Next Up: vs Steelers

[RavensMania]

That was off of our bye week too I think. Hoping our offense turns the page similar to last year.

Also this might be purely anecdotal but I feel like the Ravens in the Harbaugh era usually don't do as well in October. Idk what the exact numbers are on that but I feel like we are shaky in October but turn it around in November and December.

I do believe you are right. We start out pretty well in September, come back to the pack in October and do well in November and December.

 

[UPennChem]

We've opened up - 5 according to Vegas. Which means we'd have been - 2 even if we were on the road. Straight up they think we're the better team. I'm just so shaky about this one. Excited though.

 

[ravenslord]

We've opened up - 5 according to Vegas. Which means we'd have been - 2 even if we were on the road. Straight up they think we're the better team. I'm just so shaky about this one. Excited though.

The eye test watching the Steelers yesterday tells me we are not as good as them ... at the moment .

Its not close either.

 

[OURavensFan]

The eye test watching the Steelers yesterday tells me we are not as good as them ... at the moment .

Its not close either.

Whoa, come on man.

I wouldn't go that far, Tennessee clearly has an inferior defense to us and they were all sorts of out of sync in that game. I also maintain Lamar Jackson > Ryan Tannehill

 

[organizedchaos21]

Kinda glad we play Pitt coming out of a bye. Usually we're really good after the bye week and something feels eerily similar about this year like last. I remember most of us didn't believe we'd beat Seattle coming out of the bye. I think there are some including myself who think it will be difficult to beat Pitt coming out of this bye. Regardless, I think the true nature of this team will be revealed on the near horizon. Here's to hoping

I expect no one thought they'd beat Seattle coming out of the 2019 bye.

That was off of our bye week too I think. Hoping our offense turns the page similar to last year.

Also this might be purely anecdotal but I feel like the Ravens in the Harbaugh era usually don't do as well in October. Idk what the exact numbers are on that but I feel like we are shaky in October but turn it around in November and December.

PFR moving to Stathead makes this harder, but I'm coming up with 23-25 in 48 October games for Harbaugh (2008-2020). 2 undefeated Octobers (2019, and 2020 so far). 2 winless Octobers (2009, 2016). Will write a scraper to confirm and check other months.

 

[rossihunter2]

The last undefeated team in the NFL coming into Baltimore in early November. Where have I seen that before?

it really does feel like a bit of a re-run doesnt it lol

 

[rossihunter2]

That was off of our bye week too I think. Hoping our offense turns the page similar to last year.

Also this might be purely anecdotal but I feel like the Ravens in the Harbaugh era usually don't do as well in October. Idk what the exact numbers are on that but I feel like we are shaky in October but turn it around in November and December.

that definitely does seem to be true - but it also seems to be a quirk of the way our schedule has always seemed to work

 

[organizedchaos21]

PFR moving to Stathead makes this harder, but I'm coming up with 23-25 in 48 October games for Harbaugh (2008-2020). 2 undefeated Octobers (2019, and 2020 so far). 2 winless Octobers (2009, 2016). Will write a scraper to confirm and check other months.

Harbaugh by month:

• September (.659) - 44 games
• October (.479) - 48 games
• November (.735) - 49 games
• December (.615) - 52 games
• January (.571) - 21 games
• February (1.000) - 1 games

Sums up to 0.619 in 215 games (includes 17 postseason games).

 

[rmcjacket23]

We've opened up - 5 according to Vegas. Which means we'd have been - 2 even if we were on the road. Straight up they think we're the better team. I'm just so shaky about this one. Excited though.

Well, that's not exactly how lines work.
1. We're still assuming home teams are getting 3 points for homefield advantage. In 2020, homefield advantage isn't really all that relevant.
2. If #1 is still true, and we were on the road, we'd be a 1 point underdog, not a 2 point favorite. It's a 6 point swing, not a 3 point swing.
We would theoretically be -2 if we played them on a neutral field.
3. Betting lines are designed to simply push betting action. Its not necessarily a reflection of how Vegas thinks the actual outcome of the game will go. If it was, they would never adjust the line, because nothing is going to happen during the week that's going to make the Ravens a bigger or smaller favorite.
They set a number to drive overall betting towards the minimum. For example, I can pretty much guarantee that the current line will come down closer to a FG before kickoff, because Pittsburgh will get a ton of the public betting action and may even get some big $ sharp action as well.

 

[rmcjacket23]

The eye test watching the Steelers yesterday tells me we are not as good as them ... at the moment .

Its not close either.

To a certain extent yes, but I still think Pittsburgh's offense is vastly overrated, and I think we're going to see that on Sunday. Haven't played much in terms of competent defenses. They were thoroughly unimpressive against Denver, who has a real defense. Everybody else they've played is average to below average on defense.

 

[rossihunter2]

Harbaugh by month:

• September (.659) - 44 games
• October (.479) - 48 games
• November (.735) - 49 games
• December (.615) - 52 games
• January (.571) - 21 games
• February (1.000) - 1 games

Sums up to 0.619 in 215 games (includes 17 postseason games).

there's all sorts of reasons why that could have happened but just looking at it like this that looks to be statistically significant to me... does that include the last 2 unbeaten octobers too helping bring that average up?

 

[organizedchaos21]

there's all sorts of reasons why that could have happened but just looking at it like this that looks to be statistically significant to me... does that include the last 2 unbeaten octobers too helping bring that average up?

Yes, it includes all games from 2008 through last Sunday. The Ravens have now won 6 consecutive games in October. It also includes 8 consecutive losses, starting with an OT loss to CLE on 2015-10-11 and culminating in the loss to PIT at home on 2017-10-01.

Controlling for home/away would probably be a good place to start looking for other explanations. Some measure of opponent difficulty would also be useful.

 

[RavensMania]

Harbaugh by month:

• September (.659) - 44 games
• October (.479) - 48 games
• November (.735) - 49 games
• December (.615) - 52 games
• January (.571) - 21 games
• February (1.000) - 1 games

Sums up to 0.619 in 215 games (includes 17 postseason games).

that's a pretty damn good winning percentage over 12+ seasons, especially without an elite QB until now, imo

 

[JAAM]

Harbaugh by month:

• September (.659) - 44 games
• October (.479) - 48 games
• November (.735) - 49 games
• December (.615) - 52 games
• January (.571) - 21 games
• February (1.000) - 1 games

Sums up to 0.619 in 215 games (includes 17 postseason games).

That February one is my favorite

 

[ravenslord]

I hope we can contain the Steelers short passing game. Its pretty efficient and their backs and receivers are getting open.

 

[organizedchaos21]

that's a pretty damn good winning percentage over 12+ seasons, especially without an elite QB until now, imo

He's a good coach. One of the best in the NFL.

 

[redrum52]

The defense doesn't worry me this game. Much more confident in them with the addition of Yannick. Very concerned about the offense.

 

[UPennChem]

Well, that's not exactly how lines work.
1. We're still assuming home teams are getting 3 points for homefield advantage. In 2020, homefield advantage isn't really all that relevant.
2. If #1 is still true, and we were on the road, we'd be a 1 point underdog, not a 2 point favorite. It's a 6 point swing, not a 3 point swing.
We would theoretically be -2 if we played them on a neutral field.
3. Betting lines are designed to simply push betting action. Its not necessarily a reflection of how Vegas thinks the actual outcome of the game will go. If it was, they would never adjust the line, because nothing is going to happen during the week that's going to make the Ravens a bigger or smaller favorite.
They set a number to drive overall betting towards the minimum. For example, I can pretty much guarantee that the current line will come down closer to a FG before kickoff, because Pittsburgh will get a ton of the public betting action and may even get some big $ sharp action as well.

Totally understand points 1 and 3. And I I definitely just made a simple error with the math this morning. In total though, I think it's going to be a close low scoring game.

 

[rossihunter2]

The defense doesn't worry me this game. Much more confident in them with the addition of Yannick. Very concerned about the offense.

cam heyward and stephon tuitt and even tyson alualu (who??? - who's looked great so far this year) are going to be a real problem vs our interior OL

they would be a problem even against last year's interior OL even with Yanda...

and that's obviously not even including TJ Watt and Bud Dupree vs Ronnie and Orlando on the outside

 

[JoeyFlex5]

I hope we can contain the Steelers short passing game. Its pretty efficient and their backs and receivers are getting open.

I could be wrong but it felt like claypool got a lot of extra attention because Ben wasn’t even looking his way, but juju and Johnson were eating all day and they were getting wide open.

I feel like with our top 3 corners we should handle that area fairly well. I’m much more worried about our offense this week