that teams were calling them immediately after the pick to try to trade for Penny.

 

[rmcjacket23]

So many rumors going on right now that a lot of teams are not high on Fields and that he could be sliding quite a bit. I have some concerns with his game, but that still seems crazy to me.

I don't see paths where he falls outside the top 10. All the discussions about "slides" I think are probably a bit exaggerated. He's the 2nd best QB in the class for what I think, but him sliding to like #9 isn't a "slide" in my eyes. He's not getting the Aaron Rodgers or like Geno Smith slide.

All five QBs are going in the top 15. I think its a foregone conclusion. Any sort of slides that involves even one of these guys making it outside the top 10 is going to end quickly with a trade up. Washington, New England, Pittsburgh, Chicago are all going to be highly interested in trying to get whoever falls outside that range. And at that point, the price tag to come up isn't nearly as lucrative as moving into like the top 5.

 

[Simba]

I don't see paths where he falls outside the top 10. All the discussions about "slides" I think are probably a bit exaggerated. He's the 2nd best QB in the class for what I think, but him sliding to like #9 isn't a "slide" in my eyes. He's not getting the Aaron Rodgers or like Geno Smith slide.

All five QBs are going in the top 15. I think its a foregone conclusion. Any sort of slides that involves even one of these guys making it outside the top 10 is going to end quickly with a trade up. Washington, New England, Pittsburgh, Chicago are all going to be highly interested in trying to get whoever falls outside that range. And at that point, the price tag to come up isn't nearly as lucrative as moving into like the top 5.

According to the media today, him sliding outside of that range is a very real possibility. By no means saying I agree with it, but apparently teams are not sold on Fields and the media evaluations don’t match team evaluations.

With that being said, it could very much be a smokescreen.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Since Seattle was mentioned again, just another call back to one of my favorite draft moments... selecting Rashaad Penny. That pick was so universally hated that Carroll had to come out and lie and say that teams were calling them immediately after the pick to try to trade for Penny.

I'm quite certain that their last like 3 first rounds picks were largely "off the radar" for a lot of analysts. Penny certainly was. I don't think LJ Collier or Jordyn Brooks were high on a lot of people's lists in those spots either. They took Brooks over Patrick Queen (who a lot of people had going there).

Seattle is a lot like New England in recent memory. They do well pretty much every year, but some of their draft choices and philosophies are extremely questionable.

 

[rmcjacket23]

According to the media today, him sliding outside of that range is a very real possibility. By no means saying I agree with it, but apparently teams are not sold on Fields and the media evaluations don’t match team evaluations.

With that being said, it could very much be a smokescreen.

Yeah I mean people can evaluate how they want. I just don't see it.
If either Fields or Lance somehow slides outside the top 10, it won't last much longer after that. There are many teams who would want to come up to get a QB (Patriots, Raiders (my dark horse if Fields drops this far), Washington, Chicago, Pittsburgh). I don't see any way possible where like all 5 of those teams, who have certainly done due diligence on these QBs, are all like "no, we don't want them". At least one or more will, and there's some teams just outside the top 10, like the Giants especially, and Philadelphia, who could easily move back. They either have too many needs and want more picks (Philly) or no single pressing need that needs to be addressed (Giants). Even if 27 NFL teams were all like "yeah, we don't like Fields", I'll bet at least one of the 5 who does is in that group, and they will get him.

The only guy I see "sliding" beyond maybe top 10 is Mac Jones, and even then, he'll go in the top 20. He wouldn't get past NE, Vegas, Washington, and Chicago, who are all in that 15-20 range.

Vegas is kind of my "surprise" team to watch for in the QB mess. I think Gruden is about a year away from being done all together with Carr, and I think he wants to pick his guy. It might not happen this year, but if one of these guys (especially Fields) starts to get to like 8 or 9, I think Vegas may make a move.

 

[Simba]

I'm quite certain that their last like 3 first rounds picks were largely "off the radar" for a lot of analysts. Penny certainly was. I don't think LJ Collier or Jordyn Brooks were high on a lot of people's lists in those spots either. They took Brooks over Patrick Queen (who a lot of people had going there).

Seattle is a lot like New England in recent memory. They do well pretty much every year, but some of their draft choices and philosophies are extremely questionable.

Seattle is so bad at drafting that they literally had years where they were giving hints to their picks because they knew no one else would have the player they wanted that high. They draft based on scheme and not talent for the most part. Worked during the LOB era but it’s been a disaster ever since. I think Metcalf is one of a select few where they bucked that trend because the value was too good.

 

[rossihunter2]

I’ve seen a few of these tweets this morning. Media is all in on the same guys because they haven’t been able to get as much info with everything being remote. Starting to get the influx of “expect surprises” tweets today as we usually do. But this year a lot of the analysts are saying that information that would typically be out a month or so ago is just now getting some run in the media circles.

it was inevitable - the combine and pro days is normally where this all happens but the combine didn't happen and teams were only allowed to send 2 or 3 personnel to pro days

media werent getting access to nfl scouts that they normally would

 

[rossihunter2]

According to the media today, him sliding outside of that range is a very real possibility. By no means saying I agree with it, but apparently teams are not sold on Fields and the media evaluations don’t match team evaluations.

With that being said, it could very much be a smokescreen.

it is the most obvious smokescreen possible - no way the broncos pass on him if he's available

 

[rossihunter2]

The only guy I see "sliding" beyond maybe top 10 is Mac Jones, and even then, he'll go in the top 20. He wouldn't get past NE, Vegas, Washington, and Chicago, who are all in that 15-20 range.

see i think if mac jones falls outside of the top 10, there's a chance he could slide to the end of round 1
you're right that it's more likely the bears or washington pick him up - but with jones i could definitely see a scenario where he's still on the board after those teams pick

 

[Simba]

it was inevitable - the combine and pro days is normally where this all happens but the combine didn't happen and teams were only allowed to send 2 or 3 personnel to pro days

media werent getting access to nfl scouts that they normally would

I don’t remember who said it, but someone said that one of the biggest issues this year has been not being able to talk to scouts and execs face to face. Said that some of the good ones have learned to pick up info from the eyes and body language when you ask specific probing questions. Obviously, impossible to do that this year.

 

[Simba]

it is the most obvious smokescreen possible - no way the broncos pass on him if he's available

Its interesting since I used the Allbright tweet. He’s kind of a dick but has some pretty good connections, especially with Denver. He hasn’t said it outright but has made numerous allusions to the idea that they don’t like Fields that much. Has admitted that if they do take him, they’ll basically have pulled one over on him as well.

 

[rossihunter2]

Seattle is so bad at drafting that they literally had years where they were giving hints to their picks because they knew no one else would have the player they wanted that high. They draft based on scheme and not talent for the most part. Worked during the LOB era but it’s been a disaster ever since. I think Metcalf is one of a select few where they bucked that trend because the value was too good.

it worked because they had 3 great drafts in a row and fed off that for the best part of the decade
2010: Russell Okung, Earl Thomas, Golden Tate and Kam Chancellor
2011: KJ Wright, Richard Sherman, Byron Maxwell (they missed on early picks in this one and still hit 3 major hits all on day 3)
2012: Bruce Irvin, Bobby Wagner, Russell Wilson, Jeremy Lane, JR Sweezy

the amount of wasted/awful picks since is amazing
these are all the 1st picks they've made since 2012 (most recent first) N.B some of them are 2nd round picks:
2020: Jordyn Brooks (too early)
2019: LJ Collier
2018: Rashaad Penny
2017: Malik McDowell
2016: Germain Ifedi
2015: Frank Clark (hit)
2014: Paul Richardson (meh)
2013: Christine Michael

of those 8 players - at least 5 are busts, and only 1 a definite hit (and they traded him away a couple of years ago)

by my reckoning these are the only hits (or sort of hits) they've had since 2012:
2020: Damien Lewis (3rd round)
2019: DK Metcalf (2nd round)
2018: Will Dissly??? (4th round), Michael Dickson (5th round punter)
2017: Ethan Pocic (2nd round - probably drafting his replacement this year if they can), Shaq Griffin (3rd round), David Moore (7th round - never eclipsed 500yds in a season though), Chris Carson (7th round)
2016: Jarran Reed (2nd round), Quinton Jefferson (5th round)
2015: Frank Clark (2nd round), Ty Lockett (2nd round)
2014: Paul Richardson (2nd round), Justin Britt (2nd round)
2013: Luke Wilson (5th round)

that's pretty miserable reading - the only big hits in the last 5 drafts: Jarran Reed, Shaq Griffin, Dk Metcalf, Damien lewis

 

[rossihunter2]

I don’t remember who said it, but someone said that one of the biggest issues this year has been not being able to talk to scouts and execs face to face. Said that some of the good ones have learned to pick up info from the eyes and body language when you ask specific probing questions. Obviously, impossible to do that this year.

also a lot easier for guys to mis-speak or speak freer in a less structured environment like the combine - scouts and media and other scouts and coaches from different organisations would go out drinking and get dinner together each night + everyone's just walking around

and off the record lots of guys are having interesting conversations about different guys etc. some probably even talking through different impressions of the same prospects from their different interviews...

i get the impression that joe hortiz is probably a savant at playing that process effectively

 

[rossihunter2]

Its interesting since I used the Allbright tweet. He’s kind of a dick but has some pretty good connections, especially with Denver. He hasn’t said it outright but has made numerous allusions to the idea that they don’t like Fields that much. Has admitted that if they do take him, they’ll basically have pulled one over on him as well.

that's interesting - it's obvious they like someone - maybe Lance then...

 

[Simba]

that's interesting - it's obvious they like someone - maybe Lance then...

I do think it’s Lance if I had to guess. Seems like a lot of attention has turned to him in recent days.

Again, could very well be a smoke screen. But interesting nonetheless.

 

[rossihunter2]

this suggests to me that either sewell/slater are in play at 6 (and i did think it was pitts/sewell/chase at 6 for the dolphins - wildcard being waddle) or it suggests that at 18 they're confident they'll be able to get a tackle/IOL that they like