2022 General Draft Thoughts

[UPennChem]

I've been doing some mock draft simulators and it's becoming increasingly clear that we probably can't get 5 impact guys at positions of need that can contribute in some capacity this year with the picks we have as is.

You're not gonna just stay put at each spot and hope to get that I don't think. That's not to suggest that I think we aren't going to be making trades. My only point is, we're going to have to trade down and make something like 12 or 13 picks, or we're gonna have to trade up multiple times and make like 6 picks.

You just can't get something like the following:

2 quality CBs
2 quality EDGEs
1 quality ILB
1 quality DL
1 quality LT
1 TE
1 RB

So to imagine the Ravens trading up and limiting their picks to key in on a select few guys seems asinine. Therefore I'm already prepared for the trade down at 14. I can feel it in my veins, just without a doubt.

 

[JAAM]

this dude always doing something to disrespect the opposition

Holy shit this is great lol

 

[Simba]

I've been doing some mock draft simulators and it's becoming increasingly clear that we probably can't get 5 impact guys at positions of need that can contribute in some capacity this year with the picks we have as is.

You're not gonna just stay put at each spot and hope to get that I don't think. That's not to suggest that I think we aren't going to be making trades. My only point is, we're going to have to trade down and make something like 12 or 13 picks, or we're gonna have to trade up multiple times and make like 6 picks.

You just can't get something like the following:

2 quality CBs
2 quality EDGEs
1 quality ILB
1 quality DL
1 quality LT
1 TE
1 RB

So to imagine the Ravens trading up and limiting their picks to key in on a select few guys seems asinine. Therefore I'm already prepared for the trade down at 14. I can feel it in my veins, just without a doubt.

I don't think they'd ever expect to get impact players with every single pick. I too would doubt the trade up but it's not with the idea that they need to hit every single position where the conceivably have a hole. EDC said as much that there are going to be some cheap 1 year vets that come in to hold down the fort post-draft.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

Have there been many players thats been traded up for and turned out to be a bust? Im talking 1st rnd trade ups for middle to early picks?

Marcus Davenport hasn’t been worth the trade up.

 

[RavensMania]

Marcus Davenport hasn’t been worth the trade up.

very true as well

 

[UPennChem]

I don't think they'd ever expect to get impact players with every single pick. I too would doubt the trade up but it's not with the idea that they need to hit every single position where the conceivably have a hole. EDC said as much that there are going to be some cheap 1 year vets that come in to hold down the fort post-draft.

Right I completely agree. It's never been the case that we don't follow our BPA and the supplement after the draft. The greater idea I'm making here is EDC has let a bunch of guys go that he definitely didn't have to. Then look at Melvin Gordon speculation. Look at the DK speculation. EDC doesn't want to spend draft picks on offense this year. That tells me he's looking to maximize the defensive influx this year. To do that given that he in an ideal world would probably want 6 guys, is gonna need to maneuver, most likely stock piling and pouncing at the right times.

 

[Simba]

Right I completely agree. It's never been the case that we don't follow our BPA and the supplement after the draft. The greater idea I'm making here is EDC has let a bunch of guys go that he definitely didn't have to. Then look at Melvin Gordon speculation. Look at the DK speculation. EDC doesn't want to spend draft picks on offense this year. That tells me he's looking to maximize the defensive influx this year. To do that given that he in an ideal world would probably want 6 guys, is gonna need to maneuver, most likely stock piling and pouncing at the right times.

But isn't that kind of contradictory? Like yeah, it seems like he wants to have a strong defensive draft but that doesn't mean he won't trade up in theory. Sure, some guys have walked but let's not pretend there are tons of others still out on the market just like them.

I guess my main point is that I wouldn't put it so matter of factly. The chances of trading up like that are slim if you look at history, but I don't think anything that we've done or not done in FA says that we won't do so.

 

[cdp]

Have there been many players thats been traded up for and turned out to be a bust? Im talking 1st rnd trade ups for middle to early picks?

I don't remember the details for every trade but here a couple of "busts" who were picked early. I listed only players who were awful, sure there have been guys who didn't live up to what their team had to give up on in terms of picks. But that's kind of difficult to argue because some GMs are just smarter.
In addition to Ravensmania:
- Sam Darnold
- Josh Rosen
- Sammy Watkins
- Justin Gilbert
- Dion Jordan
- Tavon Austin
- Trent Richardson
- Justin Blackmon

 

[UPennChem]

But isn't that kind of contradictory? Like yeah, it seems like he wants to have a strong defensive draft but that doesn't mean he won't trade up in theory. Sure, some guys have walked but let's not pretend there are tons of others still out on the market just like them.

I guess my main point is that I wouldn't put it so matter of factly. The chances of trading up like that are slim if you look at history, but I don't think anything that we've done or not done in FA says that we won't do so.

Its just absolutely the case that anything is possible. I'm really not trying to put it matter of factly. I guess simply I just think the moves Eric has made are set up to have a defensive heavy draft. Given that there are a lot of holes still on the defense, I'd be inclined to believe that he'd want more picks rather than fewer. That's all

 

[rossihunter2]

I've been doing some mock draft simulators and it's becoming increasingly clear that we probably can't get 5 impact guys at positions of need that can contribute in some capacity this year with the picks we have as is.

You're not gonna just stay put at each spot and hope to get that I don't think. That's not to suggest that I think we aren't going to be making trades. My only point is, we're going to have to trade down and make something like 12 or 13 picks, or we're gonna have to trade up multiple times and make like 6 picks.

You just can't get something like the following:

2 quality CBs
2 quality EDGEs
1 quality ILB
1 quality DL
1 quality LT
1 TE
1 RB

So to imagine the Ravens trading up and limiting their picks to key in on a select few guys seems asinine. Therefore I'm already prepared for the trade down at 14. I can feel it in my veins, just without a doubt.

idk that we need to find 5 impact players that way - but if they decided to trade down in R1 or R2 to pick up another day 3 pick - i think it would be incredibly beneficial to pick 5 times in the first 100 picks

obviously in an ideal world we fill all our needs with high quality players in the draft but in reality that's unrealistic - if we can find 2 or 3 instant starters (or equivalent to) and a bunch of early contributors and developmental prospects then we're golden - think the only position we cant afford not to pick in the first 2 days is CB, obviously would be ideal to hit on an EDGE in the early parts of the draft too (but ultimately not the end of the world if we dont albeit it would be surprising given the strength of the class) - and while it would be great to find 2 CBs and 2 EDGEs at the top of the draft, the double dip doesn't have to be early - but i think you're right that it would be troubling if we ended up entering day 3 without adding young talent at both of those positions

LB and LT dont have to necessarily be early picks - if they are then great but no reason that they have to be

DT - it would be great to find one but with the pierce signing and calais re-signing we're not desperate if the board doesnt fall the right way for us to take one

TE/RB are gonna be day 3 things and that's not an issue - we've got 5 4th rounders and i expect at least 1 to be either a TE or a RB and it's just our luck that both those classes are strong on day 3

 

[rossihunter2]

Its just absolutely the case that anything is possible. I'm really not trying to put it matter of factly. I guess simply I just think the moves Eric has made are set up to have a defensive heavy draft. Given that there are a lot of holes still on the defense, I'd be inclined to believe that he'd want more picks rather than fewer. That's all

and i think that's a fair mode of thinking
but i think it's also worth noting that EDC hasnt hidden the fact that he wants to make more than 10 picks in this draft

we're building/have built an offence that can compete with basically any offence in the league - the idea doesnt necessarily have to be that we have no holes on defence anywhere (that's just unrealistic), but the best complementary defence is one that is opportunistic and maybe they aren't consistently dominant but they have enough playmakers at high value positions that they can create turnovers and errors and steal positions or steal points etc.

with the offence they've constructed, they dont necessarily need the 2011 defence and they've already got 3 high quality play-makers on the backend, and 2 guys in the front 7 they hope are ascending playmakers also (queen and oweh), as well as some complementary pieces who add value too - if they can add another couple of guys basically anywhere on the defence then it looks a dangerous unit even if it's not as deep as we'd hope or doesn't have high quality starters at every spot... they've just got to find enough guys that you cant just scheme them all out of the game or avoid them

 

[rossihunter2]

Have there been many players thats been traded up for and turned out to be a bust? Im talking 1st rnd trade ups for middle to early picks?

RGIII
Sammy Watkins
justin gilbert
goff
wentz
leonard floyd
Trubisky
Darnold
Rosen
Marcus Davenport (not really a bust but definitely not worth 2 1st round picks lol)
Devin Bush (maybe... we'll see i guess)

and we'll have to see what happens with the top of 2021 trade ups:
Trey Lance
Jaylen Waddle
Devonta Smith
Justin Fields
Alijah Vera-Tucker

 

[rossihunter2]

checking out the injuries i imagine
he just feels like a raven - if we could trade down and land him that would be unreal

 

[RavensMania]

idk that we need to find 5 impact players that way - but if they decided to trade down in R1 or R2 to pick up another day 3 pick - i think it would be incredibly beneficial to pick 5 times in the first 100 picks

obviously in an ideal world we fill all our needs with high quality players in the draft but in reality that's unrealistic - if we can find 2 or 3 instant starters (or equivalent to) and a bunch of early contributors and developmental prospects then we're golden - think the only position we cant afford not to pick in the first 2 days is CB, obviously would be ideal to hit on an EDGE in the early parts of the draft too (but ultimately not the end of the world if we dont albeit it would be surprising given the strength of the class) - and while it would be great to find 2 CBs and 2 EDGEs at the top of the draft, the double dip doesn't have to be early - but i think you're right that it would be troubling if we ended up entering day 3 without adding young talent at both of those positions

LB and LT dont have to necessarily be early picks - if they are then great but no reason that they have to be

DT - it would be great to find one but with the pierce signing and calais re-signing we're not desperate if the board doesnt fall the right way for us to take one

TE/RB are gonna be day 3 things and that's not an issue - we've got 5 4th rounders and i expect at least 1 to be either a TE or a RB and it's just our luck that both those classes are strong on day 3

This is one of the better day 3 RB classes in recent memory and the same with TEs. Lot of talented players that could be very producted in the NFL.

 

[Deebo813]

I don't remember the details for every trade but here a couple of "busts" who were picked early. I listed only players who were awful, sure there have been guys who didn't live up to what their team had to give up on in terms of picks. But that's kind of difficult to argue because some GMs are just smarter.
In addition to Ravensmania:
- Sam Darnold
- Josh Rosen
- Sammy Watkins
- Justin Gilbert
- Dion Jordan
- Tavon Austin
- Trent Richardson
- Justin Blackmon

I couldnt think of any for some reason.. im getting old

 

[rossihunter2]

This is one of the better day 3 RB classes in recent memory and the same with TEs. Lot of talented players that could be very producted in the NFL.

only question for me with the RBs and TEs is when does the run start... because there will be one

 

[rossihunter2]

I couldnt think of any for some reason.. im getting old

haha no worries - tbf, an overwhelmingly large number of the trade up misses are for QBs - that said just purely anecdotally looking back over the last few years it seems to me like the guys you trade up for bust at the same kind of rate as the guys you stick and pick for and the guys you trade down for

if you're trading up for someone, they'd better be a QB or they'd better be someone who your club has zero doubts about as an elite player... otherwise it's hard to justify it as worth it

 

[Deebo813]

haha no worries - tbf, an overwhelmingly large number of the trade up misses are for QBs - that said just purely anecdotally looking back over the last few years it seems to me like the guys you trade up for bust at the same kind of rate as the guys you stick and pick for and the guys you trade down for

if you're trading up for someone, they'd better be a QB or they'd better be someone who your club has zero doubts about as an elite player... otherwise it's hard to justify it as worth it

If we trade up for stingley i wouldnt even be mad if he ended up a bust

 

[marklar]

haha no worries - tbf, an overwhelmingly large number of the trade up misses are for QBs - that said just purely anecdotally looking back over the last few years it seems to me like the guys you trade up for bust at the same kind of rate as the guys you stick and pick for and the guys you trade down for

if you're trading up for someone, they'd better be a QB or they'd better be someone who your club has zero doubts about as an elite player... otherwise it's hard to justify it as worth it

I think a lot of people get hung up on the JJ chart and think that it correlates directly to the value you get out of a draft pick. The trade value chart is kind of a fictional thing where the value is there *if and only if* there is one team that's in love with a prospect (trade-up team) and another that's is not as infatuated with the same player. In most scenarios, there isn't such a case, and I'd be willing to bet money that the "career average value" metric diff is nowhere near the JJ chart (and shouldn't be).
For example, it was said somewhere that the difference between the Ravens getting pick 14 and pich 18 was sth like a 3rd rounder in trade value. Which makes sense if the team at 18 really want a player at 14. But if you'd take the career value (or value of the first 5 years) of all 14th picks and all 18th picks, I find it unlikely that diffs by more than if you add on that specific 3rd rounder's career value to the 18th pick (*).
I.e. trading up makes sense if you have a perfect system fit there and think someone else will snatch him from you, but trading up because you'd get a slightly better player is probably seldom worth it.

(*) that would make for an interesting study, but I can't be arsed to do it myself so my "facts" are purely grabbed out of my rear end

 

[rossihunter2]

I think a lot of people get hung up on the JJ chart and think that it correlates directly to the value you get out of a draft pick. The trade value chart is kind of a fictional thing where the value is there *if and only if* there is one team that's in love with a prospect (trade-up team) and another that's is not as infatuated with the same player. In most scenarios, there isn't such a case, and I'd be willing to bet money that the "career average value" metric diff is nowhere near the JJ chart (and shouldn't be).
For example, it was said somewhere that the difference between the Ravens getting pick 14 and pich 18 was sth like a 3rd rounder in trade value. Which makes sense if the team at 18 really want a player at 14. But if you'd take the career value (or value of the first 5 years) of all 14th picks and all 18th picks, I find it unlikely that diffs by more than if you add on that specific 3rd rounder's career value to the 18th pick (*).
I.e. trading up makes sense if you have a perfect system fit there and think someone else will snatch him from you, but trading up because you'd get a slightly better player is probably seldom worth it.

(*) that would make for an interesting study, but I can't be arsed to do it myself so my "facts" are purely grabbed out of my rear end

JJ chart is guilty of over-valuing high picks vs their ultimate resulting value

i think you'll find, if you look hard enough, that those studies already exist - pretty sure EDC has referenced those exact types of studies when talking about the value of trading up and down and that it would take a ridiculous type talent to fall for us to give up capital to get them in round 1